Our Vice President Research, Neil Shah will be speaking in an upcoming virtual workshop ‘5G-enabled IoT: Will RedCap help Deliver on the Promise of Digital Transformation?‘
The workshop is the result of collaboration between RCR Wireless News and VIAVI Solutions.
Title: 5G-enabled IoT: Will RedCap help Deliver on the Promise of Digital Transformation? Date: Tuesday, November 14, 2023 Time: 2PM ET
Summary:
The grand vision of 5G propelling us into a fully interconnected world of IoT and digital transformation hasn’t fully materialized yet, With RedCap, the streamlined, cost-effective version of 5G designed to cater to various IoT services, we might be on the brink of change.
With RedCap poised to open up the 5G-enabled IoT device market and better support a wide range of impactful use cases, what comes next? Will operators, NEPs, device OEMs, integrators and end users come together to drive digital transformation, or will the IoT promise remain just that?
Counterpoint Research is attending the 22nd Annual Canadian Telecom Summit from 6th to 8th November 2023
Our Research Analyst, Emily Herbert will be attending the 22nd Annual Canadian Telecom Summit at The International Centre, Toronto, Canada. You can schedule a meeting with her to discuss the latest trends in the technology, media and telecommunication sector and understand how our leading research and services can help your business.
When: 6th to 8th November 2023
Where: The International Centre, Toronto, Canada
About the Annual Canadian Telecom Summit:
The Canadian Telecom Summit is Canada’s leading ICT event, attracting the most influential people who shape the future direction of communications and information technology in Canada. For 3 full days, The Canadian Telecom Summit delivers thought-provoking presentations from the thought leaders of the industry.
The theme for the 2023 Canadian Telecom Summit is: Breaking Barriers – Collaboration for Accelerated Digital Innovation Across Telecom, Enterprise, and Society.
Click here (or send us an email at contact@counterpointresearch.com) to schedule a meeting with her.
The adoption of eSIM (embedded SIM) across consumer and IoT applications will soon reach an inflection point. This offers new opportunities for MNOs, infrastructure providers, system integrators and other potential stakeholders to operate their own eSIM RSP (Remote SIM Provisioning) platforms and exercise full control over eSIM RSP management and services.
With growing geopolitical shifts and newer applications such as Private 5G Networks, having full data sovereignty and control is becoming imperative for the eSIM RSP platform users. Further, having a certain degree of autonomy can help the eSIM RSP platform owners shape business and pricing models and differentiate even more compared to the eSIM-as-a-Service solutions out there.
This whitepaper deep dives into different forms of eSIM Management solutions and documents the rise of “off-the-shelf” eSIM RSP Software and the emergence of key players like achelos GmbH who are well positioned to adapt to changing market requirements.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Infographic: Mobile Market Monitor (Q1 and Q2 2023)
Global Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q3 2021 – Q2 2023)
China Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q1 2022 – Q2 2023)
US Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q1 2022 – Q2 2023)
India Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q1 2022 – Q2 2023)
Counterpoint Research is attending Fyuz Summit from 9th to 11th October 2023
Our Associate Director, Gareth Owen will be attending the Fyuz Summit 2023 at Madrid, Spain. You can schedule a meeting with him to discuss the latest trends in the technology, media and telecommunication sector and understand how our leading research and services can help your business.
When: 9th – 11th October 2023
Where: Palacio de Congresos. IFEMA, Madrid
About the event:
Discover a future of connectivity taking root, growing, and flourishing at the event held in Madrid from the 9th to 11th October 2023. Join industry enthusiasts and professionals to explore how open and disaggregated networks are reshaping the telecommunications landscape and facilitating the deployment of advanced connectivity solutions.
Key Topics Discussed:
Open RAN
OpenWifi
Open Optical & Packet Transport
TIP Academy
Metaverse-Ready Networks
Click here (or send us an email at contact@counterpointresearch.com) to schedule a meeting with him.
realme led the market with a 21% share, followed closely by Samsung at 20%.
Shipments in the $200-$400 and $400-$600 price bands 22% and 24% YoY respectively.
Premium (>$600) smartphone shipments witnessed a 14% YoY growth.
In the $200-$400 price band, 5G smartphone shipments increased by 20% YoY.
Jakarta, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – May 26, 2023
Smartphone shipments in the Philippines experienced a decline of 9% YoY in Q1 2023, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Monthly Philippines Smartphone Tracker. The decline was driven by high inflation during the quarter, which impacted consumer sentiment and purchasing power. Q1 2023 also saw high inventory levels as fewer consumers bought smartphones after the festival season in Q4 2022 and as inflation climbed up.
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding
During the quarter, realme captured 21% of the market to overtake Samsung as the top brand. The major reason for this was Samsung’s 33% YoY decline, which helped realme reach the top spot. Other factors included offers on realme’s C series smartphones as part of its Lazada 2.2 sale. The realme 10 was also one of the top-performing models for the brand. Samsung’s Galaxy A14 5G, A04 and A04e were the best performers for the brand. But due to high inventory levels, Samsung’s overall shipments decreased.
The brands which witnessed YoY growth included Infinix (59%), Xiaomi (22%) and Apple (22%). Infinix’s Hot series was particularly popular in the gaming world. For Xiaomi, the 12 series and Redmi’s A series proved to be popular, driving growth for the brand. Despite inflationary pressures, Apple registered a YoY growth due to the popularity of the iPhone 14 series in the country.
Smartphones priced less than $200 held more than half of the market shipments in Q1 2023.holding a combined share of almost 60%. Shipments in the $200-$400 and $400-$600 price bands saw a decline of 22% and 24% respectively. Many prospective consumers held on to their existing models and avoided any discretionary expenditure. OPPO led the $400-$600 band due to the popularity of the Reno 8T. Introductory offers for the Reno 8T, like free OPPO EncoBuds 2, worked in its favour. Other offers in Q1 2023, such as the Payday Sale, Super Brand Day and 2.2 Sale, are likely to have made OPPO smartphones more attractive for consumers. Premium segments (above $600) saw a 14% YoY increase in shipments driven by the iPhone 14 series.
5G smartphones recorded a positive YoY growth at 14%. It is particularly relevant to note that the 5G smartphones in the $200-$400 price band witnessed a 20% YoY growth along with an increase in their share in the band. This also implies that 5G smartphone shipments are becoming the norm as compared to LTE smartphones whose YoY sales reduced by 17%.
Telecom operators are adapting accordingly. Smart was the top operator for 5G services in the Philippines in Q1 2023. To provide 5G internet with satcom support, Smart and Omnispace have teamed together. Globe has reportedly managed to expand the reach of its 5G network to 70 cities.
Outlook
In Q1 2023, the Philippines recorded an economic growth of 6.4%, lower than the 7.1% in Q1 2022. However, since we are seeing signs of stabilizing inflation, we expect a flattish market in the coming months. The trend towards premiumization is expected to continue into the next quarter. 5G penetration is also expected to increase as OEMs are likely to launch more 5G smartphones in the mid-segment.
This research note is based on preliminary data and subject to change. Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for any questions regarding this note or other insights.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in technology, media, and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Analyst Contacts
Glen Cardoza
Abdul Rehman
Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com
2022 was a record-breaking year for NXP with solid profit growth and healthy free cash flow generation.
Accelerated growth drivers (except UWB) are on track within the expected revenue growth range (∼25%) to help take NXP’s total revenue to $15 billion by 2024.
For Q1 2023, the company expects revenue of about $3 billion. This would mean a deceleration of 4% YoY with a 9% downside sequentially.
NXP Semiconductors reported record revenues of $13.21 billion in 2022, a yearly growth of 19.4% on account of increased revenues in all end markets, unprecedented design wins across the entire portfolio and higher pricing (due to input cost inflation). Automotive and core IoT markets witnessed robust demand throughout 2022, outstripping the company’s supply capabilities. Consumer IoT and mobile markets experienced softening demand environment in the latter half of the year. In Q4 2022, NXP delivered revenues of $3.31 billion, up 9% YoY and down 4% QoQ. The Q4 revenues were $12 million better than the midpoint of the guidance with all markets performing in line or better than expected except the communication and infrastructure segment. The full-year non-GAAP gross profit was $7.64 billion with non-GAAP gross margin standing at 57.9%, an increase of 180 basis points YoY due to higher internal factory utilization and follow-through on higher revenues.
Automotive
NXP’s automotive business captured 52.1% of the total revenue in 2022, an increase of 2.4% from the previous year. Revenue for the full year stood at $6.88 billion, a yearly growth of 25.2%. This growth was driven by higher pricing, record customer design wins (for xEV solutions – battery management solutions, inverter controls, other xEV control processors, etc.), and strong traction of company-product drivers owing to accelerated content increases within xEVs and premium car models.
Q4 revenues were $1.81 billion, up 17% YoY and flat QoQ, in line with the company’s guidance. Due to supply constraints, NXP couldn’t ship more in Q4.
NXP emphasized on its auto-specific accelerated growth drivers, which will help it with increased yearly revenues in the future. They include 77-gigahertz radar solutions, electrification systems, and the S32 domain and zonal processors. Customer enthusiasm for S32 processors continues to grow, far exceeding expectations. A major automotive OEM has selected the S32 family of automotive processors and microcontrollers for use across its fleet of vehicles beginning next decade.
In Q4, NXP introduced the high-performance S32K39 series MCUs for electrification applications like traction inverter control, BMS and OBC, and announced its collaboration with Delta Electronics in which the latter will utilize NXP’s S32 automotive platform and S32K39 MCUs to develop next-generation EV platforms. At the CES this year, it unveiled the SAF85xxSoC, the industry’s first 28-nanometer RFCMOS radar one-chip IC family for ADAS applications.
For Q1 2023 revenues, the company is estimating this segment to be up in the mid-teens and flattish on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. Increased global automotive production and growing penetration of xEVs would prove beneficial for future revenue growth.
Industrial & IoT
The industrial and IoT segment’s revenue for 2022 was $2.71 billion, up 13% YoY. The growth can be attributed to higher pricing and demand for its industrial processors, and analog, connectivity, and security solutions. Specifically, its secure connected edge solutions (accelerated growth driver), which include both crossover and i.MX application familiesofprocessors, grew nearly 50% YoY in 2022.
Q4 revenues were better than their earlier guidance at $605 million, down 8% YoY and 15% QoQ respectively. Due to lockdowns in China and uncertain macro conditions, consumer-exposed IoT businesses saw a deceleration in revenue.
In Q4, the company launched its new analog front-end (N-AFE) family of devices targeting industrial applications, specifically software-defined factories. It will help with high-precision data acquisition and condition monitoring systems for factory automation. Schneider Electric is incorporating the N-AFE family in its industrial solutions. NXP also launched MCX N series MCUs for secure intelligent edge industrial and IoT applications and expanded its portfolio of end-to-end Matter solutions by announcing the RW612 and K32W148 wireless MCUs. Both are targeted toward smart home applications such as garage doors, thermostats, smart plugs, and smart lighting.
For Q1 2023, the industrial and IoT segment is expected to be in the negative territory in both YoY (low 30% range) and QoQ (low 20% range) terms. The core industrial business remains supply constrained in some areas while consumer IoT is expected to experience cyclical weakness in demand and potential correction of customer inventory.
Mobile
For 2022, Mobile segment revenues stood at $1.61 billion, an increment of 14% YoY due to higher pricing and continued traction of the secure mobile wallet.
In Q4, it reported revenues of $408 million, up 9% YoY and down 0.5% QoQ, and faring better than the company’s guidance. As observed in the previous quarter, weakness in the Android mobile market continued to persist, affecting the largely channel-driven mobile business.
NXP’s mobile segment-specific accelerated growth driver Ultra-Wideband (UWB) was below the expected revenue growth range since NXP’s UWB solutions are aimed at the Android market, which is experiencing softening demand. However, the company is optimistic about this growth driver in the near future as it continues to build out its ecosystem and register more design wins both in the mobile and automotive sectors.
For Q1 2023, NXP is expecting this segment to be down in the mid-40% range both in YoY and QoQ terms. The mobile segment is dependent on a cyclical rebound and is expected to improve performance as and when the Android handset market fares better.
Communication infrastructure and other
The ‘communication infrastructure and other’ segment’s revenue in 2022 was $2 billion, up 15% YoY. This growth was driven by higher pricing and sales of in-demand solutions like network processors, secure transit and access products and RF-powered products for the cellular base station market.
Q4 revenues stood at $494 million, up 8% YoY but down 5% QoQ and below the company’s guidance. Weakness in this quarter had nothing to do with demand but was primarily due to operational issues and supply constraints.
NXP’s accelerated growth driver – RF power amplifiers – was on track as per its expected revenue growth range. The industry transition from LDMOS technology to gallium nitride happened faster than expected and the company’s revenue doubled YoY with respect to gallium nitride-based solutions. However, the demand continues to outstrip even its increasing supply capabilities.
In January 2023, NXP launched a new wideband GaN RF transistor – MMRF5018HS – primarily for aerospace and defense communications.
For Q1 2023, the guidance expects the revenues to be flat both in YoY and QoQ terms. NXP will try to improve its supply capabilities to cater to the pent-up demand in RFID packing solutions, e-government identification, 5G base station market build-out especially in India, and more.
Capex overview and inventory
Cash flow from operations stood at $3.9 billion in 2022. Net capex investments were $1.06 billion or 8% of overall revenue, a 1% jump from the previous year. Due to softening demand in consumer-oriented markets, internal front-end utilization rates have dropped for non-auto industrial products. From running in the high 90s in Q3 to touching 90% in Q4 2022 and in Q1 2023, it is expected to go down to 85%. Despite this, NXP is confident of keeping its gross margin within its long-term range of 55%-58% as it has a disciplined inventory management approach and a better grip on its cost structure, which is more variable in nature now than it was in past.
NXP continues to face shortages in certain nodes and other technologies like 180 nanometers, 9055 gallium nitride and the high-voltage analog mixed-signal (which are proprietary to NXP). This can lead to significant customer escalations which the company hopes will moderate by the end of this year. However, it remains optimistic about its supply capabilities in the future as its ability to cater to risk-adjusted backlog has gone up from 85% in 2022 to 90%-95% in 2023.
DOI has increased to 116 days, a 17-day sequential increment, and distribution channel inventory has been deliberately restricted to 1.6 months as opposed to its long-term target of 2.5 months. China’s market is experiencing weaker sell-through and NXP is being prudent about shipping more in the channel as it might not meet the true end demand and lead to an unnecessary inventory build-up. Since more than 50% of the company’s revenue goes through the channel, it is taking a very vigilant inventory management approach and keeping more than enough products in hand to fill the channel as and when required.
Conclusion
Input cost inflation due to supply chain constraints led to higher pricing for NXP solutions in 2022, a trend that will continue this year as well. Dynamic macro trends continue to pose an uncertain general demand environment and a potential rebound in the Chinese market could significantly improve end markets’ revenues, which is why managing internal and channel inventory is an important topic for the company. Overall, NXP is prepared for market uncertainties and will continue to execute diligently on its accelerated growth drivers and be disciplined with its operating expenses while protecting long-term R&D investments.
NXP’s Q3 2022 revenues were $20 million more than the midpoint of the company’s previous guidance. The automotive, mobile and communication infrastructure segments performed better than expected. But the consumer-exposed IoT and Android mobile segments experienced weakness.
NCNR order book continued to surpass NXP’s 2023 supply capabilities.
For Q4, the company expects revenue of about $3.3 billion (± $100 million). This would mean an increment of 9% YoY with 4% downside sequentially. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 57.8% (± 50 bp) and operating expenses are expected to be near $720 million (± $10 million).
NXP reported revenues of $3.45 billion in Q3 2022, an increase of 20.4% YoY and 4% QoQ, and $20 million more than the midpoint of the company’s previous guidance. NXP’s automotive, mobile and communication infrastructure segments performed well compared to Q2, while the industrial and IoT segment struggled. Specifically, the consumer-exposed IoT business, accounting for almost 40% of revenue, experienced weaker sell-through in the channel. However, demand from automotive and core industrial customers remained resilient supported by accelerated growth drivers. Due to higher factory utilization and sales volume, the non-GAAP gross profit was almost $2 billion and the margin was 58%, up 150 basis points YoY.
Sources: Company, Counterpoint
Automotive
NXP’s strong suit, the automotive segment accounted for 52.4% of the total revenue in Q3 and stood at $1.8 billion. This was a 24% YoY and 5% QoQ growth. Auto demand for silicon content continues to be robust with rising EV penetration and increased autonomy efforts. Strong growth for advanced analog, automotive processing and radar solutions was visible in Q3. However, due to supply constraints, there was a shortage of microcontrollers and analog products in automotive. The NCNR order book in this segment continued to outstrip the company’s supply capacity, which will remain “sold out” next year too.
The company also announced collaborations and a product launch in the third quarter. NXP’s S32 family of domain and zonal automotive processors is gaining traction among automakers as a preferred scalable platform for software-defined vehicles. A leading global automaker has selected the S32 MCUs/processors for its upcoming fleet of vehicles, starting 2025. NXP released the second-generation RFCMOS radar transceiver, TEF82xx, which supersedes the market-proven TEF810xx. This high-performance, single-chip solution supports short-, medium- and long-range radar applications including cascaded high-resolution imaging radar. Besides, NXP has collaborated with ChargePoint of the US for charging solutions and has also included its proprietary payment solutions to allow a seamless process for the customers.
For Q4 revenues, NXP is estimating this segment to be in the high teens and flattish on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively.
Industrial & IoT
The industrial and IoT segment’s revenue was $713 million, an increase of 17.5% YoY with no QoQ change and $32 million below the company’s guidance. The YoY increase was driven by the demand for crossover processors, 32-bit AMR MCUs, point-of-sale security solutions and more. As mentioned earlier, the consumer-exposed IoT business was much impacted. Since August, there was a global softening visible in the consumer IoT market with China getting affected strongly. Since NXP has a sizeable channel exposure in China and serves thousands of customers via distribution partners, the revenues in that domain took a hit.
Going forward, NXP could ship more into the channel but instead decided to limit channel inventory to 1.6 months (as opposed to the long-term target of 2.5 months) to prevent losses due to uncertain macro conditions. The company will closely gauge and adhere to market requirements depending on the developing demand and, if required, redirect it to other customers. With respect to on-hand inventory, the DIO increased five days sequentially to 99 days with more increments expected in the future.
For Q4, the industrial and IoT segment is expected to be in the negative territory in both YoY (low double-digit) and QoQ (high teens) terms.
Mobile
The mobile segment had revenues of $410 million, up 19% YoY and $30 million more than what was expected. Despite seeing weakness in the Android mobile market, NXP attained better than estimated revenues due to being exposed to the higher-end (which seems to be doing better) rather than the lower-end mobile phone market, increased attach rate for its secure mobile wallet, advanced analog high-speed interfaces, eSIM connectivity and more.
As Ultra-Wideband (UWB) penetration starts picking up in different verticals like mobile, IoT and cars, the company will be able to accrue more revenues in the future, from its UWB technology along with mobile wallet solutions. UWB use cases are already visible in China as UWB functionality in phones (flagship models) such as those from Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi. These smartphone players have collaborated with automakers to implement UWB-based solutions in cars to offer consumers secure car access. NXP expects four Chinese OEMs to offer this technology by the end of this year with a minimum of three more to follow in 2023. Kostal is using NXP’s UWB technology for its digital key system, which is being adopted by local company Nio.
For Q4, the company is expecting this segment to be up in the low single-digit range YoY and down in the upper single-digit range QoQ.
Communication Infrastructure & Other
The communication infrastructure and “other” segment’s revenue was $518 million, slightly above the guidance. Annual and quarterly growth rates were 14% and 4% respectively. The growth can be attributed to the demand for network edge equipment, RFID tagging solutions, cellular base stations and more.
NXP launched its new higher-power BTS7202 RX front-end modules (FEM) and BTS6403/6305 pre-drivers for 5G massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) going up to 20 W per channel. These solutions complement its 32T32R active antenna systems and are developed using the company’s silicon germanium (SiGe) process. As 5G network coverage expands, there is a need for higher-power solutions to ensure consistent network quality along with reduced operational costs for MNOs. The newly announced devices can cater to these requirements with higher power per channel and modest consumption.
For Q4, the guidance seems positive and stands in the low-teens range YoY and flattish QoQ.
Capex Overview and Inventory
Cash flow generation continues to be excellent according to the company. In Q3, cash flow from operations stood at $1.14 billion compared to $819 in Q2. Net capex accounted for 8.2% of the revenue or $281 million. Due to supply constraints and strong demand (especially in the auto sector), internal utilization remained in the high 90s. More than 65% of the capacity was focused on IP proprietary mixed-signal, auto-centric capacity internally.
Capex for this year has decreased from 10% to 8% due to delays in equipment deliveries. For 2023, it will range between 6% and 8%.
From the demand perspective, there is weakness in the consumer IoT and Android mobile market, whereas the automotive and core industrial markets are witnessing resilient demand. On the supply side, the situation is reversed with the latter markets facing supply crunches and not being able to cater to the true demand. On the other hand, in the former markets, excessive shipping in channels is being prevented because of uncertain macro conditions.
Conclusion
NXP’s supply capabilities have improved over time but major end markets like auto and core industrial continue to face shortages. Prevalent weak macro conditions and extended China lockdowns will cause further hindrances to the revenue recovery of consumer-oriented markets. However, the company is being cautious and trying to mitigate costs by reducing its discretionary spending, lowering incentive compensations, and focusing on a strict approach to managing distribution channel inventory.
Counterpoint will be attending the Cloud Native Telco’s Forum 2022 on 24th August.
Our Research Vice President, Neil Shah, will be moderating the inaugural session at the Cloud Native Telco’s Forum 2022. You can schedule a meeting with him to discuss the latest trends in the technology, media and telecommunication sector and understand how our leading research and services can help your business.
Click here (or send us an email at contact@counterpointresearch.com) to schedule a meeting with him.
Session Theme: “Cloud Native in India – It’s time to Operationalise” Day and Date: Wednesday, 24th August 2022 Time: 9:30am – 11:30am IST Venue: Zenith Ballroom, The St. Regis Hotel, Mumbai
Our Research Vice President Neil Shah will be moderating a panel discussion at the Digital Telco Virtual Summit ’20. The event runs from 18th to 19th September 2020.
The details for the panel discussion are below:
Topic: Managing the transition towards advanced 5G
Panelists:
Vishant Vora, Chief Technology Officer, Vodafone Idea
Ludvig Landgren, Head of Digital Services for Market Area South East Asia, Oceania and India, Ericsson
Vikram S Anand, Sr Director- Sales, Ciena Communications
Time: 18th September 2020 |3:40 PM – 4:40 PM
An overview of the event:
With next-generation technologies at the horizon, the Indian telecom sector, passing through turbulent times, is eyeing newer business opportunities, as the carriers strategically overhaul their architecture to become digital service providers. Embracing innovation to enable technology transformation is no more a second thought for telcos, as they must deliver faster, smarter and on-demand services with high resilience.
Telcos, thus, are increasingly embracing open cloud architecture as a part of their cloud-native approach to step up transformation as a next-generation service operator. While at the onset of a new decade, marred with the Covid-19 pandemic, businesses worldwide have already started to reshape their operational models. It is high time for telecom carriers to closely collaborate with technology and IT infrastructure providers to redefine strategies, create new revenue streams and stay competitive in the market driven by cloud computing, the internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence and blockchain.
The virtual summit, organized by ETTelecom.com, will bring top executives from telecom carriers, technology & infrastructure providers, and regulatory & government officials together to deliberate potential strategies and bottlenecks in India’s digital transformation.
In this two-day summit, Day 1 will discuss challenges & opportunities in the telecom sector and Day 2 will have an executive training program.
The US carrier results are in from the fourth quarter of 2018. US carriers have been all bragging about being the ‘first’ to roll out 5G service, but never has pricing been discussed. The biggest bombshell from the quarterly earnings reports has barely been talked about — T-Mobile talked 5G service pricing. The carrier announced that 5G smartphone service plans will not change from today’s 4G service plans.
This has the potential to cause multiple ripple effects through the industry.
It may force AT&T and Verizon to keep prices flat. There is some wiggle room. Carriers could expand equipment installment plans to longer payoff periods—36 months a possibility. This would lower monthly costs. Carriers could then drop in a 5G service premium while keeping monthly costs the same. At CES, AT&T floated the idea of the return of subsidies. A carrier could incentivize premium family plans, for example, by offering a subsidy on hardware but charging extra for 5G service.
This may increase 5G handset uptake. If 5G service is the same price, some premium subscribers may opt to ‘future-proof’ their handset purchase and upgrade to a 5G smartphone even if their area does not have full (or any) 5G service. With postpaid handset holding periods rising to close to three years, this is plausible. By YE2020, carriers intend to have vast 5G coverage.
5G pricing and rollout may increase pressure on Apple. If 5G uptake is higher than initial, tepid 2019/20 estimates, it will apply pressure to Apple to launch a 5G iPhone earlier. There are many moving parts including a bitter lawsuit with 5G modem supplier Qualcomm. However, Intel must deliver, or the Qualcomm legal dispute resolved. A Spring 2020 5G iPhone would be a welcome addition for US and global carriers and vastly increase 5G device sales estimates.
For more details on carrier 5G rollout plans, see our recent carrier reports:
T-Mobile dominated net adds and recorded solid postpaid and prepaid performances. Despite this dominance in net adds, the company sold 14% fewer handsets during the quarter. For complete T-Mobile and Metro details see (here).
AT&T had a drastic drop in hardware sales, down 25% YoY. There were improved financial metrics. There are big expectations from the carrier’s vast media purchases. For more details on AT&T and Cricket insights see (here).
Sprint’s management has changed its narrative from having a network on par with Verizon and AT&T to a narrative the carrier will be in trouble without combining with T-Mobile’s low-band spectrum. For complete Sprint and Boost details see, (here).
In order to access
Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited (Company or We hereafter) Web sites, you may be asked to complete a registration form. You are required to provide contact information which is used to enhance the user experience and determine whether you are a paid subscriber or not.
Personal Information
When you register on we ask you for personal information. We use this information to provide you with the best advice and highest-quality service as well as with offers that we think are relevant to you. We may also contact you regarding a Web site problem or other customer service-related issues. We do not sell, share or rent personal information about you collected on Company Web sites.
How to unsubscribe and Termination
You may request to terminate your account or unsubscribe to any email subscriptions or mailing lists at any time.
In accessing and using this Website, User agrees to comply with all applicable laws and agrees not to take any action that would compromise the security or viability of this Website. The Company may terminate User’s access to this Website at any time for any reason. The terms hereunder regarding Accuracy of Information and Third Party Rights shall survive termination.
Website Content and Copyright
This Website is the property of Counterpoint and is protected by international copyright law and conventions. We grant users the right to access and use the Website, so long as such use is for internal information purposes, and User does not alter, copy, disseminate, redistribute or republish any content or feature of this Website. User acknowledges that access to and use of this Website is subject to these TERMS OF USE and any expanded access or use must be approved in writing by the Company.
– Passwords are for user’s individual use
– Passwords may not be shared with others
– Users may not store documents in shared folders.
– Users may not redistribute documents to non-users unless otherwise stated in their contract terms.
Changes or Updates to the Website
The Company reserves the right to change, update or discontinue any aspect of this Website at any time without notice. Your continued use of the Website after any such change constitutes your agreement to these TERMS OF USE, as modified.
Accuracy of Information:
While the information contained on this Website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, We disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. User assumes sole responsibility for the use it makes of this Website to achieve his/her intended results.
Third Party Links:
This Website may contain links to other third party websites, which are provided as additional resources for the convenience of Users. We do not endorse, sponsor or accept any responsibility for these third party websites, User agrees to direct any concerns relating to these third party websites to the relevant website administrator.
Cookies and Tracking
We may monitor how you use our Web sites. It is used solely for purposes of enabling us to provide you with a personalized Web site experience.
This data may also be used in the aggregate, to identify appropriate product offerings and subscription plans. Cookies may be set in order to identify you and determine your access privileges. Cookies are simply identifiers. You have the ability to delete cookie files from your hard disk drive.
