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2023 Global Smartphone Shipments to Hit Lowest Level in Almost a Decade

Global smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to shrink by 5% YoY to reach 1.2 billion.
However, the shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY in Q4 2023.
The iPhone 15 Pro series’ share in the overall iPhone 15 series is projected to increase to 65% in Q4 2023.
India will become Apple’s new growth focus, but the brand’s underperformance in China will hinder its growth in 2024.

London, San Diego, Seoul, New Delhi, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong – November 30, 2023

Global smartphone shipments in 2023 are projected to decline 5% YoY to reach 1.2 billion, the lowest level in almost a decade, according to Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone 360 Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast. However, the shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY in Q4 2023 to reach 312 million units.

North America (NAM) and Europe’s shipments are expected to remain stagnant. But China and emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa (MEA) and India have managed to break out from their declines and will recover to become the new drivers of growth in the smartphone market from Q4 2023 onwards.

Apple, the usual market leader in Q4 with its newly launched series, is expected to record a volume decline of 3% YoY in Q4 2023, mainly due to Huawei’s aggressive expansion in China and prolonged delay in smartphone upgrades in Japan. However, Apple will try to offset the underperformance in volume terms by growing in value terms with a better product mix. In Q4 2022, the shipment share of the iPhone 14 Pro series in the entire iPhone 14 series was 61%. In Q4 2023, however, the iPhone 15 Pro series’ portion in the iPhone 15 series is projected to increase to 65%.

Global Smartphone Market Shipments, 2013-2024F

Source: Counterpoint Research

After destocking efforts end with a relatively healthy inventory by the year-end, smartphone shipments in 2024 are projected to grow by 3% YoY. We can also expect a recovery focused on emerging markets, backed by increasing consumer confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Apple will be just in line with the market growth in 2024 while facing pressures in its traditional markets. The retention of high interest rates in the US, which hit consumer spending, and intensifying competition in China’s premium smartphone market, mainly due to Huawei, are expected to hinder Apple’s growth throughout 2024.

Huawei, driven by its newly launched Mate 60 5G series and older P-series 4G devices, recorded an enormous success in Q3 2023. Assuming that Huawei can expand the production of its Kirin SoCs via partnerships, the brand is expected to continue to grow 37% YoY in 2024.

Associate Director Liz Lee said, “India, maintaining its momentum for premiumization, is expected to become Apple’s new growth focus. Apple’s India shipments are predicted to grow 23% YoY in 2024. However, due to its underperformance against Huawei in China, Apple’s global market share will unavoidably decline slightly YoY in Q4 2023 and across 2024.”

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Europe Smartphone Shipments Decline 11% YoY in Q3 2023, Recovery Looks Distant

Europe’s smartphone shipments declined 11% YoY in Q3 2023.
Samsung touched its lowest Q3 shipments since 2011.
Apple captured a higher market share despite its lowest Q3 shipments since 2014.
HONOR was back in the top five after three years with strong growth in Western Europe.

London, New Delhi, Jakarta, Boston, Toronto, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – November 20, 2023

Europe’s smartphone shipments declined 11% YoY in Q3 2023, according to the latest report from Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor Service. Western Europe declined by 8%, indicating a slight recovery from the 14% decline in the previous quarter. However, Eastern Europe declined by 15% due to continued economic and geopolitical challenges.

Commenting on the overall market, Research Analyst Harshit Rastogi said, “Q3 2023 saw the lowest Q3 smartphone shipments since 2011. However, some OEMs have managed to gain a foothold in the market, such as Transsion brands TECNO and Infinix (particularly in Russia), while HONOR is doing well in Western Europe. Even as the market shares of top players remain the same, Chinese OEMs are switching ranks among themselves.”

Commenting on the outlook, Associate Director Jan Stryjak said, “While the market continued to decline, major launches like the iPhone 15 series and Samsung’s fifth-generation foldables softened the fall. The rate of decline is slowing and, while we aren’t holding out a return to growth just yet, we are optimistic about a strong end to the year in Q4. Economic conditions continue to be tough, though, and people are holding on to their devices for longer than ever. Therefore, we expect the market to remain muted for the foreseeable future.”

Market summary for Q3 2023

Samsung declined 15% YoY and reached its lowest Q3 shipments since 2011. The decline was mitigated by the launch of its new foldables, which received a warm reception in the region.
Apple reached its highest Q3 share at 24% despite declining by 3% YoY and touching its lowest Q3 shipments since 2014. The OEM will likely lead in the coming quarter owing to pent-up upgrade demand for the iPhone 15 series.
Xiaomi declined by 13% in Q3 2023 but remained the top player in Eastern Europe, capturing 35% of the market. The brand is also facing backlash in some Western European markets (like Finland) due to its continued presence in the Russian market.
HONOR was the only brand among the top five to grow YoY, inching closer to levels before its split from Huawei and entering the top five. The brand is likely to take market share from other Chinese OEMs (like OPPO).
Transsion brands TECNO and Infinix surged in the region, growing 192% and 518% respectively, with Russia being the primary market for both. In the coming quarters, the competition among the Chinese OEMs will intensify even as parallel imports sustain the market for Samsung and Apple.
OPPO’s uncertainties in the region were reflected in its shipments, which declined 23% YoY. However, Eastern Europe limited the brand’s regional decline with 27% growth. In the coming quarters, the brand will likely face more issues in Western Europe.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Guest Post: Meta’s Instagram Fee Proposal Priced to Fail?

Meta doesn’t expect anyone to pay for Instagram.

Meta’s proposal to charge $10.5 per month for Instagram looks deliberately priced to fail, creating a strong incentive for users in the EU to explicitly allow targeted advertising which will also test just how valuable the service is to its users.

Meta Platforms is currently embroiled in negotiations with the EU with regard to its business model where the regulators’ view is that just because users clicked “Agree” to an agreement, this does not give Meta the right to target them with advertisements. This is an ongoing issue as Meta was fined €390 million by Ireland’s Data Privacy Commissioner for precisely this activity and was told it had to think of something else.

The monetization model for digital ecosystems can have three methods – hardware, advertising and subscription. Advertising and subscription are mutually exclusive and the option for users to choose one or the other is now commonplace across many types of digital services.

RFM Research conducted a study in 2018 that examined the viability of digital ecosystems switching from advertising to subscription as their source of revenue. The results of the study indicated that while X and Snap could probably make the switch without risking damage to their revenue base, the same was not true for the larger players such as Google and Meta Platforms. This is because although they generate an average revenue per user (ARPU) of around $3.00-$3.60 per month, the distribution of ARPU within the user base is very large.

For example, even though the US makes up a small portion of the user base, it often accounts for as much as 50% of revenues, indicating that US users generate far more advertising revenues per user than non-US users. This creates a pricing problem for subscription because in order to ensure that revenue is not lost, the price would have to be so high that no one would ever pay it.

The $3.00-$3.60 ARPU includes all of Meta’s properties and so it is easy to deduce that ARPUs for Instagram in the EU are likely to fall well short of $1 per user per month. Hence, a price of $10.5 per user per month represents a price increase of more than 950% and it’s pretty clear that no user in the EU will be willing to pay it.

It seems that this is precisely what Meta Platforms is aiming at. In order to keep the regulator happy, it provides an option that no one will want, and assuming that the users still want to use Instagram, they will sign up for targeted advertising in a way that satisfies the EU.

The risk of this strategy is that users decide that Instagram is actually not that important and stop using it entirely, although its engagement and user metrics indicate that this is a very small risk. Instead, what can be expected is that Meta makes this offer and almost all of its users sign up for targeted advertising and life returns to normal.

Hence, there doesn’t seem to be any meaningful implications from this issue, although there may be another fine in the works for infractions that Meta may have committed in the past.

(This guest post was written by Richard Windsor, our Research Director at Large. This first appeared on Radio Free Mobile. All views expressed are Richard’s own.)

Infographic: Q2-2023 | Smartphones | Mobile Market Monitor

Our Q2 2023 Market Monitor report has been published. We release one infographic each quarter to summarize the global smartphone market activities in a single page.

Some quick observations on the smartphone market:

Global smartphone shipments declined 9% YoY in Q2 2023 to reach 268 million units.
Samsung remained the top smartphone player in Q2 2023, while Apple saw a cyclical decline.
Among the top five brands, Apple experienced the smallest YoY shipment decline. Among the top 10 brands, TECNO and Infinix, part of the Transsion Group, saw double-digit YoY shipment growth in the quarter.
In terms of regional performance, only the Middle East and Africa (MEA) exhibited annual shipment growth while North America experienced the highest decline.
The top five brands accounted for almost 80% of the total 5G smartphone shipments in Q2 2023.

Use the button below to download the high resolution PDF of the infographic:

Europe’s Q2 2023 Smartphone Shipments Hit 11-year Low

Europe smartphone shipments fell 12% YoY in Q2 2023 to reach lowest since 2012.
Russia only major market to register growth at 4% YoY.
OPPO’s shipments fell 51% YoY hurt by patent issues and difficult market conditions.
2023 smartphone shipments are set to be lower than in 2022.

London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Jakarta, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – September 1, 2023

European smartphone shipments declined 12% YoY in Q2 2023, marking the lowest quarterly shipment volume since Q1 2012, according to the latest report from Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor Service.

Western Europe declined by 14% YoY during the quarter while Eastern Europe limited its fall to 8% YoY, despite being in an already battered state. All major European nations performed weakly in Q2 2023, except Russia, which conversely registered 4% YoY growth. However, this was primarily due to lower shipments in Q2 2022 – the first full quarter after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions and market exits of prominent smartphone players.

OPPO had a difficult time in Q2 2023 with patent disputes and uncertainty in several countries, due to which the brand’s shipments dropped 51% YoY. The uncertainty is likely to persist which will result in further shipment declines in the coming quarters.

realme grew 12% YoY, driven primarily by Russia, which accounted for 55% of the brand’s shipments in the region. In Russia, realme benefitted from Samsung and Apple’s market exit, which allowed the company to fill the void left by these heavyweights. Additionally, realme has remained in the second position in Russia for five straight quarters and has been closing the gap with the market leader Xiaomi.

HONOR registered 9% YoY growth during the quarter due to the base effect and its ongoing expansion outside China.

Commenting on the current market dynamics, Research Analyst Harshit Rastogi said, “Despite falling shipment volumes, the higher price bands (wholesale prices exceeding $600) have been capturing a larger share of the market each year. They also have a longer replacement cycle compared to mid-segment and lower-price band smartphones, which further dampens demand. Consequently, OEMs are likely to focus on increasing their ASP and concentrate on services to drive revenue growth in the coming quarters.”

Commenting on market outlook, Associate Director Jan Stryjak commented, “The market is unlikely to make a full recovery `this year and 2023 smartphone shipments are set to be lower than in 2022, marking consecutive decade-low shipments in both 2022 and 2023. While the economic conditions are partly to blame, consumer buying behaviour is also changing, suggesting that a lower level of sales will set a new baseline. However, despite the low shipment volumes, upcoming iterations of Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s foldables are likely to fare well, prompting a bump in sales volumes in the coming quarters.”

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European EV Sales Increased Over 13% YoY in Q1 2023 with Tesla Model Y as Bestseller

EV sales penetration dropped to 18.4% in Q1 2023 from 27.6% in Q4 2022
Tesla Model Y was the best-selling EV model across all major countries except Spain.
EV sales penetration is expected to exceed 25% again by the end of the year.

London, New Delhi, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – July 5, 2023

Europe’s passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales increased by more than 13% YoY in Q1 2023, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Europe Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. While overall passenger car sales in Europe are showing signs of improvement, they have not yet reached pre-COVID-19 levels. In terms of overall EV sales, Germany led the pack, closely followed by the UK, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Norway. Meanwhile, the share of EVs in total passenger vehicle sales was the highest in Norway and the Netherlands.

In Q1 2023, Battery EV (BEV) sales jumped 32% YoY while plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) sales declined 13% YoY. Consequently, the EV share of total passenger vehicle sales declined during the quarter from that a year ago.

Meanwhile, there has been notable progress in the European market for Hybrid EVs (HEV) and mild-hybrid EVs (MHEVs). This indicates that Europe is making efforts to tap into the lower-end EV market while simultaneously developing battery ecosystems and fostering a circular economy. These initiatives are being undertaken before placing a stronger emphasis on pure EV sales.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “In Q1 2023, most European EV sales were captured by the top five automotive groups – Volkswagen Group, Tesla, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai-Kia. They accounted for nearly two-thirds of the market share. When it comes to pure electric vehicles (BEVs), Tesla holds the second position, slightly behind Volkswagen. In the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market, Volkswagen takes the lead, followed by Mercedes-Benz and BMW.”

“Chinese EV manufacturers struggled to increase their market share in Europe during the quarter. However, MG, BYD, NIO, ORA and Aiways managed to improve their sales compared to the previous year. On the other hand, LYNK & CO, Hongqi and Xpeng faced challenges in the European market. Nevertheless, we expect Chinese automakers to be able to enhance their market share in the coming quarters by offering cost-effective vehicles with advanced features, as the EV market is expected to perform better.”

The top-selling EV model during Q1 2023 was the Tesla Model Y, followed by the Volvo XC40, Tesla Model 3, Volkswagen ID.3, and Audi Q4 e-tron. These top five models account for nearly a quarter of the total shipments. The Tesla Model Y dominates the market across major European countries, demonstrating Tesla’s strong brand presence in the region, except in Spain where it faces more competition.

Discussing the market outlook, Research Vice President Peter Richardson said, “The penetration of EVs in total passenger vehicle sales in Europe experienced a decline this quarter, dropping to 18.4% from 27.6% in Q4 2022. This is a significant shift compared to the previous trend of continuous QoQ growth. Except France, all major countries experienced this decline during Q1 2023.”

“Several factors contributed to this decline, including the unstable economic conditions and the removal of EV subsidies by Norway. Germany, the largest EV market in Europe, experienced a decline as the looming recession and cautious consumer spending hurt the EV market. These circumstances impacted the overall adoption of EVs in the region. However, since April, the European region has shown signs of recovery. As a result, we expect the share of EVs to rebound and surpass 25% again by the end of this year.”

*Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

*The countries in this study include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and Ukraine.

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. Hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not covered by this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Europe Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q1 2023’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Abhik Mukherjee

Soumen Mandal

Neil Shah

Peter Richardson

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HONOR Bucks Market Trend With Fast Overseas Expansion

The global financial crisis has hit consumers hard, weakening demand and making 2022 the worst year for smartphone shipments since 2013, even taking into account COVID-ravaged 2020.

Times are tough for most smartphone OEMs but HONOR’s performance thus far is noteworthy. While some are having to carefully manage inventory in the face of weak consumer demand, and as most other Chinese OEMs pivot strategies to be less aggressive in their expansion plans due to uncertain market conditions outside of their home market, HONOR is actually expanding.

In its overseas markets (i.e., outside of China), HONOR’s shipments grew almost four-fold in Q1 2023 versus Q1 2022. The only other major OEM to register growth in the same period was HMD; many others posted double-digit declines.

Yes, HONOR’s growth is from a much smaller base than the others, since it only became an independent brand (separating from Huawei) in November 2020, but the growth trajectory – especially in a declining market, is positive.

So, what are HONOR’s growth prospects could we see it higher up the top 10 non-China rankings list in 2024?

Regional expansion is a work in progress

In terms of HONOR’s key overseas markets, over the last year, HONOR has seen impressive growth in three regions – Europe, Middle East & Africa and Latin America – where its shipments increased by over five-, six- and eight-fold respectively.

Source: Counterpoint Research. Note: Europe data excludes Russia and Turkey.

Europe

It took a bit of time for HONOR to get started in Europe following its independence in November 2020. After a period of re-grouping, HONOR returned in early 2022 with partnerships with many major retailers and some of region’s biggest operators (including Three UK, Orange and SFR France and Wind Tre Italy). Operators are crucial to future growth prospects as their sales channels account for around 40% of the region’s smartphone sales in Q1 2023 (and around 55% in Western Europe).

HONOR now operates a three-tier strategy in Europe:

The flagship Magic smartphones, starting with the Magic4 Pro, established HONOR’s premium credentials, and has done well in France, Germany and the UK.
The mid-tier HONOR 50 and 50 Lite were HONOR’s main sellers in Q1 2022, replaced by the HONOR 70 which was HONOR’s key volume driver in Europe in Q1 2023.
The budget X series has done well in the more price-conscious markets, for example Italy and Eastern Europe.

This complete portfolio offering has helped HONOR grow quickly in Europe. HONOR is hoping to maintain this momentum with the well-reviewed Magic5 Pro (launched in Q2 2023) and the Magic Vs (HONOR’s foldable launched in Europe).

Source: Counterpoint Research. Note: Europe data excludes Russia and Turkey.

Latin America

HONOR’s fastest growing overseas region is Latin America, where its shipments grew nearly eight-fold YoY and more than tripled compared to the previous quarter. HONOR is growing share in most of the countries in the region: it entered the top five in Colombia and Peru (where it has double-digit share) and is also seeing success in Panama and Guatemala.

MEA

HONOR identified MEA as a key growth market, especially the Middle East region which has so far weathered the macro headwinds extremely well and is one of the few growing markets in the world. It has entered top five in some key markets such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.

HONOR bringing new flagships to global markets

HONOR has so far relied on its Number and X series to grow outside of China. However, it is now looking to its Magic series to help secure its position as a key player, adopting a dual flagship approach with the Magic5 Series and Magic Vs smartphones.

The Magic5 Pro is HONOR’s most ambitious flagship to date and it is getting a positive reception on various review sites as well as ranking top of DXOMARK’s camera ratings when first released.

Starting at $1,200, this device is expensive, placing it in the same price bracket as the Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra. This may cause issues in markets where consumers tend to favour more affordable devices. However, it has an opportunity to gain share in the more premium markets like the UK, France, Germany and the UAE, where high-end smartphones are relatively more popular.

The Magic Vs, meanwhile, is HONOR’s second foldable smartphone, and it’s first to be launched outside China. HONOR is hoping to ride the wave of foldables growth started by Samsung’s Fold and Flip smartphones, and more recent offerings like the OPPO Find N2 Flip and the upcoming Google Pixel Fold.

Although the foldables market is still small, its growth is an industry bright spot. We expect global shipments of foldable smartphones to grow at an annual rate of just under 50% over the next five years, passing 90 million, or 6% of total smartphones, by 2027. Around three-quarters of this will be outside of China, and HONOR is banking on the Magic Vs to establish it as a key challenger to Samsung in the foldables space.

Future prospects

Developing a portfolio approach

As noted above, HONOR is using a three-pronged portfolio approach in the smartphone market with ranges that span the price bands. In key flagship segments, HONOR’s product performance is approaching that of the market leaders. And its flagship products act as heroes that help to build brand momentum that filters down to its mid- and low-end products.

HONOR is also gradually filling out its portfolio with an ecosystem of partner products including wearables, tablets, PCs and more, which will support efforts to build brand awareness.

So, what can we expect?

Counterpoint Research expects HONOR will gradually grow its overseas market position, gaining share from rivals as it achieves increasing distribution across both operator and retail channels, its product portfolio expands and its brand gains awareness.

We do not expect explosive growth, rather a steady increase in strength from which HONOR can build. And we further expect this to occur in some key countries such as UK, France and Germany, Latin American countries including Mexico, Colombia, Peru , and select countries of Middle East and North Africa.

This forecast is the most likely outcome given HONOR’s current position and strategy, but it’s not pre-determined – HONOR can and likely will disrupt it through its own actions.

Feedback or a question for the analyst that wrote this note?

Jan Stryjak

Associate Director

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Jan Stryjak

Peter Richardson

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Europe Smartphone Shipments Dropped 23% YoY in Q1 2023; Market at Lowest Levels for Over a Decade

The Europe smartphone market declined by 23% YoY to 38 million units in Q1 2023; the lowest quarterly total since Q2 2012.
Samsung maintained leadership despite a 27% YoY shipment decrease, thanks largely to a relatively successful launch of its latest flagship Galaxy S23 series
Second place Apple gained share slightly YoY, but this was more down to it declining less than most other vendors.
Xiaomi was the only major vendor to grow YoY, due to a recovery from a poor Q1 2022

London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – May 10, 2023

The challenging economic climate continued to weigh heavily on the European smartphone market, with shipments declining by 23% year-on-year in Q1 2023, according to the latest research from Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor service. Inflation, interest rates and energy prices remained stubbornly high, as did the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, prolonging the cautious approach consumers are taking with their discretionary spending. This protracted shrinking of the European market resulted in Q1 2023 being the region’s worst quarter for smartphone shipments since Q2 2012.

Europe smartphone shipments and YoY growth

Source: Counterpoint Research

Europe smartphone shipment market share

Source: Counterpoint Research
Note: OPPO includes OnePlus

Counterpoint Research’s Associate Director, Jan Stryjak said, “the cost-of-living crisis continued to pour misery onto European consumers, resulting in a tough start to 2023. There were, however, some pieces of good news: Samsung, despite losing share compared to Q1 2022, successfully launched its latest flagship Galaxy 23 series (outperforming both the S22 and S21), while Apple gained share YoY (although this was more to do with it declining less than some other vendors). The biggest winner, though, was Xiaomi, being the only major vendor to register shipment growth as it recovered from a very poor Q1 2022.”

Commenting on the outlook for 2023, Stryjak added “we predicted the difficult conditions would get worse before they got better, and this was borne-out by the worst quarter for smartphone shipments we’ve seen in Europe in over a decade. However, we remain optimistic that the economic pressures should start easing in the next few quarters, boosting consumer confidence and leading to a better end of the year.”

Feedback or a question for the analyst that wrote this note?

Jan Stryjak

Associate Director

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Jan Stryjak

Peter Richardson

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Connected Car Sales Grew 12% YoY in 2022 With Volkswagen Group in Lead

Volkswagen Group led in connected car sales, closely followed by Toyota Group.
4G cars captured more than 95% of connected car sales in 2022.
Tesla broke into the top-10 connected car sales rankings for the first time.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – April 24, 2023

Global connected car sales* grew 12% YoY in 2022 with the share of connected cars in the overall car sales exceeding 50%, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Smart Automotive Service. The US remained the strongest market for connected cars followed by China and Europe. These three markets accounted for nearly 80% of the total connected car sales globally in 2022. Despite having a relatively small share of connected car sales, Japan experienced the highest growth in connected car penetration.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhilash Gupta said, “The penetration of connectivity in cars improved during 2022 after struggling in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, new facelift versions of older models like the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, Ford Escape and Chevrolet Equinox were introduced with upgraded 4G connectivity and new features. Some prominent features include remote lock/unlock, remote engine start/stop, climate control, vehicle status, location tracking, geofencing, emergency assistance, in-cabin music, video streaming, and over-the-air updates. Next-generation vehicles are being introduced with various connected and autonomous features that require high-speed internet access available through 5G. However, as of now, 5G remains a niche, available only in premium cars like the Ford F-150 Lightning, Cadillac LYRIQ, Mercedes-Benz EQS, Audi e-tron GT, BMW iX and GWM Haval HG.”

Gupta added, “With consumers’ focus shifting to connectivity in the car, non-connected car shipments are steadily declining. The top five automotive groups accounted for nearly half of the connected cars sold in 2022. Volkswagen Group led the charts in terms of connected car sales volume, closely followed by Toyota Group. Tesla broke into the top 10 for the first time.”

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The shift towards digitization in cars is increasing at a rapid pace and is visible in the consistent rise of connected car penetration globally. Currently, 4G dominates the connected car market with almost 95% share. But as the automotive market is transitioning towards electrification, software-defined vehicles and autonomy, the need for seamless and faster in-vehicle connectivity will be fulfilled through 5G. By 2030, more than 90% of connected cars sold will have embedded 5G connectivity. Connected car sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% between 2022 and 2030.”

* Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands, and consider only passenger cars with embedded connectivity.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Connected Car Tracker, Q1 2019-Q4 2022’ and ‘Global Connected Car Forecast, 2019-2030F’ are now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

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Soumen Mandal

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

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Electric Vehicles Gain Ground in Southeast Asia; Thailand Dominates Volumes

Thailand led the region’s passenger EV sales in 2022 with a 58% share.
Nearly two in three EVs sold in 2022 were BEVs.
Wuling’s newest model Air EV was the region’s bestseller.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – March 31, 2023

Passenger electric vehicle (EV*) sales** in Southeast Asia (SEA^#) accounted for just under 2% of the region’s total passenger vehicle sales in 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Thailand was the most advanced, accounting for 58% of the region’s EV sales, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam. Thailand’s government has been pushing EV sales through demand-side incentives and corporate income tax incentives for EV manufacturers.

Wuling’s Air EV was the best-selling model across the region in 2022, being one of the most affordable EV options. In terms of automotive groups, Vingroup led the SEA EV sales, closely followed by Wuling (part of SAIC-GM-Wuling group) and Volvo (Geely Holdings subsidiary). Battery EVs (BEVs) represented 64.6% of the total EV sales while plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) constituted the rest.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhilash Gupta said, “Passenger EV demand is increasing gradually across the SEA region but sales are tiny compared to global EV sales, constituting just 0.5% of the global total for 2022. However, as geopolitical tensions are rising between China and the West, SEA is becoming an attractive option for Chinese auto manufacturers looking to expand abroad. Therefore, we can expect to see more production plants in SEA in the longer term, which will help boost EV sales. Thailand has the largest auto manufacturing sector in SEA. It is aiming to leverage its manufacturing expertise to attract automakers to produce and sell EVs there. Indonesia and Vietnam have the advantage of mineral resources, which gives them an edge over others in the region. The SEA countries have set lofty EV targets and have introduced many incentives to promote EV adoption among consumers and to attract EV manufacturers to set up bases.”

Source: Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q4 2022

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “Although EVs are currently a niche market in SEA, we do expect their sales to double in 2023. However, it will be difficult for the SEA countries to achieve their EV targets and increase the share of renewables in the electricity grid at the same time.

SEA countries have the opportunity to display their manufacturing capabilities and grow, given the interest of many international auto manufacturers to invest in the region. Those that enter the market early will have an edge, allowing them to secure a substantial share of the market. The SEA region could adopt the approaches taken by China and Europe, which provide incentives based on CO₂ emission levels. Doing so would encourage both consumers and manufacturers to shift towards more environment-friendly vehicles.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e., deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

^#SEA includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q4 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Abhilash Gupta

Soumen Mandal

Brady Wang

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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