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Mobile Device Forecast March 2024 Update

Overview:
The global smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023, recording its lowest level in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry throughout the year. However, we have seen momentum building in H2 2023, with Q4 2023 consolidating gains and pointing to an expected recovery in 2024. The smartphone market grew 6.8% YoY and exceeding earlier expectations. Samsung retained the spot as the world’s top smartphone player annually by a tiny margin in 2023. In terms of regional performance, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) exhibited the highest annual shipment growth while North America (NAM) experienced the greatest decline.

  • Apple achieved better shipments than expected in Q4 2023, growing 2% YoY, despite increased competition from Huawei. While Apple did lose some share in the China premium market segment to Huawei, it was not sufficient to significantly slow Apple’s global momentum. Apple is expected to keep growing in 2024, backed by an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem and compatibility between devices in advanced markets with refresh lineups and in emerging regions with old models, respectively.
    For the iPhone 16 series, Apple is expected to apply on-device generative AI and significantly improve microphone performance to maximize its use. Based on the abundant IB of the iPhone 13, the iPhone 16 series will be able to achieve the higher shipments than its predecessors in the first year of release.
  • The successful introduction of the On-Device AI concept will play a crucial role in Samsung‘s efforts to gain a larger share in the premium market with the S24. It is projected that the shipment of the S24 during its launch year will exceed that of the S23 by 10%. Furthermore, with the improved responsiveness of Samsung’s self-developed Exynos 2400 compared to its predecessor, Samsung will be better positioned to expand its portfolio of AI-capable devices in the future.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: March 2023

Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) Feb 2024

Overview:

The annual smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023 as the macroeconomics headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry thought the year. We expect the market grow by around 3.4% annually in 2024. The reasons for upward revision of the forecast are as follows;

  • Inventory levels had reached more or less normal levels by the end of 2023 clearing the way for orderly market functioning in 2024.
  • The global macroeconomic projection is adjusted higher due to the greater-than-expected resilience in H2 2023 in many economies, such as Stronger-than-expected US growth and partly growth in the euro zone, the growth in emerging and developing Asia, and strong demand in Brazil, Mexico, and India.
  • The introduction of Gen AI based devices is likely to catalyse additional growth.

 This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2023-2027.

 Table of Contents:

  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
  • Track Changes – Smartphone
    • Global
    • North America
    • Caribbean & Latin America
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
    • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

 Published Date: Feb 2024

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK December 2023 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
Annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 5.3% to 1.16 billion units in 2023, the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector across the year. However, Q3 ended slightly stronger than our earlier expectations, signaling an easing in the rate of decline. Bolstered by regional recoveries and new product upgrade demand, the global smartphone market declined by 1% YoY to 299.8 million units in Q3 2023 ahead of the sales seasons.

  • Unlike last year, Apple appears to have had no major issues with the initial supply of the iPhone 15 series, and mobile carriers will be eager to steal high-value consumers from competitors in the fourth quarter of 2023. And with the large iPhone 12 installed base likely ripe for upgrades, promotions are expected to be aggressive to prompt renewal, giving Apple a good presence in key regions.
  • Samsung will continue to lead the foldable market with about 45% market share in 2024. Due to increasing market share of Chinese player like Huawei, HONOR and OPPO in this segment Samsung’s market share is expected to gradually decline.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2024 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: December 2023

Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) Nov 2023

Overview:

Annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 5.3% to 1.16 billion units in 2023, the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector across the year. After destocking efforts complete with relatively healthier inventory level by year-end, however, the 2024 smartphone market is projected to grow. This report provides the mobile handset/smartphone shipment forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2023-2027.

Table of Contents:

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
  • Global
  • North America
  • Caribbean & Latin America
  • Middle East & Africa
  • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
  • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

Published Date: November 2023

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK September 2023 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
The annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 6.5% to 1.15bn units in 2023, the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector. Despite some recent recovery in macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment in relation to new smartphone purchasing is still weak and not yet showing significant signs of recovery.

  • Assuming Apple does not run into initial production problems with its new iPhone 15 series like it did last year, mobile operators will be eager to steal high-value consumers from rivals in Q4 2023. And with a big iPhone 12 installed base likely to be ready to renew, promotions are expected to be aggressive, leaving Apple well-positioned across key regions.
  • Samsung Galaxy S23 series performance in the first two quarters after its launch, marginally exceeded its predecessor. Overall shipments for 2023 will be 3% higher than S22 Series since the expected launch of S23 FE at the year-end will boost the overall sales.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2024 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: September 2023

Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) Aug 2023

Overview:

The annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 6.5% YoY in 2023, to the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector. Despite some recent recovery in macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment in relation to new smartphone purchasing is still weak and not yet showing significant signs of recovery. This report provides the mobile handset/smartphone shipment forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2023-2027.

Table of Contents:

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
  • Global
  • North America
  • Caribbean & Latin America
  • Middle East & Africa
  • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
  • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

Published Date: Aug 2023

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK June 2023 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
The global smartphone market declined by 14% YoY to reach 280.2 million units in Q1 2023. Samsung surpassed Apple as the leading smartphone player in Q1 2023, driven by the success of its mid-tier A Series and the recently launched S23 series. Apple experienced the least YoY shipment decline among the top five brands, resulting in its highest-ever Q1 market share of 21%. OnePlus emerged as the fastest-growing top 10 smartphone brand globally, significantly contributing to growth from China and India. Regarding regional performance, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) exhibited the only single-digit decline at 8%, although this was based on a relatively small market size. Europe saw the most significant reduction, with a 41% decrease, primarily driven by Russia and Central and Eastern Europe.

The 2023 smartphone market is expected to fall 2% YoY, reaching 1.2 billion units as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector. Despite some recent recovery in macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment on the smartphone sector is still weak. We believe, however, the challenging atmosphere will reverse from Q3 2023, and we see the YoY growth for the second half of the year.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2024 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: June 2023

Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) May 2023

Overview:

The 2023 smartphone market is expected to fall 2% YoY, reaching 1.2 billion units as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector. The reasons for further lowering the forecast are as follows;

– Despite some recent recovery in macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment on the smartphone sector is still weak.

– The challenging atmosphere will reverse from Q3 2023, and we see the YoY growth for the second half of the year

– Consumer sentiment is expected to recover through H2 2023 accordingly. Headline inflation rates have eased across the developed world, setting central banks on a path to ease rate hikes.

This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2023-2027.

Table of Contents:

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
    • Global
    • North America
    • Caribbean & Latin America
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
    • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

Published Date: May 2023

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK March 2022 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
The global smartphone market remained under pressure in Q4 2022 with shipments declining by 19% YoY to the lowest level for a holiday quarter since 2013, even as it grew QoQ slightly to 302.6 million units. The cost-of-living crisis, labor market shortages, and a decline in consumers’ purchasing power resulted in double-digit declines YoY in the shipments of each of the top five smartphone players. The shipments for the full year 2022 also declined to 1.23 billion units, the lowest since 2013. The war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds kept the consumer sentiment weak in 2022 while smartphone users reduced the frequency of their purchases.

Apple was the only one that performed reasonably well in Q4 2022. Its share of iPhone shipments could have been even higher if not for the production issues caused by the COVID-19 breakout at the Zhengzhou factory, which produces the vast majority of Pro series volumes. Apple will continue to exceed the market expectation as the demand for high-end iPhones remains strong, as seen during the recent market contraction.

Foldable device forecast of Samsung for 2023 is lowered again. New foldable device launch at global market from Chinese OEM will have a negative effect to the sales number in the short term. But new product will help the market to grow eventually.

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2024 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: March 2023

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