Overview:
The global smartphone market has shown signs of recovery since late 2023 after a prolonged period of sluggishness. Q1 2024 smartphone shipments increased 6% YoY, backed by the strong performance of emerging markets like MEA and CALA, which continued strong momentum, while Europe, especially Central and Eastern Europe, grew the most compared to a difficult Q1 2023. Consumer demand in these markets has been growing gradually and inventory levels have improved. With some return of consumer confidence underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions, we expect the market to grow by 3.7% annually in 2024. As most OEMs closed 2023 with a relatively healthier inventory level, they will likely keep rebuilding their stock in preparation for a potential demand increase across the year.
- Apple is planning to apply On-Device generative AI and significantly improve microphone performance to maximize GenAI use with iPhone 16 series. Based on the abundant IB of the iPhone 13, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be able to achieve the higher shipments than its predecessor in the first year of release.
- Samsung’s foldable smartphone shipments declined 42% YoY in Q1 2024, mostly due to stiff competition from OEMs such as Huawei in the Chinese market and Motorola in the US. However, the first and second quarters are seasonally low for Samsung’s foldable portfolio. Therefore, reclaiming first place from Huawei in Q2 2024 will be a difficult task. However, we expect Samsung to regain first place in Q3 2024 following the launch of its upcoming foldable lineup the Galaxy Z6 series.
- A new sub-brand will be introduced in Q3, the online-centric XingYao lineup is expected to help Huawei gain more share in the mid-to-low segments.
In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.
Published Date: June 2024
Overview:
We expect the market to grow by 3.7% annually in 2024,with some return of consumer confidence underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions. The overall smartphone ASP is expected to increase by 7% YoY in 2024, and the uptrend will continue, backed by a better product mix toward higher-end smartphones on top of the 5G migration during the forecast period. This report provides the smartphone shipment and ASP forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2024-2028.
Table of Contents:
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
Published Date: May 2024
Overview:
The global smartphone market has shown signs of recovery since late 2023 after a prolonged period of sluggishness. Q1 2024 smartphone shipments increased 6% YoY, backed by the strong performance of emerging markets like MEA and CALA. With some return of consumer confidence underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions, we expect the market to grow by 3.7% annually in 2024. This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2024-2028.
Table of Contents:
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Published Date: May 2024
Overview:
The global smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023, recording its lowest level in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry throughout the year. However, we have seen momentum building in H2 2023, with Q4 2023 consolidating gains and pointing to an expected recovery in 2024. The smartphone market grew 6.8% YoY and exceeding earlier expectations. Samsung retained the spot as the world’s top smartphone player annually by a tiny margin in 2023. In terms of regional performance, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) exhibited the highest annual shipment growth while North America (NAM) experienced the greatest decline.
- Apple achieved better shipments than expected in Q4 2023, growing 2% YoY, despite increased competition from Huawei. While Apple did lose some share in the China premium market segment to Huawei, it was not sufficient to significantly slow Apple’s global momentum. Apple is expected to keep growing in 2024, backed by an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem and compatibility between devices in advanced markets with refresh lineups and in emerging regions with old models, respectively.
For the iPhone 16 series, Apple is expected to apply on-device generative AI and significantly improve microphone performance to maximize its use. Based on the abundant IB of the iPhone 13, the iPhone 16 series will be able to achieve the higher shipments than its predecessors in the first year of release.
- The successful introduction of the On-Device AI concept will play a crucial role in Samsung‘s efforts to gain a larger share in the premium market with the S24. It is projected that the shipment of the S24 during its launch year will exceed that of the S23 by 10%. Furthermore, with the improved responsiveness of Samsung’s self-developed Exynos 2400 compared to its predecessor, Samsung will be better positioned to expand its portfolio of AI-capable devices in the future.
In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.
Published Date: March 2023
Overview:
The annual smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023, as the macroeconomics headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry thought the year. The overall smartphone ASP is expected to increase by 8% YoY in 2024. The uptrend will continue, backed by a better product mix toward higher-end smartphones on top of the 5G spread during the forecast period. In 2024, we expect that most top OEMs will integrate GenAI features into smartphones. GenAI smartphones will require an increased BoM, especially in memory. This report provides the smartphone shipment and ASP forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2023-2027.
Table of Contents:
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Published Date: Feb 2024
Overview:
The annual smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023 as the macroeconomics headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry thought the year. We expect the market grow by around 3.4% annually in 2024. The reasons for upward revision of the forecast are as follows;
- Inventory levels had reached more or less normal levels by the end of 2023 clearing the way for orderly market functioning in 2024.
- The global macroeconomic projection is adjusted higher due to the greater-than-expected resilience in H2 2023 in many economies, such as Stronger-than-expected US growth and partly growth in the euro zone, the growth in emerging and developing Asia, and strong demand in Brazil, Mexico, and India.
- The introduction of Gen AI based devices is likely to catalyse additional growth.
This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2023-2027.
Table of Contents:
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Published Date: Feb 2024
Overview:
Annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 5.3% to 1.16 billion units in 2023, the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector across the year. However, Q3 ended slightly stronger than our earlier expectations, signaling an easing in the rate of decline. Bolstered by regional recoveries and new product upgrade demand, the global smartphone market declined by 1% YoY to 299.8 million units in Q3 2023 ahead of the sales seasons.
- Unlike last year, Apple appears to have had no major issues with the initial supply of the iPhone 15 series, and mobile carriers will be eager to steal high-value consumers from competitors in the fourth quarter of 2023. And with the large iPhone 12 installed base likely ripe for upgrades, promotions are expected to be aggressive to prompt renewal, giving Apple a good presence in key regions.
- Samsung will continue to lead the foldable market with about 45% market share in 2024. Due to increasing market share of Chinese player like Huawei, HONOR and OPPO in this segment Samsung’s market share is expected to gradually decline.
In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2024 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.
Published Date: December 2023
Overview:
Annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 5.3% in 2023, the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector across the year. After destocking efforts complete with relatively healthier inventory level by year-end, however, the 2024 smartphone market is projected to grow. The overall smartphone ASP is also expected to increase in 2023, and the uptrend will continue, backed by a better product mix toward higher-end smartphones on top of the 5G spread during the forecast period. This report provides the smartphone shipment and ASP forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2023-2027.
Table of Contents:
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Published Date: November 2023
Overview:
Annual smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 5.3% to 1.16 billion units in 2023, the lowest in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the sector across the year. After destocking efforts complete with relatively healthier inventory level by year-end, however, the 2024 smartphone market is projected to grow. This report provides the mobile handset/smartphone shipment forecast by region, brand, and 5G/non-5G for 2023-2027.
Table of Contents:
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Published Date: November 2023
