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Mobile Handset Shipment Forecast by Brand Region (Long term) Feb 2023

Overview:

The 2023 smartphone market is expected to be similar to 2022, reaching around 1.23 billion units. As macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector, the smartphone market is expected to continue underperforming through H1 2023 and only start to grow from Q3 2023. This report provides the smartphone/feature phone market forecast by region and brand for 2023-2026.

Table of Contents: 

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
    • Global
    • North America
    • Caribbean & Latin America
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
    • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

Number of Pages: 16
Published Date: February 2023

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK December 2022 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
The global smartphone market declined by 12% YoY despite growing by 3% QoQ to 301.9 million units in Q3 2022. While quarterly growth in Apple and Samsung pushed the global smartphone market above 300 million units, a level it failed to reach last quarter, political and economic instability drove negative consumer sentiment. Accordingly, the annual smartphone shipment volume is estimated to be 1.24 billion units in 2022, down 11% YoY, with shrinking demand amid rising global uncertainties.

The 2023 smartphone market is expected to be of a similar scale as this year; reaching around 1.26 billion units. As macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector, the smartphone market is expected to continue underperforming through H1 2023 and only start to grow from Q3 2023. Persistent inflation, expectations of future interest rate hikes, souring corporate earnings, China’s stalled economy, the protracted Ukraine-Russia war, political turmoil in Europe, and a sweeping new set of export controls on China from the US, all contributes to the downward adjustment of the smartphone market forecast. OEMs focusing on the premium segment, which is more resilient than the low to mid-end, are better positioned to deal with these issues, with deep technological expertise and diversified businesses capable of weathering the storm.

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs until Q4 2023 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: December 2022

Mobile Handset Shipment Forecast by Brand Region (Long term)_Nov 2022

Overview: 

The 2023 smartphone market is expected to be of a similar scale as this year; reaching around 1.26 bilion units. As macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector, the smartphone market is expected to continue underperforming through H1 2023 and only starting to grow from Q3 2023.

This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2022-2026.

Table of Contents: 

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
    • Global
    • North America
    • Caribbean & Latin America
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
    • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definations

Number of Pages: 12

Published Date: November 2022

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK September 2022 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
The annual smartphone shipment volume is estimated to be 1.3 billion units in 2022, down 6% YoY, with shrinking demand amid the rising global uncertainties. A loweing of our evaluation of the global economy following a weaker growth outlook and stronger than expected central bank actions to combat inflation. We now believe a recession is very likely in late 2022 into 2023. 
In addition, there appears to be no end in sight to the Ukraine war, and weakening supplies of grains and fuels could cause new diplomatic rows between nations. So, we now expect the elevated commodity prices to continue to damage the global supply chain, while weakening consumer demand for tech products may lead to a supply glut in semiconductors and tech components.

Due to the prolonged lockdown and economic downturn in China, this unfavorable market situation is particularly affecting Chinese OEMs, and the sales proportion of existing high-end models is highly likely to decrease. Nevertheless, the foldable smartphones are attracting consumers with new form factors, so a high growth is expected over 2022-2023.

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs until Q4 2023 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: September 2022

Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) Aug 2022

Overview:

The annual smartphone shipment volume is estimated to be 1.3 billion units in 2022, down 6% YoY, with shrinking demand amid the rising global uncertainties. The reasons for further lowering the forecast are as follows;

  • A loweing of our evaluation of the global economy following a weaker growth outlook and stronger than expected central bank actions to combat inflation. We now believe a recession is very likely in late 2022 into 2023.
  • There appears to be no end in sight to the Ukraine war, and weakening supplies of grains and fuels could cause new diplomatic rows between nations.
  • We now expect the elevated commodity prices to continue to damage the global supply chain, while weakening consumer demand for tech products may lead to a supply glut in semiconductors and tech components.

This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2022-2026.

Table of Contents: 

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
    • Global
    • North America
    • Caribbean & Latin America
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
    • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

Number of Pages: 12
Published Date: August 2022

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK JUNE 2022 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:
In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs until Q4 2023 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.
The global smartphone market declined by 8% YoY in Q1 2022, shipping 326 million units. The ongoing component shortages and COVID-19 resurgence caused the decline at the beginning of the quarter while the Russia-Ukraine war did it towards the end. But the market presented a mixed bag in Q1 2022.
Samsung and Apple's higher-than-expected growth in shipments showed that the two brands had managed to overcome the component shortages that hit their supplies last year. Samsung was able to exceed 6mn foldable phone shipments in 2021. Thanks to increased production of foldable panel and increased interest from consumers, we expect that Samsung will achieve 12.9mn of foldable device shipment in 2022, more than 65% YoY increase. Apple continued to exceed the market expectation as the demand for the iPhone 13 series remained strong in Q1 2022. However, its expectation for Q2 should be low due to the weaker sales of the iPhone SE than initially expected and component constraints.
Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs such as Xiaomi, OPPO (+OnePlus) and vivo faced a greater component supply crunch, resulting in their shipments falling by 20%, 24% and 29% YoY, respectively. We expect this sluggish performance of Chinese OEMs to continue into the second half of the year due to China's economic slowdown resulting from more transmissible COVID-19 variants and 'zero-COVID' policies. In result, we currently lowered the shipment forecasts for major Chinese OEMs and correspondingly, we also made downward adjustment for shipment forecasts for many of their models in this update.

Published Date: June 2022

Market Outlook | Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) May 2022

Overview:

We expect the 2022 smartphone market to decline 3% to 1,357 million units from last year's. On the macroeconomic front, expectations for recovery are now sharply falling and more concerns are spreading centered on China's prolonged recession and the Ukraine crisis. By such pushes that make the world economy deeper into a slowdown, this year's smartphone market is expected to contract unavoidably.

Among the factors likely to influence the market in 2022, we consider the following to be the most critical: 

  • The continued impact on smartphone OEMs due to the shortage of some components.
  • China's economic slowdown resulting from more transmissible COVID-19 variants and "zero-COVID" policies.
  • Uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia war.  
  • Global financial pressures, including inflation and possible recession.

This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2022-2026.

Table of Contents: 

  • Track Changes – Smartphone
  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Tech Pivot
    • Global
    • North America
    • Caribbean & Latin America
    • Middle East & Africa
    • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
    • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile
  • Definitions

Number of Pages: 12

Published Date: May 2022 

MOBILE DEVICE OUTLOOK March 2022 Update (Model Level Forecast)

Overview:

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

Apple released four variants Q3 2021, as in the previous year and the proportion of sales by model is similar to the previous year. They will teminate the Mini variant from 2022 onward. Instead, it will show two variants each for 6.1" and 6.7" screen sizes, with a total of four new models expected to launch in the third quarter of 2022. While maintaining its premium brand image, Apple is expected to continue its efforts to diversify its lineup of new models and to cover a wider price range by using older models. This could contribute to increasing brand share in emerging markets such as SEA, Latam, and MEA.

The S22 series was launched about a month later than the S21. The most premium variant in the series, the S22 Ultra, will encourage existing Note users to replace their devices thanks to the S Pen, and accordingly, the proportion of sales in the series is expected to be larger than in previous years , especially at the beginning of its release. In 2023, its proportion will decrease slightly and the standard model, S22, will occupy the majority again.

Xiaomi increased shipments to strengthen mid-high during 2021, but demand fell short of it. In 2022, it is expected that they will temporarily put their high-end strengthening strategy on hold and turn to the mid-low side to focus on maintaining volume and market share.

Published Date: March 2022

Mobile Handset Forecast by Region (Long Term) Mar 2022

Overview:

When forecasting the smartphone market, we aim for a balanced forecast. This is where there is a roughly equal probability that the next change we make to the market size will be either up or down. Through many years of forecasting this market, we have observed that rarely all of the bad things that can possibly happen, do happen. Similarly, rarely all of the positive things that can happen do happen. Typically we see a pattern of some good and some bad things. In the current environment, it can be hard to find the positives, but they are out there. Looking into 2022, the market remains volatile. There are several factors that are likely to continue to weigh on the market. We will therefore be updating the headline forecast more frequently as we come to better understand the full ramifications of further blows to stable market conditions that we had come to expect in the period pre-2020.

The global smartphone market in 2021 was 1,392 m units, an annual growth rate of 4.5%.. Despite pent-up demand for smartphones, 2021 was still lower than expected growth rate, mainly due to a re-emergence of COVID-19 mutations, a shortage of key semiconductor components and a continued sluggishness in the China market.

Among the clear and concerning factors likely to influence the market in 2022, we consider the following to be most critical factors in 2022:;

  • The continued impact on smartphone OEMs due to the shortage of some components.
  • The impact of the omicron (and potentially other) variants and the response of governments – especially China – as they deal with fast-moving outbreaks. .
  • The spread of market uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia crisis. 
  • Global financial pressures including inflation, and possibly recession.
  • China has not recovered to the same level it was pre-pandemic. We must determine the new base level for China’s smartphone market.

Published Date: March 2022

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