Market Outlook – Smartphone Model level forecast, June 2024

The global smartphone market has shown signs of recovery since late 2023 after a prolonged period of sluggishness. Q1 2024 smartphone shipments increased 6% YoY, backed by the strong performance of emerging markets like MEA and CALA, which continued strong momentum, while Europe, especially Central and Eastern Europe, grew the most compared to a difficult Q1 2023. Consumer demand in these markets has been growing gradually and inventory levels have improved. With some return of consumer confidence underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions, we expect the market to grow by 3.7% annually in 2024. As most OEMs closed 2023 with a relatively healthier inventory level, they will likely keep rebuilding their stock in preparation for a potential demand increase across the year.

  • Apple is planning to apply On-Device generative AI and significantly improve microphone performance to maximize GenAI use with iPhone 16 series. Based on the abundant IB of the iPhone 13, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be able to achieve the higher shipments than its predecessor in the first year of release.
  • Samsung’s foldable smartphone shipments declined 42% YoY in Q1 2024, mostly due to stiff competition from OEMs such as Huawei in the Chinese market and Motorola in the US. However, the first and second quarters are seasonally low for Samsung’s foldable portfolio. Therefore, reclaiming first place from Huawei in Q2 2024 will be a difficult task. However, we expect Samsung to regain first place in Q3 2024 following the launch of its upcoming foldable lineup the Galaxy Z6 series.
  • A new sub-brand will be introduced in Q3, the online-centric XingYao lineup is expected to help Huawei gain more share in the mid-to-low segments.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: June 2024



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