Market Outlook – Smartphone Model Level Forecast, March 2024

The global smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023, recording its lowest level in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry throughout the year. However, we have seen momentum building in H2 2023, with Q4 2023 consolidating gains and pointing to an expected recovery in 2024. The smartphone market grew 6.8% YoY and exceeding earlier expectations. Samsung retained the spot as the world’s top smartphone player annually by a tiny margin in 2023. In terms of regional performance, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) exhibited the highest annual shipment growth while North America (NAM) experienced the greatest decline.

  • Apple achieved better shipments than expected in Q4 2023, growing 2% YoY, despite increased competition from Huawei. While Apple did lose some share in the China premium market segment to Huawei, it was not sufficient to significantly slow Apple’s global momentum. Apple is expected to keep growing in 2024, backed by an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem and compatibility between devices in advanced markets with refresh lineups and in emerging regions with old models, respectively.
    For the iPhone 16 series, Apple is expected to apply on-device generative AI and significantly improve microphone performance to maximize its use. Based on the abundant IB of the iPhone 13, the iPhone 16 series will be able to achieve the higher shipments than its predecessors in the first year of release.
  • The successful introduction of the On-Device AI concept will play a crucial role in Samsung‘s efforts to gain a larger share in the premium market with the S24. It is projected that the shipment of the S24 during its launch year will exceed that of the S23 by 10%. Furthermore, with the improved responsiveness of Samsung’s self-developed Exynos 2400 compared to its predecessor, Samsung will be better positioned to expand its portfolio of AI-capable devices in the future.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.

Published Date: March 2023



Log in to check if this content is included in your content subscription


Associate Director

Term of Use and Privacy Policy

Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited


In order to access Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited (Company or We hereafter) Web sites, you may be asked to complete a registration form. You are required to provide contact information which is used to enhance the user experience and determine whether you are a paid subscriber or not.
Personal Information When you register on we ask you for personal information. We use this information to provide you with the best advice and highest-quality service as well as with offers that we think are relevant to you. We may also contact you regarding a Web site problem or other customer service-related issues. We do not sell, share or rent personal information about you collected on Company Web sites.

How to unsubscribe and Termination

You may request to terminate your account or unsubscribe to any email subscriptions or mailing lists at any time. In accessing and using this Website, User agrees to comply with all applicable laws and agrees not to take any action that would compromise the security or viability of this Website. The Company may terminate User’s access to this Website at any time for any reason. The terms hereunder regarding Accuracy of Information and Third Party Rights shall survive termination.

Website Content and Copyright

This Website is the property of Counterpoint and is protected by international copyright law and conventions. We grant users the right to access and use the Website, so long as such use is for internal information purposes, and User does not alter, copy, disseminate, redistribute or republish any content or feature of this Website. User acknowledges that access to and use of this Website is subject to these TERMS OF USE and any expanded access or use must be approved in writing by the Company.
– Passwords are for user’s individual use
– Passwords may not be shared with others
– Users may not store documents in shared folders.
– Users may not redistribute documents to non-users unless otherwise stated in their contract terms.

Changes or Updates to the Website

The Company reserves the right to change, update or discontinue any aspect of this Website at any time without notice. Your continued use of the Website after any such change constitutes your agreement to these TERMS OF USE, as modified.
Accuracy of Information: While the information contained on this Website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, We disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. User assumes sole responsibility for the use it makes of this Website to achieve his/her intended results.

Third Party Links: This Website may contain links to other third party websites, which are provided as additional resources for the convenience of Users. We do not endorse, sponsor or accept any responsibility for these third party websites, User agrees to direct any concerns relating to these third party websites to the relevant website administrator.

Cookies and Tracking

We may monitor how you use our Web sites. It is used solely for purposes of enabling us to provide you with a personalized Web site experience.
This data may also be used in the aggregate, to identify appropriate product offerings and subscription plans.
Cookies may be set in order to identify you and determine your access privileges. Cookies are simply identifiers. You have the ability to delete cookie files from your hard disk drive.