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Service: Macro and geo-political tracker

China Macro Snapshot – January 2024

Overview:

China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.

January’s report covers key topics including China’s latest annual economic work conference, the saga of its new gaming regulation draft, and Moody’s downgrades of China’s sovereign bonds and state-owned firms’ outlook.

Table of Contents:

  • China Communist Party Stressed Stability and Growth for 2024 Economy
  • China Quickly Revokes Mobile Gaming Regulation Draft to Salvage Business Sentiment
  • Moody’s cuts outlook on China’s sovereign bonds, banks and state-owned firms due to concerns over the level of debt
  • Chart of the Month

Number of Pages: 6

Published Date: January 2024

Counterpoint Macro Index – Q3 2023

Overview:

Counterpoint‘s Macro Index rose to 80.71 in September from 79.47 in June, helped by improving economic conditions in the US and EU, as well as improving tech business sentiment and consumer sentiment.

Global economic indicators in Q3 2023 improved in the US and EU as central banks slowed their tightening cycles and suggested that rates are nearing their peak. Additionally, CPI and PPI remain much below their post-pandemic highs. Conditions worsened in China where crisis in the housing sector and declining exports and domestic consumption challenge growth prospects.

Global Tech Sentiment improved through the quarter. Improving inventory situation and orders from OEMs helped conditions. Additionally, the successful IPO for ARM and Cisco’s acquisition of Splunk helped to add some needed excitement to the market as mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs have slowed in the current environment.

Table of Contents:

  • Counterpoint Macro Index, Q3 2023
  • Overview
  • Tech Sector Analysis
  • Regional Analysis
  • Constituent Indices
  • Contacts

Number of Pages: 51

Published Date: October 2023

Counterpoint Macro Index – July 2023

Overview:

Counterpoint's Macro Index rose to 80.05 in July from 79.53 in June, driven by robust economic data in the US and Europe, which fostered hopes of a soft landing for the global economy. The tech supply chain was the other contributing factor, particularly on the semiconductor front, as the downturn may finally show signs of reversing.

Global economic indicators remained robust in the US and Europe, as consumer and business confidence continued to rise, accompanied by easing inflation. However, China's economy began to exhibit signs of a potential recession.

On domestic politics and policy, there was a slight dip in various regions, including the US, as partisan politics remained tense while the Federal Reserve persisted in its interest rate hikes to stabilize inflation expectations. Several European countries, including France, the Netherlands, Spain and Greece, grappled with internal political uncertainties. In an attempt to bolster its economy, China released numerous policy documents aimed at stimulating the market, though these received lukewarm support as many await more substantial measures.

There were several improvements in international politics in July. US-China relations seemed to have progressed past the “balloon-gate” incident, with working-level officials re-establishing contact. While NATO refrained from extending membership to Ukraine to avoid provoking Russia, it did reaffirm security guarantees to the former.

The AI fervor in the Global Tech sector persisted in July, as additional companies, including Meta and Apple, unveiled their AI-related initiatives. Tepid demand is expected for tech products in the upcoming quarters. However, the supply chain, particularly in semiconductors, are showing signs of a rebound.

Table of Contents

  • Counterpoint Macro Index, July 2023
  • Overview
  • July 2023 Summary
  • Risk-Impact Map
  • Scenario Analysis
  • Regional Analysis
  • Constituent Indices
  • Contacts

Number of Pages: 34

Publication Date: August 2023

CHIPS Act Part II: The National Semiconductor Technology Center and National Advanced Packaging and Manufacturing Program

Overview:

This report examines the role of the National Semiconductor Technology Center and the National Advanced Packaging and Manufacturing Program, both of which were authorized by the Chips Act. The goals, opportunities, and shortcomings of each program are evaluated and further actions are considered.

Table of Contents: 

  • Introduction
    • CHIPS and Science Act
  • National Semiconductor Technology Center
    • What it is
    • Who benefits
  • National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program
    • What it is
    • Packaging trends
    • Packaging chokepoints
  • Potential future policies

Number of Pages: 20

Publication Date: July 2023

Counterpoint Macro Intelligence Review – April 2023

Overview:

This report series provides an overview of the key headlines impacting the tech and business sectors over the past month, and likely short to medium term trajectory of how events may fold. The key issues covered in the April report include: TikTok, Donald Trump, Alibaba, Oil Supply & Prices, and Apple.

Table of Contents:

  • TikTok’s Fate in the US
  • Donald Trump’s Legal Battle
  • Alibaba’s Breakup
  • OPEC’s Oil Production Cuts
  • Apple I: India
  • Apple II: Banking

Number of Pages: 46

Publication Date: May 2023

Counterpoint Macro Index – March 2023

Overview:

Counterpoint’s Macro Index rose to over 77 in March 2023, from 76.25 in February, despite ongoing challenges to the global economy and politics.

Over the course of Q1 2023, the Index shifted sideways within a thin range. However, the underlying factors moved substantially: consumer and business sentiment rebounded globally, tech sentiment retreated a little, but politics and policy-related factors deteriorated sharply. This is the first QoQ rise in the Index in over a year, though conditions are still uncertain and remain decisively in negative territory.

Significant progress has been made towards reining in inflation in the developed world, but the corporate outlook fell considerably due to turmoil in the financial markets. Global politics remain the primary drag on the index as War in Ukraine drags on and US-China tech war escalates.

Macro conditions are worse than what was initially forecast in our Q4 2022 update. As a result, the V-shaped rebound is gradually turning into an L-shaped grind.

Table of Contents:

1. Counterpoint Macro Index, March 2023

2. Q1 2023 Summary

3. Key Movers

4. Risk-Impact Map

4. Scenario Analysis

5. US Update

6. China Update

7. Europe Update

8. Consumer Sentiment

9. General Business Sentiment

10. Tech Business Sentiment

11. Policy, Market and Global Environment

Number of Pages: 35

Publication Date: April 2023

CHIPS Act: The Winners, the losers and what policies might come next

Overview:

This report examines the US CHIPS Act, including the background and context that brought about the legislation, the contents of the bill, the possible winners, losers, and the potential consequences of the bill on the industry. 

Contents:

  • Background
  • Introduction
  • How did we get here?
  • Semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem
  • The CHIPS and Science Act
  • Purpose
  • Details
  • Likely winners
  • Likely losers
  • Impact on tech ecosystem
  • Potential future policies

Number of Pages: 29

Publication Date: April 2023

Counterpoint Macro Intelligence Review – March 2023

Overview

This new report series provides an overview of the key headlines impacting the tech and business sectors over the past month, and likely short to medium term trajectory of how events may fold.  The key issues covered in our inaugural report include: US CHIPS Act, China’s ‘Two Sessions’, US Inflation Reduction Act, Banking Crisis, Meta, Foxconn and Adani Group.

Table of Contents

  • US CHIPS Act Update
  • China’s ‘Two Sessions’
  • US Inflation Reduction Act and EV Manufacturing Update
  • Silicon Valley Bank and Banking Crisis
  • Meta’s Troubles and Layoffs
  • Foxconn’s Second Factory in India
  • Adani Group Debt Crisis

Number of Pages: 45

Publication Date: April 2023

China National People’s Congress Sessions, 2023

Overview:

The report has summarized the important policies announced during the National People’s Congress session in 2023 and analyzed how they are going to affect the technology businesses and the industry.  

Table of Contents:

  • Overview
  • Economy
  • Boosting Technology Self-reliance
  • Restructuring Government Institutions
  • Diplomacy: Back to World

Number of Pages: 29

Published Date: March 2023

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