Overview:
Counterpoint’s Macro Index rose to over 77 in March 2023, from 76.25 in February, despite ongoing challenges to the global economy and politics.
Over the course of Q1 2023, the Index shifted sideways within a thin range. However, the underlying factors moved substantially: consumer and business sentiment rebounded globally, tech sentiment retreated a little, but politics and policy-related factors deteriorated sharply. This is the first QoQ rise in the Index in over a year, though conditions are still uncertain and remain decisively in negative territory.
Significant progress has been made towards reining in inflation in the developed world, but the corporate outlook fell considerably due to turmoil in the financial markets. Global politics remain the primary drag on the index as War in Ukraine drags on and US-China tech war escalates.
Macro conditions are worse than what was initially forecast in our Q4 2022 update. As a result, the V-shaped rebound is gradually turning into an L-shaped grind.
Table of Contents:
1. Counterpoint Macro Index, March 2023
2. Q1 2023 Summary
3. Key Movers
4. Risk-Impact Map
4. Scenario Analysis
5. US Update
6. China Update
7. Europe Update
8. Consumer Sentiment
9. General Business Sentiment
10. Tech Business Sentiment
11. Policy, Market and Global Environment
Number of Pages: 35
Publication Date: April 2023