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China Macro Snapshot – March2024

Overview

China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.

The April report covers key topics, including China’s GDP growth target for 2024, new high-tech industrial policy, global CEOs visit to China and Xiaomi EV launch.

Table of Contents

  • China Defined “New Quality Productive Forces” to Prelude New High Tech Subsidy Scheme
  • China Embarked on Fiscal Easing to Reach Long-term Growth Target
  • A Group of 18 American CEOs and Business Leaders Meet Xi Jinping after the Annual China Development Forum
  • Xiaomi officially launched its first battery electric vehicle model, the Xiaomi SU7, in March

Number of Pages (if it’s a PDF):9

Published Date: April 10, 2024

China Macro Snapshot – March2024

Overview:

China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.

The March report covers key topics, including Chinese government’s efforts to arrest stock fall, policies to boost the econmy and automakers agressive price cuts for EVs. 

 Table of Contents :

  1. China Used Various Measures to Arrest the Stock Fall. 
  2. China Significantly Lowered Long-term Prime Loan Rate to Stabilize House Market. 
  3. BYD and other automakers introduce aggressive discounts on new PHEV launches.

Published Date: March 7, 2024

China Macro Snapshot – February 2024

Overview:

China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.

The February report covers key topics, including the latest meeting between top officials of the US and China, the election in Taiwan and its impact, and China’s latest measures to arrest the falling stock market and the economy.

Table of Contents:

  • China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Bangkok on January 27
  • Taiwan Presidential and Legislature Speaker Elections Yield Divided Government
  • China’s GDP grew 5.2% YoY in 2023; Patchy recovery promotes stimulus measures
  • China’s stock market plummeted more than 6% MoM to the lowest in 5 years promoting officials to talk up the market
  • China Opened Up to Foreign Investment and Tourists Amid Economic Setbacks

Number of Pages: 12

Published Date: February 2024

Counterpoint Macro Index Report, Q4 2023

Overview 

Counterpoint’s Macro Index improves again in Q4, rising to 86.17 from 80.99 in September. The three-month and twelve-month outlooks have also been bumped up, reflecting better conditions for the global tech industry. 

This uptick can be attributed to improved economic indicators across most major economies, mainly due to lower inflation, leading to the conclusion by markets that the current round of interest rate hikes has ended. However, China remains an outlier, which is still grappling with deflationary pressures.

 Table of Contents

  • Counterpoint Macro Index Q4 2023
  • Overview
  • Tech Sector Analysis
  • Regional Analysis
  • Constituent Indices

Number of Pages: 52

China Macro Snapshot – January 2024

Overview:

China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.

January’s report covers key topics including China’s latest annual economic work conference, the saga of its new gaming regulation draft, and Moody’s downgrades of China’s sovereign bonds and state-owned firms’ outlook.

Table of Contents:

  • China Communist Party Stressed Stability and Growth for 2024 Economy
  • China Quickly Revokes Mobile Gaming Regulation Draft to Salvage Business Sentiment
  • Moody’s cuts outlook on China’s sovereign bonds, banks and state-owned firms due to concerns over the level of debt
  • Chart of the Month

Number of Pages: 6

Published Date: January 2024

Counterpoint Macro Index – Q3 2023

Overview:

Counterpoint‘s Macro Index rose to 80.71 in September from 79.47 in June, helped by improving economic conditions in the US and EU, as well as improving tech business sentiment and consumer sentiment.

Global economic indicators in Q3 2023 improved in the US and EU as central banks slowed their tightening cycles and suggested that rates are nearing their peak. Additionally, CPI and PPI remain much below their post-pandemic highs. Conditions worsened in China where crisis in the housing sector and declining exports and domestic consumption challenge growth prospects.

Global Tech Sentiment improved through the quarter. Improving inventory situation and orders from OEMs helped conditions. Additionally, the successful IPO for ARM and Cisco’s acquisition of Splunk helped to add some needed excitement to the market as mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs have slowed in the current environment.

Table of Contents:

  • Counterpoint Macro Index, Q3 2023
  • Overview
  • Tech Sector Analysis
  • Regional Analysis
  • Constituent Indices
  • Contacts

Number of Pages: 51

Published Date: October 2023

Counterpoint Macro Index – July 2023

Overview:

Counterpoint's Macro Index rose to 80.05 in July from 79.53 in June, driven by robust economic data in the US and Europe, which fostered hopes of a soft landing for the global economy. The tech supply chain was the other contributing factor, particularly on the semiconductor front, as the downturn may finally show signs of reversing.

Global economic indicators remained robust in the US and Europe, as consumer and business confidence continued to rise, accompanied by easing inflation. However, China's economy began to exhibit signs of a potential recession.

On domestic politics and policy, there was a slight dip in various regions, including the US, as partisan politics remained tense while the Federal Reserve persisted in its interest rate hikes to stabilize inflation expectations. Several European countries, including France, the Netherlands, Spain and Greece, grappled with internal political uncertainties. In an attempt to bolster its economy, China released numerous policy documents aimed at stimulating the market, though these received lukewarm support as many await more substantial measures.

There were several improvements in international politics in July. US-China relations seemed to have progressed past the “balloon-gate” incident, with working-level officials re-establishing contact. While NATO refrained from extending membership to Ukraine to avoid provoking Russia, it did reaffirm security guarantees to the former.

The AI fervor in the Global Tech sector persisted in July, as additional companies, including Meta and Apple, unveiled their AI-related initiatives. Tepid demand is expected for tech products in the upcoming quarters. However, the supply chain, particularly in semiconductors, are showing signs of a rebound.

Table of Contents

  • Counterpoint Macro Index, July 2023
  • Overview
  • July 2023 Summary
  • Risk-Impact Map
  • Scenario Analysis
  • Regional Analysis
  • Constituent Indices
  • Contacts

Number of Pages: 34

Publication Date: August 2023

CHIPS Act Part II: The National Semiconductor Technology Center and National Advanced Packaging and Manufacturing Program

Overview:

This report examines the role of the National Semiconductor Technology Center and the National Advanced Packaging and Manufacturing Program, both of which were authorized by the Chips Act. The goals, opportunities, and shortcomings of each program are evaluated and further actions are considered.

Table of Contents: 

  • Introduction
    • CHIPS and Science Act
  • National Semiconductor Technology Center
    • What it is
    • Who benefits
  • National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program
    • What it is
    • Packaging trends
    • Packaging chokepoints
  • Potential future policies

Number of Pages: 20

Publication Date: July 2023

Counterpoint Macro Intelligence Review – April 2023

Overview:

This report series provides an overview of the key headlines impacting the tech and business sectors over the past month, and likely short to medium term trajectory of how events may fold. The key issues covered in the April report include: TikTok, Donald Trump, Alibaba, Oil Supply & Prices, and Apple.

Table of Contents:

  • TikTok’s Fate in the US
  • Donald Trump’s Legal Battle
  • Alibaba’s Breakup
  • OPEC’s Oil Production Cuts
  • Apple I: India
  • Apple II: Banking

Number of Pages: 46

Publication Date: May 2023

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