Counterpoint’s Macro Index declined slightly to 88.45 at the end of Q2 2024, from 90.01 in Q1 2024. The three-month outlook is expected to improve slightly. The political environment remains tense, but tech sentiment remains buoyant. We maintain a positive 12-month outlook.
This uptick can be attributed to improving economic prospects across most regions, as inflation continues to trend lower while business activity increases. Tech sentiment remains high due to continued AI frenzy, key semiconductor indicators on the recovery, and a rebound in consumer sentiment. However, global conflict remains tense, while the political situation reaches a boiling point in both the US and Europe.
China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts. The July report covers key topics, including latest update on China economy, the upcoming decision-making conference for economy and China-EU EV conflict.
Table of Contents:
Strong Export Data Support Economic Growth but Other Challenges Remain
China to Hold Key Conference to Set Out Economic Blueprints for Next Year
China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.
The April report covers key topics, including Chinese government’s commitment to real estate industry, IMF’s latest forecast on China and China-EU relationship.
Table of Contents
Chinese Government Sets Up Fund to Purchase Houses Unsold
IMF Increases China GDP Forecast for 2024 and 2025
Xi Jinping Visits France, Attends China-France-EU Trilateral Meeting with Trade Frictions in Focus
China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.
The April report covers key topics, including Chinese central bank’s latest commitment to purchasing government bonds, China’s rising manufacturing PMI and Elon Musk’s surprise and successful visit to China.
Table of Contents:
China Central Bank May Buy Government Bonds to Support Issuances
China Manufacturing PMI Remained Positive for Two Months
Elon Musk Makes Surprise Visit to China, Winning Important Concessions for Tesla
Counterpoint’s Macro Index rose to 88.21 at the end of Q1 2024 from 86.17 in Q4 2023. The three-month outlook remained at the same level from Q4. We expect the index to turn positive by the end of 2024, reflecting better conditions for the global tech industry.
This uptick can be attributed to continued improvement in economic indicators across most major economies, mainly due to lower inflation and a pick up in industrial activity. However, global tensions are on the rise, with many secondary risks that could spiral out of control.
China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.
The April report covers key topics, including China’s GDP growth target for 2024, new high-tech industrial policy, global CEOs visit to China and Xiaomi EV launch.
Table of Contents
China Defined “New Quality Productive Forces” to Prelude New High Tech Subsidy Scheme
China Embarked on Fiscal Easing to Reach Long-term Growth Target
A Group of 18 American CEOs and Business Leaders Meet Xi Jinping after the Annual China Development Forum
Xiaomi officially launched its first battery electric vehicle model, the Xiaomi SU7, in March
China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.
The March report covers key topics, including Chinese government’s efforts to arrest stock fall, policies to boost the econmy and automakers agressive price cuts for EVs.
Table of Contents :
China Used Various Measures to Arrest the Stock Fall.
China Significantly Lowered Long-term Prime Loan Rate to Stabilize House Market.
BYD and other automakers introduce aggressive discounts on new PHEV launches.
China Macro Snapshot is a monthly report that decodes the hottest macro topics in China with potential to impact business operations. In addition to insightful on-the-ground observations, the report provides valuable analysis and analyst forecasts.
The February report covers key topics, including the latest meeting between top officials of the US and China, the election in Taiwan and its impact, and China’s latest measures to arrest the falling stock market and the economy.
Table of Contents:
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Bangkok on January 27
Taiwan Presidential and Legislature Speaker Elections Yield Divided Government
China’s GDP grew 5.2% YoY in 2023; Patchy recovery promotes stimulus measures
China’s stock market plummeted more than 6% MoM to the lowest in 5 years promoting officials to talk up the market
China Opened Up to Foreign Investment and Tourists Amid Economic Setbacks
Counterpoint’s Macro Index improves again in Q4, rising to 86.17 from 80.99 in September. The three-month and twelve-month outlooks have also been bumped up, reflecting better conditions for the global tech industry.
This uptick can be attributed to improved economic indicators across most major economies, mainly due to lower inflation, leading to the conclusion by markets that the current round of interest rate hikes has ended. However, China remains an outlier, which is still grappling with deflationary pressures.
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