Top

iPhone X Drove Apple’s “Revenue Super Cycle”

Cumulative shipments for iPhone X reached 63 Million units by end of Aug 2018 lower than iPhone 6 for similar period since launch but on track to be the most successful revenue and profit generating iPhone ever.

According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service, iPhone X has helped Apple to achieve a revenue super-cycle instead of a volume super-cycle. A phenomenon we predicted here. Cumulative shipments of iPhone X reached 63 million units within ten months of its launch ending August 2018. By comparison, during the iPhone 6 Super Cycle, Apple took only six months to achieve similar volume, post 2014 launch. iPhone 6 shipped 30 million more units than iPhone X during its first 10 months of sales, so iPhone X missed the “volume Super Cycle”.

Exhibit 1: iPhone X missed the iPhone 6 level “Volume Super Cycle”

iPhone X missed the iPhone 6 level “Volume Super Cycle”

However, iPhone X which drove a completely radical new design language helped Apple to command a significantly higher Average Selling Price (ASP) at a point when the overall smartphone market was beginning to saturate.  So, while the fabled volume super-cycle has not materialized, Apple has actually delivered a revenue super-cycle, posting record iPhone revenues and Average Selling Prices (ASPs) since the iPhone X launch. Both iPhone 6 and iPhone X generated almost similar revenues of USD 62 Billion across a similar period (first 10 months). iPhone X is therefore also a factor in Apple becoming the first trillion-dollar company.

Exhibit 2: iPhone X Road to “Revenue Super Cycle”

iPhone X Road to “Revenue Super Cycle”

 

The iPhone X has been well received in the US market with demand reaching an all-time high during the initial months of launch. It was even the #1 best selling model in many developed markets for the initial couple of quarters. However, demand in China only picked-up later, after the New Year, thanks to promotions and offers. Demand for the expensive iPhone X was modest in most of the emerging markets where older-generation iPhones remain popular. iPhone X shipments have been skewed towards traditionally stronger iPhone markets like USA, Japan, China, which contributed to almost two-thirds of the total iPhone X shipments.

In our consumer survey at the launch of iPhone X, Chinese iPhone users expressed strong purchase intentions towards the iPhone X (see here), but low among Android users. However, in markets outside China, iPhone X did well despite the high price-tag, remaining popular across developed markets like the USA, Japan and parts of Western Europe. So while iPhone X didn’t help Apple to substantially grow its user base, it handsomely contributed to both the top and bottom line, and Apple’s market cap. It is therefore hard to deem iPhone X a failure.

Exhibit 3: Cumulative iPhone X Shipments by Top 10 Countries Aug ‘18

Cumulative iPhone X Shipments by Top 10 Countries Aug ‘18

 

Summary:

  • It took iPhone X ten months to cross 60 million shipments but iPhone 6 was the fastest model so far to achieve the same feat in six months from launch.
  • However, both the models generated almost similar revenues during the first ten months after launch and iPhone X on track to surpass iPhone 6 in terms of revenues if we account for remaining months of shipments if any.
  • For Apple, iPhone X contributed to almost one third of the total iPhone shipments and half of total iPhone revenues since launch.
  • USA and China alone contributed to more than half of the total iPhone X shipments.
  • None of the countries from MEA or LATAM figured among top 10 for iPhone X shipments.
  • India contributed to just 1% of the total iPhone X shipments so far.
  • This shows in these large volumes’ emerging markets, Apple needs to recheck its strategy if it wants to grow its user base or top line.
  • Revenue of iPhone X alone was higher than each of the top five smartphone brands except Samsung in the past ten months. The brands were Huawei, OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi.
  • Going forward, we expect Apple to command even higher average selling price (ASP) with the rumoured three new iPhone launches this time.
  • With the introduction of a cheaper LCD model and higher-priced OLED models, the iPhone mix for Apple is likely to drive even more revenue as it enters a refreshed product cycle.

The comprehensive and in-depth Aug 2018 Market Monitor is available for subscribing clients. Please feel free to contact us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our in-depth latest research, insights or press enquiries.

The Market Monitor research is based on sell-in (shipments) estimates based on vendor’s IR results, vendor polling triangulated with sell-through (sales), supply chain checks and secondary research.

 

Analyst Contacts:

Tarun Pathak
+91 9971213665
tarun@counterpointresearch.com

 

Neil Shah

+91 9930218469
neil@counterpointresearch.com

 

Karn Chauhan

+91 9816455600
karn@counterpointresearch.com


Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Tarun is a Research Director with Counterpoint Technology Market Research, based out of Gurgaon (near New Delhi). Tarun has 10 years of work experience with a key focus on the evolving mobile device ecosystem with specialties in Emerging Markets. He understands specific mobile industry nuances, helping clients to navigate through the rapidly changing technological trends. As a Telecom Analyst he has been quoted extensively by the leading media platforms. Tarun holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management, specializing in International Business from the Amity International Business School and is a graduate in Physical Sciences from Jammu University, Jammu in the northern Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir.

Term of Use and Privacy Policy

Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited

Registration

In order to access Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited (Company or We hereafter) Web sites, you may be asked to complete a registration form. You are required to provide contact information which is used to enhance the user experience and determine whether you are a paid subscriber or not.
Personal Information When you register on we ask you for personal information. We use this information to provide you with the best advice and highest-quality service as well as with offers that we think are relevant to you. We may also contact you regarding a Web site problem or other customer service-related issues. We do not sell, share or rent personal information about you collected on Company Web sites.

How to unsubscribe and Termination

You may request to terminate your account or unsubscribe to any email subscriptions or mailing lists at any time. In accessing and using this Website, User agrees to comply with all applicable laws and agrees not to take any action that would compromise the security or viability of this Website. The Company may terminate User’s access to this Website at any time for any reason. The terms hereunder regarding Accuracy of Information and Third Party Rights shall survive termination.

Website Content and Copyright

This Website is the property of Counterpoint and is protected by international copyright law and conventions. We grant users the right to access and use the Website, so long as such use is for internal information purposes, and User does not alter, copy, disseminate, redistribute or republish any content or feature of this Website. User acknowledges that access to and use of this Website is subject to these TERMS OF USE and any expanded access or use must be approved in writing by the Company.
– Passwords are for user’s individual use
– Passwords may not be shared with others
– Users may not store documents in shared folders.
– Users may not redistribute documents to non-users unless otherwise stated in their contract terms.

Changes or Updates to the Website

The Company reserves the right to change, update or discontinue any aspect of this Website at any time without notice. Your continued use of the Website after any such change constitutes your agreement to these TERMS OF USE, as modified.
Accuracy of Information: While the information contained on this Website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, We disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. User assumes sole responsibility for the use it makes of this Website to achieve his/her intended results.

Third Party Links: This Website may contain links to other third party websites, which are provided as additional resources for the convenience of Users. We do not endorse, sponsor or accept any responsibility for these third party websites, User agrees to direct any concerns relating to these third party websites to the relevant website administrator.

Cookies and Tracking

We may monitor how you use our Web sites. It is used solely for purposes of enabling us to provide you with a personalized Web site experience.
This data may also be used in the aggregate, to identify appropriate product offerings and subscription plans.
Cookies may be set in order to identify you and determine your access privileges. Cookies are simply identifiers. You have the ability to delete cookie files from your hard disk drive.