Global smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to shrink by 5% YoY to reach 1.2 billion.
However, the shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY in Q4 2023.
The iPhone 15 Pro series’ share in the overall iPhone 15 series is projected to increase to 65% in Q4 2023.
India will become Apple’s new growth focus, but the brand’s underperformance in China will hinder its growth in 2024.
London, San Diego, Seoul, New Delhi, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong – November 30, 2023
Global smartphone shipments in 2023 are projected to decline 5% YoY to reach 1.2 billion, the lowest level in almost a decade, according to Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone 360 Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast. However, the shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY in Q4 2023 to reach 312 million units.
North America (NAM) and Europe’s shipments are expected to remain stagnant. But China and emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa (MEA) and India have managed to break out from their declines and will recover to become the new drivers of growth in the smartphone market from Q4 2023 onwards.
Apple, the usual market leader in Q4 with its newly launched series, is expected to record a volume decline of 3% YoY in Q4 2023, mainly due to Huawei’s aggressive expansion in China and prolonged delay in smartphone upgrades in Japan. However, Apple will try to offset the underperformance in volume terms by growing in value terms with a better product mix. In Q4 2022, the shipment share of the iPhone 14 Pro series in the entire iPhone 14 series was 61%. In Q4 2023, however, the iPhone 15 Pro series’ portion in the iPhone 15 series is projected to increase to 65%.
Global Smartphone Market Shipments, 2013-2024F
Source: Counterpoint Research
After destocking efforts end with a relatively healthy inventory by the year-end, smartphone shipments in 2024 are projected to grow by 3% YoY. We can also expect a recovery focused on emerging markets, backed by increasing consumer confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions.
Apple will be just in line with the market growth in 2024 while facing pressures in its traditional markets. The retention of high interest rates in the US, which hit consumer spending, and intensifying competition in China’s premium smartphone market, mainly due to Huawei, are expected to hinder Apple’s growth throughout 2024.
Huawei, driven by its newly launched Mate 60 5G series and older P-series 4G devices, recorded an enormous success in Q3 2023. Assuming that Huawei can expand the production of its Kirin SoCs via partnerships, the brand is expected to continue to grow 37% YoY in 2024.
Associate Director Liz Lee said, “India, maintaining its momentum for premiumization, is expected to become Apple’s new growth focus. Apple’s India shipments are predicted to grow 23% YoY in 2024. However, due to its underperformance against Huawei in China, Apple’s global market share will unavoidably decline slightly YoY in Q4 2023 and across 2024.”
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Europe’s smartphone shipments declined 11% YoY in Q3 2023.
Samsung touched its lowest Q3 shipments since 2011.
Apple captured a higher market share despite its lowest Q3 shipments since 2014.
HONOR was back in the top five after three years with strong growth in Western Europe.
London, New Delhi, Jakarta, Boston, Toronto, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – November 20, 2023
Europe’s smartphone shipments declined 11% YoY in Q3 2023, according to the latest report from Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor Service. Western Europe declined by 8%, indicating a slight recovery from the 14% decline in the previous quarter. However, Eastern Europe declined by 15% due to continued economic and geopolitical challenges.
Commenting on the overall market, Research Analyst Harshit Rastogi said, “Q3 2023 saw the lowest Q3 smartphone shipments since 2011. However, some OEMs have managed to gain a foothold in the market, such as Transsion brands TECNO and Infinix (particularly in Russia), while HONOR is doing well in Western Europe. Even as the market shares of top players remain the same, Chinese OEMs are switching ranks among themselves.”
Commenting on the outlook, Associate Director Jan Stryjak said, “While the market continued to decline, major launches like the iPhone 15 series and Samsung’s fifth-generation foldables softened the fall. The rate of decline is slowing and, while we aren’t holding out a return to growth just yet, we are optimistic about a strong end to the year in Q4. Economic conditions continue to be tough, though, and people are holding on to their devices for longer than ever. Therefore, we expect the market to remain muted for the foreseeable future.”
Market summary for Q3 2023
Samsung declined 15% YoY and reached its lowest Q3 shipments since 2011. The decline was mitigated by the launch of its new foldables, which received a warm reception in the region.
Apple reached its highest Q3 share at 24% despite declining by 3% YoY and touching its lowest Q3 shipments since 2014. The OEM will likely lead in the coming quarter owing to pent-up upgrade demand for the iPhone 15 series.
Xiaomi declined by 13% in Q3 2023 but remained the top player in Eastern Europe, capturing 35% of the market. The brand is also facing backlash in some Western European markets (like Finland) due to its continued presence in the Russian market.
HONOR was the only brand among the top five to grow YoY, inching closer to levels before its split from Huawei and entering the top five. The brand is likely to take market share from other Chinese OEMs (like OPPO).
Transsion brands TECNO and Infinix surged in the region, growing 192% and 518% respectively, with Russia being the primary market for both. In the coming quarters, the competition among the Chinese OEMs will intensify even as parallel imports sustain the market for Samsung and Apple.
OPPO’s uncertainties in the region were reflected in its shipments, which declined 23% YoY. However, Eastern Europe limited the brand’s regional decline with 27% growth. In the coming quarters, the brand will likely face more issues in Western Europe.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Global smartphone revenues remained flat YoY at just over $100 billion in Q3 2023.
Apple led the global smartphone market with record Q3 revenue and revenue share.
Samsung, which led the market in terms of shipment share, took the second spot in terms of revenue, which stood at 18%.
Growing shipments helped Chinese OEMs such as Xiaomi, HONOR and Huawei see higher revenues.
London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, Beijing, Denver, Buenos Aires – Nov 3, 2023.
Global smartphone market revenues remained flat YoY despite growing by 15% QoQ to just over $100 billion in Q3 2023. Apple led the market with 43% share of global smartphone revenues, its highest-ever for a calendar Q3. This was despite Apple’s latest iPhone 15 series being available for one less week in the third quarter of 2023 compared with its predecessor in the same period of the last year. This translated into Apple also clocking its highest-ever share of global smartphone revenue for a September-ending quarter.
Commenting on evolving market dynamics, Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Walia noted, “Pro Max being the best-selling variant of the iPhone 15 series contributed to Apple also achieving its highest-ever Q3 operating profit. However, its global smartphone operating profit share remained flat due to a resurgence of Huawei and HONOR, and an increased focus on profitability by other Chinese OEMs such as Xiaomi and OPPO. Consequently, the global smartphone operating profit reached an all-time high, signaling more definitely how the smartphone market has adjusted to the post-pandemic trend of lower shipments.”
Samsung’s ASP grew 4% YoY thanks to the successful launch of Fold 5, maintained momentum in S23 series’ sales, and a higher flagship share in major product lineups. Nevertheless, an 8% shipment decline in the same period, offset the ASP increase, causing Samsung’s revenue to decline by 4% annually.
While OPPO’s focus on phones with higher ASPs, such as foldables — of which the OPPO Find N2 Flip is the top-selling in China — is helping it achieve profitability, a slowdown in its expansion outside of China and India has brought about a YoY shipment decline, and OPPO’s smartphone revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 being the lowest since the pandemic. vivo, while remaining profitable, has faced greater challenge in its home country, China, where its promotions have been less aggressive than HONOR and Xiaomi. Consequently, vivo’s smartphone revenue fell 12% YoY, and is almost half of Q3 2021.
Xiaomi is the only top five smartphone brand to see shipment increases both QoQ and YoY in Q3 2023 as it strengthened its positions in key markets such as China and India, offered more affordable mid-range products at promotional prices to both retailers and consumers and on the back of strong sales of the Redmi K and Note series. Consequently, it achieved both revenue and operating profit growth both sequentially and annually.
Research Director Jeff Fieldhack commented, “Counterpoint Research estimates that the China smartphone market declined about 3% during the quarter. Apple’s China revenues fell 2.5% during the quarter. Considering the increased competition from Huawei 5G devices, this is a good signal for Apple and the iPhone 15 series. Especially since the Pro Max and Pro were supply-constrained.”
The full impact of the iPhone 15 series is yet to be seen during the global holiday season expected to be boosted by upgrades from iPhone 11 and 12 users. While the latest iPhone series had underperformed in China in the launch quarter due to a shorter pre-holiday shopping period coupled with supply mismatches on the Pro Max, it could see improvement in the year-ending quarter with a strong 11.11 sales event performance which should also benefit other Chinese smartphone vendors. The elongated festive season in India would boost shipments and revenues in the world’s second-largest smartphone market where pent-up demand and 5G upgrades will also contribute to growth. On the whole, the global smartphone market could end the year with cyclical growth.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Global smartphone market grew 19% YoY but declined by 7% QoQ as 329 million units were shipped, led by Samsung.
Xiaomi eclipses 50 million smartphones, becoming the world’s second-largest smartphone brand for the first time ever.
Samsung retained the number one spot with shipments reaching 58 million units in Q2 2021, however, its market share declined to 18% as compared to 22% in Q1 2021 as its shipments declined by 24% QoQ.
realme grew by 135% YoY and 17% QoQ, crossing cumulative shipments of 100 million smartphones since its entry into the smartphone market.
Global smartphone shipment revenues grew by 25% YoY to $96 billion in Q2 2021 setting a second-quarter record.
Seoul, Taipei, Beijing, London, Denver, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Hong Kong – July 29th, 2021
Global smartphone shipments declined by 7% QoQ in Q2 2021, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service. This was primarily due to ongoing component shortages as well as the implementation or extension of COVID-19 restrictions across Asia and Europe. Shipments, however, grew by 19% YoY as inoculation rates increased in several major economies preventing the need for lockdowns as stringent as those seen in the same quarter of last year.
Commenting on OEM rankings, Research Director, Tarun Pathak noted, “While Samsung retained the top spot, its market share fell by over 3% to 18% in Q2 2021. Shipments were down due to weak seasonal demand in some of its key regions such as India, Central and Latin America and Southeast Asia followed by production disruption in Vietnam due to COVID-19. Xiaomi had its best-ever quarter as it was able to increase its market share in China, Southeast Asia and Europe. While Apple fell to the third spot, it captured record second-quarter shipments thanks to persistent demand and supply for its iPhone 12 series. OPPO and vivo retained their spots in the top five as OPPO continued expanding to overseas markets and vivo managed to lead the China market for the second quarter in a row.”
Highlighting the revenue dynamics, Research Analyst, Aman Chaudhary noted, “Global smartphone wholesale shipment revenues eclipsed $96 billion*, up 25% YoY but declined 16% sequentially. This comes at a time when the industry was facing supply constraints. Apple captured a record second-quarter revenue share of 41% driven by continuing demand for the iPhone 12 Series followed by Samsung, OPPO, Xiaomi and vivo. However, Xiaomi had a strong quarter in terms of revenue as well, becoming the only brand within the top five to grow its revenue sequentially. It captured its highest-ever revenue share of over 9% driven by the strong performance of Redmi Note and the Mi 11 series.”
Commenting on Xiaomi’s record shipments, Senior Analyst, Harmeet Singh Walia noted, “Xiaomi crossed 50 million shipments for the first time ever driven by a combination of premium and low-to-mid price segment devices. Xiaomi’s exceptional performance comes despite a decline in India due to the spread of new COVID-19 variants. The increased shipments can be attributed to its growth in regions including Europe, Southeast Asia and Central and Latin America where it captured market share vacated by Samsung and Huawei. Southeast Asia and Europe were bright spots for Xiaomi as demand for mid-tier devices increased during the quarter.”
Key Takeaways:
Samsung’s quarterly shipments declined by 24% QoQ and grew by a meagre 7% YoY reaching 57.9 million units in Q2 2021 due to supply constraints. Samsung’s revenue fell by 30% QoQ despite increasing by 7% YoY in Q2 2021. Samsung is diversifying its product mix and channel strategy in regions such as India, Europe and Central and Latin America. Samsung has also shifted focus towards premium devices over the mid-range series on the supply side in regions such as the US where supply constraints and low inventory limited its growth.
Xiaomi recorded a QoQ shipment growth of 8% while its shipments grew by a staggering 98% YoY driven by the strong demand for Redmi 9, Note 9 and Note 10 series. Demand for its premium Mi 11 series remained strong as well. This mix of premium and lower-to-mid segment devices enabled Xiaomi to achieve its highest-ever smartphone revenue in Q2 2021.
Apple’s smartphone shipments fell by 18% QoQ but grew by 30% YoY to reach 48.9 million units in Q2 2021. This is because demand for iPhone 12 series remained high while its supply was not hit as severely by chip shortages because of its strong industry relationships, careful supply chain management, expedited shipping, and ability to cut days from factory to point-of-sale. Apple saw its revenue increase by 52% YoY.
OPPO’s shipments declined by 12% QoQ to 33.6 million units in Q2 2021. Its market share declined to 10% compared with last quarter’s 11%. However, driven by its global expansion and steady performance in China, it saw a growth of 37% compared with the same quarter last year when it enjoyed 9% market share. Following the shipment trends, OPPO’s YoY revenue also declined by 10% QoQ while increasing by over 50% YoY.
vivo‘s shipments declined by 8% QoQ but grew by 44% YoY to reach 32.5 million units in Q2 2021. vivo’s growth was driven by a strong performance in the China market, where it has retained the leadership position for a second consecutive quarter. vivo saw a quarterly decline in revenues of 10%, in line with the decline in its shipments over the same period. However, it saw YoY revenue growth of 69% driven by solid performances of its mid-tier models such as S9, Y52s and Y31.
Among other major OEMs, OnePlus, realme, and Lenovo Group grew the fastest. OnePlus grew by 170% YoY in Q2 2021 with its Nord N series doing particularly well in the North America and Western Europe markets. realme grew by 135% YoY in Q2 2021 as a result of its continuing success in China as well as its expansion in Southeast Asia where its C-series, launched in March this year, did exceptionally well. realme also reached the landmark of hitting 100 million in cumulative shipments since launch. Apart from this, it also reached 50 million units in cumulative shipments in India during the quarter, the fastest by any brand so far in India. Lenovo Group grew by 110% thanks to the success of its Moto E7 Plus in Latin America and Moto G Play 2021 in North America.
*Preliminary revenue, based on wholesale pricing.
Note: All shipments are preliminary and subject to change.
For press comments and inquiries please reach out to press (at) counterpointresearch.com
You can also visit our Data Section (updated quarterly) to view the smartphone market share Globally and from the USA, China, and India.
Some of our other regional smartphone market analysis for Q2 2021 can be found below:
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
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