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Connected Vehicle 2022 Summit: From ADAS to Autonomous Mobility, Here are Some Key Takeaways

India’s Connected Vehicle event is back offline after two years. Held in Bengaluru from May 4 to May 6, the event saw attendance from the chipset, NAD module, telematics, cybersecurity and mapping domains, besides regulatory bodies and communication service providers within the connected and autonomous vehicles ecosystem. Analysts from Counterpoint Research were also present. Here are their key takeaways from the sessions held at the event.

Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric and Smart Mobility

India is lagging in connected car penetration (17%) compared to the global market (43%). However, the country is also preparing for a shift towards smart electric mobility and focussing on local manufacturing. Such events will help Indian ecosystem players to remain updated on the latest in the field around the world and prepare themselves for the coming transformation.

5G Automotive Association, Tata Elxsi, Dell and what3words participated in this session and discussed the need for C-V2X technology for better communication, opportunities for ecosystem players from connected mobility, a paradigm shift from hardware to software-centric approach and a unique mapping solution that uses three keywords.

Source: Counterpoint Research Smart Automotive Services, 2022

Shifting Future of Automotive Industry to Top Gear with Connected Mobility

The rising demand for safety and comfort features is helping to increase connected car penetration. We expect more than 70% of cars will be connected by 2025 in the global market and one in four cars will have 5G connectivity. However, connectivity penetration will be lower than 40% in India by 2025.

This session mainly focussed on safety during driving, challenges in handling data generated from vehicles, creating actionable insights from telemetry data, and collaborative effort among OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers to make this transition smooth. Intel, Zeliot, VE Commercial Vehicles and Danlaw shared their understanding of this transition.

Driving Towards Connected, Secure, Autonomous & Electric Mobility

In the future, cars will be driven by software. We have already witnessed smartphone players such as Foxconn and Xiaomi entering this market. Data will be the new fuel and nearly 30% of the automotive market value will come from software and services. Moreover, electronic content in a car will rise with increasing smart electric mobility penetration.

According to Counterpoint’s latest research, India’s automotive electronics market will triple by 2027, driven by rising income levels and increasing customer preference for in-vehicle digital experience.

Collaborative efforts of all ecosystem players, whether OEMs, Tier-1 suppliers, regulatory bodies, system integrators or service providers, are important for a successful transition. The Indian government is also working to come up with AIS189 and AIS190 standards for connected vehicle security. Continental and Bosch share the same view on this topic and think a collaborative effort will be the key to connected mobility success in India. Secure Things highlighted how our vehicles are becoming more prone to safety issues and hacking. Both hardware and software level security will be required as preventive measures.

Emerging Technologies – Riding the Next Wave of Connected & Autonomous Mobility

Connected mobility is undergoing dramatic changes. Earlier, we used to connect smartphones to a car via Bluetooth or cable. Today, most cars come with embedded connectivity. In the future, cars will be able to communicate with other vehicles, pedestrians, networks, infrastructure, grid and home.

The upcoming connected and autonomous era will induce a huge influx of data for which substantial storage will be required. We expect Level 4 cars will require more than 1TB of data storage by 2025. Moreover, 30% of cars sold globally will support Level 2 or above. Western Digital is working on automotive storage products. It believes that one day storage will be a key feature at the time of selecting a vehicle. During this session, Bosch introduced Mobility Cloud Platform and Mobility Marketplace. This platform can support other IoT applications such as industrial and enterprise.

Download the full analysis from event sessions below:

ADAS – A Game Changer for Safe and Autonomous Driving

MG Motors introduced ADAS in India for the first time back in 2019 through its L1 SUV Hector. Even as ADAS technology is rapidly gaining acceptance in the global market, India is not that far behind. Currently, L2+ autonomy is being offered in most premium vehicles. With the changing landscape of vehicle architecture, the incorporation of ADAS will be easier and more cost-effective.

Windriver and Hexagon showed how the changing vehicle architecture will benefit system integration and deployment of autonomy. While Windriver has expertise in test and analysis of vehicle architecture and software and ADAS system, Hexagon helps deploy autonomy across sectors and platforms by blending the digital and physical worlds. Hexagon uses ML algorithms to create a simulation through well-captured surround photos. The simulation helps understand how a situation will look with automation, and also increases the accuracy of the automated process.

Shaping the Future of Mobility with IoT, Connectivity & Sustainability

The mobility roadmap is hugely dependent on connectivity. OEMs are constantly innovating to make the journey more pleasurable with better IVI system, better navigation, CV2X and ultimately autonomy, which will not be possible if a proper vehicular connection is not established. According to our research, global cellular IoT module shipments are expected to cross 1.2 billion units by 2030 with a CAGR of 12%. 5G will be the fastest-growing (60%) technology, followed by 4G Cat 1 bis, during 2022-2030. Among cellular IoT modules, global NAD module shipments are expected to reach 80 million by 2025, growing at 14% CAGR from 2021, with one out of every five connected cars projected to have embedded 5G connectivity by then.

Leading frontline companies like Cavli Wireless and MediaTek have shared some details about how they plan to increase connectivity across the automotive industry. As the future bets on autonomy, connectivity benefits are not just limited to in-vehicle internet browsing and autonomy but also extend to vehicle accident prevention, better navigation, precise tracking and more. In short, increased connectivity will enable a sustainable digital ecosystem that, if used properly, holds immense development potential.

Intelligent Transportation System to Promote Safety & Improve Mobility

Increased vehicle connectivity has made transportation safer, more reliable and timelier. Along with changing architecture and increased integration of improved software, the addition of newer technologies is becoming easier.

Intellicar, Skoda, and IBM took the stage to showcase how intelligent transport solutions could tackle some of the general and critical issues of the industry. Intellicar has a solution line from hardware and firmware customization to a low-latency data directory. Skoda showed how intelligent systems can reduce road accidents. IBM provided a global overview and discussed its strength as a software developer and system integrator.

Protecting Software-defined Vehicles with Cybersecurity Solutions

With the increased use of software and internet, present-day cars are no less than a computer and like every other computer, cars are also exposed to cyber threats like malware. If the system used in vehicles is not properly protected, a lot of damage can happen, including loss of life. Therefore, strong and effective anti-virus protection with an improved firewall is much required.

Escrypt, a cyber threat protection company, was of the view that vehicle data safety could be ensured through blockchain-based communication systems, smart gateways, cyber digital twin, AI-based detectors and other encryption systems.

Charting the Future of Connected Mobility with Automotive Telematics

The growing automotive sector holds a lot of potential for the development of new and smart technologies. The transition from conventional vehicles to EVs is also paving the road toward a sustainable connected future. Technologies that were limited to certain fields earlier are finding their way into the expanding automotive space. The use of security systems, blockchain, data tokenization and other platform-based and protocol-based technologies and services is penetrating the automotive space, making the sector more flexible, versatile and user-friendly.

Source: Counterpoint Research Smart Automotive Services, 2022

Market Outlook

Emerging technologies such as ADAS/AD, in-vehicle connectivity, upgraded cybersecurity for the software-defined vehicles, electric vehicles and connected vehicles are taking centre stage as the automotive industry undergoes a paradigm shift. The automotive supply chain is dynamically changing as well, with OEMs making huge investments and starting to adopt digital services to remain future-proof and not cede revenue monetizing opportunities to technology companies. Apart from traditional auto OEMs, the involvement of non-automotive tech companies has been increasing in this space. The future of the automotive sector will be heavily dependent on digital technology. Due to traditional auto OEMs’ lack of expertise in digitalization, non-automotive companies are partnering with them to secure a market share in this growing space.

Related Reports:

Podcast: Future of Mobility After COVID-19

The world around us has changed since the COVID-19 outbreak that started in early 2020. Lockdowns have been imposed in several countries, social distancing is being followed in public places and many other changes that we can notice. COVID-19 has also changed the way we commute and travel, with public transport and shared mobility taking a big hit. As a result, mobility looks challenging in the short term. But how does the future of mobility look after COVID-19?

Besides the pandemic, we also have the world economic crisis that has impacted businesses and consumers across the globe. Considering some people will avoid public transport for a while, there is an increasing need for a personal vehicle. But has that improved the car sales? The pandemic has also forced businesses to go digital, so what are dealers and automakers doing to push sales? We answer these questions and more in our new podcast.

In the latest episode of ‘The Counterpoint Podcast’, host Peter Richardson and senior research analyst Aman Madhok discuss the future of mobility after the COVID-19 pandemic. The discussion covers topics including emerging mobility options such as e-bikes, e-scooters and electric vehicles. We have also touched upon the types of investments and partnerships that are happening in the industry, and how they will benefit the future of world mobility.

You can also follow our detailed, weekly update on coronavirus’ impact on the global automotive industry here.

Hit the play button to listen to the podcast

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India Automotive Industry: Struggling in 2020?

Demand for new cars declined sharply in 2019, forcing automakers to cut production across the year. Sales were expected to revive during the annual festive season from October 2019 but failed to do so. In fact, there was an encouraging spike in sales in Q3 – stimulated by promotional offers, aggressive discounts, new model launches, and the increasing availability of models offering Bharat Stage-VI (BS-VI) emission standard. However, volumes dipped soon after the season was over. Counterpoint Research expects the negative month-on-month sales trend will continue in Q1 2020. Despite continued difficulties, we expect the overall YoY decline to moderate over the rest of the year, with anticipation of economic interventions and industry stability.

Exhibit 1: Vehicle Sales in India (‘000 Units), H2 2018 vs H2 2019

Political, economic and consumer-led factors will carryover from 2019 to impact sales in 2020. These include stringent environmental and safety regulations, a moderating economy, the increasing popularity of shared mobility, political uncertainty, increasing insurance norms and cautious lending.

Elaborating on these factors:

Stringent Environmental and Safety Regulations:

Over 2019, automotive OEMs scrambled to comply with additional mandated safety equipment requirements including anti-lock/combined braking systems, driver side airbag, speed warning alarm, rear parking sensors, front seatbelt reminders, and crash test standards. All adding to investment costs and increased pricing to customers across all models.
The impact of mandates introduced in 2018, e.g. five-year third-party insurance premium for two-wheelers to be collected in advance, had its full-year effect in 2019 on overall vehicle sales, and on two-wheeler sales in particular. These continue to bite.
By April 2020, all vehicle types, two- and three-wheelers, cars and commercial vehicles – are mandated to conform to BS-VI emission standards, with cost increases estimated to be between 5-10%. Having increased prices already at the beginning of January 2020 by 2-3% to offset economic cost increases, OEMs are faced with the dilemma of potentially absorbing some of the extra costs or lost volumes.

Moderating Economic Growth:

The global economic slowdown has impacted the Indian automotive sector (and Europe and China). India’s GDP growth in Q3 2019 fell to 4.5% from 5% in Q2, and from 7.1% a year ago, resulting from lowered consumer spending and reduced private investment. A depressed rural economy with the lower annual rainfall continues to have a significant impact on two-wheeler demand.
Growing unemployment and a moderating economy led people to postpone vehicle buying decisions. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate was at 8.5% in October 2019, the highest since August 2016. Inflation rose to 3.99% in September 2019 from 3.18% in June.
The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the Indian economy from 7% to 6.1% in 2020.

Growing Popularity of Shared Mobility:

Shared mobility providers continue to dent the demand for passenger vehicles in urban areas, with people increasingly preferring shared-mobility services for their commute. Based on primary research conducted in the country in 2019, Counterpoint Research estimates two out of three frequent users of shared mobility services consider ride-hailing more economical than owning a car. Leading players Ola and Uber have plans to expand services further into tier-2 and tier-3 cities in the next few years.

Cautious Lending by NBFCs:

Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) finance most vehicle purchases, particularly in rural India. Dealers depend on NBFCs to fund their wholesale purchasing of vehicles from OEMs. The recent solvency issues surrounding India’s NBFCs led to cautious lending that has adversely affected automotive sales in 2019 and shows no signs of abating. OEMs and dealers have approached India’s Finance Industry Development Council, seeking government intervention to improve the financial health of leading NBFCs.

Exhibit 2: Indian Automotive Industry – Impact of Key Factors

Growing Competition:

In spite of the apparent slowdown, MG Motors (part of SAIC Group), BYD and other leading Chinese OEMs including Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motors have serious investment plans for India and are showcasing their proposed models at this year’s Delhi Auto show. Bucking the trend MG Motors and Korean automaker Kia Motors have had strong launches of their recent SUV models, receiving significant orders months in advance. With the increased competition in passenger cars in 2020, Counterpoint estimates these new automakers will nibble away at Maruti Suzuki’s and Tata Motors’ market shares.

Exhibit 3 – Two-Wheelers and Passenger Vehicles Sales, India, 2018-2021

Conclusion:

Overall for 2020, Counterpoint Research’s automotive sales forecast for India remains cautious, with several factors – particularly tight credit conditions, the moderating economy and the transition to BS-VI emissions standards – creating uncertainty, obstacles and delays.

BMW Posts Strong Growth in Q3 2019; Big Plans for EV, AV and Shared Mobility

BMW recorded its highest ever sales for a third-quarter due to rising demand for SUVs among younger generations, a balanced delivery distribution of vehicles across the world, and good performance of newer models. It delivered 657,105 vehicles, registering a 4% YoY volume growth, but a 6% QoQ decline. This against a background of shaky consumer demand in China and the US. BMW is slowly transitioning towards new technologies with progress in both shared mobility, electric and autonomous vehicles (AV).

Regionally, BMW remained strong in the EU and the US, and moderate growth in China amid weak market demand. Its performance is driven by the higher demand for premium segment vehicles and improving availability for EV charging stations. Strong partnerships among OEMs, charging infrastructure firms, and shared mobility players helped BMW to grow customer engagement in mobility services by 10.6% QoQ.

BMW propelling toward electric, shared and autonomous mobility

The automotive industry is becoming more complex day by day, so BMW is trying to take a slow and steady approach towards transitioning into electric and autonomous mobility.

In the electric vehicles (EV) space which includes battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), BMW is maintaining a balanced production of EV and non-EVs. According to Counterpoint Research’s analysis, BMW held an 8% market share in global electric vehicle sales in Q3 2019. In the third quarter, the penetration of EVs in BMW’s deliveries was 6%. This is expected to reach 10% by Q3 2020. BMW has already announced that 25 EVs (including 13 BEVs) are to be launched by 2023. We expect at least three EV model will come in the next year. And two of these will be available in China; the single largest EV market and a driving force behind electric vehicle adoption.

In the AV space, BMW is concentrating on testing, programming and simulation of vehicles. BMW has already collected 2000 Petabytes of data up to September 2019 for developing better simulation systems. BMW’s new simulation centre is expected to be ready by 2020, giving an impetus to its self-driving capabilities. This will enable the launch of the iNEXT line of vehicles with Level 3 and Level 4 automation by 2021 and 2024, respectively. We at Counterpoint Research believe that the penetration of AVs with Level 1 and Level 2 to reach 72% by Q3 2020 from 64% in Q3 2019.

Highlights of Q3 2019:

Although BMW set a new record for the highest third quarterly delivery, the total car delivery reached 613,361 units in Q3 2019 decreasing by 5% from Q2 2019.
Motorcycle deliveries were down by 20% QoQ to reach 43,744 units.
Q3 2019 revenue was €26.7 billion increasing 7.9% QoQ.
The total customer engagement which refers to the number of interactions on shared mobility, parking and charging infrastructure platform reached 83 million at the end of Q3 2019 from 75 million in Q2 2019.
Electric vehicle sales increased by 14% QoQ to reach 36,977 in Q3 2019

Global Electric Vehicle Car Sales to Reach 2 Million Units in 2019

Electric vehicle car sales demonstrating growth in most regions of the world.

Over 10 million electric vehicles expected to be sold annually by 2025.

March 23, 2019

With electric vehicles cars (EVs) evolving to more advanced, reliable and affordable options in the automotive market, global sales are expected to grow to around 2 million units in 2019, up from 1.2 million units in 2017, the latest research from Counterpoint’s Smart Mobility Services shows. Further, with the adoption of EVs on a path of sustained growth in most regions of the world, we believe, over 10 million EVs will be sold annually by 2025.

Commenting on the findings, Vinay Piparsania, Consulting Director at Counterpoint Research said, “The past year has seen numerous announcements from almost all major automotive OEMs sharing their ambitious global EV product plans. These announcements have been further amplified at the 2019 Geneva International Motor Show. Should these plans be realized, it will mean an introduction of around 400 electrified models and an estimated cumulative global sales of more than 38 million EVs during the 2018-2025 period. We expect that by 2030, the share of EVs in various global markets will range from 10% to 50% of new vehicle car sales. The actual share of EV sales will, however, depend on levels of congestion, mandated emission regulations, consumer incentives/subsidies and other such external factors.”

At this year’s Geneva International Motor Show, leading automakers Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, unveiled several pure EVs. Interestingly, there were also several electric hypercars and supercars, including those from Volvo’s performance sub-brand Polestar, Mahindra & Mahindra’s subsidiary Automobili Pininfarina, and Czech-brand Rimac.

Our research shows that while EV sales are increasing across the world, China remains the largest market accounting for more than half of the global volume, with more than 600,000 EVs sold in 2017, more than three times the volumes of the United States which were at 198,000 in 2017.

Exhibit1: Global Electric Vehicle Sales (‘000 Units)

The findings are part of Counterpoint’s recently published report entitled, “The Automotive Transformation is Speeding Up”. In the report, Counterpoint Research explores how technological disruptions and evolving consumer requirements are reshaping the automotive landscape.

Vinay added, “The global automotive industry stands on the cusp of unprecedented change. Unstoppable megatrends that reflect a confluence of factors – economic, demographic and technological – are set to reshape the industry over the next decade. New markets will rise, and new technologies will emerge to meet the challenges ahead, driven by new imperatives – such as tighter regulatory standards due to climate change concerns and new personal connectivity innovations – as well as the familiar ones that have driven the steady growth of car markets and the automotive industry over the past century.”

We believe that key trends that will reshape the global automotive industry include:

Shared mobility – With Auto OEMs awakening to the reality and urgency of having to reimagine themselves as ‘mobility service’ providers, to protect their revenues and diversify their business models.
Connected cars – With innovations in connected car technologies projected to dramatically improve the quality, speed of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and other vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications.
Autonomous Vehicles – With rapid advancements in technology and artificial intelligence aiming to ultimately replace human drivers, fully autonomous vehicles are expected, in some forms, sooner than many think.
Electrification – With EVs gaining momentum and expected to eventually cost the same as conventional fuel powered equivalents, the reality of their opportunity for car manufacturers and battery suppliers is dawning.
Global Automotive Consolidations and Alliances – With the critical need to stay competitive and relevant, a race for partnerships and alliances among automakers and technology enterprises, unimaginable before, is on.

The comprehensive and in-depth report “The Automotive Transformation is Speeding Up” is available for subscribing clients. Please feel free to contact us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our in-depth latest research, insights or press enquiries.

Analyst Contacts:

Vinay Piparsania

+91 9971005882

vinay@counterpointresearch.com

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Insights Tag: shared mobility