Indonesia Archives - Counterpoint

TECNO, Infinix, Apple Fastest-growing Smartphone Brands in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia’s smartphone shipment volumes declined 2% YoY but increased 3% QoQ in Q3 2023, signaling a recovery in the region’s smartphone demand.
The fastest-growing brands were TECNO (148%), Infinix (42%) and Apple (19%). All three Transsion brands collectively grew by 62% YoY in Q3 2023.
Samsung led the market with a 21% share, followed by Xiaomi (17%) and OPPO (15%).
Indonesia and Thailand saw flattish growth while other SEA countries like the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam declined YoY.
5G smartphones captured 36% of overall shipments in the region.

Jakarta, Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – November 9, 2023

Southeast Asia’s smartphone shipments declined 2% YoY but increased 3% QoQ in Q3 2023, signaling a recovery in the region’s smartphone demand, according to Counterpoint Research’s Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker. Stronger macroeconomic indicators, aggressive new OEM launches and aggressive promotions by OEMs and other platforms were the main growth contributors. Also, an uptick was seen in the replacement cycles of consumers opting for low-to-mid-tier smartphones. TECNO, Infinix and Apple emerged as the fastest-growing brands during the quarter.

Most key SEA countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam showed a double-digit decline in Q2 2023, but they improved in Q3 2023, hinting a relief for OEMs ahead of an important festive quarter. However, on an annual level, we foresee a YoY decline of about 8% for the region in 2023.

SEA remains an important market for the tech ecosystem due to its underpenetration in many areas, like online banking, e-wallet usage, online shopping and overall internet usage.

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Tracker, September 2023

Key country insights

Indonesia and Thailand saw flattish growth in smartphone shipments while other key SEA countries like the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam declined YoY.
In Thailand, the new government launched several initiatives, such as delaying debt payments, lowering energy prices and offering cash handouts, to ease the citizen’s cost of living. This brought immediate effect on commodities. Besides, in September, the government announced visa-free entry for tourists from China and Kazakhstan, bringing much relief to the country’s COVID-hit tourism industry.
In Indonesia, OEMs launched several new models in the middle and end of September. The new launches made up a big share of the overall shipments. During the quarter, Indonesians preferred to wait and watch when it came to spending money. The country is gearing up for its legislative and presidential election in February 2024. We expect Q4 2023 to see more smartphone sales due to aggressive offers.
Vietnam’s economy has picked up with its exports coming back on track. GDP grew 5.33% in Q3 2023, beating expectations. Foreign investment is expected to rise with Vietnam entering strategic partnerships during the prime minister’s visit to the US in September.
In the Philippines, the economy is showing signs of recovery. Consumer confidence has improved. Unemployment is a concern and essentials are still expensive for low-income families. Due to easing inflation, the coming months might see increased household spending. Overall, the household expenditure levels might take some time to recuperate, which might affect smartphone purchases.
In Malaysia, industrial manufacturing is still slowing down due to weaker demand for electrical and electronic products. Weaker exports have added to the decline in GDP as well. Malaysia’s 5G connectivity and penetration are improving now but the overall industry is being affected by China’s economic headwinds.

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Tracker, September 2023

Key OEM insights

Beating the trend, Apple’s shipments increased by 19% YoY during the quarter. Apple is still seeing a strong demand for the iPhone 13 and 14 series, adding to the demand for the newly launched 15 series.
Samsung led the market with a 21% share. Its A05 series has entered the market, adding to a strong overall A-series presence. Premium models like the Z Flip 5 and Z Fold 5 along with the S series are contributing as well. Promotions for the brand are centered around these premium models not only in countries like Thailand and Vietnam but also increasingly in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines. This is due to premium smartphone purchases by well-to-do consumers who are least affected by current headwinds. Samsung was the top brand in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam in Q3 2023.
Xiaomi’s shipments grew 7%. Its Redmi 12 series has been doing quite well across all key SEA countries. Its promotions and new model launches were also better than most other brands during Q3 2023, which helped the brand increase shipments. Xiaomi was the top brand in Malaysia in Q3.
Transsion witnessed the highest growth during the quarter. Infinix grew 42% YoY, TECNO 148% and itel witnessed a 17% growth. Infinix and TECNO are offering strong base specifications along with a varied model portfolio.
realme saw flat growth during Q3 2023. It was the top brand in the Philippines.

Commenting on brand dynamics in Q3 2023, Senior Analyst Glen Cardoza said, “Samsung and Xiaomi have been able to market their models in a much better manner across all key SEA countries, while sustaining new launches across price ranges, compared to the limited options from brands like OPPO and vivo. Upcoming brands are making a mark as well. Among them, the Transsion brands lead. TECNO and Infinix have either sustained or increased their new model launches, all in the entry to mid-tier segments. The three Transsion brands collectively grew 62% YoY in Q3 2023.”

While 5G penetration still has some way to go in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia, 5G is increasingly becoming a key consideration for consumers. Many consumers want their phones to be 5G ready. During Q3 2023, 5G smartphones captured 36% of overall shipments in the region.

The region’s key macroeconomic parameters like China-ASEAN trade, startup funding and foreign direct investment continue to see YoY declines. Add to this a recovering tourism industry. This has led to low GDP levels across most SEA countries. Price-conscious consumers have waited all year for the situation to get better, spending the least on discretionary items. On the positive side, digital transformation continues even as the industry recuperates slowly. This means that we can expect a better Q4 of 2023.

* Key Southeast Asia countries/markets include Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Follow Counterpoint Research

press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Indonesia’s Q2 2023 Smartphone Shipments Drop 10%; OPPO Recaptures Top Spot

Indonesia’s smartphone shipments declined in Q2 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds.
OPPO overtook Samsung to recapture the top spot with a 21% share.
Top OEMs except Infinix recorded declines. Infinix’s shipments grew 17% YoY.
Xiaomi’s shipment decline softened to 12% YoY in Q2 2023.
5G smartphone shipments in the <$400 price band increased 11% YoY.

Jakarta, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – August 14, 2023

With macroeconomic headwinds continuing to impact demand, Indonesia’s smartphone shipments declined 10% YoY in Q2 2023, according to Counterpoint’s Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Tracker. The increase in shopping activity during the Eid al-Fitr festivities in April was also lower than last year. Promotions such as price discounts, bundled offers and installment and trade-in schemes failed to have the desired impact on sales. Consumers’ buying interest shifted to accommodating the increased price of commodities like fuel, and household and personal products, along with services availed during the festival season, such as travel.

Indonesia Smartphone Shipments Market Share by OEM, Q2 2022 vs Q2 2023

Source: Counterpoint Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Tracker, 2023

OPPO recaptured the top spot in the market in Q2 2023 with a 21% share, largely supported by its low-end models in the A17 series. The brand continued its aggressive marketing campaign and the models released in the previous quarter, such as the Reno8 T series and Find N2 Flip, had a spillover effect on its visibility in the market. The Galaxy A04 series made a significant contribution to Samsung’s volumes, restricting the brand’s shipment share decline to just 1% point.

Among top OEMs, only Infinix saw an increase in its shipments, at 17% YoY. The brand focused on the <$200 price band, offering better specifications in its models. Besides, Infinix was aggressive with its marketing activities to increase awareness and visibility for the brand. Its newly launched products, such as the Note 30 series, Hot 30 series and the Smart 7 series, contributed significant volumes to the brand’s overall shipments.

Xiaomi’s shipment decline significantly softened to 12% YoY in Q2 2023 from 47% YoY in Q2 2022. Recent initiatives indicated that Xiaomi had worked on strengthening its supply and distribution. The OEM made strong marketing moves during the quarter, such as new product launches and rejigging of discount schemes. Xiaomi sub-brand Redmi’s performance was driven by its newly launched models, especially the Redmi A2 series and Redmi Note 12 series.

5G smartphone shipments in the <$400 price band increased 11% YoY in Q2. Key OEMs in this segment included Samsung with its Galaxy A14 5G, A23 5G and A34 5G series and Xiaomi with its Redmi Note 12 series. Newcomer iQOO Z7 5G series also joined this segment.

Outlook

Looking ahead, we expect a continued macroeconomic recovery in H2 2023 to lift the smartphone market. Senior Analyst Febriman Abdillah said, “Price becomes more crucial considering the current macroeconomic climate, which has increased commodity prices. Giving incentives to consumers, like discounts, bundled offers, bonuses and trade-in schemes, can be one option to keep the market attractive. The incentives may even be relevant for the mid-range and premium segments.”

At the brand level, Xiaomi’s new initiatives to bring prices down may attract consumers and help the brand grow this year. Infinix may grow further as it becomes more popular in the market.

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Febriman Abdillah

Follow Counterpoint Research

press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Apple Shines in a Declining Southeast Asia Smartphone Market

Smartphone shipments in Southeast Asia’s five key markets* declined 13% YoY in Q1 2023.
Apple’s shipments increased by 18% YoY during the same period.
Infinix witnessed a 41% increase as the brand grew across SEA markets.
While mid-to-high-end ($201-$600) ranges suffered the most, the >$600 range shipments increased by 4%.

Jakarta, Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – May 15, 2023

Smartphone shipments in Southeast Asia’s five key countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia) fell 13% YoY due to low demand and a seasonal drop, according to Counterpoint Research’s Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker.

All key SEA countries saw a decline in Q1 2023 but some more than others. Countries like Vietnam received relatively more shipments in Q4 2022 and so OEMs felt the need to reduce volumes in Q1 2023. Consumer sentiment has not completely revived in Vietnam. Factors like a 10% fall in Samsung’s production, seasonally low smartphone demand after Q4 2022, and reduced revenues for OEMs and operators were also among the driving factors. Indonesia and Thailand did comparatively well than the other countries as demand started improving in March 2023.

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Tracker

All key SEA countries are coming out of the geopolitical effects from last year while still reeling under some inflation effects. For instance, the Philippines suffered high inflation at the start of this year. However, operators continue to remain aggressive on 5G development and partnerships with tech companies. The industry has resumed its earlier levels of advancement as foreign investments are again entering big economies like Indonesia and Malaysia. There are collaborations happening on the financial services front as well. For example, OPPO in Indonesia is partnering with banks to provide banking services while AIS, the leading operator in Thailand, has partnered with Bangkok Bank to provide financial services on digital platforms. Consumers are not exactly feeling the improvements on the ground though. Most smartphone purchases are being delayed.

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Tracker

Vietnam is a growing Apple iPhone market. The demand for the iPhone 13 and 14 series was good in Q1 2023. Indonesia has seen growth in iPhone shipments as well. Overall, iPhone shipments grew 18% YoY in Q1 2023.

Infinix is the official smartphone partner for Mobile Legends professional league in the Philippines. Infinix has improved on promoting itself as a gaming brand in the region. Overall, though Infinix’s volumes are not on a par with the top brands, it continues to grow in the region. The brand grew 41% in Q1 2023.

While certain brands have been in focus at the start of this year, the price range share favored two consumer groups in Q1 2023. <$200 smartphones witnessed a 4% YoY growth despite an overall decline in volumes. Since entry-level phone shipments had been consistently low, pent-up demand motivated higher shipments in Q1 2023. However, not all countries saw a spike in low-end smartphone demand. OEMs in Vietnam were still looking to push these volumes. The Philippines’ low-income families are reeling under high tax and inflationary issues, restricting low-end smartphone purchases. Premium-end (>$600) smartphone shipments continued to rise and saw 4% YoY growth. Mid-to-high-end ($201-$600) smartphone shipments suffered the most across the region.

Commenting on the SEA economies in 2023, Senior Analyst Glen Cardoza said, “Southeast Asia is at a stage where different consumer types are behaving in a different manner. Low-end smartphone buyers are recovering but they are not just there yet. Mid-to-high-end smartphone buyers are holding on to their wallets and extending the ownership of their phones, while high-to-premium smartphone buyers are unaffected by the economics of the situation. These consumers are going out and choosing to buy the S series, foldables and iPhones. While 5G is becoming a norm, operators are coming out with creative packages and providing options for all types of smartphones. The coming months are likely to see a bit more improvement in consumer sentiment while governments make sure that their countries remain largely unaffected by global macro issues.”

The Vietnamese government is looking to commercialize 5G in the country this year. This will facilitate a new level of manufacturing and consumer usage if done earlier than later. While the Malaysian government and industry work on 5G commercialization and the terms for it, consumers are already equipped with 5G smartphones.

With an increase in tourism in SEA countries earlier in the year, there is a chance that tourism business and revenue will increase this year. Countries like Thailand are also concentrating on eco-tourism initiatives that focus on sustainability, all through smartphones. All these developments are likely to spell normalcy for the public, leading to a likely improvement in consumer sentiment in the coming quarters.

* Key Southeast Asia countries/markets include Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research

Electric Vehicles Gain Ground in Southeast Asia; Thailand Dominates Volumes

Thailand led the region’s passenger EV sales in 2022 with a 58% share.
Nearly two in three EVs sold in 2022 were BEVs.
Wuling’s newest model Air EV was the region’s bestseller.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – March 31, 2023

Passenger electric vehicle (EV*) sales** in Southeast Asia (SEA^#) accounted for just under 2% of the region’s total passenger vehicle sales in 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Thailand was the most advanced, accounting for 58% of the region’s EV sales, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam. Thailand’s government has been pushing EV sales through demand-side incentives and corporate income tax incentives for EV manufacturers.

Wuling’s Air EV was the best-selling model across the region in 2022, being one of the most affordable EV options. In terms of automotive groups, Vingroup led the SEA EV sales, closely followed by Wuling (part of SAIC-GM-Wuling group) and Volvo (Geely Holdings subsidiary). Battery EVs (BEVs) represented 64.6% of the total EV sales while plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) constituted the rest.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhilash Gupta said, “Passenger EV demand is increasing gradually across the SEA region but sales are tiny compared to global EV sales, constituting just 0.5% of the global total for 2022. However, as geopolitical tensions are rising between China and the West, SEA is becoming an attractive option for Chinese auto manufacturers looking to expand abroad. Therefore, we can expect to see more production plants in SEA in the longer term, which will help boost EV sales. Thailand has the largest auto manufacturing sector in SEA. It is aiming to leverage its manufacturing expertise to attract automakers to produce and sell EVs there. Indonesia and Vietnam have the advantage of mineral resources, which gives them an edge over others in the region. The SEA countries have set lofty EV targets and have introduced many incentives to promote EV adoption among consumers and to attract EV manufacturers to set up bases.”

Source: Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q4 2022

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “Although EVs are currently a niche market in SEA, we do expect their sales to double in 2023. However, it will be difficult for the SEA countries to achieve their EV targets and increase the share of renewables in the electricity grid at the same time.

SEA countries have the opportunity to display their manufacturing capabilities and grow, given the interest of many international auto manufacturers to invest in the region. Those that enter the market early will have an edge, allowing them to secure a substantial share of the market. The SEA region could adopt the approaches taken by China and Europe, which provide incentives based on CO₂ emission levels. Doing so would encourage both consumers and manufacturers to shift towards more environment-friendly vehicles.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e., deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

^#SEA includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q4 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Abhilash Gupta

Soumen Mandal

Brady Wang

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Posts

Thailand Leads Southeast Asia EV Market With 60% Share

Southeast Asia’s electric vehicle sales grew 35% YoY in Q3 2022.
The top five brands accounted for almost 67% of the region’s passenger EV sales.
The sales are expected to cross 3.5 million units by 2030 at a CAGR of 124%.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – December 21, 2022

Passenger electric vehicle (EV*) sales** in Southeast Asia (SEA)^# grew 35% YoY in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Thailand registered the highest EV sales volume in the region, capturing almost 60% share, followed by Indonesia and Singapore. Battery EVs (BEVs) constituted 61% of the sales and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) the rest. The top five brands accounted for almost 67% of the EV sales in SEA. Wuling emerged as the best-selling EV brand followed by Volvo and BMW.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhilash Gupta said, “Although the passenger EV sales in SEA are small compared to other regions, the demand is gradually increasing. Currently, EV sales are just a tad over 2% of total passenger vehicle sales in the region. Many OEMs are setting up or are planning to set up manufacturing plants across the region due to favorable policies, subsidies and incentives by major SEA countries like Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia.”

Market summary

Thailand’s EV market has grown tremendously this year, making it SEA’s undisputed EV leader. The country grabbed almost 60% of EV sales in SEA in Q3 2022. It aims to achieve 100% domestic sales from BEVs by 2035. Subsidies, excise duty waivers and import tax reductions have put Thailand on the right path in its EV journey.

Indonesia took 25% share in the SEA passenger EV market sales for Q3 2022. Also, during Q3, the country registered its highest EV sales volume till now. The Wuling Air EV model launched during this quarter became an instant hit here and was the best-selling EV model. Recently, many companies have announced plans for setting up EV battery production units in Indonesia, which is in line with the country’s target to build 140 GWh of battery capacity by 2030. Indonesia is a major player in vehicle production in SEA.

Singapore, another growing EV market, captured almost 12% share of the SEA EV sales. It has a target to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030 and has introduced various incentives, policies and schemes to increase EV adoption. Alongside, it is also trying to develop a well-connected network of 60,000 charging points by the end of this decade.

Malaysia only had a 3% share in the SEA EV market in Q3 2022. Nonetheless, the Malaysian government is supporting the adoption of EVs and has exempted EVs from road, import, excise and sales taxes. Further push to develop charging infrastructure will boost EV sales.

Vietnam announced zero registration fee for EVs in March 2022. Vinfast, the major EV brand, recently discontinued its ICE models to focus on EVs. The future looks promising for the EV market to flourish in Vietnam.

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The SEA region’s automotive sector is mainly occupied by Japanese OEMs. However, with the shift in focus to EVs, they are facing stiff competition from the Chinese, South Korean and few local players. Affordability remains a major bottleneck for the region’s EV growth. But the scenario is changing with the availability of some cheaper EV options by Wuling, BYD, GWM and SAIC. Unlike developed EV markets such as the US and Europe, low-priced EV options are gaining popularity in emerging markets like Thailand and Indonesia. According to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast, the SEA EV market is expected to grow at a fast pace and by the end of this decade EV sales are expected to cross the 3.5-million mark at a CAGR of 124%.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

^#SEA here includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q3 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Abhilash Gupta

Soumen Mandal

Brady Wang

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Posts:

Indonesia’s Q3 2022 Smartphone Shipments Down 21% YoY on Macro Concerns; Good Q4 Seen

The <$250 price band took the hardest hit.
OPPO led the market followed closely by Samsung and vivo.
The $500-$699 price band grew 134%.
Online channel shipments increased 8% YoY in Q3 2022.
5G smartphone shipments increased 42% YoY.

Jakarta, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – November 14, 2022

With macroeconomic conditions showing no signs of improvement, Indonesia’s smartphone shipments declined 21% YoY in Q3 2022, according to Counterpoint’s Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker. High smartphone demand in Q3 2021 after the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in higher shipments which made this quarter look even worse.

OPPO managed to regain the top spot in Q3 2022 driven by its A16 model family, A57 series and Reno series. Aggressive marketing and models spread across price bands also contributed to the good show.

Major OEMs cut their shipments as inventory piled up. In the $150-$249 band, Samsung’s dominance weakened, thereby placing vivo and OPPO as the main OEMs with a combined share of 51%. The <$150 price band was led by OPPO and vivo with a 34% share. Infinix has increased its presence in this segment by introducing the Hot 12 series.

Source: Counterpoint Monthly Indonesia Channel Share Tracker, Q3 2022

Smartphones priced ≥$500 are unlikely to be affected by macroeconomic headwinds due to the consumer group’s capacity for discretionary expenditure. Therefore, OEMs have increased the options for this price band. OPPO with its Reno series once held the crown in the $500-$699 segment. In Q3 2022, Samsung and OPPO led the segment with a share of 63%.

Commenting on the price range dynamics, Senior Analyst Febriman Abdillah said, “The $500-$699 price segment can be an attractive market given its high growth in economically turbulent times. In Indonesia, OEMs are offering specifications like 8-12GB RAM, 256 ROM, 4000-6000mAh battery capacity and 5G capability. These in-demand specs can help in better targeting of consumers.” The OPPO Reno 8’s Portrait Expert mode claims enhancements in photography technology. realme’s GT Neo series has come up with a “speed” differentiator that improves smartphone gaming. Samsung’s Galaxy A73 5G was one of the top mid-range phones.

Smartphone online channels grew 8% YoY in Q3 2022 to reach 22% of overall shipments. Product availability is one of the key drivers that motivate consumers to visit online platforms. Aside from price promotions, cashbacks, free shipping and bonus points from e-finance providers, the opportunity to get the latest products through pre-order schemes is another attraction of the online channel. Among e-commerce players, Shopee maintained its top spot followed by Akulaku, Lazada, Tokopedia and Blibli.

In addition to marketplaces, OEMs have improved their own online channels, such as Xiaomi, OPPO, realme and Samsung’s online stores. Virtual shopping stores like Samsung Experience Store could be a leap in the application of technology in connecting products with consumers. Here, 5G-ready phones can provide a better virtual experience.

5G smartphone share reached 25% in Q3 2022, which is a bit slower than Indonesia’s Southeast Asian neighbors. 5G smartphone shipments grew 42% YoY. This growth mostly came from the $250-$349 price band as most smartphones in the higher price band were already 5G-ready. In the $250-$349 band, Samsung and vivo led the 5G growth with the Galaxy A33 series, M33 series and vivo Y75.

Outlook

Entering Q4 2022, we expect progress in macroeconomic recovery, which may stir the smartphone market. Abdillah said, “There is optimism for a possible increase in demand for budget and mid-range smartphones during the shopping season. We may see further enhancements in specifications here for the new models. This may trigger demand by way of smartphone upgrades, especially when there is also a possibility of pent-up demand in Q4. The challenge will be how to attract consumers effectively. Consumers will have a wide choice of smartphone brands and models and will be more conscious of what features they need.”

Although the smartphone market declined in the last two quarters, there has been significant market movement towards online platforms. The smartphone ecosystem is getting better in terms of providing the latest and relevant product technology.

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts:

Febriman Abdillah

Glen Cardoza

Indonesia’s Q2 2022 Smartphone Shipments Decline 11% YoY as Macro and Currency Issues Hobble Low-End Segments

Indonesia’s Q2 2022 smartphone shipments declined 11% YoY to fall below 9.4m units
The broad preference for budget, sub-$150 devices made Indonesia especially vulnerable to macro weakness and currency fluctuations
Of the top OEMs, only Samsung managed to grow shipments YoY
Most major Chinese brands saw double-digit declines
Online channels ticked up, highlighting its continued importance
We are ‘not bullish’ on 2H, but device upgrade cycles a bright spot with 5G devices more than 20% shipment share during Q2

Jakarta, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – August 16, 2022

Indonesia’s Q2 2022 smartphone shipments fell 11% year-on-year to 9.4m units, according to Counterpoint’s latest Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker.

The disappointing results reflected broader regional and global trends where macro headwinds and currency issues made for a tough quarter. Base effects were also in play, as severe lockdown restrictions last year boosted demand for smartphones as more people spent more time online, magnifying the impact of this year’s economic woes.

Q2 2022 Indonesia Smartphone Shipment Share by Key OEM

Source: Counterpoint Monthly Indonesia Channel Share Tracker, Q2 2022.

Demand for budget devices (<$150), which account for a big portion of the market, fell the most, with shipments falling after Ramadhan and Eid Al Fitr. The latter half of the quarter was especially bad; June was off by almost 1m units compared to last year in the budget category.

Samsung was the only gainer in terms of unit shipments, which grew by a massive 33% – though much of it was due to base effects as the vendor struggled last year from supply issues stemming from its Vietnam factory shutdown.

Nevertheless, Samsung flooded the market by launching various low-to-mid end devices like it’s A and M series, which did especially well in April, accounting for 14% of total domestic shipments during the festive month. It was enough to help the company take pole position in terms of market share for the first time in three years, but not enough to match pre-COVID levels.

Xiaomi saw the biggest slide as chipset supply issues continued to plague shipments after its record Q2 2021. The latest quarter saw shipments fall YoY by an astonishing 47%.

Q2 2021 vs. Q2 2022 Indonesia E-Commerce Rank for Smartphone Shipments

Source: Counterpoint Monthly Indonesia Channel Share Tracker, Q2 2022.

More broadly, online channels ticked up as OEMs and major e-commerce sites offered promotions to help drive sales. Almost one out of every five smartphones shipped last quarter were through online channels. “What’s interesting to see is the fast rise of domestic fintech player Akulaku, which grabbed third spot last quarter in online shipments,” notes Senior Analyst Febriman Abdillah. “One of the ways they grabbed share was by providing buyers with Akulaku instalment plans. This ‘pay later’ pricing strategy will be important in growing the mid-end of the market, especially considering the current macro climate.”

Looking forward to 2H, our expectations for Indonesia remain tempered. Although it is less vulnerable to a recession than some of its regional and global peers, currency fluctuations will likely play a strong role in driving or hampering smartphone demand and our global macro outlook implies elevated inflation risk. Reduced spending power will hit segments shopping for low-to-mid end devices the hardest – making domestic smartphone demand especially vulnerable over the second half of 2022. However, there is room for some optimism as the upcoming 3G shutdown and continued digital transformation efforts will lead consumers to upgrade their phones.

“We’re expecting to see not only 3G replacement drive the lower end of the market, but consumers upgrading from 4G to 5G, which reached 1.96m units for Q2, to help boost higher-value segments as people look to enhance their online experience,” says Senior Analyst Glen Cardoza. “This is good news for the mid-end of the market, which today delivers some incredible value in terms of specs.”

“We are also keeping our eye on e-sports and smartphone gaming in the region. We expect specs to support this type of gaming to become mainstream across mid-end devices. Hence, beyond 5G, we see this as another upgrade driver, particularly amongst younger users – a massive demographic in Indonesia.”

Background:

Analyst Contacts:

Febriman Abdillah

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research

press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Indonesia Bets on 4G to Increase Mobile Internet Coverage; 5G to Focus on Industry for Now

Indonesia’s mobile telecom subscriptions increased 5% YoY in Q1 2022 to reach 362 million, which is 33% higher than the country’s population of 273 million. However, Indonesia wants to accelerate digitalization keeping in view Industry 4.0. In this regard, the country’s mobile network operators (MNOs) are upgrading infrastructure to expand internet coverage through 4G and selective development of 5G networks.

The country’s smartphone shipments increased 11.5% YoY in Q1 2022, according to Counterpoint Research’s Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker. Demand for smartphones increased during the pandemic. It grew even further with the economic recovery that started in the second half of 2021. New mobile subscriptions are mostly coming from new and existing smartphone users. A smartphone requires a data plan to access the internet if not using Wi-Fi.

Source: Counterpoint Research Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker

There are currently four MNOs in Indonesia after the merger of Indosat Ooredoo (ISAT) and Hutchinson 3 Indonesia (H3I) in early 2022. They will play an important role in expanding and improving mobile internet connectivity across the country.

Telkomsel is the largest MNO and covered 48% of the market in Q1 2022. 68% of its 174.5 million subscribers are mobile data users. Telkomsel has base transceiver stations (BTSs) at 247,000 locations across the country, out of which more than 60% are 4G BTSs. Telkomsel has launched low-denomination data plans to attract more middle-class and younger consumers, which resulted in an ARPU decline of 5% YoY in Q1 2022 to $2.87 (IDR 41,000).

The combined ISAT and H3I, named Indosat Ooredoo Hutchinson (IOH), is the second-largest MNO with 94.6 million subscribers. Its blended ARPU fell 2.1% YoY in Q1 2022 to reach $2.24 (IDR 32,000), thanks to low-denomination data plans. After the merger, reallocation of ISAT and H3I BTSs is required. The combined network will bring a wider range for a better 5G rollout as the two had 1800 MHz in different sub-ranges.

XL Axiata’s subscriber base has been almost stable over the past two years with a blended ARPU of $2.52 (IDR 36,000). XL’s 4G BTSs increased by 47% YoY in Q1 2022 to reach 83,000 (61% of its total BTSs). Its focus on customer needs makes XL offer attractive and relevant products and services from time to time. This helps it to retain its customer base.

Smartfren is a full 4G network operator. It shifted from CDMA to 4G in 2015 at 850 MHz and 2300 MHz frequencies. It had around 44,000 4G BTSs by the end of 2021. Smartfren has shown stronger performance since 2020 and had a 10% share of the market in Q1 2022. The operator is known for its affordable internet packages and for its focus on low-mid consumers. Even though its ARPU is the lowest at around $1.75 (IDR 25,000), its 4G quality is good thanks to the aggregation of 850 MHz and 2300 MHz frequencies.

* Indosat Ooredoo and H3I combined subscriber base as IOH in Q1 2022
Source: Company annual reports and Counterpoint Research analysis

During the pandemic restrictions, MNOs launched various digital services and partnered with other digital ecosystem players to support consumer activities through smartphones. This MNO push was triggered by the increased demand for cellular connectivity both in quality and quantity terms.

The MNOs are now focusing on two major steps in terms of increasing mobile internet penetration – 4G network expansion and 5G network development with a focus on the industrial sector.

Mobile internet spread via 4G

During the COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 and 2021, the need for a better mobile internet experience was felt more strongly as people were forced to remain indoors. Some customers were also prompted to upgrade from 3G to 4G. As a result, the MNOs were prompted to adopt 4G technology faster to improve customer experience.

The MNOs have been improving their network quality by increasing the capacity of internet gateways, adding 4G BTSs and strengthening networks, especially in residential areas. The MNOs’ preference for 4G networks, which also requires switching from 3G to 4G infrastructure, will improve mobile internet reach and quality in the country.

The MNOs aim to complete the migration from 3G to 4G by the end of 2022. The 3G shutdown has also been triggered by the fact that the 3G customer base is now comparatively small and shrinking. A 3G shutdown also allows for achieving network efficiency by maximizing the 4G spectrum and helps in 5G allocation. Indonesia’s government too looks at this migration from 3G to 4G as a step towards accelerating digital adoption in the country.

As MNOs switch from 3G to 4G, all new smartphones in the market are now 4G or 5G.

Source: Counterpoint Research Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker

Selective 5G network development

While 4G migration is near completion, 5G technology is gradually being introduced in Indonesia. So far, 5G has been commercially introduced by Telkomsel, IOH and XL (all in 2021). Smartfren has just received approval for a commercial launch in 2022.

As of now, 4G technology can mostly address the digital needs of the consumer segment, but it may not be sufficient for the industrial sector to usher in Industry 4.0. The MNOs are developing 5G infrastructure carefully while building relevant use cases to promote the latest network technology. This approach will limit 5G coverage but optimize its benefits. Allocation of a limited spectrum to deploy 5G networks is one reason for being selective in expanding 5G coverage, apart from developing a 5G backbone, which requires laying of fiber optic cables throughout the country.

The table below shows smaller spectrum allocation for 5G deployment. Due to this limitation, the MNOs have chosen select cities and areas for 5G coverage. While discussions on opening other potential 5G bands continue, the government aims to complete analog TV shutdown in 2022 and use its 700 MHz frequency for 5G.

The industries that can gain the most from 5G technology are the ones that require machine-to-machine connectivity, automation and low latency. 5G private networks can also be chosen to meet these and other specific needs. The Indonesian government has selected five industries as priority industries for 5G private network development – residential; industrial area and fabrication with automation; high-risk mining; health; and tourism. MNOs and enterprises can proactively collaborate in generating use cases for 5G technology.

What next?

While 4G remains the backbone of mobile connectivity in Indonesia, the digital ecosystem must be ready to face the next wave of technology – 5G. From its initial use in the industrial sector to welcome Industry 4.0, the 5G coverage can be gradually expanded to other sectors. Here, it is important that the network technology of 5G devices in the market must be compatible with the 5G bands available in Indonesia. One of the media that can bring 5G technology closer to consumers is the metaverse. Metaverse applications are expected to drive 5G growth in the consumer sector.

Indonesia Smartphone Market Grows 11.5% YoY in Q1 2022; OPPO Stays at Top

Indonesia’s smartphone market grew 11.5% YoY in Q1 2022, reflecting the post-Covid revival in demand.
OPPO led the market with a 22.3% share, followed by vivo and Samsung at 20.6% and 17.7% respectively.
5G smartphone share in the total smartphone volume reached 16% in Q1 2022 from 4% in Q1 2021.

Jakarta, Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – May 20, 2022

Indonesia’s smartphone market grew 11.5% YoY in Q1 2022, according to Counterpoint Research’s Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker. The growth was achieved due to the economic recovery that started in the second half of 2021. Major OEMs also launched new models as well as promotional marketing campaigns during the quarter to keep up with the increased consumer demand.

Top OEMs’ Share in Indonesia Smartphone Market, Q1 2021 vs Q1 2022

Source: Counterpoint Research Monthly Indonesia Smartphone Channel Share Tracker

Indonesia’s smartphone landscape is leaning towards the low-to-mid segments (<$249) where Chinese brands like OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi and realme are aggressive. We saw several new smartphone launches in Q1 2022 which also contributed to the increased smartphone volume and impacted brand share accordingly.

OPPO remained the top brand in the market in Q1 2022 but its gap with rivals vivo and Samsung narrowed. OPPO launched its new Reno series and together with its popular A series, managed to secure its position in the low-mid segment. OPPO is committed to providing 5G smartphones at more affordable prices in 2022.

The popularity of vivo’s Y and V series continued in the low-tier and mid-tier segments. The launch of the Y75 and V23 5G models showed vivo’s push to provide more affordable 5G smartphones.

Samsung started 2022 with an improved share of 18%. The bulk of Samsung’s products in the low and middle segments, like the A and M series, worked well, supported by several new launches like the S21 FE, S22, A03 and A53. Interestingly, the S22 Ultra, the top model in the S22 series, was the preferred one in the premium segment. This model attracted not only those upgrading from the S21 series but also Note users due to its S-Pen feature.

Despite facing supply chain issues in late 2021, which brought down its share considerably, Xiaomi managed to launch the Note 11 series in late Q1 2022, showing the brand’s commitment to enter the high-end segment.

realme strengthened its position as an affordable brand by adding the C31 and Narzo series to its product portfolio for the low-tier segment. Its new flagship 9 Pro series for the affordable premium segment also received a warm welcome from consumers.

OEMs’ promotional marketing activities had started even before Ramadan festivities in April. More promotions were offered through OEMs’ online channels and in partnership with e-commerce players. The promotions included discounts, cashbacks, gifts and item bundling. All OEMs were aiming to benefit from the economic recovery and pent-up demand.

With more people in a position to visit physical stores following relaxation in pandemic restrictions, online channel penetration was up by only 1% from 17% in Q1 2022.

5G smartphone penetration reached 16% in Q1 2022, compared to 4% in Q1 2021. 5G smartphones were still focused on the mid-upper price segments, but we will see more affordable 5G smartphones later this year. OEMs have been aggressive with 5G launches, anticipating further increase in the country’s 5G infrastructure after a reduction in COVID-19 resurgences and limited economic impact of the pandemic compared to Indonesia’s neighbors.

On the 2022 outlook, Senior Analyst Febriman Abdillah said, “Indonesia’s smartphone market will have a promising 2022 ahead. OEMs will continue to launch new models, bring more affordable 5G smartphones and drive online channel sales by partnering with e-commerce portals. The $150-$249 price range could become the fastest growing smartphone segment, accounting for 35% of the market.”

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background:

Analyst Contacts:

Febriman Abdillah

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research

press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Indonesia Smartphone Shipments Reached Highest Ever in 2021; OPPO Captured Top Spot

Indonesia’s smartphone shipments grew 5% YoY in 2021 to reach the highest ever.
OPPO led the market with a 21.8% share driven by its strong retail strategy.
Online share in total shipments reached the highest ever at 18%.
5G smartphone shipments had an 11% market share in 2021, compared to just 1% in 2020.

Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – March 22, 2022

Indonesia’s smartphone market grew 5% YoY in 2021 to reach its highest ever shipments in a single year, according to Counterpoint Research’s Monthly Indonesia Channel Share Tracker. The growth was due to pent-up demand during the first half of the year, good performance of mid-tier smartphones and 5G adoption driving some of the users to upgrade their devices. The Indonesian economy also started to recover in the second half of 2021 as the restrictions and lockdowns were relaxed, triggering a rebound in the demand for mobile phones.

Commenting on the Indonesian smartphone market, Research Analyst Tanvi Sharma said, “Brands like OPPO brought bundled offers and campaigns like Joy-Full, which provided benefits and after-sales promos. There were also strategic partnerships between major OEMs and e-commerce players, like between vivo and JD.com. Had it not been for the component shortages during the second half, the growth would have been even higher. To meet the challenge, brands focused on their mid-tier portfolios and increased the selling price in some cases to pass on the increased cost to the end consumer.”

The online portion of total shipments accounted for 18% in 2021. There was an online push in the country by major brands during shopping festivals such as 10.10, 11.11 and Harbolnas 12.12. In addition to providing attractive deals, campaigns were also held to support micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in developing businesses in the digital realm. However, offline retail continued to dominate the shipments. Erajaya, the country’s biggest distributor, opened 38 outlets simultaneously to expand its coverage area.

5G smartphone shipments took an 11% market share in 2021, compared to just 1% in 2020. With the commercial rollout of 5G services in the country, 5G handsets are gaining popularity. It is expected that the initial use cases such as enhanced mobile broadband (eMbb) and fixed wireless access (FWA) will enrich the internet experience of consumers, contributing to faster adoption of the technology. To drive further expansion of 5G, communication service providers are expected to form strategic alliances with other ecosystem players to bring innovative services to attract consumers.

Market Summary:

OPPO dominated the Indonesian smartphone market in 2021 by capturing a market share of 22%. Its A series played a big role in this growth. The brand remained committed to ensuring product availability through both offline and online channels.
vivo’s growth was catalyzed by its diverse product portfolio covering all segments. The popularity of the Y series ensured its growth while the mid-tier V series did well during the year. The premium X series also got positive reviews and mind share.
Samsung did well in 2021 as it expanded its product portfolio in the affordable segment, which is grabbing more attention from the consumers. Samsung is also revamping its channel strategy for the country. It had faced some challenges in 2020.
Xiaomi’s shipments declined as it was hit the hardest by supply chain issues. But despite this, the brand captured the fourth position in the quarter.
realme saw fast growth and was among the top five brands. To get ahead of chipset shortage issues, the OEM may be looking for opportunities and strategic partnerships, like the one it entered with UNISOC.
The $150-$250 price band is advancing faster in the Indonesian market as users in the entry tier are upgrading fast.

In 2022, we will see tough competition for the top spot. The ASP (average selling price) for 5G smartphones will continue to see a slow decrease. Mid-tier smartphones are most likely to witness increased demand this year thanks to a continued focus on digital transformation and 5G network expansion. We are estimating a mid-single-digit growth rate in 2022.

Background:

Analyst Contacts:

Tanvi Sharma

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Top

Insights Tag: Indonesia

TECNO, Infinix, Apple Fastest-growing Smartphone Brands in Southeast Asia

Related Posts

Apple Shines in a Declining Southeast Asia Smartphone Market

Related Posts

Electric Vehicles Gain Ground in Southeast Asia; Thailand Dominates Volumes