India’s smartphone shipments are expected to fall 5% YoY in 2022, dipping for the second time in the last three years.
Weak demand in entry-level segments hit sales even as the premium segment continued to grow.
The market is expected to grow by 10% in 2023 to reach 175 million units.
New Delhi, London, Hong Kong, Seoul, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires – December 22, 2022
India’s smartphone shipments are expected to fall 5% YoY in 2022, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest projections. The inflationary macro environment, component shortages and rise in their prices, and wild cards like the Russia-Ukraine war and weakness in the overall global economy affected the smartphone market globally, including in India.
The Indian market has seen a steady rise in the last five years barring the COVID-19-hit 2020 to grow 1.5 times from 2016 to 2021. The market is projected to grow 10% in 2023 to reach 175 million units.
What happened in 2022?
The market failed to meet expectations in 2022. It started the year with component shortages. But even as the situation resolved on the supply side by the first half of 2022, the consumer demand did not improve as expected. The weak demand was especially felt in the entry and mid-level price bands owing to the increase in retail prices due to the rise in component prices and inflationary macro environment. The premium market continued to grow in 2022 with the >INR 30,000 ($400) price band reaching a new high. The continued premiumization of the market is the main reason why it saw positive revenue growth with the highest-ever average selling price (ASP) of close to INR 20,000 ($250).
High installed base: India currently has more than 600 million smartphone users, a number which is expected to grow over time as more feature phone users migrate to smartphones. The replacement demand from these users will drive the market in 2023 and beyond.
5G push: 5G networks are now live in multiple cities. Even though 5G smartphones have been making news in the market, they will account for just one-third of the market in 2022. 5G has been high on Indian consumers’ wish lists and with 5G networks now being available, many consumers will replace their 4G smartphones in 2023.
Government purchase of smartphones to push sales: The state of Rajasthan has rolled out a tender for the acquisition and distribution of smartphones among women in 2023.
Improvement in macro environment: We also expect the inflationary macro environment to get better next year. Therefore, consumers who postponed buying a new phone in 2022 will be able to buy a new one in 2023.
Long-term outlook remains positive
Despite the dip in 2022, India’s smartphone market has been resilient and performed better than many other regions. A large installed base, feature phone-to-smartphone migration, local smartphone production, development of supply chain and the emergence of newer use cases will continue to grow the market in the longer term.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Xiaomi led the market in Q3 2021 with a 22% shipment share. Four out of the top five models during the quarter were from Xiaomi
Samsung led the mid-to upper-tier price segment (INR 10,000 – INR 30,000) with a 25% market share.
OnePlus registered its highest ever shipments in India. Nord series cumulative shipments crossed 3 million units.
5G smartphone shipments crossed the 10-million mark for the first time, vivo leads.
realme led the 5G segment in the sub-INR 20,000 price tier with the highest ever shipments.
New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires – October 28, 2021
India’s smartphone shipments declined 2% YoY to reach over 52 million units in Q3 2021, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service. The decline can be attributed to higher pent-up demand last year due to COVID-19. The smartphone market continues to show signs of resiliency and the quarterly numbers would have been even higher if not for the component shortages that escalated during the quarter.
Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Research AnalystPrachir Singh said, “Smartphone shipments maintained a strong momentum after the second COVID-19 wave. The consumer demand outweighed the supply due to the high pent-up demand. Keeping in mind the global component shortage, most of the brands were aggressively working to secure enough stock for the festive season. The demand in the online channels remained strong and reached highest-ever shipments in Q3 2021.”
Commenting on the competitive landscape and brand strategies, Research Analyst Monika Sharma said, “Chinese brands captured 74% share in the Indian smartphone market in Q3 2021. Xiaomi led the market with a 22% share driven by the Redmi 9 series and Redmi Note 10 series. The Redmi 9A remained the top-selling smartphone model during Q3 2021 as well. Samsung captured the second spot with a 19% share. The online-focused Galaxy M series and F series drove its shipments along with the newly launched Galaxy A series models which saw high demand in the offline channels. Samsung is focusing on providing maximum 5G bands in its 5G models to differentiate itself from the competition. Strong volumes of vivo’s Y-series and V-series smartphones led the brand to capture the third spot with a 15% share. realme captured the fourth spot with a 14% share driven by its budget segment C series. OPPO took the fifth spot with 10% share.”
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q3 2021
Note: Xiaomi’s share includes the POCO brand
India’s overall mobile handset market declined 5% YoY in Q3 2021. Samsung regained the top position in the handset market, capturing an 18% share in Q3 2021. The feature phone market declined 12% YoY in Q3 2021 as the migration to smartphones continued. itel led the feature phone market, taking 27% share followed by Lava, Nokia HMD and Samsung. itel has been leading the feature phone market for the last eight consecutive quarters.
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q3 2021
Note: Xiaomi’s share includes the POCO brand
Market Summary:
Xiaomi retained the top position in India’s smartphone market with a 22% share driven by the Redmi 9 series and Redmi Note 10 series. Xiaomi captured the top four positions in the list of best-selling models with its Redmi 9A, Redmi 9 Power, Redmi Note 10 and Redmi 9 models. All these four models clocked more than a million shipments. The Redmi 9A has been the best-selling model in 2021 till date. Xiaomi reached its highest ever shipments in the premium segment in Q3 2021 driven by Mi 11x series.
Samsung remained the second-largest smartphone brand in India with its shipments registering a 19% share. The brand captured the second position in the 5G segment, driven by the Galaxy M42, M52, A22 and A52s models. Samsung was the top smartphone brand in the INR 10,000 – INR 30,000 band. The brand also led the 5G multiple-band support segment (more than five bands) with a 38% share. Newly launched Galaxy Z Fold 3 and Z Flip 3 had a strong start in India. We are expecting the fold series is likely to surpass the lifetime revenue contribution of any Galaxy note series in the past and help Samsung to grow faster in the Ultra-premium segment.
vivo held the third position in Q3 2021 with a 15% share. It became the top 5G smartphone brand for the first time in Q3 2021, while remaining the top offline smartphone player as well. vivo registered its highest ever shipments in the premium segment driven by the X60, V21 and iQOO series. The brand reached its highest ever ASP (average selling price), which can be attributed to the increased focus on the premium segment through the V-series and iQOO-series smartphones.
realme captured the fourth position in Q3 2021 with a 14% share. It was the top 5G smartphone brand in the sub-INR 20,000 price band. The realme 8 5G and realme 8s 5G were the top two 5G smartphone models in the sub-INR 20,000 price band and captured almost half of the market.
OPPO took the fifth position in Q3 2021 with a 10% share. The OPPO A54 was the top smartphone model in the INR 10,000 – INR 20,000 price band. The brand captured the third spot in this price band. The OPPO F19 series and Reno 6 series led the brand in capturing the fourth position in the INR 20,000 – INR 30,000 band.
Transsion Group brands (itel, Infinix and TECNO) registered 72% YoY growth, which is the second highest among top brands, and captured a 9% share collectively in the overall India smartphone market. itel remained the top smartphone brand in the sub-INR 6,000 price band, capturing more than 60% of the segment. Also, in the sub-INR 8,000 price band, Transsion brands led the market with more than 30% share. Transsion brands captured the second position in the sub-INR 10,000 band for the first time. itel has been leading the feature phone market for the last eight consecutive quarters.
Apple was the fastest growing brand in Q3 2021 with 212% YoY growth and led the premium smartphone market (> INR 30,000) with a 44% share. The brand maintained its leading position in the ultra-premium segment (> INR 45,000 or ~$650) with a 74% share. Strong demand for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 11 were the major factors in Apple’s growth. Apple became the top 5G smartphone brand in the premium segment for the first time.
OnePlus grew 55% YoY in Q3 2021 driven by the OnePlus Nord Series. During the quarter, OnePlus also registered its highest ever shipments in India. The brand captured the second spot in the premium segment (> INR 30,000). OnePlus took two spots in the list of top 5G smartphones in the premium segment. The newly launched OnePlus Nord 2 5G and Nord CE 5G were the driving factors in OnePlus growth. Nord series cumulative shipments cross 3 million units.
5G smartphone shipments crossed the 10-million mark for the first time in Q3 2021. 5G with multiple band support (>5 bands) captured 50% of the 5G smartphone market for the first time. vivo became the top 5G smartphone brand for the first time. It was followed by Samsung, OnePlus and realme.
Online channels captured around 55% of the smartphone shipments during the quarter.
The comprehensive and in-depth Q3 2021 Market Monitor is available for subscribing clients. Feel free to contact us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.
The Market Monitor research relies on sell-in (shipments) estimates based on vendors’ IR results and vendor polling, triangulated with sell-through (sales), supply chain checks and secondary research.
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service, the smartphone shipments in India grew a healthy 15% annually in Q4 2015 (Oct-Dec). During CY 2015, Indian smartphone shipments grew 23% YoY to cross the 100 Million units milestone.
“India Smartphone user base grew to 220 Million users by end of 2015 surpassing USA for the first time ever”
Market Summary for Q4 2015:
Smartphones: More than 40% of the mobile phones shipped were smartphones
4G LTE Smartphone: More than one in two smartphones shipped during the quarter were LTE smartphone
Make in India: Almost half of mobile phones sold during the quarter were “Made in India” with 20+ mobile phone brands now assembling their phones in India.
Domestic brands such as Intex and Lava have considerably closed the gap with the second largest mobile phone or the number one domestic mobile phone brand Micromax
Almost one in three smartphones were sold through online channels during the year.
Exhibit 1: India Mobile Phone and Smartphone Shipments 4Q 2015
Samsung
Samsung led the overall mobile phone market and the smartphone segment during the quarter with market shares of 23.6% and 28.6% respectively.
It also retained top slot for the entire calendar year with market shares of 19.8% and 25.7% in overall mobile phone market and smartphone market respectively.
Samsung’s J series drove volumes for the Korean giant as it ramped up the series by launching multiple SKUs in the entry to mid-level segment.
Three out of the top five smartphones during the quarter were from J series with J2 being the best-selling smartphone in India during the quarter.
It used its distribution prowess to gain a much needed foothold in the $100-$200 segment where it is facing stiff competition from local and Chinese brands. However, it continues to lose market share in sub $100 price segment.
It also led the LTE smartphone segment during the quarter
Micromax
Micromax maintained the second position in both overall mobile phone market and the smartphone segment, with market shares of 13.7% and 14.3% respectively.
It also retained second position for the entire calendar year with a market share of 13.5% and 16.1% in overall mobile phone market and smartphone market respectively.
However, it faced intense competition in $50-$100 price segment from other local brands which led to decline in shipments during the quarter.
It was the number three LTE player during the quarter
Micromax’s Cyanogen-based online-only brand ‘Yu’ launched its high-end LTE model ‘Yutopia’ during the quarter extending its portfolio from cheapest LTE to its costliest LTE phone ever.
Micromax Yu brand crossed 2 Million units in CY 2015 signifying growing user base as it plans to scale up Yu ecosystem deeply integrating O2O services such as “Around Yu”.
Intex
Intex cemented its third position in the overall handset market during the quarter and for the entire year with market share’s of 13% and 10.4% respectively.
It lost its number three spot in the smartphone market to Lenovo during the quarter with a market share of 9.6%. However, it ended the year as third largest smartphone vendor with a market share of 10.4% driven by growth in entry level smartphones.
Demand for Intex products remains strong sub-$100 smartphone price band which is the key reason for its growth. However, the vendor needs to scale portfolio and drive volumes in mid-tier smartphone segment to capture the growing number of upgrades.
Intex is an official sponsor for IPL cricket tournament’s newest team and will be thus looking forward to aggressively market its new line of LTE smartphones.
Others:
Lava (excluding Xolo) maintained the fourth spot in the overall handset market and 7% share in the smartphone market in Q4 2015 with healthy demand for Lava Iris and Flair series.
Lenovo including Motorola raced to third position in smartphone segment for the first time ever in India surpassing Intex with a market share of 11% during the quarter.
Lenovo was also the second largest LTE player during the quarter and for the entire year.
Meanwhile, Apple achieved a landmark – crossing 2 Million units in a calendar year for the first time ever in India, helped by a strong fourth quarter.
Apple still only commands 2% volume share of smartphones, though its high prices means it had the third largest revenue share in 2015. This highlights the prowess of Apple’s brand equity and control over high-value & high-profit premium segment.
Microsoft lost its place among the top five brands in a quarter for the first time ever as Lumia shipments declined sequentially and annually.
Meanwhile, other brands that grew significantly during the quarter included the Chinese players Oneplus, Coolpad and Meizu.
2016 will be a highly competitive year as brands such as Huawei (with Honor), LeTV and Vivo expand with aggressive offerings to compete head-on with other Indian and Chinese players
Exhibit 2: India Mobile Phone and Smartphone Shipments CY 2015
The comprehensive and in-depth Q4 2015 and CY 2015 Market Monitor is available for subscribing clients. Please feel free to contact us at analyst@counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our in-depth latest research, insights or press enquiries.
The Market Monitor research is based on sell-in (shipments) estimates based on vendor’s reported results, vendor polling triangulated with sell-through (sales), supply chain checks and secondary research.
According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service, the smartphone shipments in India grew a healthy 20% annually and 12% sequentially in Q3 2015 (July-Sept). More than one in three mobile phones shipped in India is now a smartphone.
The Indian mobile phone market demand is back on track after declining for two consecutive quarters fueled by cheaper smartphones as more and more feature phone users quickly upgrade to smartphones for the first time.
Market Summary for Q3 2015:
Smartphones: More than One in Three mobile phones shipped were smartphones
Online Sales: One in Three smartphones sold were through online channels such as Flipkart, Amazon, Snapdeal and so forth
4G LTE Smartphone: One in Three smartphones shipped were LTE smartphone
Make in India: One in Four mobile phones sold during the quarter was “Made in India”
Samsung
Samsung continued to lead the overall mobile phone market and the smartphone segment during the quarter with market shares of 19.0% and 23.2% respectively
Samsung benefitted from expanding its critical mid-tier portfolio with launch of J series during the quarter which drove smartphone volumes for the vendor
However, the Korean vendor lost share sequentially with minor presence in sub $100 smartphone segment which is fastest-growing and dominated by Indian and Chinese brands
Samsung’s A series brought in a welcome design change for Samsung with thinner and flatter designs in the mid- to high tier becoming the ‘halo devices’ taking focus away from S6 series. This design language is also trickling down to the new J series helping to strengthen its position in this segment. Additionally, strong offline distribution has also helped Samsung drive J series shipments during the quarter
Though Samsung led the LTE smartphone segment as most of the mid-to high-tier Galaxy models are LTE ready.
Micromax
Micromax maintained the second position in both overall mobile phone market and the smartphone segment with a market share of 13.7% and 17.7% respectively.
The brand’s share from online channel increased during the quarter. However, it is now facing pressure competition in $50-$100 price segment from Intex, Lava and others.
Micromax’s Cyanogen based online only brand ‘Yu’ launched its cheapest LTE model ‘Yunique’ during the quarter and the brand has been growing steadily ever since its launch.
Micromax Yu brand alone is now selling more smartphones than Xiaomi online, depicting it’s going to be challenging even for popular brands such as Xiaomi to scale in Indian market
Intex
Continuing its momentum from Q2 2015, Intex cemented its position in top three brands in India third spot in both overall and smartphone segment.
Intex’s smartphone market share jumped to double digit level for the first time ever capturing close to 12% of the smartphone market during the quarter.
Demand for Intex products in the fastest growing sub-$100 smartphone price band remains strong which is the key reason for its growth. However, the vendor needs to improve its position in “affordable premium” segment.
Intex also expanded its LTE portfolio during the quarter and remained aggressive in terms of promotional activities with “key feature” focused SKUs such as bigger batteries, bigger memory and so forth.
Others:
Lava (excluding Xolo) surpassed Microsoft for the first time and thereby capturing fourth spot in the overall handset market.
Lava managed to increase its smartphone market share to 7% level with healthy demand for Lava IRIS series, especially the ATOM 2 and X1 selfie smartphone were among the bestselling models
Lenovo including Motorola raced to fourth position in smartphone segment, primarily due to strong sales of its K3 Note
Lenovo’s K3 Note was the best-selling smartphone in India during Q3 2015 hitting the sweet spot in terms of specs vs price among all vendors.
Lenovo (incl Motorola) crossed 2 million units in India for the first time ever continuing its momentum in India offsetting weakness in its home market China
However, Lenovo will need to realign its offline vs online strategy going forward to position the two brands separately and overlapping of SKUs across brands affects the operational performance which has been weakened since Motorola’s acquisition.
Xiaomi underwent its first sequential decline in India since its debut. The upstart Chinese vendor smartphone shipments declined by almost 46% due to fierce competition from Lenovo and Micromax’s Yu brands especially in the higher volume sub-$100 segment.
Meanwhile, Apple’s finished its Fiscal year in India with record 1.7 Million units in India for the first time ever due to strong sales of its new iPhone 6 series
However, Apple’s volume market share remains around 1% level but in terms of revenue share it is the third largest brand with almost 9% share which depicts the prowess of Apple’s brand equity and premiumness
Microsoft also found its place among top five overall mobile phone brands during the quarter but Lumia shipments declined sequentially.
Meanwhile, the other brands which grew significantly during the quarter were Panasonic, Vivo and Oppo
The comprehensive and in-depth Q3 2015 Market Monitor is available for subscribing clients. Please feel free to contact us at analyst@counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our in-depth latest research, insights or press enquiries.
The Market Monitor research is based on sell-in (shipments) estimates based on vendor’s IR results, vendor polling triangulated with sell-through (sales), supply chain checks and secondary research.
According to latest research from Quarterly Market Monitor service, Asia was one of the fastest growing market in terms of mobile phones and smartphones volumes in Q3 2013. Within Asia, India was the fastest growing and the third largest smartphone market in Q3 2013. Most of this growth was driven by Asian brands across China and India such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Coolpad, Micromax, Karbonn, etc.
Micromax from India surpassed HTC, Motorola and Blackberry to become the 11th largest mobile phone brand globally for the first time positioned behind tenth ranked Coolpad in Q3 2013. Micromax was also the third largest handset brand and second largest smartphone brand in India shipping a record high mobile phones and within those smartphone volumes in Q3 2013. Micromax thus captured a record 14% share in its domestic smartphone market and 12% in the domestic mobile phone market.
The key to success for Micromax and other domestic brands have been aggressive go-to-market strategy with focus on distribution and heavy marketing expenditure. Micromax started with tier- 2 and tier-3 towns targeting low-income rural consumers with low-cost feature phones and moving up to the tier-1 suburban and urban towns. Micromax over last three years has spent millions of dollars in brand building activities (e.g. TV Spots, Retail branding, hero spots, etc) with hundreds of millions of dollars in getting brand ambassadors from popular Indian sportsperson, Bollywood actors to now even Hollywood actors (e.g. Hugh Jackman) to support international expansion. They have also spent huge dollars on sponsoring big sports events (e.g. Cricket) in India, UAE & other SAARC Countries such as Sri Lanka, Nepal & Bangladesh.
With further international expansion and tapping domestic mobile phone demand , Micromax can crack into the top 10 global mobile phones brand in coming quarters. All eyes will be on this fast growing India handset brand on how soon it can join the big boys.
Source: Market Monitor Q3 2013
– Neil Shah
@neiltwitz
For press enquiry or additional questions please email analyst@counterpointresearch.com
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