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Google Puts Auto Expansion in Top Gear

  • Google has been making news in the automotive industry this year. First, with the announcement of HD Maps to support assisted driving and then with a partnership with Mercedes Benz to develop Mercedes-branded navigation.
  • Google’s deal with Mercedes is interesting. Google will be licensing services including YouTube and map data to Mercedes but without the automotive OS, and it will not control the data.
  • Apple sees the growth potential in the auto industry and likely wants a piece of the pie. This is hinted by Apple’s move to introduce next-generation CarPlay, which will deeply integrate with the vehicle to take over interior screens and instrument cluster.

Since the beginning of 2023, Google has been making news in the automotive industry. First, with the announcement of HD Maps to support assisted driving and then with a partnership with Mercedes Benz to develop Mercedes-branded navigation. The nature of this partnership is unfamiliar to Google; the company usually wants to be in control of the data. So, the question is why Google chose to form this uncommon partnership. To answer this, we have to look at Google’s automotive journey.

Google’s entry into automotive industry

Google is ubiquitous in smartphones thanks to the strong Android user base. The company wanted to bring the same Google services experience to the car through in-vehicle infotainment (IVI). Android Auto bridged the gap between smartphones and cars and allowed its customers to use Google-based apps for navigation, entertainment and communication, as well as Google Assistant. Over time, Android Auto started gaining popularity as users liked being able to have a similar experience across their phones and vehicles, and additionally use free services like Google Maps. According to Counterpoint Research estimates, around 90% of car models sold in the US in 2022 support Android Auto.

Source: Counterpoint Analysis

This is a strong performance, but it was not an easy road for Google/Android Auto to get accepted by auto OEMs as data privacy concerns always loom around Google. Companies like Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, GM and Honda were early adopters of Android Auto, while others, including BMW, Toyota, Lexus, Jaguar Land Rover and Infiniti, didn’t introduce Android Auto compatibility until 2018-2020 after getting repeated requests from owners. In the US, the Android installed base is slightly close to 50%, whereas in Europe it is over 70% and close to 80% for the global market. Therefore, it is not surprising that most drivers from these brands own phones running on Android.

Source: Counterpoint Analysis

Google’s ambitious plan to capture automotive market

Google set its sights beyond IVI to take on the challenge of autonomous vehicles (AV) and software-defined vehicles (SDV) with the 2016 formation of Waymo, which started as a self-driving research project, and the announcement of Android Automotive OS, an expansion of its Android Auto initiative. Android Automotive OS (AAOS) is an open-source OS, somewhat replicating Google’s smartphone OS strategy. Running directly on in-vehicle hardware (i.e. head unit), it is a highly modular and full-stack open platform and supports apps built for Android as well as those built for Android Auto.

One standout feature is that AAOS has a suite of applications and services called Google Automotive Services (GAS), which is often marketed as Google Built-in by automakers. The GAS suite offers options to carmakers to integrate different services from Google, like Maps, Play Store and Assistant, directly into the vehicle without the need for an Android smartphone. Automakers can obtain GAS through a licensing fee on top of Android Automotive.

Currently, there are around 20 models available with Android Auto. The latest addition to the list is the 2023 Honda Accord. Several other automakers have announced plans to move to AAOS, but not every automaker is interested in GAS. We list below some major automakers and their plans to use Android Auto and Google services.

Volvo and Polestar: Volvo brand Polestar, with its Polestar 2, was the first automaker to adopt Android Automotive with GAS integration. Volvo’s first all-electric XC40 Recharge was also the first car to run on Android Automotive. In 2022, Volvo announced from 2023 onwards would be equipped with Google infotainment.

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi: In 2018, the alliance announced a partnership with Google to run its infotainment systems on Android Automotive. Renault’s Megane E-Tech was the first car to run on Android OS with GAS. In 2022, the Renault Austral was launched based on Android Automotive. Nissan and Mitsubishi have not announced any plans to launch models based on Google.

General Motors: In 2019, GM announced that its in-vehicle infotainment system would be powered by Android Automotive and feature Google apps and services for vehicles starting 2021. The GMC Hummer EV became the first GM car to be run on Android Automotive with GAS integration. Later, in 2022, mainstream models like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Chevrolet Suburban, Chevrolet Silverado, GMC Sierra and GMC Yukon were launched with Google Built-in.

Stellantis: Before the merger between PSA and FCA, PSA Group announced that Android Automotive would be powering its in-car infotainment system starting from 2023 models. In a different approach, FCA launched the Uconnect 5 based on Android Automotive but without GAS. But after the merger of both brands into Stellantis, the whole group is integrating AAOS for the IVI system.

Ford: Joining its US rival GM, Ford announced a partnership with Google in 2021 to run its SYNC infotainment system, which currently runs on Blackberry QNX OS. Ford plans to integrate GAS into its vehicles from late 2023 onwards.

Honda: The Japanese company was one of the early adopters of Android Automotive OS for the in-car infotainment system with its Honda Connect, based on NVIDIA’s Tegra processor. In 2021, Honda announced the integration of GAS into its vehicles from H2 2022. The 2023 Accord is the first Honda car with Google Built-in services.

BMW: The German brand took a different approach, announcing in 2022 that its new BMW OS 9 would be built on Android Automotive OS. But due to data privacy concerns, it is reluctant to integrate GAS. BMW is also an investor in navigation services provider HERE Technologies.

Lucid: The American company adopted Android Automotive OS for infotainment but did not integrate GAS.

Porsche: The Volkswagen brand was one of the few carmakers that only offered Apple CarPlay but not Android Auto for many years. Porsche released its first car with Android Auto only in 2022. The VW group is facing a lot of criticism due to software issues that are delaying the launch of electric models from its brands Porsche, Audi and Bentley. Hence, Porsche is looking at a strategy shift by taking into account Android Automotive OS and integrating GAS, which will include Google Maps, Google Assistant and Google Play Store, into its IVI.

Google built-in by major automakers

Google’s road ahead

Google’s deal with Mercedes is interesting. Google will be licensing services including YouTube and map data to Mercedes but without the automotive OS, and it will not control the data. This shift in Google’s approach shows that it is willing to change its strategy to build trust with automakers, especially the Germans who are known to be apprehensive about data privacy.

With the major trends of electrification and ADAS/Autonomous Driving (AD), and some of the EV models already equipped with Google Maps, Google has been adding EV-related features such as EV routing and searching for charging stations in in-vehicle Google Maps. Besides, Google has announced HD Map support for Level-2 hands-free driving and Level-3 driving systems. HD Map will roll out first in the Volvo EX90 and Polestar 3.

Google Maps is challenging the territory of established players like HERE and TomTom. We expect Google will further develop its in-vehicle navigation to make EV use easier and support higher levels of automated driving.

Lastly, the next-generation vehicles will be software-defined vehicles. This will allow companies to generate various recurring software revenue streams. As a result, the car software market will grow. Apple sees this growth potential in the auto industry and likely wants a piece of the pie. This is hinted by Apple’s move to introduce next-generation CarPlay, which will deeply integrate with the vehicle to take over interior screens and instrument cluster, and allow users to control climate and radio. So far, 14 automakers have confirmed to integrate new CarPlay, which is set to launch in late 2023. Therefore, in the future, we may see Apple developing complete software that runs on the vehicle without a partner iPhone, similar to Android Automotive. There are reports that indicate Apple is working on its ‘Apple Car’ as several patents related to cars have been filed by the company. This will allow Apple to replicate its strategy of using its software and services to monetize its hardware.

Therefore, in the era of software-defined vehicles, we may see the next round of battle between tech giants Google and Apple, this time for supremacy in the automotive OS, which will be the heart and soul of the car.

Top 10 CES 2023 Automotive Announcements

The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES), held in Las Vegas from January 5 to 8 this year, focused primarily on the automotive, IoT, smart home, healthcare, metaverse and XR, AI and computing segments. Counterpoint’s automotive team analyzed over 150 automotive-related announcements during CES to identify key trends. The main focus of the automotive industry at this year’s CES was on electric vehicles (EV), followed by autonomous vehicles, infotainment, connectivity, components and maps. There was a lot of excitement surrounding autonomous vehicles at the event, but EVs accounted for the biggest share of news flow.

CES Automotive Announcement Trend Counterpoint

Here are the top 10 automotive announcements from this year’s CES, according to Counterpoint analysts:

1. Qualcomm unveils Snapdragon Ride Flex SoC to bring software-defined vehicles to reality

Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon Ride Flex SoC, a disruptive solution for expanding its low-power, advanced computing capabilities into the automotive space as part of its Snapdragon Digital Chassis initiative. This solution is built on a heterogenous compute architecture that addresses multiple workloads and is pre-integrated with the Snapdragon Ride Vision Stack. This gives automakers the flexibility to use the Ride Vision Stack across all vehicle tiers without sacrificing performance. In addition, its cloud-native architecture enables a smooth workflow for software development and deployment. The Snapdragon Ride Flex SoC is expected to go into production by 2024. Qualcomm is striving to maintain its leadership position in the software-defined vehicle era and make the transition easier for automakers and tier-1 suppliers.

SDV-Snapdragon-Ride-Flex-SoC

For a more detailed report on CES 2023’s automotive announcements, click here:

counterpoint download

2. Sony Honda Mobility introduces Afeela EV brand

Sony Honda Mobility finally announced its JV brand Afeela, which will bring its first EV model to North America in 2026 followed by Japan and Europe. Afeela’s first production model was teased at CES 2023. Sony and Honda announced their JV back in March 2022. Afeela will introduce a series of EV models that will carry Sony’s expertise in IVI systems, ADAS components and in-cabin electronics, while Honda will contribute to the brand’s performance with its e-powertrain system as well as battery sourcing and charging capabilities. According to the announcement, Afeela aims to offer better vehicles at a relatively lower cost. These EVs are expected to be positioned above Honda’s own EVs, but whether Afeela will share the same slot with Honda’s premium Acura brand is yet to be determined.

Afeela (Custom)

3. BMW previews next-gen color-changing concept with ‘digital emotional experience’

BWM previewed its next-gen 3 series concept model based on the Neue Klasse platform. The new i Vision Dee concept (Dee stands for ‘digital emotional experience’) showcased a monolithic exterior styling that can be divided into 240 different segments. The whole exterior can support different design styles like stripes, patterns and animation, and can curate up to 32 different colors. Though detailed specifications have not been shared, i Vision Dee features a new OS and a new fully controllable HUD with windscreen projection. Traditional infotainment has been removed. The dashboard conceals various touch sensors which can be used to display content on the HUD. The model will be powered by BMW’s sixth-generation EV powertrain and is expected to enter production in 2025 as a BMW i3 successor.

BMW i Vision Dee (Custom)

4. Volkswagen showcases new ID.7 wrapped in electroluminescent camouflage

Volkswagen showcased its sixth all-electric ID model, the VW ID.7, wrapped in special QR code-inspired camouflage to hide the final styling. The camouflage was inspired by electroluminescent technology which lights up 22 different sectors of the car. Volkswagen disclosed some technical details before the model’s final reveal during the second quarter of 2023. Initially, the ID.7 will have a 77kWh battery pack and a claimed 700-km range. The interior will feature a 15-inch touchscreen infotainment system, an AR-based HUD and a smart HVAC system that can automatically modify the cabin temperature when the key fob is close. Volkswagen expects its new model will compete with Hyundai’s Ioniq 6 and Tesla’s Model 3.

VW ID.7 (Custom)

5. LG, Magna form second JV for ‘executable’ autonomous driving, infotainment solutions

Two of the biggest tech companies LG and Magna have again joined hands to develop solutions for automated driving by leveraging their areas of expertise. LG and Magna already have a JV that manufactures e-powertrain and other hardware like inverters, motors and onboard chargers for EVs. The new JV will explore the ADAS and AV market to develop “executable” automated driving and infotainment solutions to enhance customer experience by addressing the toughest challenges. LG’s vehicle component arm has been eyeing new openings in the automotive market and believes the increased connectivity of cars of the future presents new opportunities.

LG and Magna Partnership (Custom)

6. Harman aims to make driving assistance more intuitive, safer

Harman is all set to deliver enhanced in-cabin safety and awareness through its AR-based HUD hardware and AR-based software products. Harman has been a trusted name for vehicle audio for decades but now as the automotive industry makes a transition towards software-based experiences, the company has developed its own technology that enhances the drivers’ experience by bridging the gap between physical and digital worlds in a non-intrusive manner through its AR-based HUDs. Harman’s Ready Vision uses ML-based 3D object detection and computer vision to deliver collision warnings, lane departure, low-speed zone notification, blind spot warnings and lane change assist with high precision without breaking the driver’s concentration. Harman claims Ready Vision works with precision even in the most unfamiliar driving scenarios, making driving safer.

Harman Ready Vision (Custom)

7. BlackBerry has a busy CES with launches, partnerships

BlackBerry’s IVY software platform, developed in collaboration with Amazon, won its first design contract with PATEO for the all-electric VOYAH H97 model’s digital cockpit. BlackBerry also launched QNX Accelerate, which supports the QNX RTOS and QNX OS for safety in the AWS marketplace. Leading tier-1 suppliers like Continental and Marelli are already testing it to create automotive metaverse environments for software-defined vehicles. BlackBerry is partnering with Elektrobit to develop automotive safety solutions using the Rust programming language. It has also formed partnerships with Texas Instruments for embedded software development and with Garmin for improving the in-car experience. These partnerships show that BlackBerry is attempting to regain market presence through its infotainment, security and OS products.

Blackberry_ partnerships (Custom)

8. Innoviz launches new LiDAR, forms multiple partnerships

Innoviz, a leading player in solid-state LiDAR sensors and perception software, unveiled the Innoviz360, a cost-effective and high-performance LiDAR that will support a range of non-automotive applications such as smart cities, logistics, maritime, heavy machinery, and construction, in addition to Level 4-5 (L4 and L5) autonomy applications. Loxo, a zero-emission autonomous vehicle provider for last-mile delivery, has partnered with Innoviz to use the InnovisOne LiDAR. Deep-tech company EXways, which works in 3D LiDAR processing, has also partnered with Innoviz to leverage the technology for multiple applications.

Innoviz has previously formed partnerships with major automakers such as BMW and Volkswagen, as well as tier-1 supplier Magna. At CES, Innoviz also showcased the InnovizTwo LiDAR, which it claims offers a 30x performance improvement over the InnovizOne and a 70% cost reduction. With the growing adoption of autonomous vehicles, LiDAR technology is expected to be high in demand as major auto OEMs including Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, BMW, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Volvo plan to use it.

Innoviz_L4&L5 Auto appl. (Custom)

9. NVIDIA introduces in-car cloud gaming experience

NVIDIA is partnering with Hyundai Motor, BYD and Polestar to offer a cloud gaming experience through its NVIDIA GeForce NOW service for cars. GeForce users will be able to access over 1,000 paid and free games through this service. While video games are not new in cars, the addition of GeForce will provide a more PC-like gaming experience. This will also drive the trend of cellular connectivity in the passenger vehicle market, as cloud gaming will require embedded 4G or 5G connectivity.

Nvidia_CloudGaming (Custom)

10. Google launches HD maps, partners with Volvo, Polestar

Google announced that it would make HD maps available for Level 2+ autonomous vehicles. The Volvo EX90 and Polestar 3 will use Google’s HD maps service in addition to Google’s Android Auto solution. While Google is gaining some traction in the automotive sector through its Android Auto offerings, it will face strong competition from existing players like HERE and TomTom whose offerings in HD maps and other related services are helping them maintain leadership in the location platform market. To compete with these leading players and local players like Amap, Navinfo, Naver, MapmyIndia and Zenrin, Google is seeking to enhance the user experience in this segment.

Google HD Maps_Volvo (Custom)

 

Related Posts:

LiDAR Now High on Automotive Industry Radar

LiDAR shipments are expected to cross 100 million units by 2030 driven by the automotive industry. The increase in demand for LiDAR will match the increase in demand for ADAS and automated driving in passenger cars and robotaxis. As the number of LiDAR sensors per car increases, reaching a likely maximum of eight units to enable fully autonomous driving, the LiDAR market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 65.9%  to reach $15 billion by 2030.

Level 3 and above automated driving will require a fusion of LiDAR, radar and camera sensors. While a few companies, like Tesla and Wayve, will look to make autonomous driving successful without LiDAR, most car manufacturers, like Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, BMW, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Volvo, have already announced their intention to include LiDAR in their sensor suites for ADAS/AD in upcoming car models.

The biggest threat to LiDAR comes from alternative technologies such as cameras and machine vision. A small number of companies believe that vision-based systems are sufficient to support autonomous driving. This can hamper the growth of LiDAR as the cost of switching to cheaper vision-based solutions is relatively low.

Automotive LiDAR market

The current LiDAR market is crowded as more than 70-80 companies are operating globally, targeting different industries and regions. From 2020 onwards, a total of nine companies – Velodyne, Luminar, Aeva, Ouster, Innoviz, Aeye, Indie Semiconductor, Quanergy and Cepton – have announced listing of stocks through SPAC mergers.

Valeo’s Scala is the world’s first mass-produced LiDAR for cars. In 2021, Mercedes-Benz and Honda introduced Level 3 models S-Class and Legend respectively. Both are equipped with Scala LiDAR. Since 2017, Valeo has shipped more than 170,000 LiDAR units.

According to a Counterpoint study, the value of the automotive LiDAR market reached around $100 million in 2021 as car companies including Toyota, Honda and Chinese companies like Xpeng launched models equipped with LiDAR. Many car OEMs have signed deals with LiDAR suppliers for their upcoming models. Chinese automakers are at the forefront in entering such partnerships.

Future of automotive LiDAR market

According to Counterpoint’s Global Autonomous Passenger Vehicle Forecast, by 2025, 10% of the new cars sold globally will have Level 3 driving capabilities. Developed markets like the US and Europe will have a higher percentage of Level 3 cars and will first see the entry of Level 4 cars (subject to regulatory approval). This suggests LiDAR has a considerable growth opportunity as Level 3 and above cars will reach the mass market in unison by 2030. According to Counterpoint’s Automotive LiDAR Market Trends and Implications, 2022 study, the LiDAR market is expected to grow from $0.1 billion in 2021 to over $15 billion and over 100 million units shipped in 2030.

Conclusion

After the first use of LiDAR in the automotive segment, it took more than five years for LiDAR to make it to a production vehicle and it still has not been successful at achieving broad market penetration. But it is early days and the scope for LiDAR is considerable. We believe that despite the slow initial diffusion, LiDAR adoption will gather pace.

 

For more insights and analyses on the Automotive LiDAR Market, please refer to Automotive LiDAR Market Trend and Implications, 2022, which captures the current and future LiDAR trends, LiDAR cost, and threats to LiDAR in the automotive industry.

 

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COVID-19 Impact Scenarios on China’s Automotive Industry

The COVID-19 outbreak continues to develop fast. There are signs of successful containment in some areas in China, while fears grow accelerating infection rates in other countries – Japan notably. How the situation develops over the coming days, weeks and even months remains uncertain, creating a risky business environment.

Automotive OEMs and Component Supply Chain

Though information is limited, several Chinese vehicle assembly plants had extended their seasonal shutdowns and the automotive component supply chain has been disrupted with some industrial areas in lockdown. A few automotive plants have reported resumption of production since the week of February 10th, while others remain shuttered. Major affected carmakers in the region include Dongfeng, GM and PSA.

Several component suppliers in Wuhan and Hubei provinces have already alerted their OEM customers they are unable to maintain supplies. Problems have already emerged in Korea and will likely spread to other countries and regions as well. Examples of recent disruptions include Hyundai, Kia and SsangYong in Korea having temporarily closed plants, and Nissan has announced a day of production loss at its Kyushu plant in Japan. Jaguar Landrover in the UK expects parts shortages to force capacity reductions from the end of February.

The situation is likely to intensify, causing ad hoc interruptions in the supply chain, with each OEM, plant, and model expected to have different levels of exposure, requiring different countermeasures. Evidently, some automakers in China such as FAW, Toyota and Honda, had also earlier undertaken stock reduction actions towards the end of 2019 with the lower projected growth for 2020 and will, therefore, face relatively earlier stock outs than might have otherwise been the case.

Outbreak Scenarios

While the rate of infection seems to have stabilized before reaching an exponential growth phase, there are differing views among virologists whether COVID-19 can be contained or will become a full-blown global pandemic. Counterpoint Research has considered the following optimistic, most likely and pessimistic scenarios:

Optimistic: Epidemic bought under control in Q1

With effective Government interventions initiated, the epidemic situation is expected to be bought under control by end Q1. The government would ease clampdowns progressively between mid- April. We could expect component makers and OEMs working overtime from April to recover the Q1 output loss within Q2. We can also expect industry stakeholders seeking,  and receiving,  favourable government incentives and subsidies in the short term to stimulate production and demand. In this scenario, expect the industry to drop between at 3%.

Most Likely (Base Case):  Epidemic bought within control in Q1

With people back at work following the lunar new year annual holidays, widespread dispersal could continue to surface over March, with the epidemic continuing into Q2. The automotive impact would spread widely outside the Hubei Province, disrupting component supply chains. Ongoing official control efforts and damaged consumer confidence will impact consumer demand, dropping GDP growth to around 5% from an earlier estimated 6%, impacting the vehicle production dropping by 5% from the prior year.

Pessimistic: Epidemic continues into Q2,  possibly even into Q3

In this situation, the automotive impact would spread widely elsewhere in the world, with China being the key supplier to many countries in the region. In addition, the eventually lowered consumer confidence will impact the economy harder, resulting in overall weakened automotive demand.  Should the outbreak, with further mutations possibly, continue beyond H1, the situation could cause an economic meltdown, affecting several industries and service activities. If this were to happen, the decline in vehicle production would be sharper and last longer. In our estimates, the lowered GDP could result in vehicle production dropping by 11% compared to 2019.

Exhibit 1: China Vehicle Production in Various Scenarios

Counterpoint COVID-19 Impact on China Vehicle Production

2020 China PV Production Outlook

At  5% YoY drop as the base case, Counterpoint analysts project the vehicle production outlook will be around 24.4 million units in 2020. The situation, however, remains fluid, and further revisions will be made as more clarity emerges.

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