Global EV Sales Up 32% YoY in Q1 2023 Driven by Price War

  • One in every seven cars sold during Q1 2023 was an EV.
  • Tesla Model Y becomes the best-selling passenger car model globally for the first time ever.
  • EV sales are expected to reach over 14.5 million units by the end of 2023.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – June 7, 2023

Global passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales in Q1 2023 rose 32% YoY, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. One in every seven cars sold during Q1 2023 was an EV. Battery EVs (BEVs) accounted for 73% of all EV sales during the quarter, while plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) made up the rest.

The US surpassed Germany to become the world’s second-largest EV market in Q1 2023 while China remained the leader. In China, EV sales experienced a remarkable 29% YoY growth, despite a 12% decline in overall sales of passenger vehicles in the country. In the US, EV sales soared over 79% YoY during the quarter. The top 10 automotive groups, encompassing 48 automotive brands, dominated the global EV market in Q1 2023, capturing three-fourths of the total global EV sales.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhik Mukherjee said, “Global EV sales were largely driven by China with 56% of total EV sales in Q1 2023 coming from this market. The elimination of the NEV purchase subsidy in China resulted in lower-than-expected EV sales in January 2023. Tesla slashed prices for its models globally in January, following which other automotive brands announced similar cuts for their car models starting in February, which led to an improvement in EV sales. During February and March, almost 40 automakers, including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Volkswagen, BMW, MercedesBenz, Nissan, Honda and Toyota, reduced their vehicle prices by a couple of hundred dollars to tens of thousands of dollars, which eventually stoked a competitive price war in China. Initially, it was thought that the price war would end soon and that auto OEMs would benefit from increased sales. However, as the price war continues to stretch, several automakers in China have reported reduced earnings and even losses.”

Global passenger EV Sales share Q1 2023

The top 10 EV models accounted for 37% of the total passenger EV sales in Q1 2023. Tesla’s Model Y remained the best-selling model globally followed by Tesla’s Model 3 and BYD’s Song. In Q1 2023, Tesla’s Model Y achieved the notable distinction of becoming the best-selling passenger car model worldwide, surpassing even conventional fuel vehicles.

Global passenger EV Sales model rank Q1 2023

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “Although sales of the traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles remained stable in Q1 2023 compared with that in the year-ago period, the significant growth in EV sales indicates a rapid transition from traditional vehicles to EVs.”

“By the end of 2023, global EV sales are expected to surpass 14.5 million units, according to our forecast. With the implementation of the EV tax credit subsidy in the US, EV sales in the country are projected to significantly increase this year. To meet the eligibility criteria for the tax credit, automotive OEMs are moving to partner with battery suppliers and establish battery manufacturing plants across North America. Consequently, the US is poised to surpass the EU in the race to build EV batteries.”

*Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brand/company.

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. Hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q1 2023’ is now available for purchase at

Feel free to reach us at for questions regarding our latest research and insights.


Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Abhik Mukherjee

Soumen Mandal

Neil Shah

 Peter Richardson


 Counterpoint Research

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One in Four Cars Sold in China in 2022 Was an EV With BYD Powering Country’s Outperformance

  • China’s EV sales almost doubled in 2022 with 87% YoY growth.
  • BYD led the market, followed by GM Group, Tesla, Geely Holding and GAC Group.
  • China’s EV sales are expected to exceed 8 million units in 2023.

New Delhi, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Seoul – March 15, 2023

China’s passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales almost doubled in 2022, growing 87% YoY, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. EVs now account for one in four cars sold in China. Interestingly, the share of battery EVs (BEVs) in the country’s total EV sales decreased in 2022, with plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) increasing their share to 24%. China was the second fastest-growing market among the world’s top 10 EV markets in 2022 in terms of sales. Japan was on top with a 119% YoY growth. Nevertheless, China accounted for nearly 59% of the global EV sales volume.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “China’s EV market is the most vibrant globally. More than 94 brands cumulatively offer over 300 models ranging from just $5,000 to over $90,000. Local brands command 81% of the EV market, among which BYD, Wuling, Chery, Changan and GAC are a few of the top players. China also has a wide range of EV start-ups, like Nio, Xpeng, Neta, AITO, IM Motors, Zeeker, Aiways and Livan, which are performing well and are giving strong competition to established foreign brands.”China EV Sales Top 5 EV Players in 2022

Mandal added, “In China, Tesla experienced a nearly 5% YoY drop in its market share due to production halts in April and May 2022 caused by the resurgence of COVID-19. Although production resumed at full capacity in June, Tesla faced challenges such as the availability of a limited product mix, increased costs due to a difficult supply situation, competition from affordable options offered by EV start-ups, and domestic sentiment that hindered its efforts to solidify its position in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, BYD increased its market share by more than 11% YoY in 2022, with six out of the top 10 models in the Chinese market coming from the brand, compared to just three in 2021.”

In 2022, the top 10 EV models accounted for almost 45% of the total EV sales, a 3% decrease from 2021. This suggests that new start-ups are offering strong competition to established players. Further, in Q4 2022, the BYD Song surpassed the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV as the top-selling EV model, ending the latter’s eight-quarter reign in the market.

China EV Sales - Top 10 Models in 2022

Discussing the market outlook, Associate Director Brady Wang said, “We expect EV sales to exceed 8 million units in 2023. In January 2023, BYD raised its EV prices by $250-$900 due to the rising cost of raw materials and phasing out of EV purchase subsidies. Later, in February and following Tesla, BYD announced price reductions. The prices of the 2021 versions of the Han and Qin models were reduced by an average of $2,500. The prices of new BYD models were slashed by $860-$1,150. The phasing out of subsidies and the wealth of EV players can easily lead to a price war as brands fight for market share.”

*Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. Hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q4 2022’ is now available for purchase at

Feel free to reach us at for questions regarding our latest research and insights.


Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

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Abhik Mukherjee

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Brady Wang

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Neil Shah

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Peter Richardson

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Tesla Leads US EV Market, Eclipsing Next 15 Brands Combined

  • EV sales in the US grew by 52% YoY during Q3 2022.
  • Top 10 EV models constituted almost 70% of EV sales.
  • US EV sales are expected to exceed 10 million units annually by 2030.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – January 4, 2023

The US electric vehicle* (EV) sales** grew by almost 52% YoY during Q3 2022 despite macroeconomic headwinds, according to Counterpoint Global Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Battery EVs (BEVs) constituted over 80% of the total US EV sales. BEV sales grew by more than 78% YoY during Q3. Tesla’s Q3 sales eclipsed the next 15 brands combined.

Commenting on market dynamics, Associate Director Hanish Bhatia said, “Overall US passenger vehicle sales will likely suffer due to macroeconomic pressures until at least mid-2023. Higher interest rates are hitting both loan and leasing routes to ownership. However, the affordability of EVs will be revitalized once EV policies and credit subsidies take effect.”

US Top 5 EV Brands' Sales Share Q3 2022_Counterpoint Research
Source: Counterpoint Global Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q3 2022

Market summary

Tesla sales in the US grew by more than 56% YoY during the quarter. Although Tesla has had some headwinds in meeting orders and delivering vehicles, it has remained the undisputed market leader for at least the previous 19 quarters. The Model Y and Model 3 are its most sold models.

Ford sold over 18,000 EV units during Q3, registering almost 132% YoY growth. With the introduction of the electric version of the best-selling F-150, the company has been able to mark its position in the US EV market.

Chevrolet catapulted its EV sales growth rate by 225% YoY to over 14,000 units. The Bolt and Bolt EUV are the only two Chevrolet EV models being offered currently. The Bolt EUV sales volume almost quadrupled from the previous year. The brand is on track to introduce three new EV models – Silverado EV, Equinox EV and Blazer EV.

The top 10 best-selling EV models constituted almost 70% of the country’s EV sales in Q3. Tesla’s Model Y has been the best-selling EV model since the third quarter of 2020.

Top 10 US EV models Counterpoint

Commenting on the market outlook, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack said, “Tax credits are expected to boost EV demand. Moreover, a price reduction is expected as more battery manufacturing firms are being set up across the North American continent. Batteries constitute 40% to 45% of the cost of EVs. The availability of multiple battery suppliers and a decrease in logistics costs for batteries will positively impact the US EV market. EV sales in the US are expected to exceed 10 million units annually by 2030 at a CAGR of 37%, according to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel-cell vehicles.

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q3 2022’ is now available for purchase at

Feel free to reach us at for questions regarding our latest research and insights.


Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Hanish Bhatia


Jeff Fieldhack


 Soumen Mandal


 Moumen Badawi


 Counterpoint Research

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u-blox Makes a Strong Comeback in 2021; Modules Contribute Most of Revenue

u-blox, a global leader in wireless and positioning technologies, has announced its 2021 financial results. The company made a strong rebound after the strong decline in 2020. Revenue reached a record $453.1 million in 2021, an increase of 27.6% from the previous year.

  • u-blox achieved strong growth across all segments in 2021. The automotive segment grew 41% YoY due to higher demand for navigation and infotainment applications, especially for electric vehicles. The industrial and consumer segments grew 24% and 51% from 2020, respectively.
  • In 2021, the revenue from Americas increased 37.6% YoY driven by strong demand for navigation, infotainment and industrial automation solutions after the decline in 2020. The strong recovery in the automotive sector and consumer telematics helped EMEA revenue to increase by 30.1%. APAC revenue increased by only 11.8% as China’s revenue remained flat due to COVID-19 and supply chain shortages. However, strong demand for industrial automation, navigation and automated driving helped Japan and South Korea in the APAC region to register significant growth. Recently, u-blox’s LTE-M modules got certified by KDDI in Japan and LGU+ in South Korea, which also pushed growth.

This year, 81% and 18% of the total revenue came from modules and GNSS chips respectively. u-blox made many design wins for its IoT modules which helped its IoT module business to witness continuous growth.

u-blox 2021 financial performance CounterpointGNSS module market

u-blox is one of the top players in the GNSS module market. The company shipped nearly 25.3 million units of its GNSS module in 2021. The GNSS module revenue is contributing more than half of the total module revenue. u-blox’s GNSS modules are used a lot in automotive applications.

Some GNSS module design wins for u-blox in 2021:

  • Xpeng Motors selected u-blox’s F9 high-precision GNSS technology for smart electric vehicles.

Wi-Fi/BT module market

In 2021, u-blox shipped nearly . Most of the u-blox Wi-Fi/BT modules are used in industrial and healthcare applications.

Some Wi-Fi/BT module design wins for u-blox in 2021:

  • Bluetooth module NINA-B406 used for smart lighting with Douglas Lighting.
  • u-blox’s ANNA-B112 Bluetooth 5 sip used for a headset for chronic pain treatment with EXSURGO.
  • u-blox’s NINA-B306 standalone Bluetooth 5 low-energy module used by (greenTEG) CORE to communicate wirelessly.

 Cellular IoT module market

According to Counterpoint Research, u-blox’s cellular IoT module segment grew 12% YoY to reach $125 million in 2021. u-blox accounted for 2% of the global cellular IoT module market while Quectel, Telit and Thales remained the top three vendors in 2021 in terms of revenue.

The cellular IoT module market remains highly competitive and u-blox has played to its strength while prioritizing GNSS and BT/Wi-Fi module business segments over cellular IoT modules.

u-blox launched 4G Cat 1 module LARA-R6 and 4G Cat 1 bis module LENA-R8 in 2022 to strengthen its cellular IoT module portfolio. With LARA-R6, u-blox wants to target North America, EMEA, APAC, Japan and LATAM markets with applications like telematics, smart meters, point of sales, asset tracking, healthcare and smoke detector. With LENA-R8, it will target EMEA, APAC and LATAM with telematics and asset tracking applications. u-blox is the third player among international (outside China) module players after Sequans and Thales to launch a Cat 1 bis module. We expect these modules to help u-blox regain its share in the cellular IoT module market.

Some cellular IoT module design wins for u-blox in 2021:

  • Modmo, an e-bike sharing company, used u-blox’s 4G cat 1 module LARA-R211 to provide connectivity in its e-bikes.
  • Digital Matter preferred u-blox’s 2G module SARA-G350 for its asset tracking device.

GNSS chip market

u-blox shipped nearly 47 million GNSS chips in 2021, which contributed $82 million to the total revenue. Besides using its GNSS chipset in its module, u-blox also provides it to other GNSS module vendors like Navisys and YIC.

Some GNSS chip design wins for u-blox in 2021:

  • iGPSPORT used the u-blox M10 platform to deliver ultra-long performance for the latest cycling computer.

Market outlook

We expect u-blox revenue to continue to grow more than 20% YoY in 2022 supported by increasing demand from the automotive and navigation segments across all regions. u-blox is on a mission to build its ecosystem with its ‘silicon to cloud’ journey. It wants to use its chipset in its module and connect its module to its cloud platform. u-blox acquired Thingstream, an IoT service platform, in 2020 to provide data and security services to its customers. Further, it took full ownership of Sapcorda, a GNSS augmentation service provider for centimeter-level positioning accuracy, in 2021. These strategic investments are also expected to help u-blox in increasing both product and service revenues, especially in the GNSS segment.

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Top 10 Automotive Announcements at CES 2022

The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) held this year from January 5 to 7 saw attendance from tech companies from various domains such as 5G, IoT, blockchain, automotive, wellness, sports, entertainment, healthcare, smart home, robotics, augmented reality (AR), gaming, devices and manufacturing. The resurgence in COVID-19 cases forced the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) to cut short the event by one day. Moreover, several large companies, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, AMD, Panasonic, Intel, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, General Motors and OnePlus, skipped this in-person event citing rising COVID-19 cases.

At this year’s CES, players in the automotive ecosystem mostly focused on electric vehicles (EVs), connected cars, autonomous mobility, digital cockpit, infotainment, robotics and shared mobility. This trend is in line with the industry shift towards CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared/Services and Electrification).

Here are Counterpoint analysts’ top 10 automotive announcements from this year’s CES:

1. Samsung showcases future of in-vehicle experience

Samsung Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Samsung used CES to showcase its vision for in-vehicle experience. Interestingly, it uses cameras with sensors to analyze the vehicle’s surroundings. Tesla was among the first to use a camera-based autonomous driving system instead of LiDAR. With the expertise and capabilities it acquired with its HARMAN acquisition a few years ago, Samsung is betting big on the automotive sector.

Moreover, AR will help passengers connect with a range of services while driving. For example, managing meetings through virtual calls, finding nearby places and navigating using map information. The focus on in-vehicle experience also helps Samsung leverage its existing relationships with automotive value chain players and capabilities.

2. Google exploring new capabilities with Android Auto

Google Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Google-powered Android Auto users will be able to access third-party integrated apps like Lyft and Kakao Mobility for micro-mobility; access to points apps like MochiMochi, Fuelio and Prezzi Benzina; navigation apps like Sygic and Flitsmeister; charging apps like ChargePoint and PlugShare; and parking apps like SpotHero and ParkWhiz. In addition, Volvo car owners will have access to content platforms like YouTube. The third-party integration will open new business opportunities for Google in the automotive industry.

Google is also bringing Android phone as a car service with BMW. Ultra-wideband (UWB) technology will be supported through Samsung Galaxy and Google Pixel phones. More Android phones will be able to use this technology later.

Google is powering OEMs to integrate the Google Home ecosystem through voice-enabled Google Assistant. Volvo will be the first to bring this feature for supporting remote actions.

3. Hyundai brings ‘Metamobility’

Hyundai Motor Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Hyundai is making a paradigm shift towards the future of mobility through concepts of “Metamobility” and “Mobility of Things”. It has joined hands with Boston Dynamics to build a robotic society where we will be able to freely move between real and virtual worlds. Hyundai envisions robots bridging the gap between real and virtual scenarios such as Metaverse.

4. Volvo to enter self-driving car race

Volvo Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Volvo is rolling out a self-driving system called Ride Pilot for California-based customers. The company is already testing autonomous driving (AD) in Sweden, so we can expect Volvo to launch this system for the European market soon. This product is equipped with Luminar’s Iris LiDAR and AD software from Zenseact. Ride Pilot will be available as an add-on subscription. However, Volvo is yet to decide the cost for this solution. We can expect strong competition between the use of camera and LiDAR in autonomous vehicle (AV) applications.

5. Stellantis teams up with Amazon for next-generation smart cockpit

Stellantis Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Stellantis announced an extensive partnership with Amazon to develop a next-generation STLA Smart Cockpit. Amazon will help Stellantis build cloud solutions and provide training to Stellantis engineers and developers. Like Google, Amazon will also integrate smart home ecosystems with vehicles through an Alexa-enabled voice assistance system. Stellantis has also collaborated with Amazon in the past to provide Amazon Fire TV services to the Jeep Wagoneer 2022 version. Stellantis is trying to increase revenue from software services and Amazon will help Stellantis focus on the infotainment market. The rivalry between Google and Amazon will expand from the smart speaker market to the automotive infotainment market in the future.

6. Sony to form a new entity to focus on EV business

Sony Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Sony’s business diversification plan has pushed it to explore the EV domain. At CES 2022, it made several announcements and also showcased an SUV-type EV prototype (VISION-S 02). Sony will use its expertise in entertainment systems to provide a better experience in the mobility entertainment space. Sony had previously shown a VISION-S prototype at CES 2020, but this time it is strengthening its efforts toward e-mobility by forming a new entity named Sony Mobility Inc. Prior to Sony, other big smartphone ecosystem players such as Vingroup, Foxconn and Xiaomi had also announced their entry into the EV space.

7. Mobileye cracks new deals with Volkswagen, Ford, Geely

Mobileye Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Intel’s autonomous driving unit Mobileye has entered a partnership with Volkswagen to use its mapping data in upcoming models. Mobileye will also help Ford enhance future variations in its BlueCruise driver assistance system. Geely-owned EV brand Zeekr also plans to use Mobileye’s expertise in mapping and sensing solutions in a level-4 AV, which is expected to debut in China by 2024.

By the end of 2021, cumulative EyeQ chip shipments had crossed the 100-million mark. Mobileye is different from others as it provides both hardware and software products in the AD space.

8. Qualcomm partners with Renault, Volvo, Honda for digital transformation

Qualcomm Announcements at CES Counterpoint

Renault has tied up with Qualcomm to bring digital transformation through Snapdragon Digital Chassis. Volvo will also take help from Qualcomm under the digital chassis program to enhance its infotainment systems for cars under the Volvo and Polestar brands. Honda too will use a similar type of solution that may become available in the US during the second half of 2022. Qualcomm is slowly transitioning itself from “mobile” to “mobility” player.

For a detailed analysis of Qualcomm’s automotive announcements, visit the following blog:

Qualcomm in Driver’s Seat to Shape the Future of Mobility

9. VinFast to launch level 2+ cars with ZF’s help

VinFast Announcements at CES Counterpoint

VinFast, an automotive start-up from Vingroup, is planning to launch autonomous driving and level 2+ functions from the middle of 2022. ZF will supply radars, cameras, LiDAR sensors and central control units for this project. Initially, VinFast is targeting North America, China and Europe for its all-electric premium VFe35 and VFe36 models. VinFast aims to bring luxury features at affordable prices, which may redefine the automotive industry going forward.

10. GM makes series of announcements from EVs to AVs

General Motors Announcements at CES Counterpoint

General Motors made headlines with the announcement of the Chevrolet Silverado EV pickup truck, which is expected to take on Tesla’s Cybertruck, Ford Motor’s F-150 and Rivian’s R1T.

GM subsidiary BrightDrop, which debuted a year ago, has established clients including Walmart and FedEx.

GM CEO Mary Bara also announced to launch the Equinox EV for around $30,000 by 2023. If Tesla fails to launch a $25,000 vehicle by 2023, it will see strong competition from GM, especially in North America.

GM is also planning to take on Tesla’s FSD with its Ultra Cruise, which is currently under development. GM is working with Qualcomm to help develop its AV business.

These announcements indicate that GM is now serious about the EV and AV segment. Moreover, it wants to regain its No. 1 position in the US passenger and light commercial vehicle market.

COVID-19 Impact Scenarios on China’s Automotive Industry

The COVID-19 outbreak continues to develop fast. There are signs of successful containment in some areas in China, while fears grow accelerating infection rates in other countries – Japan notably. How the situation develops over the coming days, weeks and even months remains uncertain, creating a risky business environment.

Automotive OEMs and Component Supply Chain

Though information is limited, several Chinese vehicle assembly plants had extended their seasonal shutdowns and the automotive component supply chain has been disrupted with some industrial areas in lockdown. A few automotive plants have reported resumption of production since the week of February 10th, while others remain shuttered. Major affected carmakers in the region include Dongfeng, GM and PSA.

Several component suppliers in Wuhan and Hubei provinces have already alerted their OEM customers they are unable to maintain supplies. Problems have already emerged in Korea and will likely spread to other countries and regions as well. Examples of recent disruptions include Hyundai, Kia and SsangYong in Korea having temporarily closed plants, and Nissan has announced a day of production loss at its Kyushu plant in Japan. Jaguar Landrover in the UK expects parts shortages to force capacity reductions from the end of February.

The situation is likely to intensify, causing ad hoc interruptions in the supply chain, with each OEM, plant, and model expected to have different levels of exposure, requiring different countermeasures. Evidently, some automakers in China such as FAW, Toyota and Honda, had also earlier undertaken stock reduction actions towards the end of 2019 with the lower projected growth for 2020 and will, therefore, face relatively earlier stock outs than might have otherwise been the case.

Outbreak Scenarios

While the rate of infection seems to have stabilized before reaching an exponential growth phase, there are differing views among virologists whether COVID-19 can be contained or will become a full-blown global pandemic. Counterpoint Research has considered the following optimistic, most likely and pessimistic scenarios:

Optimistic: Epidemic bought under control in Q1

With effective Government interventions initiated, the epidemic situation is expected to be bought under control by end Q1. The government would ease clampdowns progressively between mid- April. We could expect component makers and OEMs working overtime from April to recover the Q1 output loss within Q2. We can also expect industry stakeholders seeking,  and receiving,  favourable government incentives and subsidies in the short term to stimulate production and demand. In this scenario, expect the industry to drop between at 3%.

Most Likely (Base Case):  Epidemic bought within control in Q1

With people back at work following the lunar new year annual holidays, widespread dispersal could continue to surface over March, with the epidemic continuing into Q2. The automotive impact would spread widely outside the Hubei Province, disrupting component supply chains. Ongoing official control efforts and damaged consumer confidence will impact consumer demand, dropping GDP growth to around 5% from an earlier estimated 6%, impacting the vehicle production dropping by 5% from the prior year.

Pessimistic: Epidemic continues into Q2,  possibly even into Q3

In this situation, the automotive impact would spread widely elsewhere in the world, with China being the key supplier to many countries in the region. In addition, the eventually lowered consumer confidence will impact the economy harder, resulting in overall weakened automotive demand.  Should the outbreak, with further mutations possibly, continue beyond H1, the situation could cause an economic meltdown, affecting several industries and service activities. If this were to happen, the decline in vehicle production would be sharper and last longer. In our estimates, the lowered GDP could result in vehicle production dropping by 11% compared to 2019.

Exhibit 1: China Vehicle Production in Various Scenarios

Counterpoint COVID-19 Impact on China Vehicle Production

2020 China PV Production Outlook

At  5% YoY drop as the base case, Counterpoint analysts project the vehicle production outlook will be around 24.4 million units in 2020. The situation, however, remains fluid, and further revisions will be made as more clarity emerges.

Top 10 Automotive Announcements in CES 2020

The Consumer Electronics Show (CES), one of the largest global platforms to showcase consumer electronics technologies and innovation, was held in Las Vegas, USA, this year from 6th to 10th January.

Over the past few years, CES has been incorporating more and more automotive players and technologies. With the growing emergence of connected vehicles with cellular communication and the emergence of 5G playing an increasing role for vehicles to share information to support and safeguard automotive applications, the overlap of consumer electronics and automotive industries is inevitable.

Counterpoint analysts’ top 10 automotive-related announcements from this year’s CES:

1. Sony unveiled its concept Vision-S electric car

In association with NVIDIA, HERE, Continental, BlackBerry, Gentex, Magna, Electrobit, ZF and Benteler, Sony showcased its first-ever concept car, the Vision-S. The 268 bhp car has 33 embedded safety sensors. BlackBerry QNX is providing dashboard software for this concept electric car. While there were no immediate plans to mass-produce the Vision-S, it was used to demonstrate Sony’s capabilities and vision in sensors, AI, infotainment and user interfaces for automotive applications. With the increased digitalization of the automotive industry, electronics players like Sony are going beyond infotainment to focus on growth opportunities in multiple lucrative sectors, such as ADAS components.

2. Uber and Hyundai team up to offer flying car services from 2023

Uber and Hyundai have partnered to provide electric flying car services, from 2023. The flying car will be able to travel at 180 mph with a range of up to 60 miles. Counterpoint believes that commercial flying car services are at least a decade away from reality. While exciting considerable interest, any prospect of commercial reality will be hampered by massive regulatory hurdles.

3. LG in partnership with Microsoft to develop autonomous driving and infotainment systems

LG has formed a strategic partnership with Microsoft to combine its in-vehicle infotainment platform – webOS Auto, with the cloud-based Microsoft Connected Vehicle Platform (MCVP) to offer improved connected services, including audio and streaming. Both companies have also partnered in developing autonomous driving software. LG is looking to leverage the AI expertise of Microsoft to improve its ADAS, Driver-Status Monitoring Camera (DSM) and Multi-Purpose Front Camera products.

4. Verizon collaborating with HERE to provide better-connected vehicle services

Verizon and HERE have signed a multi-year partnership to develop new connected services. Verizon will provide its 5G Ultra Wideband network and multi-access edge compute (MEC) platform and HERE will allow Verizon access to its location data, Software Development Kits (SDKs), and Application Programming Interface. This collaboration of Verizon and HERE will help Verizon improve its 3D positioning algorithms with 5G Ultra-Wideband and 5G Edge. HERE will also be able to upgrade its location ecosystem in real-time wherever the higher bandwidth from Verizon is available. This partnership is an attempt to establish enhanced integrated connected vehicle platforms, offering lower latency and more precise location systems.

5. Qualcomm launches a new autonomous driving platform

Qualcomm has announced it’s entering the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) arena with the unveiling of its AV platform, Snapdragon Ride, focused on advance Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (C-V2X) communication. Though a late entrant in the AV space, Qualcomm with its vast experience in smartphone technology, will prove to be a significant partner to automakers. General Motor (GM) has already announced installing Snapdragon Ride in its cars. Production versions of Snapdragon Ride fitted cars will start from 2023. This platform from Qualcomm is expected to give strong competition to current autonomous driving players NVIDIA, Intel, and Microsoft.

6. Toyota plans to build a smart city from 2021

Toyota has announced plans to build ‘Woven City’, a 71 hectares smart city at Mount Fuji, 60 miles from Tokyo, by 2021. Toyota is among the first large global automakers to enter into the smart city business race. Toyota will use this city to test emerging automotive technologies such as fuel cells and autonomous driving. Toyota will, possibly, also explore its proposed electric flying car service, fulfilling its aspiration to be the pioneer in the category.

7. Intel demonstrates autonomous vehicles equipped only with cameras, no other sensors

Intel’s subsidiary, Mobileye, showed an AV equipped with 12 cameras but no other sensors. The EyeQ5 chip creates a 3D model, by processing 2D images, to sense the environment.  Using full-stack camera systems to improve computer vision, Intel is aiming to reduce the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of its sensing system leading to violation of its safety standards to 10-4 and ultimately to 10-7 – equivalent to driving for 10 million hours without a safety-critical error. By using camera-based sensors, while foregoing LiDAR and radar, Mobileye believes it can reduce the cost of autonomous vehicle development as well as potentially speed up development. However, it will take considerable testing to prove such alternate surround vision systems can comply with regulatory and public safety authorities/standards – this, therefore, is another focus area.

8. Quectel announced 5G automotive module

Quectel announced developing 5G automotive modules AG550Q – a 5G, Sub-6GHz module, AG215S – an automotive Extensible Authentication Protocol (EAP) module dedicated to C-V2X, and AF50T- a Wi-Fi module. An early entry in 5G module production can give Quectel an advantage over other module players. Quectel’s partnership with Qualcomm will also help it offer advanced connectivity modules to OEMs and tier 1 suppliers.

9. Amazon integrating new services in Alexa Auto

Looking to further its partnership with automakers, Amazon announced adding new features like Amazon Pay, and Fire TV in Alexa Auto. BMW and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will be among the first automakers to offer Fire TV integrated with Alexa Auto in their vehicles. The automotive voice assistant feature is currently dominated by embedded iOS CarPlay and Android Auto platforms. Amazon is working with system integrators and software providers like Bosch, HERE, MELCO, Telenav and TomTom for a seamless embedded voice-assistant based in-vehicle navigation experience. Lamborghini and Rivian have also announced integrating Alexa Auto in their forthcoming vehicles.

10. Google showcased improved Android Auto with integrated Google Assistant

Google announced the integration of Google Assistant to its existing Android Auto product portfolio. Google is partnering with Volvo and BMW to market these new features. Information from Android Auto can be projected to a head-up display (HUD) with this new version of Android Auto. Google’s Android Auto will face strong competition from Apple CarPlay and Amazon Alexa as each looks to exert influence on the automotive cockpit.

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