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EV Sales in US up 54.5% YoY in 2022; Tesla Market Share at 50.5%

BEVs accounted for 80% of EV sales in the US in 2022.
In 2022, Tesla captured over 50% of the US EV market.
EV sales are expected to exceed 1.9 million units in 2023.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – April 4, 2023

Passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales** in the US grew 54.5% YoY in 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Battery EV (BEV) sales grew by almost 70% YoY to account for more than 80% of all EV sales in 2022. Tesla remained the market leader in 2022 with more than 50% market share. Tesla sold more cars than the other 17 automotive groups combined.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhik Mukherjee said, “Although overall passenger vehicle sales in the US declined in 2022, EV sales increased to represent 7% of all US passenger vehicle sales. Tesla is dominating the US EV market while other automotive giants like Ford, General Motors, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Hyundai are struggling to provide strong competition. But still, we are seeing new players like Lucid Motors, Karma, Fisker and Vinfast entering the US EV space, underlining the market’s potential. Moreover, with the recent price cuts by Tesla and all versions of Tesla’s Model Y becoming eligible for the EV tax credit subsidy, it is expected that Tesla will take an even higher market share.”

The top 10 best-selling EV models accounted for 69% of total EV sales in the US. All four Tesla models were present in the top-10 bestseller list for 2022. Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 and Kia’s EV6 made a significant impact, entering the list within a year of their US launch.

Discussing the market outlook, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack said, “High interest rates due to macroeconomic pressures during 2022 negatively affected vehicle sales in the US. In 2023, EV sales are expected to reach over 1.9 million units but only if economic headwinds do not severely impact the market, like in 2022. With automotive OEMs and battery manufacturers joining hands to set up battery manufacturing plants across the US, the battery supply chain is expected to become smoother and component costs will moderate, making the potential US EV market greater than 10 million per year by 2030.”

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Abhik Mukherjee

Abhilash Gupta

Soumen Mandal

Jeff Fieldhack

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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Electric Vehicles Gain Ground in Southeast Asia; Thailand Dominates Volumes

Thailand led the region’s passenger EV sales in 2022 with a 58% share.
Nearly two in three EVs sold in 2022 were BEVs.
Wuling’s newest model Air EV was the region’s bestseller.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – March 31, 2023

Passenger electric vehicle (EV*) sales** in Southeast Asia (SEA^#) accounted for just under 2% of the region’s total passenger vehicle sales in 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Thailand was the most advanced, accounting for 58% of the region’s EV sales, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam. Thailand’s government has been pushing EV sales through demand-side incentives and corporate income tax incentives for EV manufacturers.

Wuling’s Air EV was the best-selling model across the region in 2022, being one of the most affordable EV options. In terms of automotive groups, Vingroup led the SEA EV sales, closely followed by Wuling (part of SAIC-GM-Wuling group) and Volvo (Geely Holdings subsidiary). Battery EVs (BEVs) represented 64.6% of the total EV sales while plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) constituted the rest.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhilash Gupta said, “Passenger EV demand is increasing gradually across the SEA region but sales are tiny compared to global EV sales, constituting just 0.5% of the global total for 2022. However, as geopolitical tensions are rising between China and the West, SEA is becoming an attractive option for Chinese auto manufacturers looking to expand abroad. Therefore, we can expect to see more production plants in SEA in the longer term, which will help boost EV sales. Thailand has the largest auto manufacturing sector in SEA. It is aiming to leverage its manufacturing expertise to attract automakers to produce and sell EVs there. Indonesia and Vietnam have the advantage of mineral resources, which gives them an edge over others in the region. The SEA countries have set lofty EV targets and have introduced many incentives to promote EV adoption among consumers and to attract EV manufacturers to set up bases.”

Source: Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q4 2022

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “Although EVs are currently a niche market in SEA, we do expect their sales to double in 2023. However, it will be difficult for the SEA countries to achieve their EV targets and increase the share of renewables in the electricity grid at the same time.

SEA countries have the opportunity to display their manufacturing capabilities and grow, given the interest of many international auto manufacturers to invest in the region. Those that enter the market early will have an edge, allowing them to secure a substantial share of the market. The SEA region could adopt the approaches taken by China and Europe, which provide incentives based on CO₂ emission levels. Doing so would encourage both consumers and manufacturers to shift towards more environment-friendly vehicles.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e., deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

^#SEA includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q4 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Abhilash Gupta

Soumen Mandal

Brady Wang

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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Tesla Leads US EV Market, Eclipsing Next 15 Brands Combined

EV sales in the US grew by 52% YoY during Q3 2022.
Top 10 EV models constituted almost 70% of EV sales.
US EV sales are expected to exceed 10 million units annually by 2030.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – January 4, 2023

The US electric vehicle* (EV) sales** grew by almost 52% YoY during Q3 2022 despite macroeconomic headwinds, according to Counterpoint Global Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Battery EVs (BEVs) constituted over 80% of the total US EV sales. BEV sales grew by more than 78% YoY during Q3. Tesla’s Q3 sales eclipsed the next 15 brands combined.

Commenting on market dynamics, Associate Director Hanish Bhatia said, “Overall US passenger vehicle sales will likely suffer due to macroeconomic pressures until at least mid-2023. Higher interest rates are hitting both loan and leasing routes to ownership. However, the affordability of EVs will be revitalized once EV policies and credit subsidies take effect.”

Source: Counterpoint Global Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q3 2022

Market summary

Tesla sales in the US grew by more than 56% YoY during the quarter. Although Tesla has had some headwinds in meeting orders and delivering vehicles, it has remained the undisputed market leader for at least the previous 19 quarters. The Model Y and Model 3 are its most sold models.

Ford sold over 18,000 EV units during Q3, registering almost 132% YoY growth. With the introduction of the electric version of the best-selling F-150, the company has been able to mark its position in the US EV market.

Chevrolet catapulted its EV sales growth rate by 225% YoY to over 14,000 units. The Bolt and Bolt EUV are the only two Chevrolet EV models being offered currently. The Bolt EUV sales volume almost quadrupled from the previous year. The brand is on track to introduce three new EV models – Silverado EV, Equinox EV and Blazer EV.

The top 10 best-selling EV models constituted almost 70% of the country’s EV sales in Q3. Tesla’s Model Y has been the best-selling EV model since the third quarter of 2020.

Commenting on the market outlook, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack said, “Tax credits are expected to boost EV demand. Moreover, a price reduction is expected as more battery manufacturing firms are being set up across the North American continent. Batteries constitute 40% to 45% of the cost of EVs. The availability of multiple battery suppliers and a decrease in logistics costs for batteries will positively impact the US EV market. EV sales in the US are expected to exceed 10 million units annually by 2030 at a CAGR of 37%, according to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel-cell vehicles.

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q3 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Hanish Bhatia

Jeff Fieldhack

Soumen Mandal

Moumen Badawi

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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Thailand Leads Southeast Asia EV Market With 60% Share

Southeast Asia’s electric vehicle sales grew 35% YoY in Q3 2022.
The top five brands accounted for almost 67% of the region’s passenger EV sales.
The sales are expected to cross 3.5 million units by 2030 at a CAGR of 124%.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – December 21, 2022

Passenger electric vehicle (EV*) sales** in Southeast Asia (SEA)^# grew 35% YoY in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Thailand registered the highest EV sales volume in the region, capturing almost 60% share, followed by Indonesia and Singapore. Battery EVs (BEVs) constituted 61% of the sales and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) the rest. The top five brands accounted for almost 67% of the EV sales in SEA. Wuling emerged as the best-selling EV brand followed by Volvo and BMW.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhilash Gupta said, “Although the passenger EV sales in SEA are small compared to other regions, the demand is gradually increasing. Currently, EV sales are just a tad over 2% of total passenger vehicle sales in the region. Many OEMs are setting up or are planning to set up manufacturing plants across the region due to favorable policies, subsidies and incentives by major SEA countries like Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia.”

Market summary

Thailand’s EV market has grown tremendously this year, making it SEA’s undisputed EV leader. The country grabbed almost 60% of EV sales in SEA in Q3 2022. It aims to achieve 100% domestic sales from BEVs by 2035. Subsidies, excise duty waivers and import tax reductions have put Thailand on the right path in its EV journey.

Indonesia took 25% share in the SEA passenger EV market sales for Q3 2022. Also, during Q3, the country registered its highest EV sales volume till now. The Wuling Air EV model launched during this quarter became an instant hit here and was the best-selling EV model. Recently, many companies have announced plans for setting up EV battery production units in Indonesia, which is in line with the country’s target to build 140 GWh of battery capacity by 2030. Indonesia is a major player in vehicle production in SEA.

Singapore, another growing EV market, captured almost 12% share of the SEA EV sales. It has a target to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030 and has introduced various incentives, policies and schemes to increase EV adoption. Alongside, it is also trying to develop a well-connected network of 60,000 charging points by the end of this decade.

Malaysia only had a 3% share in the SEA EV market in Q3 2022. Nonetheless, the Malaysian government is supporting the adoption of EVs and has exempted EVs from road, import, excise and sales taxes. Further push to develop charging infrastructure will boost EV sales.

Vietnam announced zero registration fee for EVs in March 2022. Vinfast, the major EV brand, recently discontinued its ICE models to focus on EVs. The future looks promising for the EV market to flourish in Vietnam.

Commenting on the market outlook, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The SEA region’s automotive sector is mainly occupied by Japanese OEMs. However, with the shift in focus to EVs, they are facing stiff competition from the Chinese, South Korean and few local players. Affordability remains a major bottleneck for the region’s EV growth. But the scenario is changing with the availability of some cheaper EV options by Wuling, BYD, GWM and SAIC. Unlike developed EV markets such as the US and Europe, low-priced EV options are gaining popularity in emerging markets like Thailand and Indonesia. According to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast, the SEA EV market is expected to grow at a fast pace and by the end of this decade EV sales are expected to cross the 3.5-million mark at a CAGR of 124%.”

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. This study does not include hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).

**Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brands/companies.

^#SEA here includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q3 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Abhilash Gupta

Soumen Mandal

Brady Wang

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Posts:

European EV Market Grew 16% in Q2 2022 led by Mercedes

Mercedes-Benz overtook Volkswagen to become the top-selling EV brand in Europe.
Germany leads the European market with 28% market share.
The top 10 EV models accounted for almost one-fourth of EV sales in Q2 2022.

New Delhi, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Seoul – October 10, 2022

Europe’s passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales* increased 16% YoY in Q2 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 55% of total EV sales during the quarter. Germany, with a 28% share, remained the European EV market leader, followed by France with 16% and the UK with 14%. Among other European nations, Spain and the Netherlands were the fastest growing EV markets, nearly doubling their sales on a YoY basis. However, Norway had the highest EV sales penetration (85%) among European countries and also globally.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Vice President of Research Peter Richardson said, “Europe’s automotive market has been hit by a series of events. The supply chain disruption due to the Russia-Ukraine war had a serious negative impact. The supply crunch of vehicle wiring harnesses and other important components, together with a lack of critical raw materials, forced automakers across Europe, especially in Germany and the UK, to cut vehicle production for several weeks. Moreover, to show solidarity with Ukraine, most automakers halted their businesses in Russia, further hurting sales performance during Q2. Additionally, rising inflation and currency devaluations have pushed raw material costs higher.”

Market Summary

The top five brands accounted for only 36% of the total EV sales across Europe in Q2 2022. Europe is one of the most competitive EV markets where OEMs must fight hard for relatively small market shares. This ensures that most OEMs have similar market shares with a difference of only a few points.

Mercedes-Benz
Leading the pack, Mercedes-Benz accounted for around 9.2% of the total EV sales across Europe during the quarter. Last year, the company announced it would stop the development of internal combustion engines and strengthen its focus on electrification instead. Although the company had the highest number of EV sales across Europe, BEV sales accounted for only 28% of its total EV sales. The company’s present portfolio is strong. Its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models include the GLC-Class, GLE-Class and C-Class, while its top-selling BEV models are the EQA, EQB, and EQE.

BMW
BMW, an early adopter of electrification, was the second-best selling EV brand in Europe in Q2 2022. BMW had a 9.1% share of the EV market in Europe during the period. The PHEV segment accounted for 71% of the company’s total EV sales. The BMW X series and the BMW 3 series cars dominated the PHEV segment, while the company’s i-Series models, namely the iX, i4 and i3, were the flagbearers of its BEV segment.

Volkswagen
Among European OEMs, Volkswagen was hurt the most from the Russia-Ukraine war. Supply chain disruptions and component shortages reduced the company’s sales by 44% YoY during Q2 2022. Volkswagen, one of the largest auto OEMs, was able to secure just 6.2% of Europe EV sales during the quarter. The company is betting on its ID series cars to dominate the EV market. Presently, 64% of EVs sold by Volkswagen are from the ID series alone.

Among other brands, Tesla’s performance fell short of expectations even though its Berlin Gigafactory started production in March 2022. Tesla sales in Europe fell 51% YoY during Q2 2022 mainly due to production halts at its China operations in April and May, stemming from supply issues and restrictions related to the pandemic. A major proportion of Tesla cars sold in Europe is imported from China.

Source: Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker: Q1 2018 – Q2 2022

Commenting on the EV ecosystem development, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “Europe is one of the more mature EV markets. EV sales in Europe have gained traction, thus incentives and subsidies related to EV sales have reduced to almost nil in most European nations. Presently, Europe is looking to strengthen its charging infrastructure and battery recycling ecosystem. A strong charging infrastructure network is likely to boost EV penetration. Among European nations, the Netherlands has the highest density of EV charging stations. Alongside governments, private players, such as Webasto, Free2Move, EVBox, Shell and BP, are teaming up with OEMs to set up a network of charging stations across Europe.”

Shah added, “Apart from developing a strong network of charging stations, the rising demand for EVs is leading to the rise of battery recycling plants. Battery recycling plants are necessary to control e-waste and to recycle valuable metals that can be used in new batteries.”

Source: Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker: Q1 2018 – Q2 2022

The top 10 EV models in Europe contributed to around 23% of the EV market in Q2 2022. Bestsellers were the Fiat 500, followed by the Tesla Model Y and Peugeot 208. In the year-ago quarter, none of these EVs were among the top five. The change in the market was due to multiple production shutdowns and delays in shipments faced by OEMs. In 2021, the top-selling EV models were the Renault ZOE, Volkswagen ID.4 and Skoda Enyaq iV. In Q2 2022, eight out of the top 10 EV models sold in Europe were BEVs.

Commenting on the market outlook, Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “EV sales are expected to exceed 2.5 million units by the end of 2022, according to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast. The market is expected to be slow due to component shortages, economic turmoil and geopolitical tensions. Still, one in every five cars sold in Europe will likely be an EV by the end of this year. In 2021, EV sales in Europe accounted for 15% of total passenger vehicle sales.”

*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands/companies.

*Under electric vehicles (EVs), we are considering only battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q2 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

Neil Shah

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Reports:

China Cloud on Tesla’s Q2 2022 Numbers; Fundamentals Remain Strong

Tesla sold more than 254,000 vehicles in Q2 2022, an increase of 27% YoY, which was below general expectations.
This was the first time since the COVID-19-hit 2020 that the automaker experienced a sequential decline in sales.

After achieving phenomenal growth in Q1 2022, Tesla’s global sales during Q2 2022 grew by just 27% YoY to over 254,000 units, falling short of expectations. In QoQ terms, the sales fell 18%. Business during Q2 2022 was affected by COIVD-19-related shutdowns in China. Production units in and around Shanghai were closed temporarily due to strict lockdown measures. As a result, Tesla sold just 89,000 cars across China during Q2 2022. Cumulative sales in China during April and May fell by more than 66% YoY. The situation improved only after the production returned to full capacity in June.

It was expected that the Berlin Gigafactory would boost Tesla’s sales in Europe after becoming operational in March 2022. But the production was lower than expected. A few rumored reasons for the low production are litigation with the German government and a shortage of human resources. The Berlin factory is currently focusing on the production and deliveries of the Model Y across Europe.

Tesla bets on in-house battery cell manufacturing

Tesla delivered its first batch of cars equipped with the in-house 4680 battery cells and structural battery packs during this quarter. These cells use a little amount of lithium. With lithium prices soaring worldwide, 4680 cells will help lower the vehicle manufacturing cost. The cells will power the Model Ys coming out of the Berlin Gigafactory. However, Tesla will shut the Berlin Gigafactory for a couple of weeks during autumn to upgrade the production system of 4680 cells.

Other businesses see 33% YoY growth

Although Tesla’s vehicle sales in Q2 2022 failed to meet expectations, its other businesses like energy deployment and storage, charging and other services grew more than its vehicle segment. Energy deployment, energy storage, charging and other services grew by 33% YoY. Tesla deployed 106 MW of solar panels and 1.13 GWh of energy storage during Q2 2022. It installed 247 new superchargers worldwide, bringing its global supercharger number to 3,971 units with more than 36,000 connectors.

Tesla converts 75% of its Bitcoins to fiat currency

During Q2 2022, Tesla also converted 75% of its Bitcoins to fiat currency. This was done to have a better cash position against the backdrop of COIVD-19-related uncertainties. This conversion reduced Tesla’s digital assets to $218 million and added $936 million in cash to Tesla’s balance sheet.

Source: Tesla Q2 2022 Financials and Counterpoint Analysis

Q2 2022 Financial Results

During Q2 2022, Tesla sold more than 254,000 vehicles at 27% YoY growth. The Model 3 and Model Y comprised more than 93% of these sales.
Revenue from vehicle sales stood at $14.6 billion. Total revenue grew by almost 42% YoY, with the COVID-19 impact on China reducing the QoQ number by about 10%. Revenue generated from automotive credit also declined slightly compared to Q2 2021.
The company’s other services, like energy storage, charging and insurance, contributed to 14% of its total revenue. Revenue from insurance and vehicle services saw a 54.2% YoY growth, while the energy storage and charging segment grew by just 8% YoY. The energy storage business was expected to perform better but was restricted due to semiconductor-related supply issues.
Tesla’s gross profit during Q2 2022 reached $4.2 billion and stood at 25%. Though the shutdown in China adversely affected the business, increase in US deliveries along with the higher average vehicle price helped Tesla earn 47% more profit YoY.
R&D costs grew 16% YoY during Q2 2022. Tesla is trying to achieve complete autonomy by 2024 by perfecting Full-Self Driving (FSD) software. But the resignation of Andrej Karpathy, the director of artificial intelligence and autopilot system at Tesla, in mid-July is likely to stall the progress of this project, which is expected to get delayed by a year.

Source: Tesla Q2 2022 Financials and Counterpoint Analysis

Market Outlook

Despite experiencing a dip during the second quarter of 2022, Tesla’s future outlook seems strong and promising with strong fundamentals. Tesla has secured the supply of LFP batteries for its Shanghai Gigafactory by signing a deal with BYD. Transitioning to LFP batteries and 4680 battery cells will help Tesla reduce vehicle manufacturing costs. Moreover, Tesla expects the Berlin Gigafactory production capacity to cross 100,000 units by the end of 2022. With all these developments, Tesla is expected to cross more than 1.2 million units of vehicle deliveries by the end of 2022.

One in Two Cars Sold Will Have Electric Powertrain by 2030

China will be leading the global EV market, followed by Europe and US.
BEV will have nearly 40% share in the global passenger vehicle market by 2030.
FCV will remain niche even in 2030.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – May 30, 2022

One in two cars will have an electric powertrain by 2030, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Passenger Vehicle Forecast*. The increase in environmental awareness among buyers, favourable carbon emission norms, support from governments and the collaborative efforts of ecosystem players are all helping electric vehicle (EV) adoption across the world. However, EV penetration was still below 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2021.

Commenting on the regional dynamics, Senior Research Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “China is leading the global EV market, followed by Europe and the US. RoW (rest of world) will be the fastest growing region in terms of EV adoption, driven by Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and Canada.

The EV market in China is influenced by government policies. However, China has reduced subsidies on EVs by 30% in 2022 compared to 2021. Further, the rising inflation rate and supply shortages due to COVID-19 outbreaks have forced OEMs to increase EV prices. April was the weakest month for EV sales in China this year. We expect the situation to improve after COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed and OEMs resume production. The EV sales in China are projected to cross six million units by the end of this year.

Europe is aiming to reduce emission levels by 15% in 2025 and by 37.5% in 2030 from the 2021 levels. This is one of the major reasons for Europe’s EV sales to cross the two million mark in 2021, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. More than 10 countries including Norway, Denmark, France, Germany, United Kingdom and Netherlands have proposed to phase out new sales of petrol and diesel cars. This will help Europe maintain its second position in the global EV market by 2030.

EV sales in the US increased by nearly 100% YoY in 2021. The Biden government has set an ambitious target of 50% of sales being EVs by 2030. Federal and state administrations had previously taken a less supportive approach to EV adoption compared to China and Europe. The latest policy will encourage both OEMs and consumers to be more comfortable opting for EVs over traditional fuel vehicles. Moreover, the US will provide $7.5 billion to build 0.5 million public EV charging stations. We expect the battery electric vehicle (BEV) will account for nearly 30% market share in US passenger vehicle sales by 2030 – but not the half that the government has targeted.”

Other countries contributing to EV adoption include Norway, Japan and India. EV adoption in Norway has already crossed 85% of sales in 2021 and we expect Norway will achieve 100% electrified passenger vehicle sales by 2025. Japan, however, is lagging in EV adoption compared to other developed countries. Toyota and Renault-Nissan have recently adopted a worldwide EV policy and we expect Japan will benefit from these homegrown OEMs. India is aiming to have 30% of its passenger vehicle sales as EVs by 2030. Already, homegrown players such as Tata Motors and Mahindra Electric and a few foreign players like MG Motor and Hyundai are competing for the Indian passenger EV market.

A few years back, it was thought that fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) would be one of the key technologies for the automotive market. However, FCV penetration hasn’t increased much and only a few players such as Hyundai, Toyota, Honda and SAIC are offering FCVs.Commenting on the competitive dynamics, Associate Director Brady Wang said, “The EV market is getting more competitive as new companies, including smartphone ecosystem players, are entering the field. Companies such as Foxconn and Xiaomi have already announced their entry into the smart electric car field to diversify business opportunities. Sony has partnered with Honda to produce affordable EVs.

Tesla is also a relatively new entrant. It introduced the groundbreaking Model S around 10 years ago and now dominates the global EV market. New start-ups like Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng, Lucid Motor, Fisker and Rivian are also trying to follow Tesla’s wheel tracks and disrupt traditional auto OEMs, many of which hesitated to invest in EV development in the initial phase. As next-gen cars will be much more software-driven, we will likely see more new players entering the market. However, the traditional players will still have an advantage thanks to their scale of manufacturing and well-established supply chains. Nevertheless, we expect a fierce battle between traditional and newer players in the coming years as EVs become increasingly mainstream.”

Commenting on EV infrastructure developments, Research VP Peter Richardson said, “Increased EV adoption will not, by itself, contribute to the goal of reducing overall vehicular pollution. While increased EV sales are positive, we also need to focus on setting up smart production ramps, more efficient battery manufacturing processes, battery recycling plants and charging infrastructure powered by renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydro and nuclear. Unless we also adopt clean energy sources, the vision of attaining net-zero carbon emission will remain out of reach.”

In the initial years of EV adoption, there was a chicken-egg dilemma between governments and OEMs. Now, both parties are making collaborative efforts to make the transportation industry greener and more environmentally sustainable, helping smooth the transition from traditional fuel vehicles.

*Under electric vehicles, we are considering only battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Hybrid electric vehicles are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast, 2018-2030F’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com. Feel free to reach out to us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Soumen Mandal

Peter Richardson

Brady Wang

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Reports:

Are Electric Vehicles Safe?

Technological improvements and falling prices of battery technology will see more electric vehicles (EV) on the road in the coming years. Many automakers including, Tesla, BAIC, BMW, Volkswagen, BYD, Hyundai, Mitsubishi and Renault-Nissan are offering various EV models, with a range of body styles and pricing. However, the recent explosions of two Tesla Model S in Hongkong and Shanghai, a NIO ES8 at a residential plot in Wuhan City, China, a Tesla Model 3 on a highway in Moscow and a Hyundai Kona in the owner’s garage in Montreal, Canada, have created doubts among car buyers about the safety of electric cars.

The probability of an EV catching fire is actually lower than cars with internal combustion engines (ICE). According to the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, fire was found in 2.6% of EVs and 4.4% of ICE vehicles, in cases of fatal vehicle crashes. These cases were analysed between 1993-2013 in the US from a database of 60,000 annual crashes. This blog explains the reasons EV catch fire and looks at initiatives being taken by automakers to make EVs safer.

Too many charging standards to follow:

EV chargers follow standards including CHArge de Move (CHAdeMO), Combined Charging System (CCS), Tesla Supercharger, and Guobiao (GB/T). Different charging standards also increase the chances of the problem in supplying different power and voltage for charging infrastructure builders. A uniform global charging standard can go a long way to overcome this issue. In 2017, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics joined Charging Interface Initiative e.V. to develop global charging standard.

Overcharging and overheating are the reasons for damaging battery cells:

Electric vehicles are safer than ICE vehicles due to lower flammability of Li-ion batteries. However, liquid electrolyte in battery cells can overheat with prolonged exposure to defective voltage regulators, alternators or the improper use of chargers. Thermal runaway can occur leading to a fire. Even, charging EVs designed for slow charging with fast chargers can damage battery packs, charging connectors, and compromise battery integrity.

Electric vehicles need small but periodic maintenance:

The electrical systems used in electric vehicles including the battery, electric motor, and related electronic components, require periodic maintenance. Even though EVs required less maintenance than ICE vehicles, ignoring the need for servicing can lead to compromised safety.

More preventions should be taken in battery and wiring harness design by automakers:

NIO, a Chinese EV start-up recalled nearly 5,000 ES8 electric SUVs built between 02/04/2018 and 19/10/2018 for fire catching risk. In June 2019, Audi also recalled more than 540 e-Tron models in the US due to problems in the wiring harness, which was causing moisture to seep into the individual battery cells. Automakers should continue to check more with potential issues with battery design, high voltage wiring harness, battery boxes, waterproofing, charging, and temperature management.

Additional safety measures taken by EV automakers:

Most automakers have shifted to liquid cooling technology to keep the battery temperature in a safe range while the car is in use.
Tesla uses an extra aluminium plate for fire protection between the battery pack and passenger compartment. This is not mandatory or standard yet in electric vehicles.
Leading automakers including Toyota, Tesla, Volkswagen, BYD and BMW are investing heavily in developing next-generation solid-state battery technology that should lead to safer batteries.

Electric vehicles reduce tailpipe emissions and operating costs, but their new technologies create new problems. The combined efforts of automakers, component suppliers, battery suppliers and regulatory authorities will help to make electric vehicles safer and assist the transition towards electric mobility.

BMW Posts Strong Growth in Q3 2019; Big Plans for EV, AV and Shared Mobility

BMW recorded its highest ever sales for a third-quarter due to rising demand for SUVs among younger generations, a balanced delivery distribution of vehicles across the world, and good performance of newer models. It delivered 657,105 vehicles, registering a 4% YoY volume growth, but a 6% QoQ decline. This against a background of shaky consumer demand in China and the US. BMW is slowly transitioning towards new technologies with progress in both shared mobility, electric and autonomous vehicles (AV).

Regionally, BMW remained strong in the EU and the US, and moderate growth in China amid weak market demand. Its performance is driven by the higher demand for premium segment vehicles and improving availability for EV charging stations. Strong partnerships among OEMs, charging infrastructure firms, and shared mobility players helped BMW to grow customer engagement in mobility services by 10.6% QoQ.

BMW propelling toward electric, shared and autonomous mobility

The automotive industry is becoming more complex day by day, so BMW is trying to take a slow and steady approach towards transitioning into electric and autonomous mobility.

In the electric vehicles (EV) space which includes battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), BMW is maintaining a balanced production of EV and non-EVs. According to Counterpoint Research’s analysis, BMW held an 8% market share in global electric vehicle sales in Q3 2019. In the third quarter, the penetration of EVs in BMW’s deliveries was 6%. This is expected to reach 10% by Q3 2020. BMW has already announced that 25 EVs (including 13 BEVs) are to be launched by 2023. We expect at least three EV model will come in the next year. And two of these will be available in China; the single largest EV market and a driving force behind electric vehicle adoption.

In the AV space, BMW is concentrating on testing, programming and simulation of vehicles. BMW has already collected 2000 Petabytes of data up to September 2019 for developing better simulation systems. BMW’s new simulation centre is expected to be ready by 2020, giving an impetus to its self-driving capabilities. This will enable the launch of the iNEXT line of vehicles with Level 3 and Level 4 automation by 2021 and 2024, respectively. We at Counterpoint Research believe that the penetration of AVs with Level 1 and Level 2 to reach 72% by Q3 2020 from 64% in Q3 2019.

Highlights of Q3 2019:

Although BMW set a new record for the highest third quarterly delivery, the total car delivery reached 613,361 units in Q3 2019 decreasing by 5% from Q2 2019.
Motorcycle deliveries were down by 20% QoQ to reach 43,744 units.
Q3 2019 revenue was €26.7 billion increasing 7.9% QoQ.
The total customer engagement which refers to the number of interactions on shared mobility, parking and charging infrastructure platform reached 83 million at the end of Q3 2019 from 75 million in Q2 2019.
Electric vehicle sales increased by 14% QoQ to reach 36,977 in Q3 2019

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