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Connected Car Sales Overtake Non-connected Cars in Q2 2022

The US overtook China in Q2 2022 to lead the global connected car market.
The top five groups – Volkswagen, Toyota, GM, Stellantis and Hyundai – captured half of the market.
5G car sales surpassed half a million, though 4G accounted for 90% of connected car sales.

London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – September 29, 2022

Global connected car sales* remained flat YoY in Q2 2022 despite ongoing turbulence in the automotive industry, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Connected Car Services. The US led followed by China and Europe. The top three regions accounted for nearly 80% of connected car sales in the quarter.

The connected car penetration surpassed that of non-connected cars for the first time ever, capturing almost 50.5% share in Q2. Non-connected cars have been steadily declining as automakers prefer to upgrade their portfolio with factory-fitted embedded connectivity even in base model variants. Luxury brands like BMW, Mercedes and Audi were the first to introduce connected cars with inbuilt Wi-Fi, even before the initial push towards connected vehicles came from government mandates like eCall.

Commenting on the regional dynamics, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The US market trailed China in terms of connected car sales in the first quarter of this year. However, with the resurgence of COVID-19 and plant shutdowns in China from March onwards, the US overtook China. China was the first country to introduce 5G cars back in 2020 with models like the Arcfox Alpha-T, Roewe Marvel R and Great Wall Motors Haval HG. Major automakers such as Audi and BMW entered the market in 2021 and 2022 by launching models like the Audi A7L/A6L and BMW iX respectively. Government initiatives along with a push from state-owned telecom operators regarding the deployment of 5G networks have given China the first-mover advantage.”

Mandal added, “Europe, including major countries like Germany, UK and France, saw its overall sales dip in the first half of the year due to persistent problems like the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain disruptions. However, the region managed to increase its connected car penetration to almost 60% in the second quarter owing to growing connected car technology in the portfolios of incumbent players like Stellantis, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes. From a global perspective, Volkswagen, Toyota and General Motors groups lead the market due to large volumes and high connectivity penetration within their portfolios.”

The automotive industry is going through multiple simultaneous transitions such as connected mobility, electrification, autonomous driving, and software-based services. And connectivity is fundamental for all. However, it is creating pressure on supply chains to support these transitions.

Connected cars surpassing non-connected cars is a significant milestone toward achieving success in the automotive industry transformation. Now the use cases of connectivity within cars are expanding from telematic services to becoming more software-centric, delivering features like digital cockpit through to autonomous driving. As a result, automakers are focusing on using powerful on-board computers for next-generation connected mobility. Currently, connected cars typically use a single NAD module to provide infotainment and predictive analytics. But some Chinese brands and luxury automakers are using two NADs in a technology called Dual SIM Dual Active (DSDA) to provide, for example, uninterrupted infotainment to passengers while simultaneously uploading critical vehicle data on to the cloud for analytics.

Keeping the technology evolution in mind, Research Vice-President Peter Richardson added, “4G cars still dominate the global connected car market, capturing 90% of shipments in Q2 2022, whereas 5G cars accounted for around 7%. Although 5G’s share will continue to increase, 4G will see increased sales on a yearly basis until 2027. There are several factors hindering the proliferation of 5G for cars, such as high prices of 5G NAD/TCU, and patchy network coverage even where 5G has been launched, which in turn means limited availability of 5G capable cars. Furthermore, there is only nascent adoption of ADAS/AD levels – currently, there are few Level 3 capable models and all use 4G. We expect that mass adoption of 5G connectivity will only occur after 2025, when most of these issues will have been resolved”.

*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands, and consider only passenger cars with embedded connectivity.

For detailed research, refer to the following reports available for subscribing clients and individuals:

Counterpoint tracks and forecasts on a quarterly basis around 50 automakers’ sales in key geographies like China, US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Rest of Europe and Rest of World, and by technology/connectivity – 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Peter Richardson

Soumen Mandal

Fahad Siddiqui

Counterpoint Research

Related Posts

LiDAR Now High on Automotive Industry Radar

LiDAR shipments are expected to cross 100 million units by 2030 driven by the automotive industry. The increase in demand for LiDAR will match the increase in demand for ADAS and automated driving in passenger cars and robotaxis. As the number of LiDAR sensors per car increases, reaching a likely maximum of eight units to enable fully autonomous driving, the LiDAR market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 65.9% to reach $15 billion by 2030.

Level 3 and above automated driving will require a fusion of LiDAR, radar and camera sensors. While a few companies, like Tesla and Wayve, will look to make autonomous driving successful without LiDAR, most car manufacturers, like Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, BMW, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Volvo, have already announced their intention to include LiDAR in their sensor suites for ADAS/AD in upcoming car models.

The biggest threat to LiDAR comes from alternative technologies such as cameras and machine vision. A small number of companies believe that vision-based systems are sufficient to support autonomous driving. This can hamper the growth of LiDAR as the cost of switching to cheaper vision-based solutions is relatively low.

Automotive LiDAR market

The current LiDAR market is crowded as more than 70-80 companies are operating globally, targeting different industries and regions. From 2020 onwards, a total of nine companies – Velodyne, Luminar, Aeva, Ouster, Innoviz, Aeye, Indie Semiconductor, Quanergy and Cepton – have announced listing of stocks through SPAC mergers.

Valeo’s Scala is the world’s first mass-produced LiDAR for cars. In 2021, Mercedes-Benz and Honda introduced Level 3 models S-Class and Legend respectively. Both are equipped with Scala LiDAR. Since 2017, Valeo has shipped more than 170,000 LiDAR units.

According to a Counterpoint study, the value of the automotive LiDAR market reached around $100 million in 2021 as car companies including Toyota, Honda and Chinese companies like Xpeng launched models equipped with LiDAR. Many car OEMs have signed deals with LiDAR suppliers for their upcoming models. Chinese automakers are at the forefront in entering such partnerships.

Future of automotive LiDAR market

According to Counterpoint’s Global Autonomous Passenger Vehicle Forecast, by 2025, 10% of the new cars sold globally will have Level 3 driving capabilities. Developed markets like the US and Europe will have a higher percentage of Level 3 cars and will first see the entry of Level 4 cars (subject to regulatory approval). This suggests LiDAR has a considerable growth opportunity as Level 3 and above cars will reach the mass market in unison by 2030. According to Counterpoint’s Automotive LiDAR Market Trends and Implications, 2022 study, the LiDAR market is expected to grow from $0.1 billion in 2021 to over $15 billion and over 100 million units shipped in 2030.

Conclusion

After the first use of LiDAR in the automotive segment, it took more than five years for LiDAR to make it to a production vehicle and it still has not been successful at achieving broad market penetration. But it is early days and the scope for LiDAR is considerable. We believe that despite the slow initial diffusion, LiDAR adoption will gather pace.

For more insights and analyses on the Automotive LiDAR Market, please refer to Automotive LiDAR Market Trend and Implications, 2022, which captures the current and future LiDAR trends, LiDAR cost, and threats to LiDAR in the automotive industry.

Global Connected Car Revenues to Grow Five-Fold by 2025

US and Europe account for the majority of global demand; China is growing faster

Safety regulations and customer experience driving exponential growth globally

Seoul, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Beijing, London, Buenos Aires, San Diego

June 26^th, 2019

Revenues from connected cars globally are projected to grow five-fold, reaching over US$24 billion by 2025, the latest research by Counterpoint’s Smart Automotive Service shows.

For this study, a connected car is defined as a passenger car, having an embedded SIM card for internet connection, with proprietary Telematics Control Unit (TCU) hardware managing data exchanges. The study further categorizes potential OEM revenues by services offered and the originally installed hardware equipment. Connected services include advanced navigation, infotainment (music, social media, news, etc.) subscribed by the driver, as well as emergency assistance and diagnostics alerts as value added, and in some cases, mandated services.

Commenting on the analysis, Aman Madhok, Senior Analyst for Smart Automotive at Counterpoint Research said, “Deep technology applications, specifically, smartphones and notepads, in daily life has created expectations for seamless ‘on-the-go’ technology accessibility in cars, especially among emerging millennial car buyers. Connected cars are gaining preference and going mainstream, with the rising awareness of their enhanced overall comfort, safety, and convenience while driving.”

The Counterpoint Research study reveals that more than 286 million connected passenger cars will be added globally during the 2019-2025 period. US and Europe together accounted for the most connected car shipments in 2018. However, during the forecast period, China is expected to account for more than 35% of connected car shipments. Madhok adds, “Cost sensitiveness of car buyers in China, coupled with a lower share of premium cars, had initially stunted connected car penetration in the country. However, with more and more connected features being offered now by OEMs in mainstream car models, we will expect significant growth.”

OEMs find connected services an important area for generating additional revenues and shoring up profit margins. In partnership with telecom operators, OEMs offer car owners optional connectivity plans ranging from daily, monthly, and annual subscriptions. For example, in the US, AT&T offers monthly plans between US$10 to US$20 on its network for backhaul. The Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), for connected services is the highest for developed countries, where data plans are expensive, e.g., US$180 annually in the US in 2018. For emerging economies like China, the ARPU is considerably lower.”

Exhibit 1: Global Connected Car Shipments (%)

Vinay Piparsania, Consulting Director for Smart Automotive at Counterpoint Research, added, “With more and more countries adopting their own versions of Europe’s eCall, automotive OEMs are taking the opportunity to install original and proprietary embedded telematics systems, opening up significant revenue opportunities to offer connected and subscription-based services globally. By incorporating innovative smart connected features, OEMs are looking to differentiate their models.”

Exhibit 2: Global Connected Car Revenues (%)

Cautioning on the challenges for automakers, Vinay added “Digital features in cars today are expensive and complex. OEMs need to step up their game to provide in-car experiences which are as seamless and intuitive as smartphones. This explains why OEMs are collaborating and even investing in software companies. While OEMs continue to prefer embedded onboard infotainment to diversify their revenues, it is clear that the smartphone’s dominance on personal connectivity is overwhelming. There continues to be considerable debate over how connectivity will develop within the vehicle, i.e., the choice between built-in connectivity or brought-in mobile systems. OEMs failing to innovate, and bring costs down through scale, will lose the race, leaving behind significant revenue on the table.”

The comprehensive and in-depth “Connected Car Revenues to Grow Five-Fold by 2025” report is available for Industry Beats Premium subscribing clients. Please feel free to reach out to us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our in-depth latest research, insights or press enquiries.

Analyst Contacts:

Aman Madhok

Vinay Piparsania

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125 Million+ Connected Cars Shipments by 2022; 5G Cars by 2020

General Motors, BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz are leading the global connected car market, as of 2017. The market is expected to get a major boost with EU’s eCall mandate and rising adoption in China.

San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – April 3, 2018

According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Internet of Things Tracker service, the global connected cars market is expected to grow 270% by 2022 with more than 125 million connected passenger cars with embedded connectivity to be shipped during 2018-2022. The data only represents the global passenger car shipments with embedded connectivity and does not indicate number of active connections. In terms of number of units, the market will be primarily driven by EU’s eCall mandate and rising adoption in China. In Europe, major car consuming economies such as Germany, UK, and France will provide the major thrust to the market.

Commenting on the findings, Hanish Bhatia, Senior Analyst for IoT & Mobility said, “In terms of overall penetration, Germany, UK and US are leading the market at present with highest percentage of total shipments with embedded connectivity sold in 2017. Europe’s eCall mandate is expected to change the market dynamics with higher penetration across European countries. The adoption of eCall in Europe is expected to create ripples across other geographies thereby catalyzing the overall car connectivity ecosystem.”

Exhibit 1: Global Connected Car Shipments % Share 2017 – by Brand

(passenger cars with embedded connectivity only)

Discussing on the brands performance, Hanish Bhatia further highlighted, “General Motors is leading the market in terms of number of shipments, followed by BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz, respectively. The connectivity platforms such as GM’s OnStar, BMW’s Connected Drive and Audi Connect are offering various services while creating new revenue streams and bridging the gap to stay connected with the consumers. Together, these brands account for more than 90% of the total connected passenger cars with embedded connectivity sold in 2017”. “Also, much talked about US-based car maker – Tesla, continues to offer embedded connectivity across its’ portfolio”, he added.

Looking at the connectivity technology, Neil Shah, Research Director at Counterpoint Research said, “The market is more aligned towards 2G/3G networks as of now, however, it is moving swiftly towards 4G LTE connectivity and we expect 4G LTE network to account for nearly 90% of connected passenger cars with embedded connectivity by 2022. Further, we expect 5G connectivity in cars to kick-in from 2020 onwards, however, the overall penetration is likely to remain low till 2022. The progress on the levels of autonomous technology in a car will also dictate the usage of 4G or 5G technology embedded in the cars beyond 2022 when 5G coverage rollout becomes ubiquitous. Further, 5G NR (Standalone or SA) mode rollout which promises lower latencies will be critical for driving an inflection point in commercialization of autonomous cars later in the next decade.”

Exhibit 2: Global Connected Car Shipments % Share 2017-2022 – by Country

(passenger cars with embedded connectivity only)

Market Highlights:

The global connected cars market is expected to grow 270% by 2022 with more than 125 million connected passenger cars with embedded connectivity to be shipped during 2018-2022
In 2017, China and US accounted for nearly 45% of the total shipments. China alone accounted for 32% of the shipments. This is primarily due to a significantly bigger passenger car market in China.
In Europe, major economies including Germany, UK, France, and others are expected to touch nearly 100% connected car penetration by 2020, with early adoption kick-in due to eCall mandate
In case of top brands, General Motors is leading the market with its OnStar platform offering connectivity across geographies
After GM, premium car brands BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz are leading the market. Together, these brands accounted for 90% of connected passenger car shipments with embedded connectivity in 2017
Japanese car OEMs are still behind the curve on embedding cellular connectivity within their cars but should be able to grow faster as they scale faster
In terms of connectivity, 2G/2.5G remains dominant connectivity platforms globally, followed by 3G in 2017

However, 4G is likely to gain traction and account for nearly 90% of connected car connections globally. In case of 5G, Japan and South Korea are expected to lead the market with higher penetration as compared to other markets.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Connected Car Tracker 2018’ is available for purchase at report.counterpointinsights.com. Please feel free to reach out to us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our in-depth latest research, insights or press enquiries.

The Counterpoint’s Internet of Things Market Tracker research for Connected Cars is based on total shipments estimates based on company’s IR results, vendor polling triangulated with sell-through (sales), supply chain checks and secondary research.

Analyst Contacts:

Hanish Bhatia
+91 9871849857
hanish@counterpointresearch.com

@Hanish2501

Satyajit Sinha

satyajit@counterpointresearch.com

@Satya_Analyst

Neil Shah
+91 9930218469
neil@counterpointresearch.com

@neiltwitz

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@CounterPointTR