Access quarterly macro trends that are important for decision makers in the global technology industry.

Counterpoint Macro Index:
Q1 2024

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.

We cover four main areas: Consumer SentimentGeneral Business SentimentTech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.

We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?

✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?

✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?

✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?

✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?​

Counterpoint Research Macro Index Q1 2024

Published Date: 26th April 2024

The Good

Economic data:

• GDP – US outperforms, China and Europe stabilize

• Interest rates – continue on a downward trajectory in the developed world. Central banks position to cut rates by mid-2024

Tech Sentiment:

• AI wave spreads to other tech areas like foundry and memory

• PCs and smartphones could benefit in H2 2024

The Bad

Domestic politics in the West:

• US and EU entering tense electoral cycles


• Economic fundamentals still fragile

• Stimulus boost could be short-lived

Geopolitical conflicts:

• Ukraine struggles on the battlefield, fatigue among Western allies

• The Gaza war risks spreading across the Middle East


• US and EU regulators target powerful tech companies

• Higher risk of trade frictions between US and EU, and China

Likely Trajectory

Positive momentum to continue through 2024

• Q1’s one-year forecast has been maintained due to positive trajectory

• Global economic growth prospects see early signs of recovery

The rise of many secondary risks:

• 2024 is a big election year, covering more than half of the world’s population in more than 50 countries

• US politics impacting global trade relationships
Existing geopolitical conflicts could spread to neighbors

• Renewed threat of US-China trade war

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It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.

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