Counterpoint Macro Index

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Oct 30, 2024

Counterpoint Macro Index: Q3 2024

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer SentimentGeneral Business SentimentTech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?

SOURCE: Counterpoint Macro Index - Q3 2024
Published Date: 30th October 2024

The Good

Economic data:

  • GDP - Stable growth across most regions.
  • Inflation - Firmly in manageable territory for most central banks.
  • Interest rates - Continue on a downward trajectory in the developed world. Rate cuts cycle firmly in motion.
  • China - Finally adopts stimulus measure to meet annual GDP growth target.

Tech Sentiment:

  • AI wave continues, spreading to other areas like energy and infrastructure.
  • Consumer devices expect to rebound, more in terms of value than volume.

The Bad

Domestic politics in the West:

  • Radicalism and rise of far-right surging.
  • Highly contentious US election.

China:

  • Still weak fundamentals, with consumer sentiment in a doom cycle.

Geopolitical conflicts:

  • Ukraine struggles on the battlefield, fatigue among Western allies.
  • The Gaza war risks spreading across the Middle East.

Regulation:
• US and EU regulators target powerful tech companies
• Higher risk of trade frictions between US and EU, and China

Likely Trajectory

Positive momentum to continue through 2024
• Q3’s one-year forecast has been upgraded due to a positive trajectory.
• Global economic growth prospects see early signs of recovery.

Huge non-quantifiable risks on the horizon:

  • The US political divide will lead to radical policy changes in 2025, impacting global trade relationships.
  • Existing geopolitical conflicts could spread to neighbours.
  • Regulatory landscape becoming murky, as friction with Big Tech increases.
  • Supply chain disruption is a likely outcome of all of the above.

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It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.

Summary

Category

Data

Published

Oct 30, 2024

Author

Team Counterpoint

Counterpoint research is a young and fast growing research firm covering analysis of the tech industry. Coverage areas are connected devices, digital consumer goods, software & applications and other adjacent topics. We provide syndicated research reports as well as tailored. Our seminars and workshops for companies and institutions are popular and available on demand. Consulting and customized work on the above topics is provided for high precision projects.