One in Every Two Cars Will be a BEV in 2035, China to Lead Penetration

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Jan 29, 2025
  • BEV sales are expected to grow 25% YoY in 2025 to reach a 16% share in the face of a slowdown in the broader PV market.
  • By 2035, BEVs are expected to account for nearly half of all sales.
  • China will continue to be the biggest market, but Europe and the US will also be key contributors.
  • The fastest growth will come from India, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Japan.

Seoul, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Taipei, Tokyo – January 29, 2025

Global passenger vehicle (PV) sales in 2024 remained stagnant, growing by just 1% YoY, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast. Geopolitical tensions, fear of looming recession and reduced consumer spending in key markets have all contributed to this temporary slowdown in the global automotive market. According to the forecast, the PV market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% between 2025 and 2030 and a CAGR of 2% between 2030 and 2035, surpassing 105 million sales by 2035.

However, while the overall PV market struggles, the EV segment tells a different story. Thanks to booming EV demand in China, global EV sales jumped by 22% YoY compared to last year. Global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) experienced 10% and 49% YoY growth, respectively.

Abhik Mukherjee, Research Analyst at Counterpoint, said: “Major Western automakers are struggling to make profits from their BEV units. To tackle this, they are shifting gears and focusing more on PHEVs for now. This strategy gives them time to fix issues like supply chain gaps and optimize their BEV production processes. Even with a temporary slowdown in 2024, BEV sales, however, are likely to keep climbing. We expect to see passenger BEV sales reach over 16% share in 2025. Automakers are working hard to solve their profitability challenges by improving production methods, teaming up with battery manufacturers and establishing localized supply chains. These efforts aim to cut costs, make BEVs more affordable and strengthen the supply chain for the future.”

Global BEV sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% between 2025 and 2030, followed by a CAGR of 9% between 2030 and 2035. In contrast, PHEV sales are projected to achieve a CAGR of 15% between 2025 and 2030 but will begin to decline afterward as BEV adoption gains sufficient traction.

Discussing regional trends, Soumen Mandal, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, said, “By 2035, BEV sales penetration in China is expected to reach over 60%. However, the fastest growth is expected from India, Latin America, Japan and Southeast Asia. In India and Japan, local brands are likely to lead the charge, while Chinese brands are expected to dominate the markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America. BEV penetration in China, Europe and South Korea is expected to remain over the global average.”

Mandal added, “Meanwhile, the US is determined to protect its domestic automotive industry and will likely block Chinese OEMs from entering its market. Europe has already imposed additional tariffs to restrict the sales of Chinese brands and is expected to continue this approach in the future unless Chinese automakers invest in establishing manufacturing plants for vehicles and components within the region.”

Notes:
*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands.
*EVs here include battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs).

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Published

Jan 29, 2025

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