Overview: The signs of growth in the global smartphone market, seen since late 2023, extended to Q2 2024, which became the third consecutive growth quarter with 8% YoY growth. Most regions registered growth thanks to improving consumer sentiment and macroeconomic conditions. We are optimistic about the positive momentum continuing through H2 2024 despite ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. Consequently, we expect the smartphone market to grow annually by 5% in 2024 globally.

• Apple is diversifying the screen sizes of the iPhone 16 series to give users more choices. The base and Plus models will remain the same, while the iPhone Pro models will likely be slightly larger than their predecessors. The base model’s shipments in 2025 will be somewhat slower due to the influence of the SE 4th generation, which will be released in Q1 2025.
• Samsung’s S25 series and Z7 is expected to outperform their predecessor by 3% and 4% respectively. Contant growth of two product segment will help the brand achieve higher ASP. Within the Galaxy S25 series, the Base and Plus models are likely to perform better than their predecessors, but we expect sales of the Ultra to decline as some of the Ultra replacement demand may be traded up to the Foldable.
• Huawei maintained its position as the leader in global foldable smartphone shipments in Q2 2024, thanks to the success of the Mate X3, Mate X5 and Pocket 2. In the third quarter of 2024, Huawei plans to release the Nova Flip, which is expected to be priced competitively, at around $700, and it will be available only in the Chinese market with a limited volume. However, it is not anticipated to have a significant impact at the moment. Instead, attention is on the upcoming double-folded smartphone which is expected to perform well in the Chinese market.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony - until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.