Market Outlook – Smartphone Shipment and ASP Forecast by OEM Region, Q1 2025
Overview: The overall smartphone ASP is projected to rise by 2.3% YoY to $366 in 2025, a lower forecast than our February prediction of a 3.9% increase. Despite tariff induced pricing pressures, particularly in North America, Q1's substantially weak ASP numbers (-5.6% YoY) and downward pressure in emerging markets more than offset ASP growth expected in H2 globally. Nevertheless, the up-trend in ASP is expected to continue throughout the forecast period. This growth will be driven by a shift toward higher-end smartphones and ongoing 5G migration, which is expected to accelerate as a result of cost pressures that will further squeeze the entry and 4G segment. While the cost of 5G components and smartphones is expected to decline in the long-term as the technology matures and benefits from economies of scale, rising BoM and operational costs - exacerbated by the tariff war - will pressure OEMs to maintain profitability. Leading OEMs like Apple and Samsung are increasingly targeting mature users who exhibit longer replacement cycles but prefer higher-value devices or innovative form factors. The recent move by Apple to retire the iPhone SE line and instead extend the number series with the 16e, reflects this trend, as top OEMs integrate GenAI features into smartphones, significantly increasing BoM costs, particularly in memory. While the full value of GenAI will likely only become clearer with future advancements, early signs suggest that consumers are interested in adopting the first generation of these Gen AI-enhanced devices.
Table of Contents:
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
Existing Subscriber?
Sign in to continue reading
New to Counterpoint?
Register to our service
Category
Industry
Smartphone
Report Type
Report
Time period
Quarterly
Contact us
Author
Yang Wang
Yang is a Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, based out of London. Yang has 10 years of work experience with particular interest in mobile devices, ecosystems, Emerging Markets, supply chain and macro topics that affect the global technology industry. As a tech analyst he has been quoted extensively by leading financial and media outlets. Yang started his career as a management trainee at Jardine Matheson, worked in business development at a SaaS startup, and most recently held marketing and research roles at KaiOS Technologies. Yang holds a Master of Science in Management from London Business School, and a Master of Science in Psychology from the University College of London.
Related Research
Feb 28, 2025
Nov 27, 2024
Sep 3, 2024