- The Counterpoint Macro Index reading of 82.86 for June 2022 marks the index’s worst reading for the year and the lowest since June 2020.
- The war in Ukraine and the ensuing tensions continued to be the biggest contributor. Ripple effects also negatively impacted macroeconomic indicators across the globe.
- Domestic tensions in the US and several European countries also added to the negativity of the index.
- Significant decline seen in the end-of-year forecast, thanks to prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty due to inflation, and no end in sight to the Ukraine crisis.
London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – July 22, 2022
The Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry, dropped to 82.86 in June 2022. This is the lowest level since June 2020.
The single biggest contributing issue was yet again the Ukraine war, which is expected to weigh on the index throughout the year as the stalemate continues. The war continued to have significant spillover effects, including high commodity, fuel and transportation prices, which in turn are causing central banks to increase interest rates.
Domestic politics was the second leading contributor to the index in June. While China’s domestic politics score improved month over month, the US dragged the index further down due to a poor presidential approval rating and the Federal Reserve’s 75-basis-point rate hike sparking concerns about a recession. Europe’s domestic politics score fell from May to June as differences of opinion on how to respond to the war in Ukraine created tensions within European governments, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggled to hold on to power, France President Emmanuel Macron’s party failed to achieve a working majority, and as the European Central Bank warned that the first rate-hikes since the 2008-2009 financial crisis were looming.
Counterpoint Macro Index, June 2022
Commenting on the political landscape in the US and Europe, Research Analyst Matt Orf said, “The near-record-low approval rating of President Biden, declining public trust in the Supreme Court and the legislative agenda in a state of paralysis entering the recess suggest the administration is on a weak footing in combating all the social and economic problems. Europe is on the verge of an energy crisis as the risk of Russia turning off the gas taps looms. Also, political issues are emerging in Italy, France, UK and Germany, which will weaken the solidarity on the Ukraine war front, as well as policy cohesion when it comes to tackling economic issues.”
However, there were areas of resilience across the indicators we track. Commenting on the segments that improved in June, Senior Research Analyst Yang Wang said, “China, the biggest drag on our previous months’ readings, seems to be staging a turnaround. Following the recent COVID-19 lockdowns and declining consumer demand, Chinese officials are keener to revitalize economic growth and stabilize business environment. Elsewhere, consumer electronics supply chain issues eased with demand and supply converging. For the most part, component shortages have eased, and production shutdowns are unlikely in the future. Additionally, the cost of key materials fell further in June, easing the production cost for manufacturers, and shipping times and costs continued to normalize.”
Risk & Impact Chart, June 2022
Looking ahead towards the rest of the year, we have revised down our forecast from 100.9 to 91.79 points (100 is the baseline). The largest decline came from economic concerns, as a weaker growth outlook and stronger than expected central bank actions to combat inflation push the global economy further into possible recessionary scenarios. We also lowered our forecast for international politics, as there appears to be no end in sight to the Ukraine war and as weakening supplies of grains and fuels could cause new diplomatic rows between nations. Lastly, we lowered our forecast for supply chains. We now expect the elevated commodity prices to continue to damage the global supply chain, while weakening consumer demand for tech products may lead to a supply glut in sectors like semiconductors and tech components.
Counterpoint Research’s market-leading Macro Index is a monthly report that aims to capture the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry. We look at issues and measures in macroeconomics, domestic and international politics, supply chains, industry performance and outlook, and regulatory events and outlook. The index captures more than 130 data points every month. Below are some of the key data points that we track:
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Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.