• Counterpoint Research has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% YoY from 4.2% YoY, citing renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.

• Most regions are expected to grow, except North America and China.

• North America is expected to decline due to expected price increases from tariffs.

• China has been revised down to near-flat YoY growth on weaker-than-expected market reaction to the government’s subsidy program.

• Apple and Samsung’s growth projections have been revised down as cost increases are expected to be passed on to consumers, hurting demand — this despite some easing of the tariff burden compared to earlier worst-case scenarios.

• Huawei’s growth outlook has been upgraded due to easing supply chain bottlenecks and sustained momentum from its self-developed chips.

Beijing, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo – June 4, 2025

Counterpoint Research has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% YoY from the previous 4.2% YoY, in light of the renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs. However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report.

2025 Smartphone Shipment YoY Growth Expectations by Region

Price increases from cost pass-throughs remain a key focal point, although the tariff situation remains fluid and unpredictable.

Commenting on the revised forecast, Associate Director Liz Lee commented, “All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia.”

Lee added, “We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series’ strong performance in Q1 2025. Moreover, premiumization trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and GCC – these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones.”

2025 Top 5 Global Smartphone Brands by YoY Shipment Growth (%)

Counterpoint Research’s current forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025, although the escalating rhetoric and uncertainty around trade policy could significantly impact OEM pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and, ultimately, consumer demand.

Commenting on projections for global smartphone shipment growth in 2025, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, “The bright spot this year – again – will likely be Huawei. We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home.”

Qi added, “Is 2025 the breakout year for Huawei globally? It might be a bit soon for that but increasing supply chain strength will definitely help the brand establish a better foothold overseas in the medium term.”

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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