Top

The Race to Open RAN Will Be A Marathon, Not A Sprint!

Seoul, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Beijing, London, Buenos Aires, San Diego

February 13th, 2020

Ever since consolidation in 2013, the Radio Access Network (RAN) market has been dominated by three incumbent vendors: Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia. However, this status quo will start to be disrupted in 2020 as the roll out of 5G accelerates and as new entrants deploy open RAN technologies.

Open RAN deployments today are mostly greenfield builds or emerging market trials. However, major Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are showing increasing interest. For example, NTT DoCoMo in Japan recently launched pre-commercial 5G trials using open RAN fronthaul interfaces on part of its network, while Vodafone hit the headlines last December by announcing plans to issue an open RAN RFI within two years to replace equipment at 150,000 of its European cell sites. Whether this happens or is just a PR gimmick to ruffle the Big Three, remains to be seen.

Regardless, the transition to open RAN will be a marathon and not a sprint. MNOs have already started to select their initial 5G radio partners. As a result, it is highly unlikely that any of the RAN market disrupters will land a significant share of any major MNO’s initial 5G build, even from Vodafone.

Opportunities:

In the short term, the best opportunities are likely to be in-building and private networks, particularly after 5G NR hardware becomes available in late 2020.

“In-building is probably one of the best markets to launch open RAN as high capacity requirements are not needed” said Gareth Owen, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research. “The private enterprise network market is another, as many enterprises, particularly industrial companies have an urgent need to invest in cellular systems, and the most capital efficient way of doing this is by means of an open, virtualized RAN, not a proprietary stack.” he added. Enterprises now have access to unlicensed spectrum for the first time, for example, the CBRS band in the US, and are not necessarily reliant on operators anymore.

In the case of MNOs, the most likely opportunity for open RAN vendors in the short term are for smallish greenfield network builds or in emerging markets where 4G and 5G is still in the planning stages. Several MNOs in developed countries are also looking to deploy open RAN in rural markets. However, new opportunities will emerge as 5G matures and MNOs start thinking about upgrades and enhancements to their networks.

Roll-out schedule, key issues:

Counterpoint believes that there is still significant research, lab testing and trials to complete, plus a few major challenges to be overcome, before widescale open RAN adoption happens. Although there will be some limited commercial roll outs during 2020, big scale open RAN deployments are probably at least 18-36 months away.

Key issues at present include scalability and interoperability. Can an open RAN network provide the capacity needed for widespread deployment, particularly with outdoor macro networks or at big indoor venues, and can MNOs interchange vendors’ software and hardware and still achieve the same performance? There is also a concern that the performance gap between x86-based commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) servers and proprietary hardware is not converging as much as initially expected.

“To date, most open RAN network trials have focused on less demanding markets and it is only now that MNOs are starting trials in dense urban areas such as London, that provide much more challenging, real world conditions,” said Peter Richardson, Research Vice President at Counterpoint Research. “With regards to interoperability, at this stage vendors are just testing their own equipment to see if it complies with open RAN standards, rather than testing interoperability with each other’s products. However, the recent opening of a common test and integration centre in China, with further centres to follow elsewhere, is a positive step which should ultimately resolve this issue.” he added.

Although MNOs are looking for vendor diversity – especially with increasing restrictions on using market leader, Huawei’s products – equipment designed to open RAN specifications needs to mature before the technology can be deployed in commercial networks, at scale, as MNOs cannot risk exposing their customers to unreliable infrastructure. To succeed, new entrants will need to demonstrate that they are reliable partners, have good long-term prospects and ideally should be in a position to offer end-to-end solutions.

“The Race to Open RAN Will Be A Marathon, Not a Sprint!” is a three-part report which provides in-depth insights to the state of the open RAN market, as follows:

Part 1 – provides a detailed overview of the technology of open RAN and discusses key technical issues, including standards development, RAN fronthaul interface options, etc.

Part 2 – provides a detailed outline of the open RAN ecosystem with a focus on the most innovative software providers and fronthaul technology developers, including AltioStar, Mavenir, JMA Wireless, Parallel Wireless, Radisys, Dali Wireless, Phluido Technology, etc.

Part 3 – provides an overview of current pilots and pre-commercial trials (both greenfield and legacy networks) plus up-to-date plans about the open RAN activities of major MNOs.

Background:

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in Technology products in the TMT industry. It services major technology firms and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analysis of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are experts in the industry with an average tenure of 13 years in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contact:

Gareth Owen

Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Gareth has been a technology analyst for over 20 years and has compiled research reports and market share/forecast studies on a range of topics, including wireless technologies, AI & computing, automotive, smartphone hardware, sensors and semiconductors, digital broadcasting and satellite communications.

Term of Use and Privacy Policy

Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited

Registration

In order to access Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited (Company or We hereafter) Web sites, you may be asked to complete a registration form. You are required to provide contact information which is used to enhance the user experience and determine whether you are a paid subscriber or not.
Personal Information When you register on we ask you for personal information. We use this information to provide you with the best advice and highest-quality service as well as with offers that we think are relevant to you. We may also contact you regarding a Web site problem or other customer service-related issues. We do not sell, share or rent personal information about you collected on Company Web sites.

How to unsubscribe and Termination

You may request to terminate your account or unsubscribe to any email subscriptions or mailing lists at any time. In accessing and using this Website, User agrees to comply with all applicable laws and agrees not to take any action that would compromise the security or viability of this Website. The Company may terminate User’s access to this Website at any time for any reason. The terms hereunder regarding Accuracy of Information and Third Party Rights shall survive termination.

Website Content and Copyright

This Website is the property of Counterpoint and is protected by international copyright law and conventions. We grant users the right to access and use the Website, so long as such use is for internal information purposes, and User does not alter, copy, disseminate, redistribute or republish any content or feature of this Website. User acknowledges that access to and use of this Website is subject to these TERMS OF USE and any expanded access or use must be approved in writing by the Company.
– Passwords are for user’s individual use
– Passwords may not be shared with others
– Users may not store documents in shared folders.
– Users may not redistribute documents to non-users unless otherwise stated in their contract terms.

Changes or Updates to the Website

The Company reserves the right to change, update or discontinue any aspect of this Website at any time without notice. Your continued use of the Website after any such change constitutes your agreement to these TERMS OF USE, as modified.
Accuracy of Information: While the information contained on this Website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, We disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. User assumes sole responsibility for the use it makes of this Website to achieve his/her intended results.

Third Party Links: This Website may contain links to other third party websites, which are provided as additional resources for the convenience of Users. We do not endorse, sponsor or accept any responsibility for these third party websites, User agrees to direct any concerns relating to these third party websites to the relevant website administrator.

Cookies and Tracking

We may monitor how you use our Web sites. It is used solely for purposes of enabling us to provide you with a personalized Web site experience.
This data may also be used in the aggregate, to identify appropriate product offerings and subscription plans.
Cookies may be set in order to identify you and determine your access privileges. Cookies are simply identifiers. You have the ability to delete cookie files from your hard disk drive.