Counterpoint Macro Index: Q1 2025

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?

SOURCE: Counterpoint Macro Index - Q1 2025
Published Date: 30 April 2025

The Good

Economic data:

• GDP - Stable growth across most regions.
• Inflation – Manageable, but some uneasiness over flare-ups.
• Interest rates – Continue to decline in the developed world. The rate cuts cycle is firmly in motion.
• China – Annual GDP target to be met, supported by stimulus.

Tech Sentiment:

• AI wave continues, spreading to other areas like energy and infrastructure.

The Bad

Trade War:

• Significant uptick in negative sentiment due to the tariff war between the US and its trading partners

Supply Chain:

• Virtually all parts of the tech and manufacturing supply chain are under pressure due to high levels of tariffs.

Inflation:

• Trade war, tax cuts, and rising bond yields will make the US’ fiscal position even more unsustainable.
• A rebound in inflation is very likely in the US.

Regulation:

• Regulatory regimes in the US and the rest of the world diverge.
• Rapid withdrawal of the US from ESG agendas.

Likely Trajectory

A similar drop in the index as compared to the period between H2 2022 and H1 2023.

• The tariff war will cause significant disruption to the world’s supply chains and undermine growth prospects, while also driving inflation higher.

Huge non-quantifiable risks on the horizon:

• Radical US policy changes in 2025 abound.
• Geopolitical conflicts could reverse course, finally leading to conflict resolution in Ukraine and Gaza. However, the US-China tension will rise to historic levels.The regulatory landscape is becoming murky, as friction with Big Tech increases while the Trump administration adopts the laissez-faire approach.