Europe will be the top region in terms of 5G CPE shipments
We estimate the 5G CPE ASP will fall quickly after 2025
San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – Sep 3, 2020
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is emerging as one of the leading use cases for 5G New Radio (NR) architecture. FWA subscribers will need a new Customer Premises Equipment (CPE), which can either be indoor or outdoor. According to the latest research from Counterpoint Research’s Emerging Technology Opportunities (ETO) Practice, cumulative 5G CPE shipments for FWA will cross the one billion mark by 2030 at an impressive 47% CAGR over the next 10 years.
Source: Counterpoint Research 5G FWA CPE Tracker, July 2020
Commenting on this 5G CPE outlook, Analyst Parv Sharma said: “There is a significant pent-up demand for high-speed fixed home broadband across the globe and the need is further accelerated by the pandemic. Operators are working closely with the ecosystem players from components and module to infrastructure vendors to roll out 5G networks and CPEs to capitalize on this unprecedented opportunity. Traditional network infrastructure and equipment vendors Huawei, Nokia, CISCO, ZTE and Chinese ODMs supplying white-labeled CPEs have been the leading CPE suppliers in the 4G FWA era. However, with the onset of 5G and growing reference designs from component and module suppliers, we are seeing the emergence of vendors from the Wi-Fi home/enterprise networking side, such as Zyxel, Casa and Netcomm, as well as consumer-facing brands such as Samsung, OPPO and Coolpad, which are adding cellular CPE to their portfolios and partnering with operators at a global scale. Huawei and Nokia have been the early movers with wins across multiple operators. They are now looking to scale up their wins further with Huawei, in particular, targeting the sub-$300 5G CPE later this year. However, the ongoing US sanctions on Huawei could derail this ambition while opening up opportunities for other CPE vendors moving into the next year.”
Describing 5G CPE affordability as an important catalyst, Vice President of Research Neil Shah said: “The first generation 5G CPE pricing has obviously been on the higher side. But the growing demand is quickly driving down the cost of 5G components and modules going into a 5G CPE. Suppliers, such as Qualcomm with its CPE reference design program, have spawned a spectrum of 5G + Wi-Fi6 FWA CPE designs with more than 85 wins over the last one year, accelerating the FWA ecosystem growth. The recent entry of other component suppliers, such as Unisoc, ASR and MediaTek, with their low-cost 5G CPE designs would further boost 5G CPE affordability next year. This ecosystem growth, competition, and rising scale with potential Communication Service Provider (CSP) subsidies, will catalyze the FWA adoption.”
Shah added: “We believe the majority of CSPs will also be tempted to take the white-label route as the 5G CPE ecosystem matures and becomes more cost-competitive. Most of the CPEs are expected to be equipped with advanced capabilities, right from supporting 5G NR (NSA/SA), multi-bands, Wi-Fi 6/6E, mesh networking capabilities and VoNR support to, above all, robust design with easy self-install tools driving usability, thus leading to installation and activation cost savings for the CSPs”
Consulting Director and lead author Shiv Putcha, commenting on the regional landscape of the CPE market, said: “During the initial years, North America and Asia (Australia, South Korea and Japan) will drive the regional-level shipments for 5G CPEs. Deployment of mmWave in metro areas and CBRS in rural and remote areas is driving FWA growth in the US. However, by 2030, Europe will have the largest 5G CPE installed base, with majority of the users upgrading from its massive DSL subscriber base.”
Putcha added: “Cellular CPEs are going to be an integral part of the FWA infrastructure to enable ubiquitous indoor household coverage. We estimate that cumulatively close to a billion 5G CPEs will be shipped in a matter of 10 years, accounting for roughly $300 billion in hardware market size alone.”
A detailed analysis on FWA momentum, adoption, opportunities, ecosystem growth and the outlook is available for licensing here.
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in Technology products in the TMT industry. It services major technology firms and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analysis of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are experts in the industry with an average tenure of 13 years in the high-tech industry.
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