• In 2025, global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to decline by 1% due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown.

• China will feel the effects of tariffs in 2025, resulting in output declines and domestic underperformance.

• India is set to be the big winner in 2025, with output growing in double-digit percentages to reach a record 20% share of global output, fuelled by export demand from Apple and Samsung.

• Vietnam, as a global manufacturing export hub, will also see robust growth driven by Samsung and Motorola amid the pressure of tariffs and manufacturing relocation.

• Other geographies are driven by local market conditions, and we see continued declines mirroring their temporarily small positions in global manufacturing output, while smartphone demand remains constrained.

Global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to slip 1% YoY in 2025 due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown, following a 4% rise in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest global smartphone manufacturing allocation tracker. China, India, and Vietnam were responsible for more than 90% of the global manufacturing output in 2024, with India leading in terms of growth. However, in 2025, manufacturing outputs from different countries are expected to show mixed performances.

China will feel the impact of tariffs in 2025, which will result in declining output coupled with forecast domestic underperformance. Commenting on the trend, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Ivan Lam, said, “The global smartphone manufacturing shift has been accelerating after the COVID-19 pandemic, but the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers. Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries. The main winners are India, which has significant growth potential, and Vietnam, which is relatively closer to China and has a mature contract manufacturing and export sector for consumer electronics.”

India is set to be the big winner in 2025. The country is expected to record double-digit percentage growth during the year to captured a 20% share of the global output, fuelled by export demand from Apple and Samsung. Vietnam, as a global manufacturing export hub, will also see strong growth driven by Samsung and Motorola.

Observing the recent manufacturing growth spurt in India, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Prachir Singh, stated, “With traditional global EMS giants continuing to invest in India and local EMS actively participating, the country’s local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved and are now capable of meeting higher production demands – after nearly a decade of refinement. Meanwhile, India’s overall manufacturing ecosystem is continuously growing, and local manufacturing is consistently improving, both in terms of yield and complexity. To further boost the component ecosystem, the government recently launched the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS), incentivizing companies to invest and build in the country.”

Meanwhile, other geographies, driven by local market conditions, will likely see continued declines mirroring their current small and constrained positions in global manufacturing and the weakening of smartphone demand in their domestic markets.

We see India as the long-term winner based on the current global scenario. Counterpoint Research VP, Neil Shah, pointed out, “If Apple really produced an iPhone in a US factory, considering that everything is not in place yet, my estimate is that the price will go up by at least 15%-20%, i.e. $150-$200. We believe this cost increase will be mostly due to the cost delta of labor, factories' amortized CAPEX, and logistics.” Shifting supply chains is not an overnight task; it requires significant effort, capital, and time. Countries like China, India, and Vietnam took decades to build and achieve their current capabilities and capacities.