Memory Solutions for Gen AI Part 13: Uprising Memory Pricing and Strategic Meetings
As June marks the halfway point of 2025, two key topics dominate discussions across industries: the sharp rise in DRAM prices and corporate strategy meetings.
Access to the full report here: Memory Solutions for Gen AI Part 13: Uprising Memory Pricing and Strategic Meetings
Legacy DDR4 is priced 40% higher than DDR5. The recent surge in DRAM prices echoes the semiconductor-wide price hikes experienced during the COVID when legacy supply dwindled. Unlike in the past, Samsung is now taking bold steps to halt the production of legacy products in pursuit of greater competitiveness—China is following suit.
Snowball effect is unlikely to persist for longer. Customers are shifting their designs to DDR5, and as production scales up, prices could ease. In Q1, Chinese chipmaker CXMT held a 10% market share in DDR4 and 20% in LPDDR4 (in bits), contributing to last year’s price decline.
However, CXMT’s share in DDR5 and LPDDR5 are expected to rise from below 1% in 1Q25 to 7% and 9% in 4Q25, respectively, based on our Memory Tracker and Forecast (June).
Strategic Meetings, caution for Positive Bias. Discussions revolving around technology in AI and investment strategies for market share expansion remain the key thesis. However, businesses must also prepare for geopolitical shifts, which often behave like a whirlpool, pulling in all variables at once. In an era where wars in distant nations unfold in real- time, companies must guard against the tendency to separate political risks from economic considerations, leading to analytical errors.
The Boiling Frog Syndrome. The expansion of the HBM market, which has driven recent price increases, is not a sudden development, nor is geopolitical change a short-term trend. Businesses must stay alert to avoid becoming like a frog in boiling water, caught off guard by unforeseen risks.
Author
MS Hwang
MS Hwang is a research director at Counterpoint, specializing in memory semiconductor research. MS Hwang brings over 30 years of experience from Samsung Electronics and sell-side brokerage research roles including ABN AMRO, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Samsung Securities.
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