• One in three smartphones will be GenAI capable in 2025, up from one in five in 2024.
• Smartphone brands positioned GenAI as a key differentiator through 2024 and this trend is likely to continue.
• Apple and Samsung to dominate the GenAI smartphone market in the early years, leveraging their strong presence in the premium segment and developed markets.
• North America, Western Europe and China will lead the initial shipments of GenAI smartphones.
• Agentic AI is shaping up to be the next innovation buzzword in 2025.

Seoul, Beijing, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Boston, London, Taipei, Tokyo – March 19, 2025

One in three global smartphone shipments are expected be GenAI capable in 2025, set to surpass 400 million units during the year, according to Counterpoint Research’s AI 360 Service. In comparison, one in five global smartphones were GenAI capable in 2024. The integration of GenAI into smartphones is accelerating faster than expected, driven by advancements in chipsets and the emergence of more efficient, competitive lightweight large language models (LLMs). As a result, these capabilities are becoming standard in premium models and are set to expand quickly into the mid-range segment starting in 2025.

Smartphone brands positioned GenAI as a key differentiator throughout 2024 and this trend is likely to continue in 2025. However, consumer adoption of GenAI use cases remains limited, as they have been unable to generate strong enthusiasm and offer daily utility. Consequently, OEMs are searching for breakthrough GenAI use cases that clearly benefit users and encourage upgrades beyond incremental hardware improvements.

Apple and Samsung are forecast to dominate the GenAI smartphone market in the early years, leveraging their strong presence in the premium segment and developed markets. Their leadership stems from deep ecosystem integration, seamless hardware-software optimization, and a loyal high-end consumer base. Both brands are actively investing in GenAI with Apple Intelligence and Galaxy AI. They will continue expanding their AI capabilities through regular OS updates and a phased rollout of new use cases throughout 2025.

The democratization of GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to start by late 2026 or early 2027, driven primarily by Chinese brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and HONOR expanding GenAI capabilities into mid-range smartphone segments. As affordable GenAI smartphones become mainstream, overall shipment growth will accelerate, resulting in a noticeable decline in Apple's market share over the medium term.

North America, Western Europe and China will likely lead the initial shipments of GenAI smartphones. North America is at the forefront of integrating GenAI into smartphones with almost half of the region’s smartphone shipments in 2024 being GenAI capable. This shipment share is expected to climb to 82% by 2028. Western Europe is following a similar adoption trajectory. Major industry players, including Apple, Samsung, and Google, are driving this rapid adoption in North America and Western Europe by differentiating their products through premium AI-powered content creation tools, personalized AI assistants, and attractive subscription-based services. However, despite high market penetration, consumer skepticism persists, as many users remain cautious about paying extra for AI-enabled features.

The adoption of GenAI smartphones in China is expected to be rapid, driven by aggressive AI integration from local OEMs. Intense competition among manufacturers will accelerate the introduction of advanced AI capabilities into mid-range devices, faster than in other markets. Major Chinese smartphone brands have already developed their own in-house LLM models. However, these models remain exclusive to the Chinese market.

Looking forward, Agentic AI is shaping up to be the next innovation buzzword in 2025 for the smartphone industry. This technology is emerging as the next unique offering in premium smartphones, aiming to go beyond GenAI assistants by enabling more autonomous, context-aware, and action-oriented AI experiences.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.