Counterpoint Macro Index: Q3 2026

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks the global technology industry’s environment and sentiment every month.
The index covers four main areas – Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that are important for decision-makers in the tech industry, such as:

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?

Macro Index

The Good

Growth momentum

  • Despite renewed inflationary pressure from the energy shock, industrial growth relating to technology in the US, as well as general economic resilience in Emerging Markets, are likely to underline global economic growth.


Global trade

  • The global trading system remains robust even with the onset of the Middle East conflict, as the tariff drama should be firmly behind us.
  • The US-China trade spat is not expected to flare up as both nations will strive to maintain stability, considering difficulties elsewhere. 

The Bad

Policy:

  • Policy predictability is weakening in the US amid institutional tensions, while European centrist governments face mounting electoral pressures and civil unrest.


Geopolitics:

  • The Iran War posed the second hydrocarbon and supply chain crisis in four years and is expected to hit economic growth across the world while adding inflationary pressure to an already weak consumer base.


AI bubble:

  • Whispers of an AI bubble become louder, while highly leveraged companies facing mounting funding pressure amid a global increase in interest rates.

Likely Trajectory

  • Trade and geopolitical frictions are likely to persist in an unresolved state into 2026.
  • The energy crisis is starting to reflect in daily prices and will force central banks and governments into drastic action.
  • AI remains a structural theme, but market focus is shifting toward efficiency, monetization, and discipline.
  • Trade tensions remain high in the background, but a flare-up is unlikely to happen in 2026 due to the scars from the 2025 ‘Liberation Day’ drama.