• AI Advanced PC penetration is projected to climb 52% YoY to reach ~59% of global shipments in 2026; up sharply from ~39% in 2025.
• Definition matters: Microsoft’s Copilot+ PC requires ≥40 TOPS NPUs; many 2026 designs clear this bar.
• Catalyst: Windows 10 end of support on October 14, 2025, drives refresh cycles into 2026.
• Momentum now: OEMs already report material mix shifts (e.g. AI PCs >25% at HP in Q3 FY2025).

AI-Advanced PC shipments are set to rise 52% YoY in 2026 to capture ~59% of total global shipments as the market matures and vendors differentiate across increasingly sophisticated categories, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest AI PC Tracker and Forecast Report.

Counterpoint separates AI laptop PCs into three categories – AI basic laptop, AI-advanced laptop and AI-capable laptop – based on different levels of computational performance, corresponding use cases, and the efficiency of computational performance. We believe currently available AI basic laptops can perform basic generative AI tasks and have dedicated generative AI hardware and NPU (neural processing unit) for entry-level AI applications. These laptops can be supplanted by more AI-advanced and AI-capable models with enough TOPS (tera operations per second) powered by NPU or GPU (graphics processing unit) to perform advanced GenAI tasks really well.

“2026 is the crossover year,” said Associate Director David Naranjo. “Hardware is finally meeting the software moment: NPUs clearing the 40+ TOPS bar unlock richer, low-latency features while keeping privacy and cost of inference under control. As those capabilities land across mainstream price bands, AI becomes a rationale to refresh, not just a nice-to-have.”

Why Penetration Will Accelerate in 2026:

• Hardware readiness: Next-gen Windows laptops – alongside Apple’s M-series systems – ship with NPUs designed for sustained on-device inference, meeting or exceeding Copilot+ requirements in a growing share of models.
• Software pull: ISVs increasingly deliver local AI features (creation, collaboration, assistive tools), reducing latency and improving data privacy.
• Refresh catalysts: The Windows 10 end-of-support on October 14, 2025 (with limited ESU options) feeds a multi-quarter enterprise upgrade cycle that runs well into 2026.
• Early proof points: Major OEMs are already seeing mix shift – AI PCs surpassed 25% of one leading vendor’s shipments in Q3 FY2025 – supporting a steeper ramp next year.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Naranjo added, “The market debate in 2025 was – ‘what counts as an AI PC?’  In 2026, the debate shifts to ‘which AI PC?’ as enterprises standardize on minimum NPU performance, ISVs ship local AI workflows by default, and buyers see everyday value beyond marketing.”

Chip vendors are playing a major role in driving GenAI in PCs. Highlighting the trend, Senior Analyst William Li said, “The first wave of AI PCs will gradually establish three major CPU platforms – Intel Lunar Lake, AMD Strix Point and Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite. These vendors are also moving to next-generation solutions, including to Arrow Lake, Strix Point, and Snapdragon X Elite 2 to enhance the AI PC capability and accelerate the adoption of AI PCs at multiple price points. We believe Intel and AMD will also take GenAI-capable compute mainstream next year to compete with relatively efficient Arm-based Qualcomm and Apple solutions.”

Li added, “At the same time, we expect an upward trend in AI-capable laptops, which leverage high-level to premium-level GPUs to enable even higher-end GenAI applications. This will range from current large language models (LLMs) processed at the edge to advanced large models and even autonomous gaming graphics generating (AI Gfx) models. Players like NVIDIA will look to extend their capabilities and leadership in this segment.”

GenAI Supported by Both Cloud and Edge

The adoption of GenAI in computing, which was initially solely dependent on the cloud, warrants higher computational capability and performance, from training the model to inferencing millions of potential requests per second. However, this is not feasible as well as viable from capacity, cost and energy perspectives. As a result, GenAI capability at the edge or in the PC becomes paramount.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Further, besides better work efficiency, data privacy and security are also important, which can be facilitated by GenAI applications at the edge. This also becomes pivotal to AI at the edge to preserve data sovereignty and environmental efficiency.

Commenting on GenAI use cases, Research Director Marc Einstein said, “Now that AI PCs are reaching a critical mass in terms of adoption, it will be interesting to see how the market utilizes them. There are clear benefits of using on-device AI from an enterprise perspective in terms of security and productivity, and every organization on the planet is eager to reduce their cloud spending which AI PCs can help with."

Einstein added, “To fully capture the value of AI PCs, there will be strong managed services requirements from customers, especially now. Strong financial results from companies in the segment such as HP and Lenovo signal a bright future for AI PC adoption."

About Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint Research is a global market research firm specializing in products across the technology ecosystem. We advise a diverse range of clients – from smartphone OEMs to chipmakers and channel players to Big Tech – through our offices located in the world's major innovation hubs, manufacturing clusters and commercial centers. Our analyst team, led by seasoned experts, engages with stakeholders across the enterprise – from the C-suite to professionals in strategy, analyst relations (AR), market intelligence (MI), business intelligence (BI), product and marketing – to deliver services spanning market data, industry thought leadership and consulting. Our core areas of coverage include AI, Automotive, Consumer Electronics, Displays, eSIM, IoT, Location Platforms, Macroeconomics, Manufacturing, Networks and Infrastructure, Semiconductors, Smartphones and Wearables. Visit our Insights page to explore our publicly available market data, insights and thought leadership, and to understand our focus, meet our analysts and start a conversation.