2026 Smartphone Shipment Forecasts Revised Down as Memory Shortage Drives BoM Costs Up
- Global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to shrink 2.1% due to rising memory costs.
- We have revised down our 2026 smartphone shipment forecast by 2.6%pts, with Chinese OEMs seeing the biggest downward revisions.
- In terms of price bands, the low-end segment is the most impacted, but the impact is being felt broadly.
- DRAM price surges have already increased low-, mid- and high-end smartphone BoM costs by around 25%, 15% and 10%, respectively. We are expecting further cost impacts in the 10%-15% range through Q2 2026.
- ASPs have been revised up 6.9% YoY (from 3.6% in our September update) as cost pass-through and portfolio rebalancing move wholesale ASPs higher.
Seoul, Beijing, Berlin, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – December 16, 2025
Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 2.1% in 2026 as surging component costs are likely to impact demand, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast.
Global Smartphone Market Share and YoY Growth by Key OEM, 2026(E)
Source: Counterpoint Research Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast, Dec 2025 Update.
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding
This 2.1% decline translates into a 2.6%pt downward revision in our 2026 forecast, with key Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO and vivo seeing the biggest deltas from previous estimates.
Smartphone Shipment YoY Growth Forecasts and Revisions, 2026
Source: Counterpoint Research Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast
Note: New forecast Dec 2025, old forecast Nov 2025
“What we are seeing now is the low end of the market (below $200) being impacted most severely, with BoM (bill of materials) costs increasing by 20%-30% since the beginning of the year,” said Research Director MS Hwang. “The market’s mid- and high-end segments have seen 10%-15% price increases.”
According to Counterpoint Research’s latest ‘Memory Solutions for GenAI’, memory prices could rise another 40% through Q2 2026, resulting in BoM costs increasing anywhere between 8% and over 15% above current elevated levels.
“In the lower price bands, steep price increases on smartphones are not sustainable,” said Senior Analyst Yang Wang. “And if cost pass-through isn’t possible, OEMs will start pruning parts of their portfolios – that’s actually what we are starting to see with significantly reduced volumes of low-end SKUs.”
As a result of cost pass-through and portfolio restructuring, we expect average selling prices (ASPs) to also increase next year by 6.9%, revised up from 3.9% in our previous ASP forecast released in September 2025.
Smartphone makers best positioned to weather supply shortages will be those with scale, broad product portfolios (especially at the high end) and tight vertical integration.
“Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters,” continued Wang. “But it will be tough for others that don’t have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins. We will see this play out especially with the Chinese OEMs as the year progresses.”
For these players, we are seeing mitigation strategies, like downgrades of other specifications, being increasingly deployed in the past few months. “In some models, we are seeing downgrades of components like camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, audio components and, of course, memory configurations,” said Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai. “Other tactics include reusing old components, streamlining the portfolio, and pushing consumers to higher-specification ‘Pro’ variants and adopting new designs to stimulate upgrades.”
About Counterpoint Research
Counterpoint Research is a global market research firm specializing in products across the technology ecosystem. We advise a diverse range of clients – from smartphone OEMs to chipmakers and channel players to Big Tech – through our offices located in the world's major innovation hubs, manufacturing clusters and commercial centers. Our analyst team, led by seasoned experts, engages with stakeholders across the enterprise – from the C-suite to professionals in strategy, analyst relations (AR), market intelligence (MI), business intelligence (BI), product and marketing – to deliver services spanning market data, industry thought leadership and consulting. Our core areas of coverage include AI, Automotive, Consumer Electronics, Displays, eSIM, IoT, Location Platforms, Macroeconomics, Manufacturing, Networks and Infrastructure, Semiconductors, Smartphones and Wearables. Visit our Insights page to explore our publicly available market data, insights and thought leadership, and to understand our focus, meet our analysts and start a conversation.
Follow Counterpoint Research
Receive our insightful weekly newsletter and stay ahead of the competition.
Author
MS Hwang
MS Hwang is a research director at Counterpoint, specializing in memory semiconductor research. MS Hwang brings over 30 years of experience from Samsung Electronics and sell-side brokerage research roles including ABN AMRO, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Samsung Securities.
Yang Wang
Yang is a Principal Analyst at Counterpoint Research, based out of London. Yang has 10 years of work experience with particular interest in mobile devices, ecosystems, Emerging Markets, supply chain and macro topics that affect the global technology industry. As a tech analyst he has been quoted extensively by leading financial and media outlets. Yang started his career as a management trainee at Jardine Matheson, worked in business development at a SaaS startup, and most recently held marketing and research roles at KaiOS Technologies. Yang holds a Master of Science in Management from London Business School, and a Master of Science in Psychology from the University College of London.
Shenghao Bai
Shenghao Bai is a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, specializing in Teardown & BoM analysis and smartphone supply chain research. He is also a certified Project Management Professional (PMP). Shenghao has extensive experience working with leading smartphone and smart device companies, including Samsung Electronics, OPPO, and Xiaomi, where he oversaw hardware development and project management across a range of products. His expertise spans product planning and emerging technology trends.