Counterpoint Macro Index
Counterpoint Macro Index: Q1 2026
The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks the global technology industry’s environment and sentiment every month.
The index covers four main areas – Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that are important for decision-makers in the tech industry, such as:
✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?
The Good
Interest Rate:
- Despite renewed inflationary pressure from the energy shock, interest rates are expected to remain at current levels.
Global trade
- The global trading system remains robust, especially in light of US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. The tariff drama should be firmly behind us.
- The US-China trade spat is not expected to flare up as both nations will strive to maintain stability, considering difficulties elsewhere.
The Bad
Policy:
- Policy predictability is weakening in the US amid institutional tensions, while European centrist governments face mounting electoral pressures.
Geopolitics:
- The Iran War posed the second hydrocarbon and supply chain crisis in four years and is expected to hit economic growth across the world while adding inflationary pressure to an already weak consumer base.
AI bubble:
- Strong tech earnings contrast with rising doubts over the returns and sustainability of AI-related capital spending.
Likely Trajectory
- Trade and geopolitical frictions are likely to persist in an unresolved state into 2026.
- Monetary and fiscal policy should remain accommodative at the margins, but if the energy crisis persists, policy could turn decisively more difficult for market participants.
- AI remains a structural theme, but market focus is shifting toward efficiency, monetization, and discipline.
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Author
Team Counterpoint
Counterpoint Research is a global industry and market research firm providing market data, intelligence, thought leadership and consulting across the technology ecosystem. We advise a diverse range of global clients spanning the supply chain – from chipmakers, component suppliers, manufacturers and software and application developers to service providers, channel players and investors. Our veteran team of analysts serve these clients through our offices located across the key innovation hubs, manufacturing clusters and commercial centers globally. Our analysts consistently engage with C-suite through to strategy, market intelligence, supply chain, R&D, product management, marketing, sales and others across the organization. Counterpoint’s key coverage areas: AI, Automotive, Cloud, Connectivity, Consumer Electronics, Displays, eSIM, IoT, Location Platforms, Macroeconomics, Manufacturing, Networks & Infra, Semiconductors, Smartphones and Wearables.