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Insights Tag： Ukraine Crisis

Mercedes Fends off VW in Europe EV Market

  • Europe’s EV market grew 17% YoY in Q3 2022 despite an 8% overall passenger car sales decline.
  • Germany continued to lead the European EV market by taking a 33% share of the sales.
  • The top 10 EV models accounted for 27% of EV sales in Q3 2022.

New Delhi, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Seoul – December 20, 2022

Europe’s passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales* increased 17% YoY in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 61% of total EV sales during the quarter. Germany was the region’s largest market with a third of the total volume, followed by the UK and France.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Vice President of Research Peter Richardson said, “The overall European automotive market has declined for three quarters due to a mix of economic pressures and supply chain disruption. However, major European automotive-producing countries like Germany, UK, Italy and Spain have shown some growth in sales this quarter with EVs being a relative bright spot.”

Europe Top 5 EV Brands' Sales share_Counterpoint
Source: Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q3 2022

Market summary

Mercedes-Benz continued to lead Europe’s EV market with a 9.2% share in Q3 2022. BEVs accounted for 35% of its total EV sales with 75% YoY growth. Its plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) models include the GLE-Class, GLC-Class and C-Class, while its top-selling BEV models are the EQB, EQA and EQC. Although Mercedes leads Europe’s EV sales, it has failed to find a place in the top 10 best-selling models list. Mercedes has 20 models to offer, the highest among all automakers, and most of them have a similar sales share of less than 1%.

Volkswagen took a sales hit in Q2, losing 44% of EV sales YoY. But its supply chain recovered in Q3, enough for it to surpass BMW to become the second largest EV brand with a market share of 8.9%. Its BEV model range is led by the ID series, which includes the ID.3, ID.4 and ID.5 models. It also significantly improved shipments of its PHEV models.

BMW slipped to the third position, taking 8.6% volume share. Its BEV range contributed to 45% of its EV sales. Its top-selling BEV model was the i3 followed by the i4 and iX. The X5 was its best-selling PHEV model, followed by the 3 series and X3.

Among other top-selling brands, Tesla significantly improved its sales from the previous quarter and broke into the top five brands list again. In September, the Model Y was the best-selling EV model in Europe, accounting for 70% of Tesla’s sales.

The top 10 EV models in Europe contributed to around 27% of the EV market in Q3 2022. Best-selling EVs in Q3 were the Tesla Model Y, Volkswagen ID.4 and Ford Kuga.

Europe Top 10 EV Models' Sales Share, Q3 2022_Counterpoint
Source: Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q3 2022

Commenting on the market outlook, Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “We expect the European EV market to remain just under 2.5 million unit sales in 2022. European governments are investing heavily in charging infrastructure, which is helping ease consumer anxiety about adopting EVs. This shift is evident in Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Currently, luxury car brands like Mercedes and BMW are leading EV sales because of the combination of EV and PHEV offerings. But once the affordable mainstream European brands like Renault, Volkswagen and Peugeot strengthen their EV portfolios, we expect overall EV sales volumes to move sharply higher.”

*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands/companies.

*The countries in this study include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and Ukraine.

*Under electric vehicles (EVs), we are considering only battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs). Hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker: Q1 2018-Q3 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

Mohit Aggarwal

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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European EV Market Grew 16% in Q2 2022 led by Mercedes

  • Mercedes-Benz overtook Volkswagen to become the top-selling EV brand in Europe.
  • Germany leads the European market with 28% market share.
  • The top 10 EV models accounted for almost one-fourth of EV sales in Q2 2022.

New Delhi, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Seoul – October 10, 2022

Europe’s passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales* increased 16% YoY in Q2 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 55% of total EV sales during the quarter. Germany, with a 28% share, remained the European EV market leader, followed by France with 16% and the UK with 14%. Among other European nations, Spain and the Netherlands were the fastest growing EV markets, nearly doubling their sales on a YoY basis. However, Norway had the highest EV sales penetration (85%) among European countries and also globally.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Vice President of Research Peter Richardson said, “Europe’s automotive market has been hit by a series of events. The supply chain disruption due to the Russia-Ukraine war had a serious negative impact. The supply crunch of vehicle wiring harnesses and other important components, together with a lack of critical raw materials, forced automakers across Europe, especially in Germany and the UK, to cut vehicle production for several weeks. Moreover, to show solidarity with Ukraine, most automakers halted their businesses in Russia, further hurting sales performance during Q2. Additionally, rising inflation and currency devaluations have pushed raw material costs higher.”

Market Summary

The top five brands accounted for only 36% of the total EV sales across Europe in Q2 2022. Europe is one of the most competitive EV markets where OEMs must fight hard for relatively small market shares. This ensures that most OEMs have similar market shares with a difference of only a few points.

Mercedes-Benz
Leading the pack, Mercedes-Benz accounted for around 9.2% of the total EV sales across Europe during the quarter. Last year, the company announced it would stop the development of internal combustion engines and strengthen its focus on electrification instead. Although the company had the highest number of EV sales across Europe, BEV sales accounted for only 28% of its total EV sales. The company’s present portfolio is strong. Its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models include the GLC-Class, GLE-Class and C-Class, while its top-selling BEV models are the EQA, EQB, and EQE.

BMW
BMW, an early adopter of electrification, was the second-best selling EV brand in Europe in Q2 2022. BMW had a 9.1% share of the EV market in Europe during the period. The PHEV segment accounted for 71% of the company’s total EV sales. The BMW X series and the BMW 3 series cars dominated the PHEV segment, while the company’s i-Series models, namely the iX, i4 and i3, were the flagbearers of its BEV segment.

Volkswagen
Among European OEMs, Volkswagen was hurt the most from the Russia-Ukraine war. Supply chain disruptions and component shortages reduced the company’s sales by 44% YoY during Q2 2022. Volkswagen, one of the largest auto OEMs, was able to secure just 6.2% of Europe EV sales during the quarter. The company is betting on its ID series cars to dominate the EV market. Presently, 64% of EVs sold by Volkswagen are from the ID series alone.

Among other brands, Tesla’s performance fell short of expectations even though its Berlin Gigafactory started production in March 2022. Tesla sales in Europe fell 51% YoY during Q2 2022 mainly due to production halts at its China operations in April and May, stemming from supply issues and restrictions related to the pandemic. A major proportion of Tesla cars sold in Europe is imported from China.

Europe Top 5 EV Brands, Sales Share Q2 2022
Source: Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker: Q1 2018 – Q2 2022

Commenting on the EV ecosystem development, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “Europe is one of the more mature EV markets. EV sales in Europe have gained traction, thus incentives and subsidies related to EV sales have reduced to almost nil in most European nations. Presently, Europe is looking to strengthen its charging infrastructure and battery recycling ecosystem. A strong charging infrastructure network is likely to boost EV penetration. Among European nations, the Netherlands has the highest density of EV charging stations. Alongside governments, private players, such as Webasto, Free2Move, EVBox, Shell and BP, are teaming up with OEMs to set up a network of charging stations across Europe.”

Shah added, “Apart from developing a strong network of charging stations, the rising demand for EVs is leading to the rise of battery recycling plants. Battery recycling plants are necessary to control e-waste and to recycle valuable metals that can be used in new batteries.”

Europe Top 10 EV Models' Sales Share, Q2 2022
Source: Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker: Q1 2018 – Q2 2022

The top 10 EV models in Europe contributed to around 23% of the EV market in Q2 2022. Bestsellers were the Fiat 500, followed by the Tesla Model Y and Peugeot 208. In the year-ago quarter, none of these EVs were among the top five. The change in the market was due to multiple production shutdowns and delays in shipments faced by OEMs. In 2021, the top-selling EV models were the Renault ZOE, Volkswagen ID.4 and Skoda Enyaq iV. In Q2 2022, eight out of the top 10 EV models sold in Europe were BEVs.

Commenting on the market outlook, Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “EV sales are expected to exceed 2.5 million units by the end of 2022, according to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast. The market is expected to be slow due to component shortages, economic turmoil and geopolitical tensions. Still, one in every five cars sold in Europe will likely be an EV by the end of this year. In 2021, EV sales in Europe accounted for 15% of total passenger vehicle sales.”

 

*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands/companies.

*Under electric vehicles (EVs), we are considering only battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q2 2022’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

 

Neil Shah

Peter Richardson

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

 

Related Reports:

Ukraine Crisis Derails Automotive Recovery

The potholes on the road to post-covid recovery for the global automotive sector seem never-ending. The back-to-back waves of COVID-19, followed by the semiconductor shortage and lack of auto spare parts supply forced the auto industry to axe nearly ten million vehicles from production in 2021. It was expected that 2022 would be better, as the auto industry was recovering from the chip shortage. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed the auto industry, especially European players, into a vulnerable situation.

Without even bringing the supply of crude oil and natural gas into the scenario, the effect of this ongoing crisis on the automotive industry can be analyzed in two parts:

1. Production halt due to shortage of critical components and raw materials:

  a. Direct short-term impact on production lines:

Vehicle production across Europe, especially Germany has been severely disrupted as Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is one of the major suppliers of wire harnessing that connect and power all electronic components in a vehicle. An average car can have over 5.5km (3.5 miles) of wire harness. As many suppliers are based in Western Ukraine, German automakers have been able to procure them easily. But as Ukraine became engulfed, the harness supply chain has been disrupted, bringing the production lines of auto factories in Germany and other neighbouring countries to a halt. Auto OEMs including Volkswagen, BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche have either reduced production of selected models or temporarily halted production in certain plants across Germany, due to a shortage of wire harnesses. This is a direct effect of the war, and it has had an immediate impact. If the crisis stretches on, other sectors like component manufacturing will also be affected. The impact on the European auto OEMs could be greater than the COVID-19 outbreak.

b. Medium-term impact on component manufacturing:

Ukraine and Russia hold reserves of some rare elements required in the production of semiconductors, vehicle batteries and other related components. Ukraine caters to almost 70% of the world’s neon demand. This neon gas is required in lasers for lithography used in microchip production. The neon gas is a by-product of Russian steel plants, which is then filtered and supplied by Ukrainian companies. Similarly, palladium is used as a catalytic element for manufacturing microchips. If the crisis persists, the impact to raw materials could again impact semiconductor availability just as supplies were recovering. Similarly, nickel and cobalt are two major raw materials used in the production of automotive batteries. The larger manufacturers of microchips and batteries hold some material in reserve, but these are likely to be quickly depleted if the crisis stretches on for months. This will lead to increased prices of the respective components. With the financial sanctions imposed on Russia, the prices of these elements are likely to increase by at least 20%, which will make the production of electric vehicles more costly.

2. Revenue loss due to imposition of financial sanctions/business closures:

Russia is one of the bigger automotive markets globally. Vehicle sales in Russia exceeded 1.5 million and 1.6 million respectively in 2020 and 2021. But since the crisis started, almost every Western automaker has suspended business in Russia, denting revenues. Moreover, tier-1s and contract manufacturers have also suspended production and services. Auto OEMs such as Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota, General Motors, Honda, Bentley, Nissan, Porsche, Jaguar, Ferrari etc; and tier-1s and component manufacturers such as Continental, Magna, Aptiv, Leoni have all halted their exports to, and production in, Russia. The component suppliers and manufacturers are trying to shift their Russia production to other plants across different countries to curb the component supply shortage in the longer term. In Russia, Renault is the largest automotive seller and due to a $1 billion deal signed in 2007, Renault was unable to pull out of Russia and is bound to keep the production line open. Alongside Renault, Skoda also kept two of its factories in motion, but the production is severely impeded by sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. In this dark time, China is seeing some strong business opportunities. With almost no competitors, Chinese auto OEMs expect to win some extra market share and profit in Russia. China is walking a fine line between neither condemning nor condoning Russia’s action in Ukraine. This could pay dividends for Chinese auto vendors. But given the weak currency situation in Russia, it may not be an easy business to win.

 

Counterpoint Research Russia Vehicle Sales by Brand 2021

The automotive industry is currently going through a very vulnerable period. Auto OEMs will be scrambling to enact contingency plans to deal with a persistent crisis. Though vehicle production lines and production of critical components are being shifted to other regions, the void for raw materials created due to the crisis is not going to be easily filled, which will force auto OEMs either to cut production or to offer vehicles with reduced specifications.

Counterpoint Research Russia Vehicle sales Forecast by 2025

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