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US EV Sales Up 79% YoY in Q1 2023 Helped by Tax Credit Subsidy

  • Tesla sold more EVs than the next 18 automotive groups combined in Q1 2023.
  • Brands like Hyundai, Audi, BMW, Volvo and Nissan remain ineligible for the EV tax credit.
  • US EV sales expected to reach near 1.5 million units in 2023 if economic conditions continue to improve.

New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – June 15, 2023

US passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales soared over 79% YoY in Q1 2023, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s USA Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. This strong growth helped the US surpass Germany to become the world’s second-largest EV market, the largest being China. Battery EVs (BEV) accounted for 81% of all passenger EV sales in the US while plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) made up the rest. In Q1 2023, Tesla’s sales outperformed the combined sales of the next 18 automotive groups, which collectively represent 34 automotive brands.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Research Analyst Abhik Mukherjee said, “Total US passenger vehicle sales improved YoY in Q1 2023. The US economy is showing signs of recovery with lower inflation and improving consumer sentiment. Although EV sales saw strong growth during the quarter, those of conventional passenger vehicles remained flat. One reason was the introduction of an EV tax credit of up to $7,500, which has played a crucial role in driving up EV sales. Currently, around 20 models in total offered by Tesla, GM, Ford, Stellantis, Rivian and Volkswagen are eligible for the tax credit. However, strict eligibility conditions set by the US government have excluded brands such as Hyundai, Nissan, BMW, Audi and Volvo from benefiting from the EV tax credit scheme in 2023.”USA BEV and PHEV Sales share - Q1 2023

The top 10 EV models in the US accounted for 69% of overall passenger EV sales during the quarter. Tesla’s Model Y retained its title of the best-selling EV model, while it also earned the title of best-selling passenger car model globally. Apart from BEVs, PHEVs are also gaining popularity in the US.Top Models Q1 2023 - US EV sales

Commenting on the market outlook, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack said, “With the US economy showing signs of recovery, the auto industry, particularly the EV sector, is being helped by government policies announced last year. Tax credits for new and even used EVs are helping consumers, while investments in streamlining the EV battery supply chain, the establishment of a robust network of EV charging stations and the setting up of battery recycling plants nationwide will all support EV sales growth. Therefore, we expect US EV sales to reach around 1.5 million units in 2023 if economic conditions continue improving.”

*Sales refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by the respective brand/company.

*For EVs, we consider only BEVs and PHEVs. Hybrid EVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘USA Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q1 2023’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Abhik Mukherjee

Soumen Mandal

Neil Shah

Jeff Fieldhack

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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STMicro Beats Q1 2023 Earnings Expectations Despite Chip Shortages

  • STMicro expects 2023 revenue of $17.0 billion-$17.8 billion, representing a 5%-10% growth over 2022.
  • Silicon carbide (SiC) substrate manufacturing facility in Catania will fulfill the continuing demand as Silicon Carbide (SiC) in EVs is growing substantially.
  • In 2023, revenue from SiC is expected to be around $1.2 billion, with a significant portion of its substrates internally sourced by 2024.

STMicro’s Q1 2023 net revenue rose 19.8% YoY to reach $4.25 billion, primarily driven by strong demand from the automotive and industrial segments and partially offset by lower revenue in personal electronics. Revenue from factory automation, robotics and building control grew while new orders normalized. STMicro will have a significant portion of its substrates internally sourced by 2024 as it continues to ramp up silicon carbide front-end device production in its Singapore facility. The company’s gross margin improved to 300bps YoY and 220 bps QoQ in Q1 2023 driven by favorable pricing and improved product mix, net of hedging, but was partially offset by an increase in manufacturing input costs.

STMicro Beats Q1 2023 Earnings Expectations Despite Chip Shortages

  • Automotive: The automotive sector has maintained its momentum helped by a surge in EV adoption and semiconductor integration. STMicro has secured multiple design contracts for SiC, silicon MOSFETs, onboard charging MCUs and zonal controller solutions from several electric vehicle manufacturers. STMicro won several design contracts in vehicle dynamics, airbags and anti-theft applications, as well as SPC5 microcontrollers for vehicle body control in the legacy automotive sector. The legacy automotive sector remains dynamic for now, as silicon integration continues to grow. 
  • Industrial: The industrial segment experienced a surge in demand, driven by the digitalization of devices and the need for improved power and energy efficiency. STMicro secured several design contracts in the industrial sector, offering system solutions that consist of power discrete, power management and STM32 microcontrollers for use in renewable energy applications, multi-product solutions for smart meters, smart grid applications, intelligent power switches, motor drivers, industrial sensors and secure solutions for applications such as industrial automation, asset tracking and server power supplies. STMicro has also introduced the MCU Edge-AI Developer Cloud which includes an online benchmarking service for Edge-AI models on STM32 boards.
  • Personal Electronics: STMicro’s products, such as NFC controllers, secure elements, wireless charging, MEMS sensors and time-of-flight sensors have been chosen by leading smartphone and wearable device manufacturers. In the communications and computer equipment sector, STMicro has secured several design contracts for LEO satellites, as well as for computer peripherals including secure solutions, time-of-flight sensors, microcontrollers and ASICs for communications infrastructure.

Segment Revenue

  1. Automotive and Discrete (ADG): Q1 2023 revenue of $1,807 million, up 43.9% YoY in both automotive and power discrete segments.
  2. Analog, MEMS & Sensors (AMS): Q1 2023 revenue was $1,068 million, with a marginal decrease of 0.9% YoY in analog, MEMS and imaging segments.
  3. Microcontrollers & Digital ICs (MDG): Q1 2023 revenue was $1,368 million, increasing 13.2% year-on-year growth in both microcontrollers and RF communications segments.
  • Forecast: Net revenue for Q2 2023 is projected to be around $4.28 billion indicating a 0.8% QoQ increase, with a possible deviation of 350 basis points. Moreover, the projected revenue for FY2023 is expected to be $17.0 billion-$17.8 billion, reflecting 5%-10% YoY growth, primarily driven by the automotive and industrial sectors.
  • Demand and Supply: The high demand for the automotive, industrial power and energy sectors persisted in Q1 2023, propelled by the continued integration of semiconductors and the normalization of orders from the factory and automation sectors. However, at the end of Q1 2023, inventory was at $2.87 billion compared with $2.15 billion in the year-ago quarter. The days of sales in inventory at the end of the quarter were 122, compared with 104 days in Q1 2022. The automotive segment witnessed a surge in demand across all regions, primarily due to the growing use of semiconductors and inventory replenishment. The backlog has now extended to about six quarters at the mid-point of 2023 which is higher than usual but remains consistent with the diverse end-market segments. 
  • Capex and Investment: Capex stood at $1.09 billion in Q1 2023, up from $840 million in the year-ago quarter. The company plans to invest about $4.0 billion with 80% of the investment directed towards the expansion of the 300mm wafer production and the continued ramp up of SiC front-end device manufacturing in Catania and Singapore. The company also intends to increase its back-end manufacturing capacity in Morocco and China.

Conclusion

STMicro is making significant progress by capitalizing on its impressive portfolio and benefiting from the strong demand in the automotive sector despite the supply chain constraints. The partnership between STMicro and Global Foundries is expected to increase the production capacity to 620,000 wafers annually by 2026. Additionally, STMicro has signed a multi-year supply contract with ZF to provide silicon carbide for its modular inverter architecture which is scheduled to commence production in 2025. To further diversify its raw material procurement, STMicro is implementing smart technology to reduce the cost of the solution at the substrate level.

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Climate Change Concerns Aid LG Electronics’ Q1 Numbers

  • The revenue for Q1 2023 stood at KRW 16.26 trillion, a 5.7% YoY decline.
  • The operating profit of the company declined by 15% YoY.
  • The revenue from the vehicle solutions segment grew 27% YoY to reach KRW 2.4 trillion.

LG Electronics has generated relatively steady Q1 2023 earnings results thanks to the stabilization of material costs and the continued sales of high-end home appliances. The heat pumps and energy storage devices helped it earn more as the climate change restrictions tightened.

The company’s revenue declined 5.7% YoY in Q1 2023 to KRW 16.26 trillion ($12.75 billion), while the operating profit declined 15% YoY to KRW 1.36 trillion ($1.06 billion) owing to sluggish global demand. Although the profit dropped YoY, it was a considerable improvement over the losses in the previous quarter.

The business portfolio is experiencing growth through qualitative measures, particularly in expanding B2B segments such as vehicle components and system air conditioners. Besides, non-hardware business revenue continues to increase. The vehicle component solutions segment raked in high profits, contributing almost 15% to the total revenue, up from 11% in Q1 2022.

LG Electronics Revenue by segment, Q1 2022 - Q1 2023

Financial highlights

  • The consumer electronics segment’s revenue fell 5.5% YoY to reach KRW 11.38 trillion ($8.9 billion). However, the operating profit increased by 92% owing to lower logistics costs, efficient management of raw material supply, improved spending efficiency and active measures to enhance cost structure. The contribution of this segment to LG’s Q1 operating profit rose to 89.7% from 40% in Q1 2022.
  • The revenue of the vehicle solutions segment grew 27.1% YoY to reach KRW 2.39 trillion ($1.87 billion) driven by high order backlogs and the electric vehicle (EV) boom in the automotive market. Supply chain management improvements for key components, like semiconductors, played a crucial role. The operating profit grew to KRW 54 billion ($42.3 million), compared to the loss of KRW 6.7 billion ($5.6 million) in Q1 2022. Although the segment contributed just 4% to LG’s Q1 operating profit, it is touted as the future growth driver.
  • Revenue from other businesses, which include business solutions, kept declining YoY to reach KRW5 trillion ($1.95 billion), falling 25%. The operating profit dropped 91% YoY to KRW 85 billion ($66.7 million). The segment’s contribution to LG’s Q1 operating profit was only 6.3% compared to 61% in Q1 2022.
  • LG Innotek’s revenue grew 10.7% YoY to KRW 4.4 trillion ($3.43 billion). The operating profit decreased by 60.4% to KRW 145 billion ($114 million). This brought LG’s consolidated revenue to KRW 20.4 trillion ($16.01 billion).

Market outlook

Amid declining consumption due to economic downturn concerns, consumer electronics revenue is expected to fall while profits will remain sluggish in the next quarter. The decreasing IT demand will also have negative impacts on yields. The huge order backlog (KRW 80 trillion) and the ongoing transition to EVs will drive the vehicle solutions segment revenue. Based on the high growth within EV markets, it is expected that the EV component business will continue to take up a larger share in the future. A reliable portfolio of in-car infotainment systems, e-powertrain, headlights and unique solutions will maintain LG’s competitive advantage.

LG Electronics is going aggressive on increasing its technological advantage over competitors. This year, the company plans to invest over KRW 5 trillion ($4 billion) in its most significant capital expenditure in 10 years, mainly in the automotive electronics business. This move aligns with the business strategy of focusing on long-term growth and prosperity. The R&D spending has also been increased by 10% this year. LG wants to sustain growth and ensure consistent profitability by proactively and adaptively addressing shifts in demand across various regions and segments. It also aims to expand eco-friendly enterprises in pursuit of revenue growth through energy-efficient and environment-friendly products.

*LG Innotek’s numbers are not included in the total revenue and have been mentioned separately.

Related reports

 

NXP Reports Record Revenue in 2022, Automotive Shines

  • 2022 was a record-breaking year for NXP with solid profit growth and healthy free cash flow generation.
  • Accelerated growth drivers (except UWB) are on track within the expected revenue growth range (25%) to help take NXP’s total revenue to $15 billion by 2024.
  • For Q1 2023, the company expects revenue of about $3 billion. This would mean a deceleration of 4% YoY with a 9% downside sequentially.

NXP Semiconductors reported record revenues of $13.21 billion in 2022, a yearly growth of 19.4% on account of increased revenues in all end markets, unprecedented design wins across the entire portfolio and higher pricing (due to input cost inflation). Automotive and core IoT markets witnessed robust demand throughout 2022, outstripping the company’s supply capabilities. Consumer IoT and mobile markets experienced softening demand environment in the latter half of the year. In Q4 2022, NXP delivered revenues of $3.31 billion, up 9% YoY and down 4% QoQ. The Q4 revenues were $12 million better than the midpoint of the guidance with all markets performing in line or better than expected except the communication and infrastructure segment. The full-year non-GAAP gross profit was $7.64 billion with non-GAAP gross margin standing at 57.9%, an increase of 180 basis points YoY due to higher internal factory utilization and follow-through on higher revenues.


NXP Revenues by Segment, Q4 2022 Counterpoint Research

Automotive

  • NXP’s automotive business captured 52.1% of the total revenue in 2022, an increase of 2.4% from the previous year. Revenue for the full year stood at $6.88 billion, a yearly growth of 25.2%. This growth was driven by higher pricing, record customer design wins (for xEV solutions – battery management solutions, inverter controls, other xEV control processors, etc.), and strong traction of company-product drivers owing to accelerated content increases within xEVs and premium car models.
  • Q4 revenues were $1.81 billion, up 17% YoY and flat QoQ, in line with the company’s guidance. Due to supply constraints, NXP couldn’t ship more in Q4.
  • NXP emphasized on its auto-specific accelerated growth drivers, which will help it with increased yearly revenues in the future. They include 77-gigahertz radar solutions, electrification systems, and the S32 domain and zonal processors. Customer enthusiasm for S32 processors continues to grow, far exceeding expectations. A major automotive OEM has selected the S32 family of automotive processors and microcontrollers for use across its fleet of vehicles beginning next decade.
  • In Q4, NXP introduced the high-performance S32K39 series MCUs for electrification applications like traction inverter control, BMS and OBC, and announced its collaboration with Delta Electronics in which the latter will utilize NXP’s S32 automotive platform and S32K39 MCUs to develop next-generation EV platforms. At the CES this year, it unveiled the SAF85xx SoC, the industry’s first 28-nanometer RFCMOS radar one-chip IC family for ADAS applications.
  • For Q1 2023 revenues, the company is estimating this segment to be up in the mid-teens and flattish on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. Increased global automotive production and growing penetration of xEVs would prove beneficial for future revenue growth.

Industrial & IoT

  • The industrial and IoT segment’s revenue for 2022 was $2.71 billion, up 13% YoY. The growth can be attributed to higher pricing and demand for its industrial processors, and analog, connectivity, and security solutions. Specifically, its secure connected edge solutions (accelerated growth driver), which include both crossover and i.MX application families of processors, grew nearly 50% YoY in 2022.
  • Q4 revenues were better than their earlier guidance at $605 million, down 8% YoY and 15% QoQ respectively. Due to lockdowns in China and uncertain macro conditions, consumer-exposed IoT businesses saw a deceleration in revenue.
  • In Q4, the company launched its new analog front-end (N-AFE) family of devices targeting industrial applications, specifically software-defined factories. It will help with high-precision data acquisition and condition monitoring systems for factory automation. Schneider Electric is incorporating the N-AFE family in its industrial solutions. NXP also launched MCX N series MCUs for secure intelligent edge industrial and IoT applications and expanded its portfolio of end-to-end Matter solutions by announcing the RW612 and K32W148 wireless MCUs. Both are targeted toward smart home applications such as garage doors, thermostats, smart plugs, and smart lighting.
  • For Q1 2023, the industrial and IoT segment is expected to be in the negative territory in both YoY (low 30% range) and QoQ (low 20% range) terms. The core industrial business remains supply constrained in some areas while consumer IoT is expected to experience cyclical weakness in demand and potential correction of customer inventory.

Mobile

  • For 2022, Mobile segment revenues stood at $1.61 billion, an increment of 14% YoY due to higher pricing and continued traction of the secure mobile wallet.
  • In Q4, it reported revenues of $408 million, up 9% YoY and down 0.5% QoQ, and faring better than the company’s guidance. As observed in the previous quarter, weakness in the Android mobile market continued to persist, affecting the largely channel-driven mobile business.
  • NXP’s mobile segment-specific accelerated growth driver Ultra-Wideband (UWB) was below the expected revenue growth range since NXP’s UWB solutions are aimed at the Android market, which is experiencing softening demand. However, the company is optimistic about this growth driver in the near future as it continues to build out its ecosystem and register more design wins both in the mobile and automotive sectors.
  • For Q1 2023, NXP is expecting this segment to be down in the mid-40% range both in YoY and QoQ terms. The mobile segment is dependent on a cyclical rebound and is expected to improve performance as and when the Android handset market fares better.

Communication infrastructure and other

  • The ‘communication infrastructure and other’ segment’s revenue in 2022 was $2 billion, up 15% YoY. This growth was driven by higher pricing and sales of in-demand solutions like network processors, secure transit and access products and RF-powered products for the cellular base station market.
  • Q4 revenues stood at $494 million, up 8% YoY but down 5% QoQ and below the company’s guidance. Weakness in this quarter had nothing to do with demand but was primarily due to operational issues and supply constraints.
  • NXP’s accelerated growth driver – RF power amplifiers – was on track as per its expected revenue growth range. The industry transition from LDMOS technology to gallium nitride happened faster than expected and the company’s revenue doubled YoY with respect to gallium nitride-based solutions. However, the demand continues to outstrip even its increasing supply capabilities.
  • In January 2023, NXP launched a new wideband GaN RF transistorMMRF5018HS – primarily for aerospace and defense communications.
  • For Q1 2023, the guidance expects the revenues to be flat both in YoY and QoQ terms. NXP will try to improve its supply capabilities to cater to the pent-up demand in RFID packing solutions, e-government identification, 5G base station market build-out especially in India, and more.

Capex overview and inventory

  • Cash flow from operations stood at $3.9 billion in 2022. Net capex investments were $1.06 billion or 8% of overall revenue, a 1% jump from the previous year. Due to softening demand in consumer-oriented markets, internal front-end utilization rates have dropped for non-auto industrial products. From running in the high 90s in Q3 to touching 90% in Q4 2022 and in Q1 2023, it is expected to go down to 85%. Despite this, NXP is confident of keeping its gross margin within its long-term range of 55%-58% as it has a disciplined inventory management approach and a better grip on its cost structure, which is more variable in nature now than it was in past.
  • NXP continues to face shortages in certain nodes and other technologies like 180 nanometers, 9055 gallium nitride and the high-voltage analog mixed-signal (which are proprietary to NXP). This can lead to significant customer escalations which the company hopes will moderate by the end of this year. However, it remains optimistic about its supply capabilities in the future as its ability to cater to risk-adjusted backlog has gone up from 85% in 2022 to 90%-95% in 2023.
  • DOI has increased to 116 days, a 17-day sequential increment, and distribution channel inventory has been deliberately restricted to 1.6 months as opposed to its long-term target of 2.5 months. China’s market is experiencing weaker sell-through and NXP is being prudent about shipping more in the channel as it might not meet the true end demand and lead to an unnecessary inventory build-up. Since more than 50% of the company’s revenue goes through the channel, it is taking a very vigilant inventory management approach and keeping more than enough products in hand to fill the channel as and when required.

Conclusion

Input cost inflation due to supply chain constraints led to higher pricing for NXP solutions in 2022, a trend that will continue this year as well. Dynamic macro trends continue to pose an uncertain general demand environment and a potential rebound in the Chinese market could significantly improve end markets’ revenues, which is why managing internal and channel inventory is an important topic for the company. Overall, NXP is prepared for market uncertainties and will continue to execute diligently on its accelerated growth drivers and be disciplined with its operating expenses while protecting long-term R&D investments.

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Podcast #60: Key Macro Risks For Tech Industry in 2023

The macro-environment saw a rollercoaster ride in 2022, one where our Counterpoint Macro Index dropped from 106.17 to 82.88 between January and November. Several factors contributed to the decline, such as the war in Ukraine, high inflation, the possibility of a global economic recession, and China’s strict COVID-Zero policies.

Besides, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve not only slowed economic growth but also strengthened the US dollar, the effects of which were particularly painful in emerging markets. Technology firms that were previously thriving had to resort to mass layoffs, spending cuts and downward earnings guidance in preparation for a bleak economic outlook.

Moving into 2023, which of those macro risks will remain, and which new risks should the tech firms watch out for? Counterpoint Research analysts have voted on the top 10 macro risks that companies should pay close attention to.

In the latest episode of The Counterpoint Podcast, host Matt Orf is joined by Senior Analyst Yang Wang, based in Europe, and Research Analyst Archie Zhang, based in China. We bring on-the-ground and unique insights into the macro risks that cannot be ignored. The topics discussed in the podcast range from economic issues such as energy crisis and a potential global economic recession to geopolitical and political issues such as the US-China showdown and developments in US domestic politics.

Click the Play Button to Listen to the Podcast

You can read the podcast transcript here.

Podcast Chapter Markers

3:09 – Yang on factors contributing to an economic downturn in 2023, and the potential impact.

5:40 – Yang further talks about the economic downturn and how it will affect the technology world.

8:17 – Matt on the energy situation and the pressure points.

15:11 – Matt on some background and indication of the direction American policy might take in 2023.

19:09 – Archie on the US-China trade relationship.

22:54 – Archie further deep-dives with more details on China’s COVID-19 situation.

26:49 – Yang on emerging markets and problems they are more likely to face in the coming year.

Also available for listening/download on:

      

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Top 10 Macro Risks For Tech World in 2023

  • Counterpoint analysts say economic recession will be the biggest macro risk affecting the tech world in 2023.
  • Economic recession is followed by the ‘US vs China rivalry’ and ‘energy crisis’ risks.
  • There is a sense that the tech industry is at the whim of factors it cannot control, as most of the issues do not relate to tech itself.
  • China-related issues feature prominently on the ranking, appearing three times.

 London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – January 24, 2023

Counterpoint Research has released its latest list and analyses of the top 10 macro risks that are most likely to impact the tech industry in 2023. In the list, which is a result of a survey conducted among Counterpoint analysts, the potential of economic recession ranks as the highest, by a large margin, followed by ongoing US and China tensions, and the energy crisis, which mainly stemmed from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Average Score of Top 10 Risks Rated by Counterpoint Analysts

average score of top 10 risks rated by counterpoint analysts

The risk of economic recession continues to impact almost all industries, and tech has not been spared, despite the post-pandemic boom. The concerns about recession driving other macro risks resonate throughout our analysts’ primary concerns, such as in expected emerging markets’ pain, tech earnings retreat, and China’s recovery path. As we wrap up the report, there is a sense that the worst of the economic headwinds in the developed world may have passed, but there are still question marks over how much of the damage has already been inflicted, or how fast the economic rebound will be in the coming year.

In 2022, we also saw an escalation of tensions in the United States vs China rivalry. Most prominently, sanctions by US authorities against China’s fledging semiconductor industry are likely to hold back growth in this strategically important sector, with deep and long-lasting ramifications in China and beyond. Elsewhere, the two countries still hold many grudges, the most significant being the status of Taiwan, stance over the war in Ukraine, and trade tensions. Any of these have the potential to plunge the countries into deeper conflicts, but from our point of view, the fragmentation of the global system into potentially ‘two standards’ is the most serious threat for the tech industry, as innovation will slow while costs go up.

Inflation reached the highest levels in decades in the West in 2022. One of the key drivers of this inflation was, and remains, the energy crisis. The cost of energy spiked in 2022 as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially for European nations, as well as those in emerging markets. As we foresee no conclusive end to the war, energy will continue to be an unstable platform for the global economy in 2023, particularly as a large increase in energy demand is expected due to China’s reopening. There are positive signals on the renewable energy front, such as the EU and US passing landmark clean energy packages that are expected to increase investments and reduce emissions much more quickly than initially anticipated. But still, the world is many years and perhaps decades away from stopping its reliance on hydrocarbons as the main source of energy.

BONUS PODCAST: Key Macro Risks For Tech Industry in 2023

Here is a snapshot of the rest of the top 10 risks:

  1. Emerging markets pain: The post-pandemic boom is absent in emerging markets, resulting in a notable drop in living standards. A strong US dollar, lack of inward investments, deteriorating fiscal and monetary positions, and continued volatility in energy and food supplies will hamper emerging markets’ growth potential.
  2. Tech earnings retreat: Big Tech hired too many workers and took on too many poorly thought-out projects. Now, the withdrawal of ‘easy’ money is harshly exposing the less robust companies. Sectors exposed to geopolitical tensions, regulatory scrutiny, and business models accused of brewing social ills will be most under pressure.
  3. China’s disorganized withdrawal from COVID-Zero: A sudden withdrawal from COVID-Zero has taken most of the population by surprise, leading to a massive infection wave and excessive deaths. An economic rebound is expected in 2023 with the release of pent-up demand, but the healthcare damage could linger on in the economy and society.
  4. China’s long-term economic stagnation: China saw three ‘lost’ years during the pandemic when economic growth was put on the back burner. It will be a test to see if the country can rediscover its economic growth mojo, while tackling a range of structural issues including population decline, high debt levels and a fracturing real estate sector.
  5. Cybersecurity: The pandemic and the war in Ukraine ushered in a period of persistent and high-profile cyberattacks, which will continue to pose grave risks to businesses and institutions in the coming years. There is a sense that defenders struggle to catch up with the attackers, who are richly resourced and operate nimbly, with some backed by malevolent state actors.
  6. Supply chain ‘reshoring’ not living up to expectations: Talk of building a domestic and ‘resilient’ supply chain continues to gain traction, but the global recessionary environment, the nature of economic principles, and logistical realities pose daunting challenges for those looking to move established supply chains home.
  7. Climate change: 2022 was the warmest year on record. Extreme weather caused significant human life and economic losses. Some progress has been made by the world’s most important actors, but it falls short of key climate goals. Companies are starting to modify their business practices to take a more responsible stance toward the environment, but sometimes this appears to be more of a marketing spin than real action.

Despite our gloomy tone, we would emphasize that the reason why negative shocks hit the tech industry hard in 2022 was that many were unprepared for the extent and concentration of the risks. In 2023, many of the risks we identified will become well known, and the nimblest companies will institute mitigating mechanisms to navigate the uncertain near-term future. Nevertheless, it is critical for all industry participants to be wary of potential risks and plan for potential opportunities, instead of being overwhelmed by short-term adversity.

Counterpoint subscribers can access the full report here.

We welcome questions, feedback and discussion with clients over the risks we set out here as well as the ones that didn’t make the cut.

Counterpoint Research’s market-leading Market Monitor, Market Pulse and Model Sales services for mobile handsets are available for subscribing clients.

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our in-depth research and insights.

You can also visit our Data Section (updated quarterly) to view the smartphone market share for World, USA, China and India.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Yang Wang

 

Follow Counterpoint Research
 

NXP Q3 2022 Revenues Better Than Expected; Automotive, Mobile Segments Shine

  • NXP’s Q3 2022 revenues were $20 million more than the midpoint of the company’s previous guidance. The automotive, mobile and communication infrastructure segments performed better than expected. But the consumer-exposed IoT and Android mobile segments experienced weakness.
  • NCNR order book continued to surpass NXP’s 2023 supply capabilities.
  • For Q4, the company expects revenue of about $3.3 billion (± $100 million). This would mean an increment of 9% YoY with 4% downside sequentially. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 57.8% (± 50 bp) and operating expenses are expected to be near $720 million (± $10 million).

NXP reported revenues of $3.45 billion in Q3 2022, an increase of 20.4% YoY and 4% QoQ, and $20 million more than the midpoint of the company’s previous guidance. NXP’s automotive, mobile and communication infrastructure segments performed well compared to Q2, while the industrial and IoT segment struggled. Specifically, the consumer-exposed IoT business, accounting for almost 40% of revenue, experienced weaker sell-through in the channel. However, demand from automotive and core industrial customers remained resilient supported by accelerated growth drivers. Due to higher factory utilization and sales volume, the non-GAAP gross profit was almost $2 billion and the margin was 58%, up 150 basis points YoY.

NXP Revenues by Segment, Q3 2022 Counterpoint Research

Sources: Company, Counterpoint 

Automotive

  • NXP’s strong suit, the automotive segment accounted for 52.4% of the total revenue in Q3 and stood at $1.8 billion. This was a 24% YoY and 5% QoQ growth. Auto demand for silicon content continues to be robust with rising EV penetration and increased autonomy efforts. Strong growth for advanced analog, automotive processing and radar solutions was visible in Q3. However, due to supply constraints, there was a shortage of microcontrollers and analog products in automotive. The NCNR order book in this segment continued to outstrip the company’s supply capacity, which will remain “sold out” next year too.
  • The company also announced collaborations and a product launch in the third quarter. NXP’s S32 family of domain and zonal automotive processors is gaining traction among automakers as a preferred scalable platform for software-defined vehicles. A leading global automaker has selected the S32 MCUs/processors for its upcoming fleet of vehicles, starting 2025. NXP released the second-generation RFCMOS radar transceiver, TEF82xx, which supersedes the market-proven TEF810xx. This high-performance, single-chip solution supports short-, medium- and long-range radar applications including cascaded high-resolution imaging radar. Besides, NXP has collaborated with ChargePoint of the US for charging solutions and has also included its proprietary payment solutions to allow a seamless process for the customers.
  • For Q4 revenues, NXP is estimating this segment to be in the high teens and flattish on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively.

Industrial & IoT

  • The industrial and IoT segment’s revenue was $713 million, an increase of 17.5% YoY with no QoQ change and $32 million below the company’s guidance. The YoY increase was driven by the demand for crossover processors, 32-bit AMR MCUs, point-of-sale security solutions and more. As mentioned earlier, the consumer-exposed IoT business was much impacted. Since August, there was a global softening visible in the consumer IoT market with China getting affected strongly. Since NXP has a sizeable channel exposure in China and serves thousands of customers via distribution partners, the revenues in that domain took a hit.
  • Going forward, NXP could ship more into the channel but instead decided to limit channel inventory to 1.6 months (as opposed to the long-term target of 2.5 months) to prevent losses due to uncertain macro conditions. The company will closely gauge and adhere to market requirements depending on the developing demand and, if required, redirect it to other customers. With respect to on-hand inventory, the DIO increased five days sequentially to 99 days with more increments expected in the future.
  • For Q4, the industrial and IoT segment is expected to be in the negative territory in both YoY (low double-digit) and QoQ (high teens) terms.

Mobile

  • The mobile segment had revenues of $410 million, up 19% YoY and $30 million more than what was expected. Despite seeing weakness in the Android mobile market, NXP attained better than estimated revenues due to being exposed to the higher-end (which seems to be doing better) rather than the lower-end mobile phone market, increased attach rate for its secure mobile wallet, advanced analog high-speed interfaces, eSIM connectivity and more.
  • As Ultra-Wideband (UWB) penetration starts picking up in different verticals like mobile, IoT and cars, the company will be able to accrue more revenues in the future, from its UWB technology along with mobile wallet solutions. UWB use cases are already visible in China as UWB functionality in phones (flagship models) such as those from Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi. These smartphone players have collaborated with automakers to implement UWB-based solutions in cars to offer consumers secure car access. NXP expects four Chinese OEMs to offer this technology by the end of this year with a minimum of three more to follow in 2023. Kostal is using NXP’s UWB technology for its digital key system, which is being adopted by local company Nio.
  • For Q4, the company is expecting this segment to be up in the low single-digit range YoY and down in the upper single-digit range QoQ.

Communication Infrastructure & Other

  • The communication infrastructure and “other” segment’s revenue was $518 million, slightly above the guidance. Annual and quarterly growth rates were 14% and 4% respectively. The growth can be attributed to the demand for network edge equipment, RFID tagging solutions, cellular base stations and more.
  • NXP launched its new higher-power BTS7202 RX front-end modules (FEM) and BTS6403/6305 pre-drivers for 5G massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) going up to 20 W per channel. These solutions complement its 32T32R active antenna systems and are developed using the company’s silicon germanium (SiGe) process. As 5G network coverage expands, there is a need for higher-power solutions to ensure consistent network quality along with reduced operational costs for MNOs. The newly announced devices can cater to these requirements with higher power per channel and modest consumption.
  • For Q4, the guidance seems positive and stands in the low-teens range YoY and flattish QoQ.

Capex Overview and Inventory

  • Cash flow generation continues to be excellent according to the company. In Q3, cash flow from operations stood at $1.14 billion compared to $819 in Q2. Net capex accounted for 8.2% of the revenue or $281 million. Due to supply constraints and strong demand (especially in the auto sector), internal utilization remained in the high 90s. More than 65% of the capacity was focused on IP proprietary mixed-signal, auto-centric capacity internally.
  • Capex for this year has decreased from 10% to 8% due to delays in equipment deliveries. For 2023, it will range between 6% and 8%.
  • From the demand perspective, there is weakness in the consumer IoT and Android mobile market, whereas the automotive and core industrial markets are witnessing resilient demand. On the supply side, the situation is reversed with the latter markets facing supply crunches and not being able to cater to the true demand. On the other hand, in the former markets, excessive shipping in channels is being prevented because of uncertain macro conditions.

Conclusion 

NXP’s supply capabilities have improved over time but major end markets like auto and core industrial continue to face shortages. Prevalent weak macro conditions and extended China lockdowns will cause further hindrances to the revenue recovery of consumer-oriented markets. However, the company is being cautious and trying to mitigate costs by reducing its discretionary spending, lowering incentive compensations, and focusing on a strict approach to managing distribution channel inventory.

Landis+Gyr Posts Robust H1 2022 Results Despite Supply Chain Constraints, FX Headwinds

Landis+Gyr, a leading global provider of integrated energy management solutions, posted H1 2022 net revenue of $728.7 million, a 4% rise from the year-ago period.Counterpoint Research - Landis+Gyr Net Revenue, H1 2018 to H1 2022

H1 2022 Highlights:

  • The company’s H1 2022 bill-to-book ratio was strong, reflecting the continuation of smart metering rollouts across major regions, conversion of backlogs, project deployments, contract wins and strong demand. Landis+Gyr’s revenue and financial performance improved with the help of growth in its residential load management software and services, and meter data management system solutions.
  • The company had a solid order intake of $773.2 million in H1 2022 across its three main regions of operation. However, total backlog for the period rose 7.5% YoY to a record-high of $3,480 million, driven by component shortages and supply chain constraints.
  • Landis+Gyr is set firmly on the innovation track with new technological advances, such as the E360 IoT grid-edge meter, E660 next-generation industrial grid-edge meter, cloud-native data hub connector application, GridFlex control SaaS demand-side management solution, NB-IoT-supported T550 heat and cold meter, and the water portfolio development which is on track for launch in 2023.
  • The company is rapidly growing in the Latin America region with the release of new solutions such as the Magno cabinet meter, Wi-SUN in collaboration with Cisco, Revelo residential meter, G480 NB-IoT ultrasonic gas meter and the Edge intelligence ecosystem.
  • Acquisitions and investments with a strong focus on high-growth opportunities, such as new EV charging infrastructure and flexibility management, will give Landis+Gyr over-proportional growth and make it resilient to recession.
  • Landis+Gyr’s smart infrastructure investments in Australia and New Zealand continue to pioneer smart water solutions to detect customer-side and network leaks and reduce non-revenue water losses. The company is set to roll out its smart water meter in New Zealand in partnership with Watercare as it embarks on its first wave of digital transformation in the country.

Counterpoint Research - Landis+Gyr Revenue by Region, H1 2018 to H1 2022

Regional Key Developments in H1 2022

Americas:

  • The Americas region delivered net revenue of $391.7 million in H1 2022, up 20.4% YoY, driven by higher contract wins including APS, United Illuminating, Peoples Gas, Tri-County and Meriwether Lewis Electric.
  • The strong revenue growth was also driven by large advanced metering infrastructure rollouts during the period, namely PSE&G NJ, LG&E and AES Ohio.
  • Major wins in Latin America with Equatorial, ENEL and EDP for cabinet meters and Iberdrola for C&I meters also helped boost revenue.

Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA):

  • Net revenue from the EMEA region fell 6% YoY in H1 2022 to $248 million driven by the unavailability of critical components. The French and UK markets were hurt by delayed projects and weak currencies during the period.
  • However, smart meter shipments are expected to increase to 4 million units by 2023 due to the SMET2 implementation program, which will replace the SMET1 smart meter.
  • The Fluvius project in Belgium along with the metering rollout in Switzerland will drive high order intake for smart meters through continued public tender activities. Landis+Gyr’s partnership with Enedis in France will be a growth driver for the region.

Asia-Pacific (APAC):

  • Net revenue from the APAC region jumped 23.8% YoY in H1 2022 to $89 million, with the New Zealand and Australian markets being the main drivers. The backlog from this region continues to grow due to strong order intake in Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand and Southeast Asia (SEA).
  • The company’s initial deployment of the E360 smart meter in Australia as part of the long-term partnership with Yurika, a unit of Energy Queensland, is proving to be beneficial.
  • The advanced metering infrastructure in the SEA region is expected to grow as markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines are transitioning away from non-AMI setups. The extended partnership with HK Electric to supply smart meters in Hong Kong is also helping Landis+Gyr increase its footprint in the SEA region.

Key Takeaways:

  • Improvements in computing power are driving digital transformation in the utility sector and Edge intelligence for localized decision-making is becoming more critical as the penetration of distributed energy resources is increasing.
  • Like the rest of the smart meter market, the ongoing supply chain constraints are weighing on Landis+Gyr’s ability to fulfil customer orders. However, we expect the situation to ease in H2 2022. Landis+Gyr has been building up its inventory in anticipation of strong shipments in H2 2022.
  • The inventory build-up will result in negative free cash flow but we expect Landis+Gyr to be well positioned to support utilities and end customers.
  • Landis+Gyr is set to benefit going forward as the strong order intake indicates a favourable market environment and an increased need for more intelligent power grids. This will drive energy efficiency and ensure critical infrastructure stability which will be further amplified by the energy crisis.

Related Posts:

China Q2 EV Sales Almost Doubled YoY, Despite a Weak Quarter

  • BYD led China’s EV market, followed by Wuling, Tesla, Chery and GAC Group.
  • Top 10 EV models in China accounted for more than 44% of the country’s total Q2 2022 EV sales.
  • One in four cars sold in China will have an electric powertrain by the end of 2022.

New Delhi, Beijing, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Seoul – September 15, 2022

China’s Q2 2022 passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales* almost doubled from that a year ago, despite the quarter being a weak one, according to Counterpoint’s Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. Pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for almost 78% of total EV sales, while the remaining were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). BYD remained the market leader, followed by Wuling and Tesla. Emerging brands, such as Xpeng Motor, Neta (Hozon Auto), Leapmotor, Li Auto, NIO and AITO (Seres), proved to be strong competition for the top players.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “China is a mature EV market but it still has immense potential to expand further. Fresh COVID-19 cases from March 2022 onwards and the supply chain crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war have adversely affected the Chinese automotive industry. Had it not been for these factors, the China EV market would have achieved sharper growth. The price hike by most Chinese automakers during March, followed by strict COVID-19 lockdowns during April and May around Shanghai, restricted growth in the domestic automotive industry. Although better results are expected in H2 2022, the economic downturn, energy crisis, supply chain bottlenecks and rising geopolitical tensions may hinder market growth, especially for EVs.”

Market summary: 

BYD Auto: BYD, which has been the market leader in China since mid-2021, sold more than 353,000 EV units in Q2 2022. The automaker’s BEV segment grew 229% YoY while its PHEV division expanded 312% YoY. The company’s decision to discontinue the production and sales of pure ICE vehicles since March 2022 allowed it to focus on electrified vehicles and become the global EV leader.

Wuling: The SAIC-GM-Wuling joint venture has been very successful in China. Wuling’s Hongguang Mini EV has been the flag bearer for the brand since the end of 2020 and has been China’s best-selling EV model for more than the past 18 months. Wuling’s EV sales grew almost 16% YoY during Q2 2022.

Tesla: The pandemic-related lockdowns in Q2 2022 severely hurt Tesla’s business. Production ramp-ups were almost completely halted in April and May during which its sales in China fell 49% YoY to reach the lowest number for the automaker since 2020. The situation improved only after production resumed to full capacity in June 2022. The company ended Q2 2022 on a positive note with 10% YoY growth in sales.

China EV market in Q2 2022 Counterpoint

Commenting on the EV infrastructure development, Associate Director Brady Wang said, “Direct subsidies to consumers have played a big role in increasing EV adoption across China. Now, as the government plans to phase out direct subsidies to consumers, the country’s dual credit policy for EV production is likely to play an important role. Moreover, many laws that were implemented to save China’s automotive industry from the onslaught of foreign OEMs are being lifted as domestic brands have matured and are now even penetrating other markets, such as Europe and Southeast Asia. Moreover, China’s component industry, especially the battery supply chain, has been strong and is expected to maintain its global dominance. Apart from the increased EV sales and a strong battery supply chain, China also has a good charging network and domestic players are currently focusing on developing proper battery recycling facilities. China is at the forefront in every aspect of the EV ecosystem and has become the leading global figure in the EV space.”

The top 10 EV models in China accounted for more than 44% of the country’s total EV sales in Q2. Wuling’s Hongguang Mini EV remained the undisputed best-selling model for the quarter followed by BYD’s Song and Tesla’s Model Y. However, in June 2022, the Model Y overtook the Hongguang Mini EV to become the top-selling model. China’s EV market is dominated by domestic brands, along with Tesla. Six of the top 10 models were from BYD, among which the BYD Yuan Plus and BYD Dolphin were released after Q2 2021.

Top 10 EV Models in China Counterpoint
Source: Counterpoint Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, Q2 2022

Commenting on the market outlook, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “EV sales in China constituted 15% of the total passenger vehicle sales in 2021. According to Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Car Forecast, EV sales are expected to cross the 6-million-unit mark by the end of this year. The market will likely remain subdued due to the ongoing chip crisis, COVID-19 outbreaks, energy crisis, geopolitical tensions and rising consumer inflation. However, we believe one in four cars sold will have an electric powertrain by the end of 2022.”

*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands/companies.

*Under electric vehicles (EVs), we are considering only battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

The comprehensive and in-depth Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Tracker, Q1 2018-Q2 2022 is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Related Reports:

Automotive, Industrial Segments Drive NXP’s Strong Q2 Numbers

  • Second quarter revenues for NXP were $37 million more than the midpoint of the company’s previous guidance with the automotive and industrial segments performing well while the mobile and communication infrastructure segments were in line with its expectations.
  • Amid the ongoing macroeconomic and supply chain turmoil, the company is banking on its NCNR orders to provide its customers with supply assurances. For 2023, NCNR orders are already more than what the company can supply. Therefore, NXP is focused on de-risking its existing backlog for potential double/stale orders and improving supply capabilities.
  • For the third quarter, the target is to achieve 20% YoY growth at $3.425 billion. The automotive and industrial segments will take the center stage again to provide a safe landing going forward with respect to demand.

Despite macroeconomic headwinds and supply chain constraints, NXP reported healthy Q2 2022 revenues at $3.31 billion, an increase of 27.6% YoY and 5.6% QoQ. Major revenue drivers for this quarter were the automotive and industrial segments, accounting for almost three-fourths of the total revenue. Strong customer demand within these segments is outstripping the company’s improving supply capabilities.

NXP Revenues by Segment, Q2 2022

Sources: Company, Counterpoint

Automotive

NXP’s automotive segment captured almost 52% of the total revenue and stood at $1.7 billion, rising 35.7% YoY and 10% QoQ respectively. From the supply point of view, the automobile industry is still feeling the effects of factors like COVID-19 lockdowns in China, Ukraine-Russia war and semiconductor shortages, resulting in fewer cars being produced. On the demand side, consumer sentiment is muted due to macroeconomic factors affecting purchasing power. However, despite the production being down, the content within cars is increasing due to increased digitization and the growing penetration of xEVs in the market, which is where NXP benefits a lot.

Products in demand include battery management systems, inverter control, MCU/MPU, Goldbox (service-oriented gateway) and more. The automotive industry is pivoting towards software-defined vehicles, which will be complemented by two parallel architectural evolutions, namely zonal and domain. To support these vehicular functions and accelerate integration, NXP introduced two new processor families, S32Z & S32E, to extend the benefits of its innovative S32 automotive platform. Additionally, the company also announced that it would be working with Hon Hai Technology Group (or Foxconn) to jointly develop platforms for a new generation of connected cars. This collaboration will enable solutions focused on architectural innovation and platforms for electrification, connectivity, and safe automated driving.

Industrial & IoT 

The industrial and IoT segment grew by 25% YoY and 4.5% QoQ to reach $713 million. The segment contributed 21.5% to the total revenue. Use cases for smart and connected applications, like within homes or factories, are evolving and leveraging the potential of IoT. NXP is serving the needs of its customers through secure connected edge solutions in the form of advanced analog solutions, general purpose MCUs and application processors. Its broad portfolio includes scalable compute platforms along with collaborations with multiple cloud players like AWS, Azure, and Baidu, which allows for differentiated software enablement and services. In June, NXP announced the new Arm Cortex-M core-based MCX portfolio (MCX N/A/W/L series) of microcontrollers which are scalable, flexible enough to simplify migration and allow developers to maximize software reuse across the portfolio to minimize total system cost. These MCUs are suitable for smart homes, smart factories, smart cities and across many emerging industrial and IoT edge applications.

The supply chain constraints are evident based on NXP’s channel inventory. Its industrial business, especially in China, is dominated by the distribution channel and is sitting on a channel inventory of 1.6 months, which is still a month below its target of 2.5. However, the Chinese government’s stimulus programs are providing respite for the company’s industrial and automotive market operations. According to NXP, since June, the effects of the stimulus have been significant and would prove to be beneficial for the second half of the year as well.

Communication Infrastructure & Others 

The segment saw a flat sequential growth but an almost 20% YoY increase to reach revenues of $498 million. This capex-driven wireless infrastructure segment accounted for 15% of the revenues. NXP’s increased value proposition stems from its technological leadership (in wireless solutions and RF components & processors catering to applications like enterprise networking, wired/wireless network infrastructure and data center), system expertise and manufacturing scale. Its leadership in accelerated growth driver RF power systems for cellular base stations is witnessing robust demand. Furthermore, as 5G deployments continue to expand globally and carriers optimize power consumption for sustainable 5G networks, NXP is in place to serve all 5G configurations and systems ranging from 5G Macro and 5G mMIMO to 5G mmWave.

NXP has expanded its massive multiple input, multiple output (mMIMO) product portfolio by launching a new series of RF power discrete solutions for 32T32R active antenna systems, employing its proprietary Gallium Nitride technology (GaN). This new series complements its existing portfolio of discrete GaN power amplifiers for 64T64R radios. These 5G mMIMO systems were produced in NXP’s own advanced GaN manufacturing facility and it now has the largest offerings for the RF GaN portfolio for massive MIMO 5G radios. For 5G rollouts in densely populated areas, 64T64R solutions are appropriate and for less dense urban/suburban areas, 32T32R solutions are suited best.

Mobile 

This is the only segment that saw its revenues going down QoQ (-3.2%). But they grew 11.8% on a yearly basis. Revenues reached $388 million, a decline of $13 million from the previous quarter. The segment witnessed a QoQ decline due to macroeconomic weakness in China where the company is exposed to low-end Android players. NXP has faced supply issues in this segment in the past quarters as well, hence it has been very careful to not grow any inventory down the chain. Furthermore, it is shifting its supply from mobile to other segments like auto and IoT as the demand in these segments is more robust and consistent. However, its strong hold in the secure mobile wallet (which includes technologies like NFC, eUICC and MIFARE 2GO), embedded power solutions, and UWB ecosystem solutions (accelerated growth driver) has experienced continued strong adoption. UWB technology is gaining traction and seeing an increased installed base across different verticals like IoT, cars and mobile, and NXP is well-positioned to drive this ecosystem.

NXP has collaborated with ING and Samsung for innovations in payment services by bringing forth the industry’s first UWB-enabled peer-to-peer payment application. Project NEAR will leverage UWB-based Samsung Galaxy smartphones with an ING bank application to allow consumers to send money directly to peers when two Galaxy phones are in proximity. Instead of inputting bank details, the sender can simply be in close range of the recipient and a swift transaction can happen, made possible via NXP’s Trimension SR100T UWB chips. Further, the company’s SN110 convergence eSIM solution (which integrates eSIM, NFC and secure element) is used in Xiaomi’s Redmi Note 10T and HONOR’s Magic4 Pro models for remote SIM provisioning with multiple MNO subscriptions, along with advanced features like smart access, payment, and secure mobile transit.

Future Guidance and Capex Overview

For the upcoming quarter, the company expects to attain $3.425 billion in revenue, plus or minus about $75 million at the midpoint. This is up 20% YoY and about 3% QoQ. The non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be about 57.8%, plus or minus 50 basis points. NXP has attempted to de-risk its Q3 outlook keeping in mind the macroeconomic conditions that are already affecting its mobile and consumer end markets. But the auto and IoT segments will continue to perform well due to strong customer demand. Both auto and IoT segments are expected to be in the low 20% range YoY and in the mid-single digit range QoQ.

The capex for Q2 was $268 million, a decline of $11 million from the previous quarter. The company is focused on improving its supply capabilities by employing a hybrid manufacturing model and making sure no excess inventory is being built down the chain in any of its major end markets. NXP is remodeling its factories (all are 200 millimeter) to focus on manufacturing proprietary specialty processes unique to the company. Furthermore, it is transferring more of the CMOs to its foundry partners to create more internal space for its facilities, allowing it to work on advanced products catering to the ever-growing needs of different industries. Currently, 60% of the wafer supply is coming from the foundry process, most of which is turned into CMOs logic processes (especially for the ones below 90 nanometers and pertaining to 300 millimeter).

Conclusion 

The automotive and industrial segments continue to be NXP’s strong suit where most of the recurring revenue is generated. The company remains bullish on these segments for the second half as well. This is evident as the company is already sold out for the rest of the year with respect to these segments and there are ever-growing content increases in these underlying sectors. The automotive sector will see more xEVs produced in the second half and by the end of the year, the share of green vehicles will be 26% of the global car production. Higher EV penetration means more semiconductor content (higher ASP for silicon content as well) and ultimately more revenue growth for the company.

Going forward, NXP is aiming to improve inventories and supplies for its major end markets because for the foreseeable period, it estimates its supply capabilities to cover 80% of the underlying demand. Based on its aforementioned new product launches, design win commitments and healthy NCNR order book, NXP is confident that its future growth and investments are well-aligned with the long-term market requirements.

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