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Global Cellular IoT Connections to Cross 6 Billion in 2030

Global cellular IoT connections grew 29% YoY to reach 2.7 billion in 2022 with 4G continuing to grow its majority share.
China held more than two-thirds of total cellular IoT connections in 2022, followed by Europe and North America.
NB-IoT dominates in China, while LTE-M is preferred in Australia, Japan and North America; Europe supports both.
4G and NB-IoT are the most preferred technologies for cellular IoT applications.
5G is nascent as module prices and breadth of applications reflect early-stage dynamics.
IoT growth drivers are shifting, with the enterprise and transformation initiatives key in propelling IoT connections forward.

San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – June 12, 2023

Global cellular IoT connections grew strongly at 29% YoY to reach 2.7 billion in 2022, according to Counterpoint’s latest Global Cellular IoT Connections Tracker report. They are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.8% to reach an installed base of over 6 billion by 2030. China held more than two-thirds of total cellular IoT connections in 2022, followed by Europe and North America.

Amid the challenges faced by various industries, such as inflation, macroeconomic headwinds and supply chain constraints, the cellular IoT market has experienced remarkable growth fuelled by the digital transformation initiatives undertaken by various industry applications like smart meters, automobiles and asset tracking in particular. Cellular IoT connectivity has played a significant role in enhancing productivity, streamlining operations, minimizing downtime, automating processes and generating cost savings for industries. The COVID-19 outbreak unexpectedly proved beneficial for enterprise IoT players, accelerating their digital transformation efforts.

Commenting on the cellular IoT connectivity technology dynamics, Senior Research Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “At the end of 2022, 4G and NB-IoT together accounted for nearly 90% of the installed base of cellular IoT connections. 4G emerged as the most preferred technology for cellular IoT connections after surpassing 2G and 3G-based IoT connections in 2016. NB-IoT has gained significant popularity in China, while Japan, Australia and North America prefer LTE-M technology for lower-end applications. Europe has adopted a combination of NB-IoT and LTE-M, supported by roaming services offered by most operators.

In recent times, 4G Cat 1 bis technology has gained significant popularity over NB-IoT due to its superior performance. Applications such as POS, telematics and smart meters are increasingly adopting this technology on a larger scale. The rising shipments of devices based on 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies are contributing to the stagnant market growth of NB-IoT.

5G is still nascent but we expect 5G-based applications to pick up as the module ASP (average selling price) drops to sub-$100 and more 5G RedCap-based solutions become available in the market. The introduction of 5G RedCap and 5G eRedCap will play a crucial role in driving mass adoption of 5G, particularly in developing and underdeveloped countries.”

Commenting on the market outlook, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “The global cellular IoT connections installed base is expected to surpass 6 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 10.8%. The growth will be mainly driven by cellular connectivity adoption across various sectors such as utilities, automotive, industrial, retail and healthcare. Unlike the previous decade, where consumer devices like smartphones and PCs played a significant role in driving cellular connections, this decade will see a shift towards cellular connections being propelled by the digital transformation initiatives undertaken by enterprise IoT payers. The widespread adoption of cellular connectivity will also contribute to a further reduction in prices for cellular-connected devices, making them more competitive against alternative non-cellular connectivity technologies like LoRa, Sigfox and Wi-SUN. Over the past year, the cellular IoT industry has witnessed many consolidations, including Telit’s acquisition of Thales’ cellular IoT business, Semtech’s acquisition of Sierra Wireless, and Aeris Communications’ acquisition of Ericsson’s IoT accelerator and connected vehicle cloud business. As the cellular IoT module market continues to mature, we can expect more consolidations aimed at providing improved solutions and maintaining competitiveness against other non-cellular connectivity technologies.”

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Cellular IoT Connections Tracker, 2022’ report is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

Neil Shah

Mohit Agrawal

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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STMicro Beats Q1 2023 Earnings Expectations Despite Chip Shortages

STMicro expects 2023 revenue of $17.0 billion-$17.8 billion, representing a 5%-10% growth over 2022.
Silicon carbide (SiC) substrate manufacturing facility in Catania will fulfill the continuing demand as Silicon Carbide (SiC) in EVs is growing substantially.
In 2023, revenue from SiC is expected to be around $1.2 billion, with a significant portion of its substrates internally sourced by 2024.

STMicro’s Q1 2023 net revenue rose 19.8% YoY to reach $4.25 billion, primarily driven by strong demand from the automotive and industrial segments and partially offset by lower revenue in personal electronics. Revenue from factory automation, robotics and building control grew while new orders normalized. STMicro will have a significant portion of its substrates internally sourced by 2024 as it continues to ramp up silicon carbide front-end device production in its Singapore facility. The company’s gross margin improved to 300bps YoY and 220 bps QoQ in Q1 2023 driven by favorable pricing and improved product mix, net of hedging, but was partially offset by an increase in manufacturing input costs.

Automotive: The automotive sector has maintained its momentum helped by a surge in EV adoption and semiconductor integration. STMicro has secured multiple design contracts for SiC, silicon MOSFETs, onboard charging MCUs and zonal controller solutions from several electric vehicle manufacturers. STMicro won several design contracts in vehicle dynamics, airbags and anti-theft applications, as well as SPC5 microcontrollers for vehicle body control in the legacy automotive sector. The legacy automotive sector remains dynamic for now, as silicon integration continues to grow.

Industrial: The industrial segment experienced a surge in demand, driven by the digitalization of devices and the need for improved power and energy efficiency. STMicro secured several design contracts in the industrial sector, offering system solutions that consist of power discrete, power management and STM32 microcontrollers for use in renewable energy applications, multi-product solutions for smart meters, smart grid applications, intelligent power switches, motor drivers, industrial sensors and secure solutions for applications such as industrial automation, asset tracking and server power supplies. STMicro has also introduced the MCU Edge-AI Developer Cloud which includes an online benchmarking service for Edge-AI models on STM32 boards.

Personal Electronics: STMicro’s products, such as NFC controllers, secure elements, wireless charging, MEMS sensors and time-of-flight sensors have been chosen by leading smartphone and wearable device manufacturers. In the communications and computer equipment sector, STMicro has secured several design contracts for LEO satellites, as well as for computer peripherals including secure solutions, time-of-flight sensors, microcontrollers and ASICs for communications infrastructure.

Segment Revenue

Automotive and Discrete (ADG): Q1 2023 revenue of $1,807 million, up 43.9% YoY in both automotive and power discrete segments.
Analog, MEMS & Sensors (AMS): Q1 2023 revenue was $1,068 million, with a marginal decrease of 0.9% YoY in analog, MEMS and imaging segments.
Microcontrollers & Digital ICs (MDG): Q1 2023 revenue was $1,368 million, increasing 13.2% year-on-year growth in both microcontrollers and RF communications segments.

Forecast: Net revenue for Q2 2023 is projected to be around $4.28 billion indicating a 0.8% QoQ increase, with a possible deviation of 350 basis points. Moreover, the projected revenue for FY2023 is expected to be $17.0 billion-$17.8 billion, reflecting 5%-10% YoY growth, primarily driven by the automotive and industrial sectors.

Demand and Supply: The high demand for the automotive, industrial power and energy sectors persisted in Q1 2023, propelled by the continued integration of semiconductors and the normalization of orders from the factory and automation sectors. However, at the end of Q1 2023, inventory was at $2.87 billion compared with $2.15 billion in the year-ago quarter. The days of sales in inventory at the end of the quarter were 122, compared with 104 days in Q1 2022. The automotive segment witnessed a surge in demand across all regions, primarily due to the growing use of semiconductors and inventory replenishment. The backlog has now extended to about six quarters at the mid-point of 2023 which is higher than usual but remains consistent with the diverse end-market segments.

Capex and Investment: Capex stood at $1.09 billion in Q1 2023, up from $840 million in the year-ago quarter. The company plans to invest about $4.0 billion with 80% of the investment directed towards the expansion of the 300mm wafer production and the continued ramp up of SiC front-end device manufacturing in Catania and Singapore. The company also intends to increase its back-end manufacturing capacity in Morocco and China.

Conclusion

STMicro is making significant progress by capitalizing on its impressive portfolio and benefiting from the strong demand in the automotive sector despite the supply chain constraints. The partnership between STMicro and Global Foundries is expected to increase the production capacity to 620,000 wafers annually by 2026. Additionally, STMicro has signed a multi-year supply contract with ZF to provide silicon carbide for its modular inverter architecture which is scheduled to commence production in 2025. To further diversify its raw material procurement, STMicro is implementing smart technology to reduce the cost of the solution at the substrate level.

Global Cellular IoT Module Shipments Jump 14% YoY in 2022 to Reach Highest Ever

Quectel and Qualcomm dominated the cellular IoT module and chipset markets, respectively.
NB-IoT is still popular among technologies but is expected to lose some market share to 4G CAT1.bis in 2023.
5G adoption to get a boost in 2024 if ASP declines to sub-$100 and 5G RedCap-based solutions become available.
China continues to lead IoT module market, followed by North America and Western Europe.

San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – March 29, 2023

Global cellular IoT module shipments grew 14% YoY in 2022 to register record high annual volume, despite macroeconomic headwinds, according to Counterpoint’s latest Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application report. The resumption of smart meter implementation, ongoing retail POS upgrades, intelligent asset tracking and the continued growth in connected cars due to progress in electrification and autonomous capabilities were some of the key drivers for the double-digit percentage growth in demand for IoT modules.

China continued to lead the global cellular IoT module market in terms of demand, followed by North America and Western Europe. Meanwhile, India was the fastest growing market, followed by Latin America and North America. Although India has a smaller base, it has immense potential. Eastern Europe was the only region that registered a decline due to the prolonged Ukraine-Russia war.

Commenting on the competitive dynamics among cellular IoT module OEMs, Senior Research Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “In 2022, Quectel was the top cellular IoT module player in China, the world’s largest market for these components. Meanwhile, China Mobile and Fibocom captured second and third place, respectively, enjoying their tremendous scale in the domestic market. Outside of China, Quectel remained the leader followed by Telit and Thales which have merged and will commence operations as a new brand, Telit Cinterion, starting Q1 2023.

Quectel increased its focus in the consolidating automotive (NAD module) segment in 2022 and secured multiple design wins with major automakers. The competition in the NAD module market is intensifying as the industry transitions to 5G connectivity. With every transition of cellular technology, we have seen the market consolidate as it becomes increasingly challenging to serve the automotive segment, which requires heavy customization but garners a lower margin.

China Mobile, the world’s largest CSP and IoT connectivity player, is becoming more vertically integrated by leveraging its massive scale to capture maximum value. It has the potential to break into the top three global cellular IoT module rankings this year. However, the company primarily operates in China and will need to expand into other verticals and markets via a robust partnership model to maintain its momentum.”

Commenting on the IoT cellular connectivity chipset player dynamics, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, “Qualcomm continued to dominate the cellular IoT chipset market in 2022 with nearly 40% shipments share. Qualcomm strengthened its position in the LTE CAT 4 and higher technologies while also maintaining a dominant position in the 5G market. Qualcomm recently launched its latest 4G CAT1.bis chipset, QCX216, to compete head-on with the LTE CAT1.bis leaders UNISOC and Eigencomm.

Qi added, “In 2022, UNISOC and ASR maintained their second and third positions due to strong adoption of the fast-growing LTE CAT1.bis and CAT 1 based modules, respectively. During the year, two new players from China, Eigencomm and Xinyi Semiconductor, broke into the top five cellular IoT chipset vendor rankings, filling the gap left by Hisilicon. Eigencomm focuses on NB-IoT and 4G CAT1.bis applications while Xinyi Semiconductor focuses on NB-IoT chipsets, both being low-cost but high-volume segments.”

Commenting on the technology landscape, Mandal added, “During 2022, NB-IoT remained the most popular LPWA IoT connectivity technology followed by the fast-growing 4G CAT 1 and 4G CAT 4 modules. Together, these contributed to 60% of the total IoT module market. For most of 2022, China was under lockdown due to the resurgence of COVID-19 which drove greater demand for products such as smart door locks, digital thermometers and wearables, mostly powered by NB-IoT.

NB-IoT saw strong adoption in China but has been less popular outside the country. In contrast, 4G CAT.1bis has been gaining traction globally and has the potential to be an alternative to several NB-IoT and existing 2G/3G applications such as smart meters. However, 5G saw slower adoption in IoT than in smartphones last year due to the higher module costs. The key initial 5G applications are PCs, CPEs and some industrial/enterprise applications.

We believe 5G will enter the mainstream market once the module ASP breaks the sub-$100 barrier and receives a further boost from the 5G RedCap commercialization in coming years.”

Commenting on the IoT market outlook for 2023, Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “Global cellular IoT module shipments (including NAD modules) are expected to register robust growth of 19% YoY in 2023. The growth of IoT module shipments in the high-value industrial segment will be key for the IoT projects that have struggled to move beyond the pilot stage and for companies that are focusing more on ROI in a tough macroeconomic environment. Nevertheless, shipments of IoT modules for the smart meter, point of sale (POS) and the automotive markets are expected to continue seeing strong growth, which will offset a slowdown in other segments.”

The market has been undergoing consolidation across the IoT value chain from module players and connectivity management to IoT platform players. This has highlighted the importance of scale, choosing the right vertical and capturing value by striking the right partnerships or developing the right capabilities. We could see some more exits and mergers in 2023 because IoT, which is very vertical driven, has been seeing volatile growth due to internal or external factors.”

For detailed research, refer to the following reports available for subscribing clients and individuals:

Counterpoint tracks 1,500+ IoT module SKUs on a quarterly basis and provides forecasts on shipments, revenues and ASP performances for 80+ IoT module vendors, 12+ chipset players and 18+ IoT applications across 10 major geographies.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

Mohit Agrawal

Anish Khajuria

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

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u-blox Marks 25 Years With Record-breaking Revenue, Strong Growth Across All Segments

u-blox’s total revenue grew 44% YoY in 2022 to reach $654 million.
The company shipped more than 100 million chipsets and modules in 2022.
u-blox’s revenue is expected to grow more than 15% YoY in 2023.

Last year saw u-blox’s 25th anniversary, and the company marked the occasion in style, registering a record-breaking revenue of $654 million in 2022, an increase of 44.3% from 2021. Despite supply chain challenges, u-blox managed to fulfill customer demands with a diversified supplier base. The company experienced strong growth across all segments and regions.

Highlights for 2022

u-blox’s operating profit increased 258% YoY in 2022 to reach $138 million, demonstrating improved operational efficiency.
The mass adoption of high precession technology in industrial automation, delivery robots, autonomous construction and agricultural equipment helped its industrial segment to grow 52% YoY and capture 63% of the company’s total revenue.
The automotive segment also grew 54% YoY due to the increased demand for navigation and infotainment applications, driven by the shift towards electric vehicles. The segment contributed 28% to the total revenue.
The consumer segment grew 34% YoY and captured 9% of the total revenue.
Among regions, the revenue from APAC increased 59% YoY propelled by high demand for various applications such as infotainment, navigation, telematics and healthcare, particularly in Japan, Australia and New Zealand. In EMEA, the revenue grew by 43% driven by the strong performance of infotainment, navigation, industrial automation and asset-tracking applications. Similarly, the revenue in the Americas grew 48% YoY fueled by the robust growth of infotainment, navigation, telematics and healthcare applications.
In 2022, modules and GNSS chips contributed 79% and 20% of the total revenue respectively. The company shipped more than 100 million modules and chips combined in 2022.

GNSS modules

u-blox is maintaining its leadership position in the GNSS module market due to its superior quality and high precision. In 2022, u-blox’s GNSS module shipments grew by 28% YoY, contributing more than half of the total module revenue. These modules are widely used in automotive and industrial applications. To further enhance its positioning solutions, it has formed partnerships with GMV to provide end-to-end safe positioning solutions for autonomous vehicles. Additionally, u-blox has secured multiple design wins, including with NXP semiconductor, NVIDIA and Li-Auto, for its ZED-F9K GNSS module for automotive applications.

Wi-Fi/BT modules

In 2022, u-blox’s Wi-Fi/BT module segment experienced a 17% YoY growth, generating a revenue of nearly $57 million. The widespread adoption of Wi-Fi 6 in healthcare and industrial applications has played a significant role in the segment’s growth. Besides, u-blox’s partnership with AWS has created two innovative modules that are pre-provisioned for secure communication with AWS via Wi-Fi and cellular IoT, simplifying access to cloud services for customers. This collaboration with AWS is expected to drive the adoption of u-blox’s high-quality modules targeted at the industrial segment, increasing the company’s market share and revenue growth potential.

Cellular IoT modules

According to Counterpoint Research’s Cellular IoT Module Tracker Service, u-blox’s cellular IoT module segment grew by 37% YoY in 2022, reaching $176 million. The launch of new products in the first half of the year played a crucial role in this growth, with its smallest 4G Cat 1 modules shipping one million units within two months of launching. Its UBX-R5 LPWA chipsets are also gaining traction among customers. In the cellular LPWA chipsets market, u-blox is competing with major players such as Qualcomm, Sony and Sequans. Sony’s latest 5G LPWA chipset may create further competition for u-blox.

GNSS chips

u-blox shipped nearly 54 million GNSS chips in 2022, which contributed $131 million in revenue. The u-blox 8 series chipsets continue to be the top-selling chipset, while the new M10 chipsets are ramping up production at a rate of one million per month. Nofence is leveraging u-blox GNSS chipsets to develop GNSS-enabled livestock collars for regenerative farming.

Outlook

The company’s future strategy is to continue to lead with innovative solutions that combine chipsets and modules with services while considering socio-economic and eco-friendly factors. The ongoing adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles will be a major growth opportunity for u-blox. With a strong order book in place, u-blox is forecasting a substantial YoY revenue increase of 6% to 16% for 2023. The average analyst estimate for the 2023 revenue is $724 million, representing an 11% increase. Considering the high demand and interest for its products in the automotive, industrial and asset-tracking segments, it is probable that u-blox’s revenue will be near the higher end of the projected range.

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STMicro – Automotive and Industrial Segments Top Performers in Q4 2022

Silicon carbide (SiC) substrate manufacturing facility in Catania to fulfill the increasing demand for SiC in EVs.
Strong demand for factory automation, energy and robotics will be the key growth drivers for the Industrial segment in 2023.
STMicro expects 2023 revenue of $16.8 billion-$17.8 billion, setting the company on course for its revenue target of more than $20 billion.

Franco-Italian chipmaker STMicroelectronics (STMicro) reported stronger-than-expected Q4 2022 net revenue growth in its Automotive and Industrial segments. Meanwhile, the company’s Personal Electronics segment faced weakness. STMicro aims to internally source a significant portion of its substrates by 2024 as it continues to ramp up the production of SiC front-end devices at its Singapore facility.

STMicro’s Q4 2022 net revenue rose 24.4% YoY to $4.42 billion, primarily driven by the strong demand in its Automotive and Industrial segments.
Gross margin improved 230bps YoY in Q4 2022 to 47.5% due to favorable pricing and improved product mix, net of hedging. However, it weakened by 20bps on a QoQ basis due to higher manufacturing input costs.

Automotive: Unprecedented demand across the Automotive segment due to the increase in EV adoption and improvement in semiconductor content. The company is also ramping up its production capacity for transistors used in EVs and has announced a partnership with Volkswagen to jointly develop a system on chip MPU. STMicro ended 2022 with 115 projects, of which 60% were from automotive customers.
Industrial: STMicro’s Industrial segment also secured some design wins in both silicon-based and wide band-gap-based devices. In 2022, the company introduced various industrial analog products for factory automation, metering, motion control and home appliances.
Personal Electronics: Ongoing trade tensions and supply-chain issues have hurt STMicro’s Personal Electronics. The company is leveraging its broad portfolio to target wearables and gaming accessories. It also has numerous smartphone design wins relating to motion sensors, wireless charging, display controllers and secure microcontrollers.

Segment revenues

Automotive and Discrete Group (ADG): Q4 2022 revenue jumped 38.4% YoY to $1,696 million helped by growth in both automotive and power discrete segments.
Analog, MEMS and Sensors Group (AMS): Q4 2022 revenue increased 7% YoY to $1,339 million with growth in analog, MEMS and imaging segments.
Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group (MDG): Q4 2022 revenue rose 29.1% YoY to $1,383 million helped by growth in both microcontrollers and RF communications segments.

Forecast: Q1 2023 net revenue is expected to be around $4.1 billion, a decrease of 5.1% QoQ, plus or minus 350 basis points. For FY2023, revenue is forecast to rise 4%-10% YoY to $16.8 billion-$17.8 billion with the primary growth expected from the Automotive and Industrial sectors.
Demand and supply: Although the demand for automotive and industrial products was high in Q4 2022, supply-chain issues still posed a hiccup with continuing shortages and capacity constraints. At the end of Q4 2022, inventory was $2.58 billion compared with $1.97 billion in the year-ago quarter. Day’s sales of inventory at Q4-end were 101 days compared with 91 days in the year-ago quarter. The Automotive segment saw an unprecedented demand across all topographies driven by increasing semiconductor and inventory replenishment. For Q1 2023, backlog is expected to be higher than that in Q1 2022.
Capital spending and investment: Capital spending in Q4 2022 was $920 million, compared with $548 million in the year-ago quarter. The company is planning to invest about $4.0 billion, of which 80% is mainly targeted towards increasing 300mm wafer production. The company is continuing to ramp up SiC front-end device production in Catania and Singapore with increased back-end manufacturing capacity in Morocco and China.

Conclusion

STMicro is benefitting from strong customer demand and continues to grow despite the difficult economic conditions. The collaboration with Soitec to produce Soitec’s SmartSiC technology for future 200mm SiC substrates will further adhere to SiC growth in EVs. With the increase in the production capacity of wafers and the growing adoption of EVs, STMicro will soon be one of the top players in the automotive space. STMicro is expected to be exposed to additional growth opportunities as it gains more exposure in GaN, RF, Sensing and IoT. Material shortages, supply disruptions and weak macro conditions may likely pose as consumer and personal market disturbances.

Despite China’s Failure to Recover in Q3 2022, Global Cellular IoT Module Market Experiences Growth

China led the global cellular IoT module market in Q3 2022 despite losing volume share. China was followed by North America and Western Europe.
Smart meter, POS, automotive, industrial and router/CPE were the top five applications in terms of volume this quarter.
Automotive, router/CPE, PC, industrial and POS were the top five applications in terms of value this quarter.
The top three technologies in terms of volume were NB-IoT, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 4. They captured more than 60% of the total volume in Q3 2022.
The top three technologies in terms of value were 5G, 4G Cat 4 and 4G Other. They captured nearly two-thirds of the total value in Q3 2022.

San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – December 27, 2022

Global cellular IoT module shipments grew by only 2% YoY in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application. China led the market followed by North America and Europe. China’s shipments decreased 8% YoY in this quarter due to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. However, some of this demand decline was offset by an increase in the residential, smart door lock, patient monitoring, registrar device, smoke detector, drone, smart meter and automotive applications. Other markets such as North America, Western Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, and Middle East and Africa witnessed healthy growth.

Commenting on the competitive landscape, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, “Quectel is leading the cellular IoT module market, followed by Fibocom, Sunsea AIoT, China Mobile and MeiG. China is dominating this market with all the top five IoT module vendors being from the country. In the past few months, we have seen some consolidation among international players, like Telit taking over Thales’ IoT business and Semtech acquiring Sierra Wireless in the IoT module space to remain resilient against Chinese module vendors. With the increasing adoption of IoT technologies in various sectors, many players will consolidate to get bigger value from this fragmented value chain.”

Commenting on the important underlying technology dynamics shaping the entire IoT ecosystem, Senior Research Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The IoT module market is undergoing changes as demand for low-end technologies like 2G and 3G declines and shifts towards 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis, where higher-end applications are upgrading from 4G to 5G. In this quarter, the top three technologies in terms of shipments – NB-IoT, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 4 – accounted for over 60% of the total shipments. However, in terms of revenue share, 5G, 4G Cat 4 and 4G Other were the top three technologies and held nearly two-thirds of the total revenue. The lower-end technologies such as NB-IoT, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis are helping connect a greater number of IoT devices, while higher-end technologies like 4G Cat 4, 4G Other and 5G are adding more value to the IoT ecosystem. This is why the automotive, router/CPE, PC and industrial segments, which rely mostly on higher-end technologies, are generating more revenue.

During this quarter, we saw some 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis-based applications being replaced with NB-IoT. Chinese NB-IoT chipset companies Eignecomm and Xinyi have improved their partnerships with module players, particularly in the domestic market. Besides, there were few options available for 4G Cat 1 bis chipsets in international markets, with Sequans being the exception. Last week, Qualcomm entered the 4G Cat 1 bis market by launching the QCX216 chipset in partnership with Quectel, Cavli Wireless and MoMAGIC. We believe that 4G Cat 1 bis technology will start to gain traction as leading IoT module and chipset players focus on it for use in massive IoT applications.”

Mandal further added, “Despite slower growth in IoT module shipments, IoT module revenue increased by 12% YoY in Q3 2022 due to a higher mix of 5G and 4G Cat 4 modules. The average selling price (ASP) of all types of 4G technologies and LTE-M continued to rise, while the ASP for 2G, 3G, 5G and NB-IoT technologies decreased. It is believed that 2023 will be a breakthrough year for 5G, and the ASP may decrease to below $100, which will help facilitate wider adoption.”

Commenting on the key application trends in the IoT space, Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “The top 10 applications in the market captured more than 80% of shipments this quarter, with the top five being smart meters, POS, automotive, industrial and router/CPE. Smoke detectors saw the fastest growth, followed by residential applications and drones. China was a driving force in the growth of all three of these fast-growing segments, fuelled by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the country. Among the top five applications, industrial and router/CPE applications saw a decrease in shipments both on a sequential and yearly basis. However, the industrial segment still presents a large opportunity due to the number of companies embarking on digital transformation projects.”

For detailed research, refer to the following reports available for subscribing clients and individuals:

Counterpoint tracks and forecasts on a quarterly basis 1,500+ IoT module SKUs’ shipments, revenues and ASP performance across 80+ IoT module vendors, 12+ chipset players, 18+ IoT applications and 10 major geographies.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

Mohit Agrawal

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Reports

Global Cellular IoT Module Shipments Grew 20% YoY in Q2 2022

After declining in Q1 2022, the global cellular IoT module market recovered in Q2 2022 despite macroeconomic headwinds and lockdowns in China, the largest IoT market.
The quarter also saw a series of consolidations in the highly competitive IoT module space.
Asset-tracking reached the highest share ever at 7% to break into the top five applications.
Smart meter, POS and industrial were the top three applications in this quarter.
NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 were the most preferred technologies for cellular IoT applications.

San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – September 20, 2022

Global cellular IoT module shipments grew 20% YoY in Q2 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application. The global cellular IoT module market continued to recover despite a tighter supply chain, COVID-19 lockdowns in China and macroeconomic headwinds. The growth was driven by the ongoing digital transformation involving potential applications around critical infrastructure and logistics catered by some key fast-growing low-tier cellular technologies such as Cat-1 and NB-IoT. Further, module players modified their product offerings, striking partnerships across the value chain, from newer connectivity solution providers to acquiring some key competitors, as the IoT industry enters a very exciting growth phase.

China retained its position as the world’s largest IoT market, contributing to more than half of the demand despite the lockdowns. The country’s cellular IoT module market recovered slightly from previous months this year, driven by lockdown-triggered applications like smart locks, surveillance systems and routers. The North American and western European markets grew steadily and held their second and third positions respectively in the global cellular IoT module market. Again, India was the fastest growing IoT module market (+264% YoY), albeit growing on a lower base, driven by smart meter, telematics, POS and automotive applications.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Research Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The IoT module market is going through a critical phase where the Chinese brands have become bigger, making it very difficult for international brands to grow in silos. As a result, we have seen the first wave of market consolidation with Telit acquiring Thales’ cellular IoT module business as well as acquiring IoT solutions design house Mobilogix. Also, during the quarter, Semtech, one of the big component vendors and the key chipset provider for the proprietary LoRa-based IoT network, acquired leading cellular IoT and router vendor Sierra Wireless to build an end-to-end wireless IoT portfolio. This kickstarts an exciting phase where the Western vendors are trying to become more ‘integrated’ to capture more value across the value chain, even though the IoT market is a blue-ocean opportunity.”

Mandal added, “With six out of the top 10 IoT module vendors being from China and with the rising geopolitical competition and data privacy concerns, international players see an opportunity to consolidate and carve out a dichotomy in this segment. Further, having a robust portfolio and post-sales support is the key. Telit, Thales, u-blox and Sierra Wireless improving their offerings over the last 12 months has been a step in the right direction. With consolidation, these vendors can garner scale and some competitive edge to at least compete well on pricing and value against the competition”

Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Market summary

The top three players accounted for more than half of the market. Interestingly, Quectel’s shipment share was equal to that of the remaining players in the top 10 list.

Quectel: Quectel’s module shipments increased 47% YoY, further increasing its gap with the remaining players. During the quarter, Quectel launched 4G Cat 4 smart modules SC200E and SG150H, based on Qualcomm and UNISOC chipsets respectively. Furthermore, Quectel unveiled iSIM-supported LPWA module BG773A-GL with the help of Kigen, through which it will be able to target M2M applications such as POS, smart metering, asset tracking and wearable devices.
Fibocom: The second largest module vendor, Fibocom, saw 12% YoY growth in its module shipments. Nearly 60% of its module shipments came from the China market. Fibocom has already entered partnerships with Qualcomm, MediaTek, UNISOC, Sequans and Autotalks to increase its share in international markets. This can help Fibocom bridge some of its wide gap with Quectel in the international IoT module market.
MeiG: After a slow Q1 2022 due to China lockdowns, MeiG registered growth which helped it to enter the top three IoT module ranks globally. While focusing on higher-end IoT module applications, MeiG is expanding into the fast-growing 4G Cat 1 bis market, targeting applications such as POS, industrial, asset tracking, smart meter and enterprise. MeiG is also diversifying its supplier portfolio. It has partnered with fast-growing 4G chipset vendor ASR for the 4G Cat 4 module market, especially for the highly competitive China market and other low-cost international markets.
China Mobile: China Mobile maintained its fourth position in the global cellular IoT module market by catering to its huge existing and prospective customer base and extensive cellular network. The operator partnered with Xinyi Semiconductor for focusing on lower-end applications. This has helped both to target 2G-to-4G transitioning IoT applications. China Mobile’s growing 5G footprint and partnerships across the value chain will help the world’s largest operator to rapidly scale its end-to-end 5G IoT solutions in the coming quarters.
Sunsea: Sunsea (SIMCom + Longsung) has been consistently improving its performance over the last 10 quarters. Sunsea is following a strategy similar to that of other Chinese players to offer Qualcomm-based solutions for the international market and MediaTek/UNISOC/ASR/Xinyi-based solutions for the homegrown China market. Sunsea added ASR as a partner besides Qualcomm to cater to the increasing demand and offer affordable pricing in China.
Telit: Telit is the first non-China player in the global IoT module vendors’ rankings. Telit is focussing on LPWA-Dual Mode, 4G Cat 1 and LTE-M technologies to target applications such as industrial, healthcare, asset tracking, router/CPE and energy. The vendor has launched 4G Cat 1 bis industrial grade module LE910R1 with 2G fallback to target the APAC and EMEA markets. With the sunset of 2G and 3G technology, this module can be used as a substitute for low-to-mid-end applications. After the acquisition of Thales, Telit has the potential to emerge as the largest module vendor outside of China and eventually match Quectel in scale.
Among other players, Neoway performed well. It was the fastest growing in QoQ terms (+162%) among top vendors. Besides China, India is turning out to be an important market.
u-blox recorded a strong quarter by remodeling and redesigning its products and clearing backlogs. The demand was strong for u-blox in industrial, automotive and healthcare applications.

Commenting on the key connectivity technology trends in the IoT space, Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “The top five technologies, including NB-IoT, 4G Cat 1, 4G Cat 4, 4G Cat 1 bis and LPWA-Dual Mode captured more than 80% of the shipments in this quarter. We are witnessing increasing shipments of 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis modules driven by the sunset of 2G and 3G technologies and higher demand in low-to-mid-end applications. Some module players are still shipping 2G modules to cater to specific low-cost applications in some emerging markets, like Africa, Asia and eastern Europe. The 5G IoT module shipments remain steady with prices still high and many projects still in pilot stages. It will take at least a couple of years to reach an inflection point. We expect the second half of 2023 to see a ramp-up for the 5G IoT modules with good pan-country 5G coverage and scale.”

The top five applications in Q2 2022 – smart meter, POS, industrial, router/CPE and asset tracking – captured more than half of the total IoT module market. Compared to the previous quarter, significant improvements were seen in the router/CPE and residential markets. The automotive connectivity market did not show much traction due to the poor performance of the automotive industry in China during this quarter.

For detailed research, refer to the following reports available for subscribing clients and individuals:

Counterpoint tracks and forecasts on a quarterly basis 1,500+ IoT module SKUs’ shipment, revenue and ASP performance across 80+ IoT module vendors, 12+ chipset players, 18+ IoT applications and 10 major geographies.

Background

Analyst Contacts

Soumen Mandal

Mohit Agrawal

Counterpoint Research

press@counterpointresearch.com

Related Reports:

u-blox Continues Strong Growth in H1 2022

u-blox recorded an excellent H1 2022 with $311.9 million in total revenues, an increase of 47% from H1 2021 despite macroeconomic headwinds. The demand and interest in u-blox products remained strong across all markets and business segments. The strategy of remodeling and redesigning its products has worked for u-blox in dealing with specific shortages. This time, u-blox changed module design a lot to cut component shortages and clear backlogs.

H1 2022 highlights

u-blox’s gross profit increased 53.9% YoY in H1 2022 to reach $152.4 million.
The industrial segment captured 61% of the company’s total revenue and grew 62% YoY due to higher demand for automation and healthcare applications. The automotive segment also grew 62% YoY and its revenue contributed 28% to the total revenue. The consumer segment grew 18% YoY and captured 10% of the total revenue. In this segment, the growth mainly came from consumer telematics applications.
Americas and APAC regions grew more than 50% YoY while EMEA grew 30%. This growth was driven by industry-focused solutions for automation, mobility, healthcare and network applications. APAC’s growth despite China lockdowns was a testament to u-blox’s strong pipeline of design wins.
In the first half of 2022, modules and GNSS chips contributed 81% and 18% of the total revenue respectively. The module volume grew by 34.3% YoY in H1 2022 to reach nearly 27 million.

The ASP of modules and chipsets increased 20% and 46% YoY respectively due to supply chain constraints and product mix-ups.

GNSS modules

u-blox’s GNSS module shipments grew 56% YoY in H1 2022, contributing more than half of the total module revenue. The good quality and position accuracy of its GNSS products helped u-blox grow this market significantly. This year, it launched the smallest GNSS module, MIA-M10, with its latest technology targeting size-constrained applications like asset-tracking devices, pet trackers, livestock trackers and wearables. Xiaoan selected the u-blox M10 product to enhance the positioning performance of shared motorcycles and electric bicycles.

Wi-Fi/BT modules

In H1 2022, u-blox’s Wi-Fi/BT module segment grew 24% YoY to reach a revenue of nearly $30 million. In short-range radio modules (Wi-Fi and Bluetooth), u-blox continued to expand its capabilities. It launched Wi-Fi 6-based modules, which are ideal for industrial, smart home and mass-market applications.

Cellular IoT modules

In recent times, we have seen international module players merging their cellular IoT businesses to become more competitive in this space. u-blox is slowly recovering its cellular IoT module business. In H1 2022, u-blox’s cellular IoT module segment grew 36% compared to H1 2021, according to Counterpoint Research’s Cellular IoT Module Tracker Service. u-blox provided flexibility to its customers by launching new products. However, we expect u-blox will focus more on GNSS products and services compared to cellular IoT modules, considering growth opportunities.

GNSS chips

The quality of u-blox’s GNSS chipsets is far better than other players, which is helping u-blox witness continued growth in this market. With the rising demand for positioning and location-based ecosystems, u-blox will be able to record a multi-fold increase in its revenue by targeting applications like passenger and commercial vehicles, asset tracking, micro-mobility, surveillance, industrial and healthcare.

Market outlook

The steady expansion of u-blox’s production capacity and strong bookings resulted in this record revenue in H1 2022. Within the first half of 2022, its order book value doubled compared to the end of 2021, which makes u-blox well-positioned to continue to grow revenues and improve profitability. It is already managing well the supply constraint situation. We expect u-blox’s revenue will grow nearly 50% YoY in 2022.

Related Posts

Can Semtech’s Acquisition of Sierra Wireless Change Offerings in IoT Space?

US-based semiconductor manufacturer and LoRa pioneer Semtech announced a $1.2-billion deal on Wednesday to acquire Canada-based cellular IoT module and device supplier Sierra Wireless. The deal comes after last week’s merger deal between Telit and Thales’ cellular IoT business. The IoT module market has entered a consolidation phase and we can expect a few more announcements in the near future.

The IoT module market is fragmented. Many brands are struggling to improve performance, scale up products and face competitors. Some players are moving towards services, which comprise 77% value of the total IoT value chain, for better revenue opportunities instead of sticking to hardware only. For example, u-blox acquired Thingstream in 2020 to generate more revenue and offer complete IoT solutions, from chipset to cloud. In some cases, companies are trying to build up their own supply chain ecosystem through integration. For example, Quectel entered the IoT antenna space last year. In the future, we may witness some large players offload their cellular IoT module business which is not a core business for them.

The Semtech-Sierra Wireless deal is an important announcement for the IoT space. It can change offerings in the IoT industry. Here are some key takeaways from this deal from Counterpoint analysts:

Sierra Wireless is mainly focused on the cellular business, whereas Semtech is focused on the non-cellular business. The ultra-low power benefits of LoRa and higher-bandwidth capabilities of cellular networks will bring innovation to IoT use cases. They can also solve problems faced in massive IoT adoption across all segments.
International brands such as Sierra Wireless, Telit, Thales and u-blox were struggling to compete with Chinese module vendors such as Quectel, Fibocom and MeiG in terms of scale and bringing innovation to the field.
Sierra Wireless divested its auto business in 2020 to focus on the router/CPE segment but the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and ransomware attack hit Sierra Wireless’ efforts to regain its market share last year. Interestingly, the automotive spin-off business was acquired by a consortium led by Chinese module vendor Fibocom.
We also witnessed a corner-room change at Sierra Wireless to revive brand glory when Phil Brace replaced Kent Thexton as the CEO in July 2021.
This year, Sierra Wireless divested its Omnilink offender monitoring business to Sentinel for $37.6 million. This was not a core business for the company and it offloaded Omnilink to focus more on the services industry. Product segments can generate revenue for one time, whereas services can generate revenue on a recurring basis. That is why we have been seeing many IoT module players shifting towards IoT platforms, cloud and services.
According to its chip-to-cloud strategy for IoT adoption, Semtech aims to offer solutions across the IoT value chain. However, it has no good presence in the module, device and platform categories. Moreover, LoRa isn’t suitable for each IoT application. LoRa and cellular technologies may complement each other in serving segments across the IoT value chain.
Sierra Wireless will bring a rich experience of cellular IoT modules, cellular gateways and cloud service platform to Semtech, while Semtech will offer LoRa chips, LoRa gateways and cloud services. In the future, we may see more hybrid cellular+LoRa solutions instead of dual cellular module-based solutions. In this type of application, the cellular module can be used for data communication and LoRa can be used for device management and other applications where a low payload is required. This can change offerings in the IoT module space and help Semtech increase its market share in the cellular space too.
Semtech already has a good hold on smart meter, smart city, industrial, smart grid and asset-tracking applications through LoRa solutions. The addition of Sierra Wireless products will help Semtech target high-end markets such as security cameras, gateways, fleet and PC.

Outlook

The combined entity is looking for a 10x growth opportunity to reach a $10-billion serviceable addressable market (SAM) by 2027. To achieve this figure, IoT platform and cloud services will play a pivotal role as these can contribute revenue on a recurring basis. At the same time, Semtech needs to be careful not to disrupt the standalone LoRa ecosystem partners and customers. We believe cellular+LoRa-based industrial applications such as security, smart campus, factory and private networks will be a big opportunity for Semtech.

Quectel, Fibocom & Sunsea Capture Half the Cellular IoT Module Market in Q1 2022

Quectel, Foxconn, China Mobile, WNC, Telit, MeiG, Sequans, Gosuncn were the fastest growing vendors in Q1 2022.
Smart Meters, POS, industrial, automotive and telematics were the top five applications in the quarter.
China, North America, and Western Europe accounted for over 75% of the volume.

San Diego, Buenos Aires, London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – June 23, 2022

Global cellular IoT module shipments grew 35% YoY in Q1 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application. India was the fastest growing market (59% YoY) followed by Middle East Africa, Japan, North America, China, Western Europe and Korea, all registering healthy double-digit growth. However, the largest IoT module market, China, saw demand dip by 11% QoQ due to the new wave of COVID-19 and resulting lockdowns.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Research Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “The cellular IoT module market remains competitive, but there is growing consolidation. For example, Quectel, Fibocom and Sunsea accounted for more than half of the global IoT cellular module shipment volumes for the first time ever. This highlights the growing influence, expertise, and scale of these Chinese vendors in the fast-growing global market.

Quectel’s cellular IoT module shipments grew 77% YoY in Q1 2022 to a healthy 38% of global volume. Quectel now ships more modules than the next ten vendors combined. Quectel continues to dominate geographically with leadership in seven out of ten key markets globally. Quectel commands a strong position in 4G and NB-IoT modules. Quectel is expanding its 5G portfolio and aims to gain scale as the technology ramps.

Fibocom’s shipments grew by 24% YoY benefitting from the surging demand for 4G Cat 1 bis modules, which is one of the fastest growing segments and led by Fibocom globally. 4G Cat 1 bis is becoming a key technology targeting the 2G and 3G IoT installed base and similar applications such as POS and telematics. Fibocom is also heavily focusing on 5G AIoT based smart modules to maintain a lead in high value applications.

Sunsea AIoT which includes the brands SIMcom and Longsung, has cemented its place in the top three brands. It focuses on 4G Cat-1 and NB-IoT modules. China continues to be the key market for Sunsea; it will need to diversify if it wants to scale and grow at the same pace as its peers.

Telit captured 4.6% share and is the only non-Chinese brand in the top five players. Demand for its modules remains healthy in North and Latin America. The module mix shifted slightly with increasing demand for legacy 2G and 3G modules offsetting some volume decline in 4G modules due to supply chain constraints. Telit leads the Latin America market and is among the top three vendors in North America.

China Mobile, Sierra Wireless and u-blox improved their market share in Q1. The world’s largest EMS, Foxconn, also entered our top ten module players list with growing demand in the CPE and connected PC segments. The relationship with top device makers, potential EV business growth and a focus on 5G technology, should help Foxconn to grow in this sector in the mid- to long-term.”

Commenting on cellular IoT technology evolution, Associate Director Ethan Qi, said, “There is a significant shift happening in the adoption and proliferation of different cellular IoT access technologies, from LPWA (NB-IoT, LTE-M) to 4G (Cat 1, Cat 1 bis) to 4G Cat 3+, 5G and upcoming 5G Redcap. This is driven not only by the wide range of different applications, but also regional and operator adoption dynamics. NB-IoT is considered a key and fast-growing technology for low power IoT applications and has been widely adopted in China and some other parts of the world. Whereas LTE-M is preferred in markets such as Japan, Australia, North America, and parts of Europe. However, we are also witnessing many regions and operators favouring 4G Cat 1 and Cat 1 bis for some mature and some new IoT applications. While most of these technologies are complimentary, operators still have to selectively invest in one over others, depending on the IoT verticals of most importance to them.

As we see 5G rolling out, many of the advanced IoT applications such as automotive, router CPEs, PCs will move to 5G from advanced 4G technologies. Furthermore, the advent of 5G Redcap will also supplant some legacy technologies such as 3G/4G in some IoT applications. So, the entire IoT ecosystem has a wide array of cellular access technology solutions to choose from depending on the applications, data requirements, cost constraints and operator dynamics in a particular market.

The technology mix also shapes the overall cellular IoT module Average Selling Price (ASP), which declined by 3% annually in Q1 due to an increasing mix of lower cost 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis modules. Furthermore, the 4G Cat 4+ modules are still facing supply chain constraints and the % share of 5G modules remains small contributing to the overall ASP decline. We believe the 4G module supply chain issues will moderate later this year, but the falling ASP for 5G modules will provide an option for device OEMs to either select 4G or 5G modules moving forward.”

Commenting on which IoT applications are hottest, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “Cellular IoT powers a diverse set of applications and the number of things that can be connected to the internet continues to rise.

Smart meters, POS and industrial were the top three applications in the global cellular IoT module market in Q1 2022. These segments are contributing to nearly 40% of total cellular IoT module shipments.

Smart meter projects have restarted in many markets post-COVID and the segment is seeing strong growth with shipments doubling compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, demand in the router/CPE segment is steadily growing as the supply constraints lessen and demand increases for FWA CPEs for the work-from-home segment, and 4G/5G upgrade projects increase for enterprise-grade routers across retail, factories, offices, etc.”

For detailed research, refer to the following reports available for subscribing clients and also for individual subscription:

Counterpoint tracks and forecasts on a quarterly basis 1500+ IoT module SKUs’ shipments, revenues, and ASP performance across 80+ IoT module vendors, 12+ chipset players, 18+ IoT applications and 10 major geographies.

Background

Analyst Contacts:

Soumen Mandal

Ethan Qi

Neil Shah

Counterpoint Research

press(at)counterpointresearch.com

Related Reports:

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