Although PC demand is expected to gradually recover in H2 2023, full-year shipments are set to decline by double-digit percentages.
Windows 11, commercial/flagship models and replacement cycles are key 2024 growth drivers.
Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – April 17, 2023
Global PC shipments fell 28% YoY in Q1 2023
Global PC shipments dropped 28% YoY in Q1 2023 to hit 56.7 million units, the lowest quarterly numbers in the past 10 years, excluding Q1 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak interrupted manufacturing and production. The Q1 2023 decline was due to the continued delay in demand pickup amid an inventory correction during the quarter. However, we are cautiously optimistic and believe the overall PC market will start gradually recovering in the latter half of Q2 2023 which will pave the way for comparably stronger momentum in H2 2023.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2023
The last mile of inventory digestion since mid-2022
The PC and PC components’ inventory issue has remained for more than half a year due to frozen demand and aggressive double booking. As we have already entered the post-pandemic era and are settling in with the new work environment and lifestyle, the PC industry has also adapted a lot with incremental demand from each consumer. However, increased devices per person do not imply continuous high-level demand for PCs, especially during economic downturns. Fortunately, based on feedback from OEM/ODMs, we are close to the end of PC inventory digestion which is expected by H1 2023. PC OEMs could begin executing their next step of PC strategies as consumer demand is gradually increasing.
Major OEMs, especially Apple, had a tough time in Q1 2023
Lenovo remained the world’s largest PC vendor in Q1 2023, despite a huge decline in shipments during the quarter. The company registered shipments of 12.8 million units in Q1 2023 and a market share of 23%. HP reported a relatively narrow adjustment in the quarter off a lower base in the year-ago period, maintained its second rank and retained its 21% market share. Dell’s better-than-expected performance in the US helped the company rank third in terms of global PC shipments during the quarter with a 17% market share. Apple suffered the most, marking a 38% YoY decline in shipments due to a higher base in the year-ago period and a longer replacement cycle.
We foresee slow-paced demand recovery
It is widely expected that PC demand will recover in H2 2023. PC OEMs are also looking forward to a pickup in demand following the inventory digestion. Although we did say that demand will recover post-inventory normalization, we are afraid demand recovery will take slightly longer to start accelerating. On the other hand, we believe the rate of demand recovery will vary across different categories. Based on our checks, demand for commercial segments and premium/flagship consumer product lines will likely recover faster than others and are expected to sell better in H2 2023. Arm laptops continue to be relatively vulnerable due to a lower shipment base a year ago and are more eye-catching to customers.
Inventory Correction Continues while YoY decline improves
Another YoY double-digit percentage shipment contraction is expected in 2023
Although OEM vendors reported another quarterly shipment decline in Q1 2023, they maintain a cautiously-optimistic tone for PC demand in H2 2023. We further adjust our 2023 global PC shipments forecasts and expect to see a double-digit percentage shipment decline throughout 2023 from the original high single-digit percentage shipment decline at the end of 2022. Additionally, we expect a bright 2024 due to renewal demand from Chromebook and Windows 11, coupled with a replacement cycle since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Global PC shipments fell 27.8% YoY in Q4 2022 to reach 65.2 million units.
For the full year of 2022, the shipments declined 15% YoY.
Macroeconomic headwinds, increasing inflation pressure and frozen PC demand affected the global PC market in 2022.
Soft demand in H1 2023 will cause heavy pressure on shipments. Therefore, we do not see annual shipment growth in 2023.
Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – January 19, 2023
Global PC shipments left Q4 2022 with a record-high YoY decline of 27.8% to reach 65.2 million units, according to Counterpoint Research’s data. Although inventory levels of several OEMs and ODMs likely peaked in Q3 2022, the year-end season failed to accelerate the PC shipment momentum in Q4. At 286 million units, the total PC shipments for 2022 also reflect a muted global PC demand with four consecutive quarters of YoY shipment declines. Therefore, we are not expecting a decent rebound in H1 2023.
Macroeconomic headwinds, increasing inflation pressure and frozen PC demand affected the global PC market in 2022, with shipments declining 15% YoY. Besides, consumers who bought new PCs were still enjoying the latest models, whereas enterprises were working more carefully on their budgets. Also, the lack of appealing functions and financial support could not bring in incremental demand in 2022, not to mention the aggressive inventory digestion target of OEMs since H1 2022.
Record YoY Shipment Decline in Q4 2022
Source: Counterpoint Research
Lenovo continued to lead the market in Q4 2022 but with a flattish 23.7% share. Mild inventory correction dragged the company’s performance amid a lackluster holiday season. Its shipments declined 17% YoY in 2022 to take a 23.7% market share. We expect Lenovo’s shipment decline to normalize along with demand revival in the Chinese market in 2023.
HP secured its second place in Q4 2022 with a 20.3% share. Its shipments declined 29% YoY during the quarter but it was the only major PC OEM to report positive sequential shipment growth in Q4, thanks to improving shipment performance in North America and a lower base in Q3. HP had the largest shipment pullback in 2022 due to weak consumer demand across the globe. The company ultimately recorded a below 20% market share in 2022. But we expect a meaningful share rebound in 2023.
Dell’s 16.7% market share was the lowest in the past seven quarters largely due to an enterprise demand slowdown. As the economic situation remains weak, the company is not expected to see rapid pick-up for commercial models in 2023, which is crucial for Dell to narrow the market share gap with HP. Therefore, we may see pressures on Dell’s share (17.4% in 2022) and shipment performance in 2023.
Apple’s comparatively tiny 3% YoY shipment decline in Q4 2022 helped the company close the book with a flattish shipment volume performance for 2022. Apple kept gaining market share at the expense of x86-based vendors and recorded a double-digit share in the second half of 2022 and 9.4% in the full year. Arm-based M-series models helped the company weather the slump cycle in both consumer and commercial devices in 2022.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q4 2022
Source: Counterpoint Research
Windows on Arm a key focus in 2023
Despite near-term headwinds, we could still see global PC shipment volumes higher than pre-COVID levels in the coming years, thanks to the continuous work environment and lifestyle changes and delayed procurement from both consumer and commercial sectors after H1 2023. Consumer demand will likely see gradual rebound in H2 2023 followed by a slower warm-up in enterprise procurement. Soft demand in the first half will cause heavy pressure on global PC shipments. Therefore, we do not see annual shipment growth in 2023.
Eying Apple’s M-series success, Qualcomm’s Arm-based Oryon CPU will likely enter the market and heat up Windows-on-Arm momentum in 2023. We see mid-single-digit YoY shipment growth for Arm-based laptops compared to the global laptop market’s high-single-digit shipment decline in 2023.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – October 25, 2022
Global PC shipments fell 15.5% YoY in Q3 2022 to reach 71.1 million units recording another wave of huge YoY declines after the severe annual and sequential falls in Q2, according to Counterpoint Research data. The Q3 2022 decline was largely due to demand weakness across both consumer and commercial markets, which was mainly driven by global inflation. Despite components shortage issues being largely resolved, OEMs and ODMs are holding a relatively conservative view on Q4 2022 and first half of 2023.
The lull in PC demand continued in the quarter despite broad promotional activities from major OEMs, especially for consumer product lines. In addition, inventory digestion processes have been activated to deal with abnormally high levels as we enter the second half of the year. Although it is the season of peak consumer device sales, PC OEMs believe the destocking process will continue into 2023. Based on our conversations with supply chain members, especially with components suppliers, the largest inventory numbers were in Q3 2022 and will likely begin to decline in coming quarters but there is uncertainty within the supply chain on when shipment growth will restart.
Global PC Inventory Accumulation Since 2022
Source: Counterpoint Research
Lack of consumer demand in the back-to-school season, shrinking enterprise purchasing due to economic uncertainty and increasing promotional events all created a drag on Average Selling Price (ASP) growth momentum and also impacted PC market revenue.
Apple reported a counter-market 7% YoY shipment growth amid muted market momentum, thanks to its new product launch in late Q2 with shipments refilled after the China lockdowns in Q2 that interrupted ODM manufacturing schedules. Meanwhile, Asus reported a 9% YoY shipment decline in the quarter, reflecting a relatively resilient performance due to its enterprise focused strategy, in line with management’s target of outperforming shipment in 2022.
Lenovo booked a 16% YoY decline, largely in-line with the global PC market, consumer demand weakness was partly offset by enterprise spending. Its 23.7% market share remains flattish compared to last year, reflecting Lenovo’s strong position efforts to cope with a shaky market.
HP took an 18% share in Q3 with 12.7 million unit shipments. This is the second quarter of lower than 20% market share by HP since 2016, largely due to its higher consumer mix, which meant it exited Q3 with a 26.5% YoY decline.
Dell also reported more than a 20% YoY shipment decline with and 17% market share. Its 12 million units were a bit higher than Q3 2020, right before Dell began to benefit from working style changes post the initial waves of COVID.
Global PC Shipment by Vendor, Q3 2022
PC market unlikely to grow until H2 2023
Overall, global PC shipments in the second half of 2022 will still be comparatively higher than the level before Covid broke out. However, Chip maker AMD claimed that PC market weakness already caused negative impacts to its results and outlook; while the management of Taiwan OEMs Acer and Asus, both shared their views that the PC industry will not recover until H2 2023.
Looking into 2023, the sky is still covered by dark clouds. We are also adjusting our 2022 shipment forecast to a 13% YoY decline on soft PC demand. Among all PC product segments, we believe Arm-based PCs and gaming PCs are poised to weather the market downturn best, with the help from Apple’s M-series offerings as well as incremental R&D efforts from chip makers and the wider ecosystem.
This year’s edition of Internationale Funkausstellung (IFA), Europe’s biggest consumer electronics show, showcased some interesting product announcements and trends that will set new standards across the consumer electronics ecosystem. New product technologies on display at the show held in Berlin from September 2 to 6 included bigger screen size OLED and Mini LED TVs, bigger and better soundbars, foldable laptops and bendable TVs, digital charging cases, and smartwatches with more features, among others.
The chief focus of the show this year revolved around major consumer electronics segments like smartphones, smart TVs, TWS, tablets, home appliances and smartwatches. Big players such as LG, Sony, Lenovo, Huawei, Asus, Jabra, Fitbit and TCL launched new and amazing products at the event to enhance user experiences. We give below the major CIoT announcements at IFA 2022:
Foldable laptops by Asus and Lenovo
Asus Zenbook 17 Fold OLED
Asus launched the Zenbook 17 Fold OLED, a foldable laptop that has a 17” screen when expanded and a 12.5” screen when folded.
The device comes with an Asus ErgoSense Bluetooth keyboard and touchpad to make it easy to work with.
Once the magnetic keyboard is on screen, you can use it as a regular laptop. When expanded, it can have an expanded tablet.
The devices are equipped with a 1080p OLED display, 12th generation Intel Core i7 processors, Harman Kardon-certified quad speakers with Dolby Atmos support, Wi-Fi 6E connectivity, and two Thunderbolt 4 ports.
Priced at $3,499, the Asus Zenbook 17 Fold is an expensive laptop.
The laptop will be beneficial for people who travel a lot and need a large screen, or those who work in creative fields. The device can also be used for entertainment, as it supports both Dolby Atmos and Vision.
Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Fold 2022
Lenovo launched the 2022 version of its ThinkPad X1 Fold (review), an upgrade from the 2020 version. The latest version has smaller bezels, a 16.3” screen when unfolded and a 12” screen when folded.
The folding laptop comes with a 1080p OLED display and has Windows 11 OS.
The device comes with a detachable keyboard, which when attached turns the device into a 12” laptop.
The laptop is equipped with 12th-generation Intel Core i7 processors, with up to 1TB of storage and up to 32GB of RAM.
The Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Fold is priced at $2,499 for the base variant and $2,999 with a keyboard and a pen.
New smartwatches, smart bands and smart glasses from leading brands
Garmin Venu Sq2 and Venu Sq2 Music
Garmin launched two new smartwatches — Venu Sq2 and Venu Sq2 Music edition.
Both the smartwatches come with a 1.41” AMOLED screen, Gorilla Glass 3 protection, 5ATM water resistance and support for both Android and iOS.
They also support contactless payments through Garmin Pay and have smart notifications for text, email and other alerts.
Both have the Health Snapshot feature which lets users have a two-minute session and record health metrics such as heart rate, heart rate variability, blood oxygen level, respiration, and stress.
The Venu Sq2 is priced at $249.99, whereas the Venu Sq2 Music is priced at $299.99.
The Venu Sq2 Music offers built-in storage for offline music playback from streaming services. It can store up to 500 songs.
Both smartwatches are compact and lightweight. They are among the best in terms of features and come in a low price range.
Huawei Watch D
Huawei launched the Watch D, already launched for the Chinese market earlier this year.
The watch comes with IP68 certification, AMOLED display and over 70 sports modes with a battery life of around seven days.
The Watch D has advanced health monitoring features, such as blood pressure, ECG, skin temperature and blood oxygen tracking.
The Watch D will be priced at €449 in Europe.
The Watch D is more expensive than its competitors, but with additional health features, it could stand out.
Fitbit Inspire 3, Versa 4 and Sense 2
The Fitbit Versa 4 is a smartwatch thinner and lighter than the Versa 3. It also has a tactile button, making it easier to operate. The Versa 4 will have a revamped Fitbit OS with Google Wallet, and Google Maps with turn-by-turn directions. The watch has 40 sports modes, and Sleep Profile to analyze sleep.
The Fitbit Sense 2 is a lighter and thinner version of the Sense series. It has continuous EDA (cEDA), which measures skin perspiration response and signs of stress, and is used in conjunction with the Heart Rate Sensor.
The Inspire 3 smart band is Fitbit’s entry-level and lowest-cost device. It has a color display, blood oxygen monitor and Fitbit features such as Active Zone Minutes and sleep tracking, and supports 10 days of battery life.
It has an improved display and newer features. The mechanical button offers improved functionality. The Inspire 3 will offer more choices to the consumer in the entry-level smart band market.
Amazfit GTR 4, GTS 4 and GTS 4 Mini
Amazfit launched the GTR 4 and GTS 4 smartwatches.
The GTR 4 features a 1.43” AMOLED screen, whereas the GTS 4 has a 1.75” AMOLED screen. Both the watches are 5ATM resistant and feature 150+ sports modes.
Both the smartwatches have a new feature called BioTracker 4.0 optical sensor, which offers improved heart rate tracking, and an upgraded GPS for more accurate route tracking. Besides, they have more than 150 sports modes and can be connected via Bluetooth and Wi-Fi.
Both the GTR 4 and GTS 4 are priced at €199.
Amazfit also launched the GTS 4 Mini, a smaller and cheaper version of the GTS 4. The GTS 4 Mini has a 1.65” AMOLED display, 120+ sports modes, and health and fitness tracking capabilities, such as heart rate and SpO2. The watch is priced at €99.
The GTR 4 and GTS 4 have a dual-band GPS antenna which improves the route tracking capability. Besides, the two have features like fall detection and offline voice assistant that will attract users.
TCL NXTWEAR S
TCL launched the NXTWEAR S smart glasses which offer enhanced comfort and conveniences. The smart glasses have a dual 1080p Micro OLED display, front and correction lenses.
The wheel on the left temple can be used to adjust volume, whereas the one on the right can be used to adjust brightness and 2D/3D mode switch.
The NXTWEAR S will be available from Q4 2022 in selected regions.
Lenovo Glasses T1
Lenovo launched the T1 smart glasses, which let users connect devices like PCs, tablets and smartphones with USB C and watch content on a bigger screen. The glasses have a Micro OLED display, swappable noise clips, adjustable arms, and support prescription lenses.
The glasses have 1920X1080 resolution with a 60Hz refresh rate and are TUV Low Blue Light certified to reduce strain on the eyes. The glasses also have inbuilt speakers.
TWS category saw some interesting launches
Jabra Elite 5
Jabra launched the Elite 5, a mid-range offering and placed between the Elite 3 and Elite 7 Pro.
The Elite 5 features hybrid noise cancellation and is powered by the Qualcomm QCC3050 chipset. It also has an IP55 rating, 6mm drivers and support for Google Assistant and Alexa. Other features include the 6-mic call and wind-noise suppression technologies for a better call experience.
Another interesting feature is Spotify Tap Playback, which allows users to launch Spotify and pick up from where they left off with a single button press.
The Jabra Elite 5 is priced and £149.
JBL Tour PRO 2
JBL launched the Tour PRO 2, a TWS with the world’s first charging case having a touchscreen display.
The case features a 1.45” LED touchscreen to manage music, customize earbuds, receive calls and manage notifications. The TWS features a 10mm driver, ANC and JBL Spatial Sound.
The Tour PRO 2 comes with a 10mm audio driver and is Bluetooth 5.3 compatible. It lasts 10 hours, and 40 hours with the case.
The charging case is the first of its kind in the industry. It lets users control most of the functionalities of the case, instead of touching their smartphones.
The JBP Tour PRO 2 is priced at €249.
Tablets saw new models from leading brands
HONOR Pad 8
HONOR launched the Pad 8. It has a 12” 2K display and runs on Android 12.
The tablet is powered by the Snapdragon 680 4G, 7250mAh battery and a Type-C port.
The device makes it possible to operate phone and tablet on the same screen. The smart multi-view feature allows up to four windows at the same time.
Huawei MatePad Pro 11
Huawei launched its newest tablet, the MatePad Pro 11. The tablet has an 11” OLED display with120Hz refresh rate and 2560×1600 resolution. It also features Huawei Pencil, Huawei Notes and multitasking.
The tablet has six speakers and four mics, a dual rear camera with a 13MP main camera and an 8MP wide-angle camera, and a 16MP front camera.
The MatePad Pro 11 will run on HarmonyOS 3, with a configuration of 8GB RAM and 128GB storage.
The tablet is priced at €649. Early-bird offers include free Huawei M-Pencil Elegant Edition and a folio cover.
Nokia T21
Nokia launched its newest tablet, the Nokia T21, at IFA 2022. The tablet has a 10.4” 2K display with a 60Hz refresh rate. It has 128GB of internal storage which can be expanded to 512GB. The rear and front cameras are 8MP.
The tablet comes with two years of Android updates and three years of security updates.
The Nokia T21 is a compact size tab that will attract those looking for a smaller-screen device.
Lenovo Tab P11 (2nd Gen) and P11 Pro (2nd Gen)
Lenovo launched two new tabs at IFA 2022 — P11 (2nd Gen) and P11 Pro (2nd Gen).
The P11 Pro (2nd Gen) is an 11.2” OLED display tab with 120Hz refresh rate and Dolby Vision support. The P11 Pro comes with a detachable keyboard with a built-in trackpad, and an optional Lenovo Precision Pen 3. The tab has quad JBL speakers and Dolby Atmos.
The P11 (2nd Gen) is an 11.5” 2K display tab with a 120Hz refresh rate. The tab has quad speakers with Dolby Atmos. Along with the tab are available optional Lenovo Precision Pen 3 and keyboard pack.
The Lenovo Tab P11 Pro (2nd Gen) is priced at €499, whereas the Lenovo Tab P11 (2nd Gen) is priced at €299.
Smart TVs saw bigger OLED/Mini-LED displays and bendable TVs
LG OLED Flex and LG OLED evo Gallery Edition 97”
LG launched the OLED Flex, a 42” OLED TV and the world’s first bendable OLED display, which can be bent from a flat to a curved screen using a button on the remote.
LG is targeting the gaming segment with this TV, as curved screens are more suitable for gaming. The TV has a host of features for gamers, such as Dolby Vision support, 4K resolution with 120Hz refresh rate, variable refresh rate, and ultra-low latency mode.
LG also launched the world’s first OLED TV with a 97” display. The TV will be a part of its C2 series.
TCL Mini LED TVs
TCL launched the EISA Premium-awarded Mini LED TV C835 series, a 4K Mini LED TV with Dolby Atmos for an immersive sound experience, and the EISA Best Buy-awarded QLED TV C735 series with 144Hz refresh rate for a better viewing experience.
TCL also launched the C935 series, a premium Mini LED series with 1,920 local dimming zones and 2.1.2 channel up-firing speakers.
The company also launched the world’s largest Mini LED TV at 98”.
The new offerings from TCL will help it to increase its share in the Mini LED segment and offer more choices to consumers.
Toshiba QA5D, UF3D and UK4D
Toshiba launched QLED TV sets and TVs with Fire TV at IFA 2022.
The QA5D series is Toshiba’s first QLED TV series, offering better picture quality. The TVs have Toshiba’s TRU Picture Engine technologies, which offer enhanced picture quality. The TVs also have Dolby Atmos and Dolby Vision and run on Android.
The UF3D series is Toshiba’s first with Fire TV in the UK and is ideal for someone who prefers Alexa. The series also has Toshiba’s TRU Picture Engine, Dolby Vision and Atmos.
The UK4D series is powered by Toshiba’s own operating system, and also comes with Alexa. The series has frameless models. It also supports Toshiba’s TRU Picture Engine and Dolby Atmos and Vision.
Toshiba also announced that models launched in 2019 would have the TikTok TV app, giving more entertainment choices to the consumers.
Other notable product launches
Lenovo IdeaPad 5i Chromebook: Lenovo also launched the IdeaPad 5i Chromebook, a 16” Chromebook with 2.5K resolution and 120Hz refresh rate, giving a smooth scrolling and video-viewing experience to the user.
TECNO Megabook T1: TECNO launched its first laptop at IFA 2022, the Megabook T1. It is an ultra-thin laptop that is 14.8 mm thick with a 15.6” display and weighs 1.48 kg. The entire body is made of aluminum and has a fingerprint sensor over the power button. The device has a 70wh battery supporting up to 17.5 hours, and Wi-Fi 6 connectivity.
LG launched the MoodUP refrigerator with color-changing LED door panels. With the LG ThinQ app, users can choose from 22 colors for the upper door panel and 19 colors for the lower door panel. The refrigerator also has a Bluetooth speaker.
B&O launched the Beosound Theatre soundbar. It has 12 drivers and 800W of power and supports 7.1.4 Channel Dolby Atmos. The Beosound Theatre has a new three-dimensional sound directivity, which is a combination of direct, side- and up-firing speakers. Besides, the soundbar can be wall-mounted or floor-standing.
JBL launched the Bar 1000, a 7.1.4 Channel Dolby Atmos-supported soundbar and wireless subwoofer. The Bar 1000 has two battery-powered detachable speakers which work in concert with four upward-firing speakers attached to the sound system.
Sennheiser unveiled the AMBEO Soundbar Plus, a compact and affordable version of the AMBEO Soundbar Max. It is a 7.1.4 Channel system, has nine drivers, with two upward-firing ones, and supports Dolby Atmos.
Conclusion
The focus of the tech companies was on improving customer experience. The new products offer various new features, such as bendable and foldable displays in TVs and laptops, enhanced health trackers in smartwatches, expanding choices in tablets and Chromebook, and a better audio experience with new soundbars. Home appliances are becoming more connected, and visually appealing to soothe the people and the environment.
In the wearables segment, there has been an increased focus on health-related aspects. The new launches in smartwatches and smart bands at IFA 2022 bring more health-related features. Also, the inclusion of new AI capabilities to measure health more accurately in real-time is likely to provide a boost to this segment.
Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – July 27, 2022
Global PC shipments fell 11.1% YoY in Q2 2022 to reach 71.2 million units and record the largest YoY decline since Q2 2013, according to Counterpoint data. The Q2 2022 decline was largely due to lockdowns in China’s Shanghai and Kunshan, which hit the PC supply chain. However, as the OEMs’ inventory continues to accumulate amid lackluster consumer demand globally, we believe supply issues will likely get resolved in the second half of this year.
Diminishing YoY PC Shipment Growth Since Q1 2021
Source: Counterpoint Research
The macroeconomic turbulence continues to impact worldwide consumption momentum. Regional conflicts as well as global inflation have resulted in a downward sloping demand and consumer spending. Enterprises too are putting off their new purchases and device upgrades, though the orders from the commercial segment have remained more solid compared to the consumer segment. By region, the US and EU experienced relatively huge double-digit YoY declines in their Q2 2022 shipments, mainly dragged by Chromebook demand correction and soft consumer demand, as these regions had started seeing shipment growth ahead of other regions last year.
On the other hand, lockdowns in China during the quarter hit hard the laptop supply chain, as major laptop ODMs, including Quanta, Compal and Wistron, suffered manufacturing disruptions. The most harmful impacts were in April and May when we saw approximately 40% and 20% YoY declines respectively for key ODMs. Production lines resumed normal operations in the second half of May and were trying to clear order backlogs.
Major Laptop ODMs’ Inventory Levels (in $ mn)
Source: Counterpoint Research
Even though the top three brands showed a YoY decline in Q2 shipments, they all managed to keep their rankings unchanged. Lenovo maintained its leadership in the global PC market with a 24.4% share in Q2 2022. The brand’s total shipments fell 12.7% YoY to 17.4 million units mainly due to weak consumer demand, partly offset by moderate commercial orders.
HP suffered the most among the top brands in Q2 2022, reporting a 27% YoY decline in shipments from a high base last year. The sharp decline was mainly due to soft momentum for consumer products and Chromebooks. On the other hand, Dell had the smallest adjustment to its YoY shipment performance, thanks to a commercial/premium-focused product strategy.
Acer saw a 14.8% YoY shipment decline off a relatively high base in Q2 2021. Despite Chromebook weakness continuing to cap Acer’s growth momentum, its market exposure in entry- to mainstream-level laptops helped the brand take fourth place in global PC shipments in Q2 2022.
Apple reported a sharp decline of 20% YoY in its Q2 shipments largely due to supply chain disruption at Quanta’s manufacturing lines in China. The consumers too were waiting for a new MacBook series equipped with M2 chips. As a result, the company lost its fourth place in the global PC rankings for Q2 2022.
Asus’ Q2 shipments were down 7.7% YoY thanks to its commercial segment focus in recent quarters combined with consumer spending weakness entering 2022. The brand’s total shipments of 4.7 million made it share the fifth position with Apple in Q2 2022.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q2 2022
More shipment adjustments seen
We had cut our 2022 shipment forecast in Q1 2022 to reflect the beginning of a weakening PC demand. But with persistent inflation pressure and enterprise spending saturating, we expect order adjustments to continue even as the average selling price plateaus on easing supply constraints. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for the 2022 PC shipments to a 9% YoY decline, with potential bright spots of new M2 MacBooks and desktop demand rebounding after the post-COVID-19 reopening of offices.
Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – April 28, 2022
Global PC shipments fell 4.3% YoY in Q1 2022 to reach 78.7 million units, according to Counterpoint Research Global PC tracker. Entering 2022, the PC supply chain experienced easing component shortages and logistics issues compared to the second half of 2021. Order backlog from 2021 continued to contribute substantially to PC shipments in the beginning of 2022. This supports our previous view of another PC shipment plateau in 2022.
Our checks suggest the PC supply chain turned relatively conservative on shipment outlook in the middle of Q1 2022, largely dragged by global inflation and regional conflict, which brought uncertainties to PC demand and blurred the overall PC shipment momentum ahead. The overall PC shipments in 2022 are expected to be shy of our forecasts made at the end of 2021.
In addition, COVID-19 lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai and Kunshan, where many laptop manufacturing lines are located, will cause shipment correction in April. Compared to OEMs, ODMs currently face more issues related to manufacturing resource allocation than component shortage impacts.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2022
Lenovo maintained its lead in the global PC market in Q1 2022 with a 23.1% share, which was down a little compared to 2021. The brand’s total shipments of 18.2 million units were down 9.5% YoY. Lenovo performed well during the pandemic largely due to its in-house manufacturing and operation control. This advantage will continue to help the company in times of demand uncertainty or component supply issues.
HP took a 20.2% share to capture the second spot. The company saw a 16% YoY decline in shipments largely due to Chromebook losing momentum and consumer demand weakness.
Dell, on the other hand, posted a slight increase in its shipments in the first quarter of 2022, riding on the commercial/premium product strategy tailwinds. Dell’s market share expanded by around 100 bps in Q1 2022.
Apple continued its success with the M1 MacBook series to see 8% YoY shipment growth in Q1 2022, which boosted its market share by 100 bps YoY. Asus saw 4% YoY shipment growth thanks to its gaming and commercial products expansion. Acer continued to struggle due to Chromebook sales losing momentum and ended the quarter with a 1% shipment decline. Asus and Acer both had ~7% market share in the quarter.
Component shortages likely to ease in H2 2022
In the past two years, the PC supply chain has spent much effort dealing with demand uncertainties caused by COVID-19 and component shortages. But since late 2021, demand-supply gaps have been narrowing, signaling an approaching end to supply tightness across the broader ecosystem. Among all PCs and laptops, the supply gap for the most important components such as power management ICs, Wi-Fi and I/O interface IC has narrowed. We have seen OEMs and ODMs continuing to accumulate component inventory to cope with uncertainties arising from COVID-19. Combined with the abovementioned consumer and Chromebook demand weakness, we believe component shortages are going to ease in H2 2022.
London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – January 20, 2022
Global PC shipments reached 90.3 million in Q4 2021 to maintain their YoY growth momentum at 3.1%, coming on a relatively high base in 2020. The situation on the component supply and logistic fronts continued to improve but at a slow pace. The shipment forecast for Q1 2022 remains optimistic, mainly due to a solid demand and improving component supply. OEMs and ODMs are also expecting some easing of pressure on PC components.
In Q4 2021, the supply gap for the most important PC components, such as power management IC, Wi-Fi and I/O interface IC, narrowed. We believe both OEMs and ODMs will continue to accumulate component inventory to cope with uncertainties cropping from COVID-19. Therefore, we do not see any big risk to PC shipment numbers due to supply backlogs.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q4 2021
Lenovo continued to lead the global PC market in Q4 2021 with a 24% share, slightly shy of its share in Q4 2020 but still having its highest unit sales in 2021 at 21.7 million. HP took a 20.5% share with 1% YoY growth driven by the easing of component shortage. Dell posted a 15% YoY growth in the quarter riding on the strong momentum from its commercial/premium product strategy. Apple’s shipments in Q4 2021 remained largely unchanged thanks to the M1 Macbook’s success. On the other hand, Asus saw a single-digit YoY growth in Q4, while Acer saw a single-digit YoY decline with market shares of 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Despite several larger OEMs and Internet Service Providers pulling back from physically attending, the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) saw some interesting device launches for wireless routers by key industry leaders such as Netgear, Tp-Link, Asus and Linksys. Wi-Fi 6E is the pick of the technologies among the various OEMs worldwide and devices were launched with some new features such as rotating antennas, quad band support and blazing-fast downlink speeds.
Here are top product launches and announcements by OEMs at this year’s CES:
World’s First Rotating Antenna Router Archer AXE200 Omni by Tp-Link
TP-Link is the first OEM to launch a Wi-Fi router with self-adjusting antennas. This Wi-Fi 6E router automatically changes the orientation of its antennas to optimize bandwidth. It also won a CES 2022 Innovation Award. The device offers a maximum speed of up to 11 Gbps that works on 6 GHz band providing superfast and reliable internet connectivity for power users. The device is aimed at users who struggle with poor network reception from standard Wi-Fi routers.
The Archer AXE300 provides quad band support, offers speed up to 16 Gbps and can connect up to 350 devices. The router will be offered later this year and also has 10 gigabit/s ports to support fast wired internet connectivity. The quad band offers lowered network congestion with an additional 5 GHz band and a wide 6 GHz band for Wi-Fi 6E devices which offers to reduce interference and broaden coverage. The device is an ideal solution for small and medium enterprises, gamers and freelance power user who work on cloud systems, which can deliver unmatched speed and connectivity required by them.
TP-Link has has options for larger premises with the Deco XE200, which offers 11000 Mbps of maximum speed and covers 6500 square feet of real estate with just two devices and the area coverage can be increased by opting for the three device solution. TP-Link’s proprietary AI Mesh solution promises better connection response rates by automating bandwidth switching within the mesh system.
Comparison between top devices announced by TP-Link
TP-Link provides all its routers with HomeShield powered by Avira, which acts as a security solution to protect the network and vulnerable IoT devices connected on the network from hackers. Security has been a concern among the OEMs due to several vulnerabilities found in such devices last year. The brand has integrated EasyMesh intelligent software in its routers and range extenders to enable the easy building of mesh networks using any EasyMesh-supported device.
TP-Link has announced a new brand, Aginet, which will cater to Internet Service Providers’ growing demand for better connecting devices to improve their Quality of Service (QoS) to consumers. TP-Link will launch a separate product line under this brand with a philosophy of agile and pragmatic solutions for the market. There has been a significant increase in the fiber connections worldwide in the past two years and with growing demand for xPON routers and mesh network solutions this is a practical move by the brand to help them align their products better in the market.
Netgear builds on Wi-Fi 6E Leadership
The pandemic induced high demand for better internet connections and increased dependence on Wi-Fi for working, learning and entertainment from home. Modern WI-Fi routers require more bandwidth, more number of bands, and better antennas to work in congested environments with various IoT devices and network devices vying for connectivity.
Netgear has introduced several superfast Wi-Fi devices adopting the latest Wi-Fi 6E technology in the last quarter of 2021. Building on this, Netgear announced the Nighthawk RAXE300 Triband Wi-Fi router which offers throughput speeds of up to 7.8 Gbps, eight Wi-Fi streams and can cover up to 2500 sq. ft. With pre-optimised antennas, one 2.5-Gbps port and five 1-Gbps ports to offer superfast wired connectivity as well. At $399, Netgear has priced it competitively, it remains to be seen how the competition responds. Netgear had several devices mentioned by the CES 2022 Innovations Honors’ Board including the already launched Orbi 5G Wi-Fi 6 Mesh System.
With working from home, a feature of life under the pandemic, employers, especially smaller businesses, are looking for affordable and reliable solutions for their employees that offer an experience on par with office life. Netgear’s Orbi line-up offers such reliability and security to be deployed for work from home scenarios, these devices are affordable and offer mesh networking solutions for better connectivity.
Netgear announced a Game Booster Solution for gamers using Netgear gaming routers, to enhance their user experience by offering software to find better server connections, geo filters for locations and a ping heat map to reduce lag. This is a subscription-based service aimed at gamers, which is a large market, especially as the pandemic encouraged new gamers and even people taking up gaming professionally.
ASUS drops a Quadband gaming router, the ROG Rapture GT-AXE16000
ASUS announced a quadband gaming router, ROG Rapture GT-AXE16000, which offers speeds of up to 16000 Mbps, 6 GHz band support and six 1-gigabit/s ports to offer a strong gaming experience. The device is powered by a quad-core processor from Broadcom, which improves network throughput by 18%, compared to the previous generation device for accelerated data transfers. ASUS’s own RF technology improves signal coverage by 38% compared to its previous product, and the device offers intelligent AI Mesh capabilities to connect with another Wi-Fi 6E EasyMesh enabled router.
At USD649, ASUS is assuming gamers are willing to pay a premium for the speed the product offers. However, it’s currently the cheapest quadband option available. The brand has also updated its ROG GT-AX11000 Pro with a beefier chipset to offer improved Wi-Fi 6 performance.
Linksys offers an affordable Wi-Fi 6 device: Hydra Pro 6
Linksys has unveiled its latest dual-band Wi-Fi 6 router, Hydra Pro 6. The router is launched into a competitive space with some recently launched products from Netgear, TP-Link and D-Link, however Linksys is carving its own niche by offering similar specs but at lower prices that its competitors. The Hydra Pro 6 is powered by Qualcomm’s Immersive Home 216 Platform along with the access to the 160 MHz channel, which offers true Wi-Fi 6 experience with faster speeds up to 5.4 Gbps and better connectivity with up to 30+ connected devices. The device is perfect for regular home use cases and can be a good offering for Internet service providers as well.
Linksys has also announced a cloud managed access point for large spaces such as restaurants, retail stores and small businesses, which require high concurrent device connections with dense network congestion. It offers a cloud-based management system that helps the system administrator to control, configure and monitor remotely. The solution is powered by Qualcomm’s Networking Pro Platform 1200 that claims fast throughput and good reliability. It has 4 x 4 internal antennas for improved signal coverage.
Key Takeaways
The Wi-Fi market is poised to grow significantly in 2022 as we expect strong subscriber growth in most regions of the globe. Regulators are working to ensure that the 6 GHz band available for unlicensed use with the spectrum already available in North America and Europe. As a consequence, we will see a rapid adoption of Wi-Fi 6/6E devices this year.
The major focus for OEMS this year will be to increase signal coverage and strength and offer faster Wi-Fi 6/6E devices at a range of price points. OEMs and ISPs will work together to improve the Quality of Service (QoS) and as the fiber deployment increases across the globe more demand will arise from xPON devices. Mesh Network systems will be in demand too, as a lot of ISPs are bundling it with their services and the mesh systems are a better choice for users with larger premises and more connected devices.
London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – October 18, 2021
Global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021 at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints. However, the 9.3% YoY growth during the quarter implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020. In addition, most OEMs and ODMs are not seeing any shrinking gap between orders (demand) and shipments (supply).
In Q3 2021, the global PC supply chain remained constrained due to component shortages related to power management IC, radio frequency, audio codec and others. We believe there is no solution to this demand-supply mismatch till mid-2022. ODMs are still pulling in chips inventory to tackle any downside risks. Besides, unstable global logistics and manufacturing site shutdowns in Southeast Asia and China add more uncertainties to PC supplies.
PC demand remained solid during the quarter. Commercial PC demand is gradually heating up while consumer PC momentum is decelerating. Chromebook turned out to be the biggest drag during the quarter, as both government and education orders were largely fulfilled in the first half, in addition to the increasing availability of COVID-19 vaccines and reopening of offices and schools across the world. We believe Chromebook demand will not disappear, just take a break this year.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q3 2021
Lenovo was in first place again in the third quarter with a 23.9% market share after shipping 20.1 million units, slightly above the Q2 number mainly due to its operational flexibility. HP’s 20.5% share and 6% YoY decline were largely due to Chromebook slowdown as well as component shortages. Dell had a 30% YoY growth in the third quarter due to a relatively lower base and its commercial/premium product focus. Apple’s shipments grew 11% YoY in Q3 2021 riding on the replacement demand for the M1 Mac. Asus shipments were boosted by both consumer and commercial segments. The brand took fifth place in Q3 beating Acer, which recorded a 3% YoY growth due to Chromebook slowdown.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Global PC shipments grew 45% YoY in Q1 2021 on solid demand and a low base in the same period in 2020 due to COVID-19.
Shortages of key IC components will continue to affect the shipment schedules of PC brands and ODMs.
The recovery reported by the PC market in H2 2020 gained momentum in H1 2021. Global PC shipments grew 45% YoY to 75.6 million in Q1 2021 thanks to robust demand across different categories and a low base in the same period last year due to the COVID-19 outbreak. However, PC shipment volumes were down 14% sequentially from Q4 2020 due to seasonality.
With a 24% market share, Lenovo took the first place again in Q1 2021, followed by HP at 23% and Dell at 17%. The overall momentum of the PC market was mainly driven by the growth in gaming notebooks and surging demand from the work-from-home and study-from-home segments, which stimulated Chromebook sales.
Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2021 (units in million)
In Q2 2021, PC shipments will remain resilient with the pent-up demand from Q1 2021 extending to this quarter. We believe the top six vendors will continue to dominate the market with over 85% share.
Stepping into H2 2021, the momentum from the previous half will continue and reach a peak with back-to-school (some will be virtual classes) demand as well as the pent-up demand from H1 2021. Premium models with higher ASPs could take the lead via big promotions, which may squeeze out Chromebook’s market share in H2 to some extent. In all, we predict a 16.3% YoY growth in 2021, with global shipments reaching 333 million.
Lead time will ease only in late H1 2022
On the other hand, our checks suggest ODMs’ component inventory levels are relatively higher. But they are still facing shortages of key components like power management IC, display driver IC (with display panel) and CPUs. We have found a 20%-30% gap between orders (end-demand) and actual shipments (supply), largely owing to the component shortage beginning H2 2020.
Lead Time (weeks) for Key Components in PC/Notebook Segments
PMIC and DDIC have faced the biggest gaps in the PC segment, with the lead time almost two times more than the normal before the COVID-19 outbreak. For PC CPUs, it was gently improving in late H1 in several sub-segment products. Some vendors also said the demand for audio codec IC and LAN chip remained unsatisfied and would continue to remain so in the second half of this year. WiFi SoC has also faced relatively low inventory levels, which will prove to be a drag on 2021 global PC shipments.
Since we do not see any meaningful foundry capacity expansion in H2 2021, it is unlikely that the lead time for key IC components would recover from the current status. Therefore, PC brands and ODMs cannot fully solve the shortage issue and clear the orders backlog. We expect the demand-supply gap to gradually normalize in late H1 2022.
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