Top

Counterpoint:2018上半年中国智能手机市场分析

2018上半年中国智能手机市场整体下降10%;荣耀、小米及华为销量增涨,荣耀涨幅最为显著

New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires –2018年8月23日

整体市场点评:

2018上半年中国智能手机市场竞争激烈,但整体表现不如预期。Counterpoint Market Pulse数据显示,2018上半年中国智能手机市场销量同比下降10%(详见图表1)。中国市场经历了2017年的低迷期,被寄予厚望的2018上半年仍未实现反弹。 以下,我们将具体阐述整体市场仍然低迷的原因,以及介绍市场低潮 “逆流而上” 的亮点品牌,并展望2018下半年的市场表现。

图表1:中国市场智能手机整体销量和品牌表现1H 2018 vs. 1H 2017

Source: Counterpoint Research Market Pulse Service Q2 2018

市场低迷原因点评:

  1. 年初集中清理“非全面屏”产品库存,手机厂商供货量减少

2017下半年,全面屏(屏占比18:9或以上)产品在中国市场开始爆发,各厂商纷纷发布首款全面屏产品。进入2018年, “全面屏” 大战全面爆发,逐渐覆盖到厂商各个价格段的产品线,整体市场产品更迭加速。2018年第一季度,厂商主要发力清理“非全面屏”(屏占比为16:9)产品的库存,产品供货减少,以便为后续集中发布“全面屏”产品预留生产资源及销售空间。因此,在生产和供应链层面,手机厂商相对去年更为保守,一定程度上阻碍了整体市场在第一季度及上半年的生产和销售增长。

  1. 智能手机质量提升,中国消费者换机周期延长

Counterpoint换机周期模型及消费者调研数据显示,目前中国智能手机用户的平均换机周期约为22个月,相比2年前延长了4个月,主要原因是智能手机产品质量整体提升,用户使用时间更长。其次,中国2018上半年经济较为低迷,也对用户消费更换购买手机产生抑制作用。我们预测2018下半年中国智能手机市场将逐渐恢复涨势,新品发布为其关键拉动因素。苹果、华为、荣耀、OPPO 和小米等主流厂商都将继续在下半年发布新品,越来越大的屏幕占比(从18:9到19:9甚至19.5:9的进化)、AI(人工智能)功能的完善及市场普及,将让更多用户了解到大屏AI智能手机为其生活带来的便利,由此激发消费者购买欲望。

 主要品牌上半年表现点评:

Counterpoint Market Pulse 品牌销量数据显示,虽然中国上半年整体市场低迷,荣耀品牌却异军突起,同比增长高达32%,增长率远远高于其他品牌。荣耀之后,小米增长率为18%,华为品牌增长率为2%。除荣耀、小米及华为品牌,其他厂商销量均为负增长,众小品牌的生存更为艰难, “其他” 品类同比下降43%。由此可见,中国市场品牌整合加速, “大鱼通吃” 现象显著

荣耀品牌表现点评:

高质量产品、出色的设计、领先的技术、竞争力的价格及完善的渠道保证了荣耀品牌的迅速增长。热销例子可参见荣耀畅玩7C ,一款18:9全面屏、双摄像头、面部识别等多种领先功能加持的产品,售价仅899元。荣耀畅玩7C在同价位段产品中性能更优,价格又比同等性能产品更具竞争力,因此在竞争激烈的手机市场表现出色,广受中国消费者欢迎。除荣耀畅玩7C,像荣耀10等产品同样用技术的革新、亮眼的设计、合理的价格,在中国智能手机市场脱颖而出。从2018下半年开始,荣耀产品将逐渐全线配备人工智能 AIS手持超级摄影、GPU Turbo图形加速等先进技术,我们预计,荣耀的一系列创新将推动下半年产品销量的持续增长,也将贡献荣耀品牌的全面升级。

小米品牌表现点评:

小米品牌和产品依然得到“米粉”的认可,保证了小米销量的恢复和稳定。小米在经历了2016年的品牌低迷期后,2017年开始反弹并迅速增长,2018年小米在香港成功上市。小米品牌的亮点在于其海外市场表现:小米在海外市场的增长已超过国内,并在印度、东南亚及东欧等多个国家位于前5我们分析得出,首次得益于小米手机产品和品牌本身的可玩性和互动性,这是小米品牌和产品销量的恢复的基础,比如:MIUI和小爱同学的可玩性被更多用户所关注。其次,是供应链问题的解决。小米的增长得益于其供应链整合能力和交付能力,为市场可以供应众多“高性价比”产品。2018下半年,随着小米手机在摄像头、AI语音、UI设计、定位系统等方面的提升,小米开始进攻中端市场,我们也将关注小米在中端市场的增长表现。

华为品牌表现点评:

华为品牌2018上半年的发展关键词包括:千县计划、中端发力、Nova出彩。华为品牌在中国市场的增长虽不及荣耀及小米,但其上半年依旧表现稳定、稳中有升。根据Counterpoint Model Sales Database数据显示,华为中端产品线Nova系列的增长最为明显,而Nova的增长也弥补了华为此前在中端市场的短板。因此在2018年,华为通过“入门级”的畅享系列,中端的Nova系列及高端的Mate和P系列,形成了完善的产品列阵。此外,华为的稳定增长也得益于其渠道能力的提升。华为通过渠道合作伙伴计划及自有品牌体验店的扩张,与PC、平板及智能手表等其他智能终端的结合,发力打造覆盖全渠道的强大智能生态。

苹果品牌表现点评:

苹果品牌的增长关键词可为 “ iPhone X ”及 “全渠道布局”。虽然苹果的销量相比去年有所下降,但凭借8,000元以上超高端产品“iPhone X”在中国市场的热销,苹果销售额增长显著。此外,苹果今年开始利用折扣策略,以延长iPhone X,iPhone8 和iPhone 8 Plus在中国的热销周期。苹果还扩大了在中国的销售渠道,其销售网络除自有品牌体验店外,已覆盖到授权代理商、大型连锁商店,电商渠道等。全渠道的布局为苹果在中国的销量提供了保证。

OPPO品牌表现点评:

OPPO 2018上半年的主旋律是产品与渠道变革及品牌策略调整。OPPO的销量增长表现基本与行业整体水平一致,而其领先地位主要依靠单个型号的亮眼销量,例如OPPO R15系列产品。时隔数年,OPPO上半年发布了Find系列产品,我们认为Find X的革新性非常高,并填补了OPPO在高端市场的空缺。加上后期的R17系列新品,我们看好OPPO品牌下半年的表现及增长。OPPO今年上半年发布3D摄像头,光感指纹,Super VOOC、水滴屏幕等技术,表示OPPO开始在技术及IP方面加码;其在上海和深圳开放超级旗舰店,也表示OPPO正在全面提升品牌形象。

行业价值提升:

根据Counterpoint Market Pulse数据显示:中国市场智能手机的平均单价(Average Sales Price, or “ASP” in short)从209美元增长到267美金,增长率超过20%(详见图表3)。ASP的增长是今年上半年市场的另一个主要特点。中国市场智能手机平均单价增长主要原因如下:

图表21H 2017 – 1H 2018中国市场智能手机平均单价变化

Source: Counterpoint Research Market Pulse Q2 2018

  1. 消费者购买力增强。根据Counterpoint 消费者调研数据显示,中国市场消费升级趋势明显,用户虽然换机频次减少,但是对品牌与产品质量要求提高,例如此前购买1,000元以下手机产品的用户,下一部手机更可能会选择1,500元甚至2,000元的产品。
  2. 元器件价格上涨。随着智能手机产品整体质量提升,手机厂商在产品设计上纷纷采用更高的存储和更精密的元器件。入门级产品采用4G RAM+64G ROM内存,中高端产品采用6G RAM+128G ROM甚至8GRAM+256G ROM内存, 已成为市场标配。NAND Flash等存储类元器件价格的增长是产品BOM cost(物料成本)提升的主要原因。
  3. 产品技术的升级:为应对中国市场的激烈竞争,手机厂商不断在技术方面推陈出新,在实现产品更新换代的同时,也提高了产品的成本及售价。2018年,异形切割全面屏(俗称 “刘海屏” )及人工智能技术开始全面应用于厂商各个价位的多款手机产品;
  4. 应用和游戏的要求。此外,由于游戏应用市场不断增长,热门游戏如王者荣耀、吃鸡游戏等,对手机的散热及图形处理等软硬件提出了更高的要求,也为手机厂商整体成本和价格的调整提供了机会。

最后,从热销机型价格段方面看, 2018上半年中国市场增长最显著的产品价格段分别为 700美金以上” 价格段及“400-499美金”价格段(详细见图表3)。“700美金以上”价格段的主要贡献代表为iPhone X及iPhone 8 Plus;“400-499美金”价格段的主要贡献代表包括:OPPO R15系列、VIVO X21系列、荣耀10系列及小米8系列 。

图表3智能手机销量分价格段增1H 2018 vs. 1H 2017 (US $)

Source: Counterpoint Research Market Pulse Q2 2018

获得中国及全球智能手机市场的更多资讯,请联系:

pr@counterpointresearch.com / sales@counterpointresearch.com

Analyst Contacts:

James Yan闫占

+86 15810182576

james@counterpointresearch.com

@james_a3

 

Flora Tang
+852 5545 2529
flora@counterpointresearch.com

@floradingtang 

 

Mengmeng Zhang

+86 18611804269
mengmeng@counterpointresearch.com

@mengmzhang 

 

Counterpoint Research
+852 8191 4813

press(at)counterpointresearch.com

@CounterPointTR

Counterpoint research is a young and fast growing research firm covering analysis of the tech industry. Coverage areas are connected devices, digital consumer goods, software & applications and other adjacent topics. We provide syndicated research reports as well as tailored. Our seminars and workshops for companies and institutions are popular and available on demand. Consulting and customized work on the above topics is provided for high precision projects.

Term of Use and Privacy Policy

Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited

Registration

In order to access Counterpoint Technology Market Research Limited (Company or We hereafter) Web sites, you may be asked to complete a registration form. You are required to provide contact information which is used to enhance the user experience and determine whether you are a paid subscriber or not.
Personal Information When you register on we ask you for personal information. We use this information to provide you with the best advice and highest-quality service as well as with offers that we think are relevant to you. We may also contact you regarding a Web site problem or other customer service-related issues. We do not sell, share or rent personal information about you collected on Company Web sites.

How to unsubscribe and Termination

You may request to terminate your account or unsubscribe to any email subscriptions or mailing lists at any time. In accessing and using this Website, User agrees to comply with all applicable laws and agrees not to take any action that would compromise the security or viability of this Website. The Company may terminate User’s access to this Website at any time for any reason. The terms hereunder regarding Accuracy of Information and Third Party Rights shall survive termination.

Website Content and Copyright

This Website is the property of Counterpoint and is protected by international copyright law and conventions. We grant users the right to access and use the Website, so long as such use is for internal information purposes, and User does not alter, copy, disseminate, redistribute or republish any content or feature of this Website. User acknowledges that access to and use of this Website is subject to these TERMS OF USE and any expanded access or use must be approved in writing by the Company.
– Passwords are for user’s individual use
– Passwords may not be shared with others
– Users may not store documents in shared folders.
– Users may not redistribute documents to non-users unless otherwise stated in their contract terms.

Changes or Updates to the Website

The Company reserves the right to change, update or discontinue any aspect of this Website at any time without notice. Your continued use of the Website after any such change constitutes your agreement to these TERMS OF USE, as modified.
Accuracy of Information: While the information contained on this Website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, We disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. User assumes sole responsibility for the use it makes of this Website to achieve his/her intended results.

Third Party Links: This Website may contain links to other third party websites, which are provided as additional resources for the convenience of Users. We do not endorse, sponsor or accept any responsibility for these third party websites, User agrees to direct any concerns relating to these third party websites to the relevant website administrator.

Cookies and Tracking

We may monitor how you use our Web sites. It is used solely for purposes of enabling us to provide you with a personalized Web site experience.
This data may also be used in the aggregate, to identify appropriate product offerings and subscription plans.
Cookies may be set in order to identify you and determine your access privileges. Cookies are simply identifiers. You have the ability to delete cookie files from your hard disk drive.