Global Electric Vehicle Market Share, Q2 2022 – Q1 2024

Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Market Share: Q3 2022 – Q2 2024

Published Date: Sep 4, 2024

Global EV Market Share Q2 2024
Brands	Q3 2022	Q4 2022	Q1 2023	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024
Tesla	17%	17%	22%	20%	17%	16%	20%	17%
BYD Auto	13%	14%	14%	15%	17%	18%	15%	17%
Geely Holdings	5%	7%	8%	6%	6%	6%	8%	7%
Others	65%	62%	56%	59%	60%	60%	57%	59%

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Global Electric Vehicle Market Highlights

Key Takeaways:

– In Q2 2024, global sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) increased by nearly 9%.

– China dominated the market, making up 56% of worldwide BEV sales, with the USA and Germany following.

– After declining in Q1, BEV sales in the USA increased by 13% YoY Q2 2024 majorly attributed to comparatively better macro-economic performance in the second quarter

– Tesla continued to lead the BEV market, with BYD Auto close behind, trailing by just 15,000 units.

– The Tesla Model Y, Model 3, and BYD Seagull were the top three best-selling electric vehicle models.

– Notably, the BYD Seagull surpassed the BYD Yuan Plus (Atto 3) to claim the third spot.

Top 3 BEV Players:

Tesla: While Tesla continued to be the top-selling BEV brand, its sales in Q2 fell by 5% YoY. The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 retained their positions as the best-selling electric vehicle models worldwide. Additionally, Tesla delivered close to 11,000 Cybertrucks during this period.

BYD Auto: In Q2 2024, BYD’s sales surged by over 21% YoY. The BYD Seagull, BYD Yuan Plus (Atto 3), and BYD Dolphin were the company’s top-selling models. BYD exported nearly 106,000 vehicles, including plug-in hybrids. Of these exports, 42% were sold in Latin America and 21% to Southeast Asia, highlighting these regions as key areas of expansion for BYD as well as other Chinese EV manufacturers.

Geely Holdings: Geely’s BEV sales grew by 35% YoY in Q2 2024. Zeekr, Volvo and Geometry together made up over 75% of the OEM’s BEV sales. Zeekr 001, Volvo EX3 and Geometry Panda Mini are the top-selling BEV models collectively representing 50% of Geely’s BEV sales.

*Data on this page is updated every quarter

For EVs, we consider only BEVs. PHEVs, HEVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not included in this study.

For detailed insights on the data, please reach out to us at sales(at)counterpointresearch.com. If you are a member of the press, please contact us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for any media enquiries.

For a more detailed electric vehicle model sales tracker, click below:

Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker: Q2 2024

Excel File

Published Date: August 2024

This report tracks the global passenger vehicle sales by brand and by model across 23 regions (China, USA, Germany, UK, France, Spain, Japan, India, Italy, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, ROE, LATAM, MEA and Oceania) quarterly. The report will help to understand regional trends, brand dynamics and type of EV penetration. The period covered in this report is from Q1 2018 to Q2 2024.

Navigating the Future: Mapless vs Map-based Autonomous Driving

Mapless solutions provide more flexibility and adaptability. However, map-based solutions are more accurate and reliable.
The balance between flexibility, cost, and safety will be crucial in shaping the future of autonomous driving.
Map-based solutions may dominate in the short term, but the potential rise of hybrid models and advancements in AI will shape the next generation of autonomous vehicles.

The automotive industry is on the brink of a revolutionary transformation, propelled by the megatrends of connectivity, electrification, and vehicle autonomy. As advancements in Autonomous Driving (AD) technologies reshape our roads, a pivotal debate has emerged – should vehicles rely on traditional high-definition (HD) maps, or can they navigate effectively using real-time sensor data without pre-loaded HD maps? This question is the focus of the discussion surrounding mapless and map-based autonomous driving.

Understanding Mapless and Map-based Systems

Mapless autonomous driving, often termed ‘vision-based’ or ‘camera-based’ AD, leverages a combination of cameras and sensors to create a dynamic perception map of the vehicle’s surroundings. This innovative approach allows vehicles to navigate in real-time, adapting to changing conditions without relying on pre-loaded HD maps. Companies like Imagry and Deeproute are at the forefront of this technology. Imagry uses deep convolutional neural networks (DCNN) to mimic human driving behaviour for motion planning. Tesla was the frontrunner among OEMs adopting Mapless AD for its lineup using FSD. Other OEMs such as Xpeng, Huawei AITO, GAC Aion and Li Auto have also adopted Mapless.

In contrast, map-based AD systems depend on detailed pre-loaded HD maps, which are regularly updated to ensure accuracy and reliability. Major players like Google, HERE, and TomTom provide these comprehensive maps, which enhance navigation and route guidance. While map-based systems currently offer greater reliability, the flexibility and adaptability of mapless solutions present compelling advantages for future developments.

The Pros and Cons

Both solutions come with their own set of advantages and challenges. Mapless AD systems excel in real-time data processing and sensor integration, allowing for dynamic adaptation. However, they still face hurdles in reliability and accuracy. Conversely, map-based systems provide a solid foundation for safe navigation but involve higher costs and a dependence on external data sources.

As the industry evolves, the choice between these systems will largely depend on specific vehicle needs, regional infrastructure, and user requirements. For instance, higher-end vehicles may benefit from the precision of HD maps, especially in urban environments, while budget-friendly models might prioritize the cost-effectiveness and flexibility of mapless systems.

Source: Counterpoint Research

The Potential Rise of Hybrid Solutions

Interestingly, the concept of hybrid solutions in autonomous driving is beginning to gain traction, suggesting a promising future where the strengths of both mapless and map-based methodologies could be integrated. This strategy combines real-time sensor data processing with the reliability of HD maps, enhancing the vehicle’s perception capabilities and ensuring redundancy. Such solutions are particularly beneficial in regions where mapping data is scarce or frequently changing, allowing for effective navigation across diverse environments. This could ultimately lead to a more robust and versatile framework for autonomous driving, catering to the varying demands of different geographical regions and driving conditions.

Conclusion

As we look at the future of autonomous driving, the debate between mapless and map-based systems is bound to continue. While map-based solutions may dominate in the short term, the rise of hybrid models and advancements in AI and machine learning will likely shape the next generation of autonomous vehicles. Ultimately, the path forward will be defined by a combination of technological innovation, regional needs, and the evolving landscape of consumer preferences. The journey toward fully autonomous driving is underway, and how we navigate this terrain will determine the future of mobility.

A comprehensive short report on Mapless vs Map-based Autonomous Driving is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

JSW MG Motor India Pushes EV Adoption With Unified EV Charging App

JSW MG Motor India aims to push EV adoption by undertaking various initiatives.
It has introduced the eHUB all-in-one EV charging solution that can be used by consumers of any EV brand.
MG has partnered with LOHUM, TERI and BatX to reuse and repurpose batteries for schools and community centers.
In collaboration with its long-term partner Jio, MG has launched the Innovative Connectivity Platform (ICP) to enhance the in-car experience.

Over the years, electric vehicle (EV) adoption has picked up in India, mainly in the two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments. However, consumer apprehensions over range anxiety, charging infrastructure, affordability and serviceability have been impacting the adoption of four-wheeler EVs.

JSW MG Motor India, an early mover in India’s four-wheeler EV mass market, recently organized the DriEV.Bharat event to discuss its latest efforts toward addressing these challenges. The company has been focusing on expanding its EV portfolio in the country to achieve 65%-75% of its total sales from EVs by 2028, compared to 40% now. MG plans to introduce five EV models in India by 2028.

At the DriEV.Bharat event, the company announced a four-way approach to help push EV sales in India:

Source: MG Motor

eHUB – Unified app for EV charging

Apart from locating the charging station, another challenge for EV users is dealing with multiple payment systems at different charging stations, forcing them to use several charging apps on their smartphones. To simplify the EV ownership experience, MG has partnered with 18 charging companies, such as BPCL, Adani Total Energies Limited, Chargezone and Glida, to introduce an all-in-one EV charging solution. This comprehensive solution enables users to locate, reserve and pay for charging stations through a single app. Further, this solution is available to non-MG customers also.

Source: MG Motor

Project Revive – Reuse and repurpose batteries

The battery is a critical component in an EV. After the battery lifecycle ends for automotive use, it can’t be used in vehicles again but can be reused for other purposes. Therefore, MG has partnered with LOHUM, TERI and BatX to reuse and repurpose the batteries as Battery Energy Storage Solutions (BESS) for schools and community centers. This also underlines MG’s commitment to maintaining a sustainable environment.

EVpedia – EV awareness platform

The lack of complete awareness is one of the biggest challenges in EV adoption. MG has decided to address this knowledge gap among the new EV buyers or traditional ICE users by introducing a dedicated knowledge platform for EVs. The portal aims to educate people about the several benefits of EVs over ICE, like government policies and cost of ownership.

Source: MG Motor

MG-JIO Innovative Connectivity Platform – Elevating in-car experience

MG is known for its use of intelligent technologies and for providing the best in-vehicle connectivity experience. In collaboration with its long-term partner Jio, MG has launched the Innovative Connectivity Platform (ICP) to enhance the in-car experience. This platform will include the MG App Store, enabling in-car gaming, learning and entertainment. It also features an improved in-car voice assistant, available in six different languages, and the industry’s first Home-to-Car solution, allowing MG and Jio consumers to seamlessly access the MG App via a TV connected through Jio Setup Box. The upcoming MG Windsor model will be the first EV to feature the ICP, and it will be standard for all upcoming models.

Source: MG Motor

Key takeaways

In the last three years, India’s electric car sales have been on the rise. However, their share in the total car sales remains low. This implies that there are still reservations over buying an electric car in India. To change this situation, MG has taken it upon itself to spread awareness about EVs and develop an EV ecosystem by bringing various industry partners to make the EV ownership experience hassle-free.
The initiatives announced by MG Motor at the DriEV.Bharat event will certainly contribute to efforts to popularize EVs in the country. The all-in-one EV charging solution is not only for MG consumers but also for consumers of other brands.
Tata Motors leads the EV market in India, followed by MG with a big margin. These initiatives will help MG grab more mindshare among its prospective consumers.
While the government is doing its bit in popularizing EVs, MG is perhaps the first EV OEM to take such initiatives. Other OEMs should also come forward to educate potential EV buyers and build a seamless EV ecosystem.

Over a Quarter of Two-wheelers Sold in 2024 to be Battery Powered

India is projected to surpass China in 2024 to become the world’s largest two-wheeler (2W) market.
The electric two-wheeler (E2W) market is growing at a rapid clip, with 2024 sales penetration expected to be 1.5 times that of four-wheeler passenger EVs.
The top five E2W players – Yadea, AIMA, TAILG, Sunra and Luyuan – captured more than 70% of the overall E2W sales in 2023.
Going forward, this will kickstart a new E2W ecosystem and a strong tussle between greenfield E2W brands and incumbent 2W brands.

Seoul, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Taipei, Tokyo – August 8, 2024

With the growing urbanization and increasing traffic congestion in cities, two-wheelers (2Ws) are becoming the preferred mode of transport for shorter commutes. According to Counterpoint’s Global Two-wheeler Sales Tracker, 2W sales grew by less than 1% YoY in 2023. India is projected to surpass China in 2024 to become the world’s largest 2W market. The global 2W market is predominantly concentrated in Asian countries like China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Going forward, it is the electric two-wheeler (E2W) segment of the market that will see more growth, with over a quarter of 2Ws sold in 2024 expected to be battery powered.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “Economic growth, consumer preference for 2Ws for short-distance commutes, and increasing 2W demand in the shared mobility space will help India overtake China. The 2W market is heading towards maturity, but the adoption of electrification is expected to rise significantly, particularly after 2025. Especially, Southeast Asian countries and India will witness mainstream adoption of E2Ws with a faster transition to EVs in these markets. The E2W penetration in the world’s overall 2W market is expected to grow to 1.5 times that of four-wheeler passenger EV sales in 2024. China currently leads the E2W market in terms of volumes, followed by India and Vietnam.”

The emerging E2W market is dominated by Yadea, AIMA, TAILG, Sunra and Luyuan, together capturing more than 70% of total sales at the end of 2023. All these brands are “EV-first” or greenfield EV manufacturers hailing from China, highlighting the country’s dominant position in the E2W market. Among the top 10, three E2W brands are from India – Ola Electric, TVS Motor and Ather Energy, reflecting India’s emerging presence in the E2W market. Ola and Ather are also greenfield “EV-first” 2W companies challenging the incumbents such as TVS, Hero and Bajaj. In the premium 2W segment, we are seeing the entry of newer players such as Ultraviolet, Revolt Motors, Energica Motor, Damon and ARC Vehicle to compete with Harley Davidson, Enfield, Yamaha and others.

Source: Counterpoint Global Two-wheeler Sales Tracker, July 2024
*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries from factories by respective brands.

Mandal added, “The traditional 2W manufacturers such as Honda, Yamaha, Bajaj, Hero, TVS, Haojue and Piaggio, much like traditional passenger vehicle companies, have been cautious about entering the E2W space. However, with their R&D capabilities, production and distribution scale, experience with technology transitions, strong brand value and a loyal customer base, traditional 2W players could enjoy some advantage in expanding into the E2W market. However, partnering with newer E2W ecosystem players will be a challenge for some, especially from the perspective of mindset and operations transformation.”

We estimate that the E2W share in global 2W sales will reach 44% by 2030, while cumulative E2W sales will exceed 150 million units between 2024 and 2030, driving global scale for the emerging E2W value chain.

Commenting on the market’s digital landscape, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “Similar to the four-wheeler market, we are seeing the 2W market transforming to embrace connectivity, especially against the backdrop of increasing electrification. Electrification entails ubiquitous wide area network connectivity, like 4G now or 5G RedCap in the future, along with related software and services. This necessitates a move to a more advanced digital instrument cluster which brings compute, software and OS together to drive multiple location-based applications and services for the riders. All this is attracting newer ecosystem players to the 2W market, such as those supplying chipsets, batteries and other related components (like Qualcomm, MediaTek, Delta, CATL and Samsung SDI) and those providing infrastructure (like Google, Amazon, Baidu and AWS for cloud, BlackBerry and Google for software, TomTom, HERE, MapMyIndia, Baidu and Spotify for applications, and ChargePoint, Statiq, Tata Power, MamCharge, LV C-CHONG, VinFast, Ola, Ather and Electrify America for electric charging). The overall semiconductor consumption by 2Ws will also increase to 15% by 2030, as we are seeing in the 4W market. At some point, AI and compute together will drive analytics for OEMs to improve upon the design and performance, and launch newer features and services to enable intelligent and safer driving experiences.”

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Global Two-Wheeler Sales Tracker, 2023’ and ‘Global Two-Wheeler Sales Forecast, 2022 -2030’ are now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Tesla Financials Improve in Q2 2024; Autonomy, Optimus Robots Can Generate Diverse Revenue Streams

Tesla’s deliveries and revenue showed significant growth in Q2 after a decline in Q1.
The announcement of the Tesla Cybercab has been postponed to October.
Tesla aims to diversify its revenue streams by focusing on advanced autonomy and Optimus robots.

Tesla’s revenue increased by 20% YoY in Q2 2024 to reach $25 billion driven by a 15% YoY rise in deliveries. The company delivered 443,956 units during the quarter, marking a significant rebound from the previous quarter’s notable declines in both revenue and deliveries. The US continued to be Tesla’s largest market, followed by China and Europe. During the same period, BYD, one of Tesla’s biggest competitors, delivered 426,039 EVs, trailing Tesla by around 18,000 units and signaling that it is quickly narrowing the gap.

In the Q2 2024 earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his team covered several important topics, especially the timeline for the Tesla Cybercab, developments related to Optimus robots, and the potential impacts of the upcoming US election on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives.

Tesla Cybercab timeline

Tesla CEO: “Regarding full self-driving and Robotaxi, we have made a lot of progress with full self-driving in Q2. And with version 12.5 beginning rollout, we think customers will experience a step change improvement in how well supervised full self-driving works.”

Analyst take: The Robotaxi or Cybercab has always been part of Tesla’s long-term vision. Each update to its full self-driving (FSD) software, especially with breakthroughs like FSD V12, brings Tesla closer to this goal. The new Robotaxi will rely on FSD 12.5 or newer. Tesla has delayed the launch from August to October for some technical updates, but as data collection progresses, the company aims to introduce unsupervised machine learning, potentially rolling out the Robotaxi by next year.

Optimus robots

CEO: “And at that point, we’ll be providing Optimus robots to outside customers. That will be a production Version 2 of Optimus. For the energy business, this is growing faster than anything else. This is – we are really demand constrained rather than production constrained.”

Analyst take: As Tesla nears the limit in reducing manufacturing costs for its S3XY model line-up, the company is now focusing on diversifying its business model. One potential major development is the Optimus robot. Initially showcased in 2021 and used only in Tesla’s production facilities, the upgraded Optimus robot is expected to be launched in 2026. In the long term, this new product could potentially generate revenue equivalent to Tesla’s automotive segment.

Effect of upcoming election on USA IRA tax credit

CFO: “And that is the way internally, also even when we’re looking at battery costs, yes, IRA, there are manufacturing credits which we get, but we always drive ourselves to say, OK, what if there is no IRA benefit? And how do we operate in that kind of an environment?”

Analyst take: The increase in EV sales in the US can be largely attributed to the IRA. It has significantly helped in reducing BEV prices. If IRA benefits are reduced or curbed following the upcoming US elections, brands like Ford, GM, BMW, Hyundai, Rivian and Volkswagen may get more adversely affected compared to Tesla. Tesla has over 50% share of the US EV market. Its efficient production processes, in-house development of major components and robust supply chain management enable it to lower the average selling price (ASP) of its vehicles and offer them at more competitive prices, even lower than some ICE vehicles.

Financial highlights

In Q2 2024, Tesla’s automotive sector revenue increased by over 14% YoY to reach $19.9 billion. Revenue from regulatory credits doubled from last year to nearly $1 billion, the highest level ever. The reduced ASP of Tesla models is one of the main reasons for the company’s less-than-expected revenue.

Income from other ventures such as energy storage deployment, charging networks, and additional services rose 54% YoY to reach $5.6 billion. Revenue generation from solar panels and energy storage reached over $3 billion, an 84% YoY increase.

During the quarter, Tesla’s gross profit amounted to $4.5 billion, marking a 24% YoY rise. This rise can be attributed to high energy storage deployments, increased Cybertruck deliveries, low vehicle and battery manufacturing costs and low raw material costs.

Outlook

Earlier this year, Tesla suggested that its annual growth would be modest due to constraints related to ASP reduction. Sales are expected to reach between 1.8 and 1.9 million units by the end of 2024. With the introduction of the Tesla Roadster and a new EV priced under $30,000, Tesla may see better sales growth than the current growth. Tesla also intends to diversify its revenue streams by advancing in autonomy and developing Optimus robots, as the automotive sales growth approaches a plateau.

BlackBerry QNX Enables Software Development in Cloud using AWS

As the complexity of software increases in the SDV era, the need to develop hardware and software separately is increasing.
The cloud was a means for collecting vehicle information or distributing software in the automotive environment, but it has now emerged as an integrated development environment that provides powerful resources anywhere in the world, even without a vehicle.
BlackBerry’s QNX and AWS are providing a software development package on the public cloud. Stellantis N.V. was able to use this to build a virtual cockpit platform and introduce infotainment features and apps with a development cycle 100x faster than before.

As the automobile market moves toward Software Defined Vehicles (SDV), the environment for automotive software development is becoming increasingly important. Since the software on each vehicle model has different hardware characteristics based on their unique operating systems (OSs), it is important to test the software by directly running it on the vehicle. However, building and testing software directly on the hardware target system involves security issues and high costs. Therefore, emulating and testing the relevant software virtually can save a lot of time and resources.

Various methods are being used to determine how realistic the vehicle software emulation can be. Generally, the actual target image working in the vehicle is deployed on a virtual machine in the development environment, which is then tested while running.

QNX announced the QNX Accelerate plan in 2023, which is a cloud-based method of distributing and deploying target images using AWS. Currently, three OSs and one hypervisor are listed as Amazon Machine Image (AMI) in the AWS Market place, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1. QNX products on AWS marketplace

Each of these AMIs can be launched and used as an instance with a hypervisor. It is also possible to run multiple different images simultaneously. The user connects the Eclipse-based IDE provided by QNX to the Cloud and makes developments based on these AMIs after creating an account and setting up the environment to use AWS.

Figure 1 shows BlackBerry IVY as an example of how the target image uploaded to the actual cloud and the target in the actual vehicle hardware can be tested equally. BlackBerry IVY is a cloud-based automotive software platform that can provide QNX OS, which can deploy not only targets but also images posted on AWS. The image on the left is running on AWS, and the one on the right is from an actual vehicle. This shows that development and testing are possible without an actual vehicle by using tools and environments and using the same image.

Figure 1. Parity between cloud IVY target and hardware IVY target
Source: Amazon.com

QNX currently releases software development packages using AWS so that partner companies that need immediate development can use them. There are also plans to share and update software development packages if OEMs wish to use other cloud-based development environments, such as MS Azure.

Stellantis N.V. is the leading player using software development packages. The company formed Stellantis Virtual Engineering Workbench (VEW) together with QNX and AWS and is known to have introduced infotainment technology 100x faster than before in the case of the virtual cockpit platform. Through a software-driven approach and deploying QNX hypervisor in the cloud, Stellantis N.V. was able to quickly build infotainment features and applications by replicating the experience in the cockpit and making changes based on real-time feedback.

Benefits

From QNX’s perspective, software development packages are shared periodically using AWS, making it easier to perform security patches and OS upgrades on vehicle models that use the same OS. Additionally, it is expected that quality management will be easy as modern software development methods such as continuous integration and continuous delivery (CI/CD) test-driven development can be equally applied.

On the partner’s side, AWS’ pay-as-you-go policy may be burdensome, but it is expected to be more efficient as it reduces large upfront hardware investment costs and allows planning of usage according to the project budget. Developers can use the same development environment anytime, anywhere in the world and develop software separately from hardware with accumulated experiences in real time without a physical hardware system.

In the context of OEMs and partners, ensuring reliability and safety is important. OEMs can update vehicle information and software development environments periodically using a cloud environment. Partners are also expected to be able to follow the OEM’s standardized development methods and quality management regulations. This cloud-based software development helps expedite infrastructure set up, enhance collaboration, shorten waiting times and improve software development efficiency.

Viewpoint

This new development will trigger more cloud-based software development for the automotive ecosystem. Cars will become more like consumer electronics or computers, similar to the evolution from feature phones to smartphones.
QNX is trying to approach developers and partners more easily through real-time updates and packages that are open to the public cloud.
Automotive OSs have traditionally been closed. QNX is working towards an open ecosystem, similar to the PC or smartphone development environment. This is a major step towards SDVs.

Meet Counterpoint Research at EV & AutoTech Innovation Forum 2024

Our Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal and Research Analyst Mohit Sharma will be attending the EV & AutoTech Innovation Forum 2024 on 25th July, 2024. Soumen will also be moderating a panel discussion at the event.

Title: Hardware-Software Integration & Emerging Roadmap in EV Charging Technology
Date: Thursday, 25^th July
Time: 15:00-16:00 IST
Venue: Aloft Hotel, Aerocity, New Delhi

Speakers:

Mr. Mukesh Kumar Bansal, Co-Founder & CTO TelioEV
Mr. Chanpreet Singh Sethi, Co-Founder & CEO, Bluwheelz
Mr. Vibhor Mittal, Chief Business Officer , Belectriq Mobility

About the Event:

The EV & AutoTech Innovation Forum is a prominent event in the Indian autotech industry. Organized by the team behind the IoT Innovation Conclave, which has been a pioneering forum for the IoT industry in India for the past 12 years, this forum has received positive feedback from numerous high-level attendees.
Now in its second successful edition, the EV & AutoTech Innovation Forum aims to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders. This includes leading EV enterprises, auto companies, OEMs and ODMs, electronics and sensor manufacturers, smart device infotainment producers, investors, and thought leaders in the auto sector from across India.

Click here (or send us an email at contact@counterpointresearch.com) to schedule a meeting with them.

5G, 5G RedCap to Dominate Automotive Connectivity by 2030

Shipments of automotive NAD modules for connectivity in vehicles to exceed cumulatively 700 million units from 2020 to 2030.
By the end of this decade, more than half of the vehicles shipped will embed 5G capability, driven by centralized architectures, digital cockpits and autonomous capabilities (ADAS L3+).
Qualcomm will remain the leader in automotive connectivity, capturing about half of the market by the end of this decade, while MediaTek will gain share in the near-term with its early mover advantage in automotive 5G RedCap chipsets.

Beijing, London, New Delhi, Jakarta, Boston, Toronto, Taipei, Seoul – July 11, 2024

The global automotive connectivity module and chipset market is projected to grow at a 13% CAGR between 2020 and 2030, with NAD module shipments set to exceed 700 million through the decade, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Automotive NAD Module and Chipset Forecast.

Commenting on the projected growth in connected vehicles, Research Analyst Subhadip Roy said, “We are now entering the Automotive 2.0 era, characterized by significant transformation across drivetrain (electrification), safety and mobility (autonomy), cockpit and infotainment (digital), all powered by a single thread of advanced connectivity enabling Software Defined Vehicles (SDV). Advanced 5G connectivity will catalyse this transformation with higher bandwidth, capacity and lower latency, enabling features such as real-time Battery Management Systems (BMS), the whole gamut of location-based services integrated with HD/AD maps and streaming infotainment. It will also enable low-latency C-V2X and data, sensor-assisted autonomous driving.

Roy added, “Currently, 4G Cat 4 access technology dominates the NAD module market, meeting the speed requirements of OEM telematic applications. However, with the growing need for next-generation SDVs, 5G will become the dominant technology for L3+ ADAS/ADS cars while 5G RedCap will replace 4G Cat 4 for L2 ADAS and below connected vehicles, mainly focusing on OEM telematics and light streaming infotainment.”

Commenting on the regional dynamics shaping the adoption of SDVs, Senior Analyst Parv Sharma said, “China has been at the forefront of the SDV era starting with electrification and digital cockpit as well as enabling autonomy features in most new vehicles. This adoption and scale have not only benefited China but the entire automotive value chain. For example, China contributed to nearly one-third of the total NAD module shipments in 2023 and eight out of every 10 vehicles shipped in the country were connected, which is estimated to reach 100% penetration in passenger cars by 2028. China also leads in terms of 5G adoption. 20% of the total NAD modules shipped within the country in Q1 2024 were 5G capable. Comparatively, outside of China, the penetration of cellular-connected NAD modules was close to 66% in 2023 and is expected to grow in the coming years.”

Commenting on key vendor dynamics, Sharma added, “Qualcomm leads the automotive connectivity chipset market and will maintain its leadership through 2030 with good traction within China as well as outside. MediaTek has expanded its share to rank second, despite a wide margin with Qualcomm. The company is expected to gain share helped by its growing pipeline with Dimensity Auto and 5G RedCap for automotive solutions. The share of Chinese chipset vendors HiSilicon, UNISOC, ZTE, ASR and others, is steadily growing due to local partnerships with NAD module and TCU vendors along with growth in emerging markets. Competition among the NAD module vendors is also shaping up nicely despite consolidation of the market over the years. Quectel, Rolling Wireless (along with Fibocom-Favalon) and LG continue to command the lion’s share of the NAD module market. Continental, Harman, WNC, AM Telecom and others will continue to grow steadily through specific partnerships and customer relationships in targeted geographies.”

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Volkswagen Invests $5 Billion in Rivian, Forms Joint Venture

Volkswagen has underperformed in the EV segment, losing share to imported brands such as Hyundai.
Volkswagen was recently forced to issue large scale EV recalls and updates in relation to software issues impacting core functionalities and safety features.
Rivian has yet to reach profitability and has been making strides to reach lower price tiers with its future vehicle lineup to widen its total addressable market.
Rivian’s new R1T and R1S feature a next-generation SDV platform with advanced zonal architecture and networking capabilities.

German carmaker Volkswagen has announced an investment of up to $5 billion in US-based EV startup Rivian, to be injected over a three-year period, in a deal that also includes the formation of a 50/50 joint venture (JV) between the two parties.

How does the JV help Volkswagen?

The JV, which is expected to be finalized in Q4 2024, will permit Volkswagen to license Rivian’s vehicle and software architectural intellectual property, helping the German carmaker improve networking and architecture on its future vehicles. The JV will also provide insights into the SUV and truck segments where Volkswagen has been underperforming as compared to its peers.

Volkswagen has been struggling to gain momentum with its ID electric vehicle (EV) lineup and has underperformed in the EV segment as compared to industry peer Hyundai Kia Group. The battery electric vehicle (BEV) market is becoming increasingly crowded with some players executing well on software and cost savings efforts. Volkswagen has not been one of those OEMs. Its US market share fell to 6% in Q1 2024 from 7% a year ago while Hyundai’s share in the region rose to 13% from 6%.

Source: Counterpoint PV Global PV Sales Data

Rivian’s Gen 2 R1T and R1S advancements in adopting a zonal architecture have allowed the company to reduce its unique electronic control unit (ECU) count to just 7 from 17 and remove 1.7 miles worth of wiring in the harness. This resulted in a 35% reduction in production cost by removing 500 parts from the design and assembly of Rivian’s R1 vehicles, according to Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe.

Rivian Architectural Improvements

Source: Rivian Investor Relations

What will this cash influx mean for Rivian?

Rivian has been in a fight to reach profitability. The Gen 2 vehicle architecture, materials sourcing changes, headcount reductions, and manufacturing improvements have helped propel Rivian in the right direction thus far. However, with the R2 and R3 vehicles in development, an influx of $1 billion by the end of 2024 will certainly help speed up time to market and development of its Georgia manufacturing plant in the near term.

Source: Data from Rivian Investor Relations

The initial investments will help Rivian ramp development and production of its R2 platform and development of the R3 vehicles. On the other hand, the long-term investments will provide the company with the flexibility to implement its long-term roadmap which was laid out in an investor call update after the joint venture was announced. In its future roadmap, Rivian teased an affordable mass market lineup. This investment from Volkswagen will provide a more attainable path forward for Rivian.

Rivian Vehicle Roadmap

Source: Rivian Investor Relations

Rivian is targeting the $45,000 price point for the R2 vehicles. The faster that Rivian can bring the R2 to market the better as this vehicle helps widen Rivian’s addressable market reaching lower income consumers and moving out of just the ‘luxury segment’. Rivian has also stated that the R2 vehicles will receive the full benefit of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. This comes at a time where the US consumer is still feeling the pressure of elevated inflation and high interest rates. The sooner that Rivian meets the US consumer where they are, the better.

Agreement details

Initial investment of $1 billion
- Allocated to provide capital to fund operations for R2 ramp at both Normal and Georgia midsize platform manufacturing facilities
- Initial $1 billion to be provided as unsecured convertible note that will convert into Rivian equity in Q4 2024
$1 billion equity investment in 2025 and an additional $1 billion in 2026
Additional $2 billion investment will be related to joint venture
- Will be split between a payment at the inception of the joint venture and a loan available in 2026 as per Rivian investor relations

Source: Rivian Investor Relations

Key Takeaways

Volkswagen is tapping into both the Eastern and Western Hemispheres to design its next-generation SUVs. Prior to this announcement, Volkswagen had formed a similar partnership with Xpeng to develop a new line of SUVs for the China market. However, in the face of new US and EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, Volkswagen’s partnership with Rivian will serve Western nations as well with its future BEV development and production. Volkswagen aspires to rival Tesla in the future. To do so, it must embrace an efficient zonal architecture with central compute solutions to address its recent software challenges and cut costs.

Rivian has been on a path to profitability, and this investment infusion will help accelerate that roadmap. It has fortified investor confidence with an immediate positive reaction from the market with shares up 23% the day after the announcement. The investment will provide Rivian with the flexibility to scale both its Normal and Georgia manufacturing facilities in the near term. In the long term, it will help Rivian execute its goal of introducing a mass market vehicle lineup. There are other potential synergies from this joint venture, from sharing of service facilities to the expansion of the Rivian Adventure charging network. Although those are yet to be announced, this partnership and investment leaves a lot of room for strategic growth where leadership sees fit.

For the overall market, this is a signal that OEMs are recognizing the benefits delivered by embracing advanced software defined vehicle architectures and networking. We expect to see similar moves by legacy OEMs going forward to capitalize on cost savings and enable new functionalities.

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