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China’s 2024 ADAS Market Shifting Gears to Level 3

  • Level 3 passenger vehicles are likely to arrive in meaningful global numbers this year.
  • China will be the main driver with its Level 3 passenger vehicle installed base exceeding 1 million by 2026 and shipments reaching 10% share by 2028.
  • Mercedes is the first mover globally, but Chinese OEMs are approaching fast.
  • Government support, issuance of multiple Level 3 testing licenses and advances in Level 2 across several vendors highlight rapid progress being made in China.
  • Friendly domestic environment will facilitate Level 3 autonomous driving offerings from large and small brands alike.

Beijing, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo – April 25, 2024

Sales of passenger vehicles (PVs) with Level 3 autonomy are expected to reach over 25,000 globally in 2024 with China, Europe and the US likely to see rollouts this year, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Autonomous Passenger Vehicle Tracker and Forecast.

Global Level 3 Autonomous Vehicle Forecast by Key Region
Source: Counterpoint Research Autonomous Vehicle Tracker and Forecast

China will be the main driver regionally considering the size and advanced state of its domestic PV market. Mercedes, being the first company to introduce Level 3 autonomy globally, is the first mover in this space, even as Chinese OEMs rapidly approach. “The government has always been a big supporter of autonomous driving technology, resulting in a mature and nuanced Level 2 ADAS environment,” said Research Analyst Shaochen Wang. “With the recent consolidation in regulation for higher-level autonomous driving, there have been multiple Level 3 testing licenses issued across the region, which is facilitating the healthy participation of a broad range of players both large and small – from solutions providers like Huawei to smaller EV brands like IM Motors.”

China Level 3 ADAS Testing Licenses
Source: Company Data

Chinese OEMs’ autonomous driving strategies remain consumer-centric in contrast to Tesla’s which is focused on enabling its Cyber Cab service with an in-house and consumer-owned fleet. “There is no right or wrong way as things are driven by culture,” observed Senior Analyst Ivan Lam. “US owners are likely to look at their cars more as a commodity, whereas in China, cars are still viewed very much as a luxury.”

Chinese OEMs are also parting ways in terms of technology, opting to adopt hybrid solutions which include Lidar and other sensor types. “Tesla has a big advantage in terms of mileage, but excluding Lidar sets the bar higher and increases risks significantly, regardless of how much training data there is,” said Research Analyst Mohit Sharma. “Having a more robust system will give Chinese OEMs an edge, at least in terms of hardware.”

As OEMs and solution providers continue to evolve hardware systems and expand training data, we expect China to reach an installed base of over 1 million Level 3 ADAS-enabled PVs on the road by 2026 and a shipment share of 10% by 2028.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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China Smartphone Sales Remain in Black on Huawei, HONOR, Xiaomi Outperformance

  • China’s smartphone sales grew 1.5% YoY and 4.6% QoQ in Q1 2024, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth.
  • Huawei stood out as the best performer among all OEMs during the quarter, enjoying 69.7% YoY growth; HONOR also saw double-digit growth.  
  • vivo took the top spot followed by HONOR and Apple.
  • Apple’s sales dropped 19.1% YoY in Q1 as Huawei’s comeback directly impacted the premium segment.
  • The market is expected to see low single-digit YoY growth in 2024. 

Beijing, Boston, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo – April 23, 2024

China’s smartphone sales grew 1.5% YoY in Q1 2024, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth, according to Counterpoint’s Market Pulse Service. Huawei stood out as the best performer among all OEMs during Q1, growing 69.7% YoY. Huawei’s growth was largely attributed to the successful launch of the 5G-capable Mate 60 series as well as its enduring brand reputation, helping it to gain a massive share in the $600+ premium segment. Despite Huawei’s comeback, HONOR still managed to grow 11.5% YoY in Q1 driven by its popular models, such as the X50 and Play 40, and its expansion in offline channels.

Counterpoint Research
Source: Counterpoint Market Pulse Service
Notes: OPPO includes OnePlus; Xiaomi includes Redmi; vivo includes iQOO; Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, “Momentum seems to be building on a recovery as China’s smartphone sales continued their growth trajectory and grew 4.6% QoQ in Q1 2024. The sales promotions during the Chinese New Year festivities were the biggest growth driver. The average weekly sales during the four weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year saw a robust growth of 20% when compared to a normal week, according to Counterpoint’s China Smartphone Weekly Model Sales Tracker.”

Further commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang said, “Q1 2024 was the most competitive quarter ever, with only 3% points separating the top six players in terms of market share. Smartphone OEMs compete fiercely during the festive period, finalizing various marketing and promotional strategies well in advance. In particular, Chinese OEMs, with their ample cost-effective offerings, capitalize on the surge in sales in the low-end segment as migrant workers purchase more affordable, budget smartphones when returning home for the holidays. This trend further narrowed the market share gap among major players.”

Commenting on OEM performance, Senior Research Analyst Ivan Lam said, “vivo gained the top spot this quarter with 17.4% share driven by strong sales of the Y35 Plus and Y36 models in the low-end segment and the S18 in the mid-end segment. HONOR ranked second with a 16.1% share, followed by Apple with a 15.7% share. Apple’s sales were subdued during the quarter as Huawei’s comeback has directly impacted Apple in the premium segment. Besides, the replacement demand for Apple has been slightly subdued compared to previous years.”

Looking forward, Lam saw the possibility of an iPhone recovery: “We are seeing slow but steady improvement from week to week, so momentum could be shifting. For the second quarter, the possibility of new color options combined with aggressive sales initiatives could bring the brand back into positive territory; and of course, we are waiting to see what its AI features will offer come WWDC in June. That has the potential to move the needle significantly longer term.”

Counterpoint Research estimates low single-digit YoY growth for China’s smartphone market in 2024. The advent of generative AI has already seen Chinese OEMs integrating such features into their flagship devices. We anticipate smartphone OEMs will continue to explore new AI applications, with these advancements further trickling down to the mid-end segment.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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TomTom Leads in Location Applications & Services Rankings

  • TomTom achieved the highest score in one of the most relevant sections for automakers.
  • HERE slipped to the second position with Google in third place.
  • TomTom led in Real-time Traffic, Navigation, Routing and Infotainment, while HERE led in Tracking and Positioning, and EV Services.

Seoul, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Taipei, Tokyo – April 22, 2024

Netherlands-based mapping company TomTom has topped the Location Applications and Services category of Counterpoint’s latest Location Platform Effectiveness Index. HERE slipped to the second position with Google in third place. The index analyses the capabilities and performance of over 25 of the world’s leading location and mapping players.

Counterpoint is publishing the analyses in sections. The first section covers the Location Applications and Services category, which accounts for 13 of the 80 key capabilities covered by the overall Location Platform Effectiveness Index.

Location-based services like navigation, traffic and infotainment play a crucial role in modern vehicles by enhancing the driving experience, improving safety and offering new conveniences.

In the latest analyses, TomTom scored the highest points in 4 out of the 13 sub-categories of the Location Applications and Services section. Vice President Peter Richardson said, “TomTom’s success is a combined effort of innovative thinking and pivoting strategically to open-source data and bringing a new wave of collaboration in map-making while challenging the industry status quo.”

Location Platform Effectiveness Index 2023: Location Apps and Services
Source: Counterpoint’s Location Platform Effectiveness Index, 2023

TomTom ranked first with a total score of 77.5 out of 100. The company led in four parameters – navigation, real-time traffic, routing and infotainment. TomTom also performed well on other parameters such as EV services and consumer apps.

HERE came second in the revised Location Applications and Services category, as new parameters like consumer apps, location-based services and payments were added in this edition. The company also scored the highest points in 4 out of 13 capabilities to reach a total score of 74.5 out of 100.

Google scored the maximum points on the consumer app parameter as Google Maps remained the undisputed leader for navigating from point A to point B, locating businesses or finding points of interest in a specific locality.

Navigation: TomTom scored the highest for navigation capability due to its hybrid navigation system solution that provides constant navigation via its unique approach of online and onboard navigation as compared to the cloud-only or traditional onboard navigation services in the market. Global automakers such as Stellantis and Volkswagen Group rely on TomTom for navigation software.

Real-time traffic: TomTom came out as the leader in real-time traffic services due to a rich collection of historical road and live traffic data available in 84 countries with over 600 million connected devices, compared to HERE’s coverage in over 70 countries with more than 180 million cars. TomTom Traffic is often the first choice for automakers like Ford and Volkswagen Group.

EV services: HERE scored the highest in EV services as the company added a new capability using machine learning (ML) models to predict the availability of charging points at the time of arrival of the EV, and a database of over 1.2 million charging connectors globally along with information on location and real-time availability. TomTom followed HERE with close to 1.2 million charging points mapped across 90 countries, out of which 800,000 provide real-time data.

Infotainment: TomTom leads in infotainment capabilities as the company offers Digital Cockpit, a dedicated open, flexible and modular infotainment software platform. This allows TomTom to offer the full IVI stack to automakers in one complete solution that powers navigation, voice assistant, location search and more. Google is the closest competitor that offers an entire IVI stack to carmakers, but the solution is not open or as flexible. HERE opted for a different strategic path and chose not to develop an infotainment platform.

The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Location Platform Effectiveness Index 2023 Part 1-Industry Overview and CORE Analysis’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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PC Market Back in Black in Q1 2024; AI PCs to Drive 2024 Growth

  • Continuing their recovery from an inventory correction cycle, the global PC market’s shipments grew around 3% YoY in Q1 2024.
  • The top-five brand rankings were unchanged YoY, with Lenovo and Acer remaining resilient.
  • Manufacturers are expected to promote AI PCs as their main products in the second half of 2024 as semiconductor companies prepare to launch SoCs featuring higher TOPS.
  • Counterpoint expects 3% YoY shipment growth in the full year of 2024, driven by the demand for AI PCs and a fresh replacement cycle.

Seoul, Beijing, Boston, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – April 18, 2024

Global PC shipments grew around 3% YoY in Q1 2024 after eight consecutive quarters of declines due to demand slowdown and inventory correction, according to the latest data from Counterpoint Research. The shipment growth in Q1 2024 came on a relatively low base in Q1 2023. The coming quarters of 2024 will see sequential shipment growth, resulting in 3% YoY growth for the full year, largely driven by AI PC momentum, shipment recovery across different sectors, and a fresh replacement cycle.

Global PC Shipments, Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 (In Million Units)
Source: Counterpoint Research

Lenovo’s PC shipments were up 8% in Q1 2024 off an easy comparison from last year. The brand managed to reclaim its 24% share in the market, compared to 23% in Q1 2023. HP and Dell, with market shares of 21% and 16% respectively, remained flattish, waiting for North America to drive shipment growth in the coming quarters. Apple’s shipment performance was also resilient, with the 2% growth mainly supported by M3 base models.

We view 2024 as the first chapter of the AI PC (including desktops and laptops), as 45% of the new laptops shipped during the year will be AI-capable. Commenting on generative AI laptops, Senior Analyst William Li said, “We believe the shipment and deployment of generative AI laptops will accelerate in 2025-2026, along with emerging generative AI functions and use cases, supported by chip vendors’ new processor platforms.”

Against the backdrop of normalizing inventory levels and the end of the replacement cycle following skyrocketing demand in both enterprise and consumer segments amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we believe AI laptops could act as a catalyst in driving the overall PC shipment recovery in 2024. Manufacturers are expected to start promoting AI PCs as their main products in the second half of 2024 as semiconductor companies prepare to launch SoCs featuring higher TOPS.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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GenAI-capable Smartphone Shipments to Grow Over 4X by 2027

  • GenAI smartphone share of overall smartphone shipments will reach 11% by 2024 and 43% by 2027
  • These estimates are higher than Counterpoint’s earlier forecast in December 2023 with the anticipated entry of Apple into the segment later this year.
  • Samsung, an early mover in the space, will lead GenAI smartphone OEM rankings for 2024, while Apple will likely lead in 2025.
  • Qualcomm will lead the AI SoC space in 2024, capturing almost half of all GenAI smartphone shipments, followed by MediaTek with a 13% share.
  • Two key price tiers will emerge – ≥$600 and $400-$599, accounting for 9 out of every 10 GenAI smartphones sold in 2024.

Seoul, Beijing, Boston, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – April 15, 2023

GenAI smartphone share of overall smartphone shipments will reach 11% by 2024 and 43% by 2027 to pass 550 million units in 2027 with 4X growth, according to an upcoming report, ‘GenAI Smartphone Shipments and Insights’, from Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone 360 Service. We expect the GenAI smartphone installed base to cross 1 billion by 2027. Against the backdrop of Apple’s anticipated entry into the segment later this year, these estimates are higher than Counterpoint’s earlier forecast of December 2023.

Counterpoint Research defines the GenAI smartphone as a mobile device that leverages large-scale, pre-trained generative AI models to create original content or perform contextually-aware tasks. We expect such devices to have multimodal capabilities, allowing them to process text, image, voice and other inputs to generate a variety of output and enable a user experience that is fluid and seamless. We expect the hardware specifications of such devices will likely evolve as the technology advances. But at present, a device should have hardware capabilities that are comparable to or exceed the performance of current flagship smartphones to effectively run generative AI models.

Research Director Tarun Pathak said, “More than 10 OEMs have launched over 30 GenAI-capable smartphones so far. AI in smartphones has been a key talking point since the start of this year, especially after the successful debut of the Galaxy S24 series, where Samsung has gained good mind share in marketing early AI use cases. We expect Samsung to lead GenAI smartphone OEM rankings in 2024. This is the second trend in the past couple of years where Samsung enjoyed an early-mover advantage; the first one being success of its foldables. The AI advantage will provide Samsung momentum in the mid-to-premium smartphone segment as GenAI features get recognized more broadly in coming years.”

Pathak added, “Apart from Samsung, Apple’s anticipated entry in the space will further help the segment’s growth. Once Apple enters, we expect AI to immediately become a must-have feature in all mid-to-premium smartphone launches starting 2025. However, the real differentiation will lie in the use cases as consumers are still evaluating potential impact of AI in their future devices.”

Global GenAI Smartphone shipment forecast
Sources: Counterpoint Research Smartphone 360 Service, GenAI Smartphone Shipments and Insights Report

Associate Director Mohit Agrawal said, “Smartphones of the future will be more personalized to cater to individual needs and preferences, and AI will play a central role in driving these personalized experiences. As OEMs differentiate themselves on AI positioning, the key here will be the evolution of AI use cases. Currently, these use cases include enhanced imaging capabilities, translation features, improved app experiences, content recommendations, creating more personalized content, and more. These use cases will evolve as the large language models (LLMs) will continue to grow in both size and efficiency. Counterpoint believes that the integration of edge (mobile devices) and cloud will be the mainstream model for generative AI in smartphones, and OEMs with an equally strong play in software capabilities, along with strategic industry partnerships, are likely to stay ahead of the competition.”

Going forward, we expect GenAI smartphones to hit an inflection point in 2025 as the devices permeate the broader price segments, especially the $400-$599 price tier. The ≥$600 and $400-$599 price bands will account for 9 out of every 10 GenAI smartphones sold in 2024. Leading chipset companies such as MediaTek and Qualcomm have already taken the lead in embracing generative AI smartphones. They have launched several mobile computing platforms that support multimodal large AI models on devices. We expect Qualcomm to lead in the AI SoC space in 2024, capturing almost half of all GenAI smartphone shipments, followed by MediaTek with a 13% share.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Follow Counterpoint Research

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2023 EV Battery Market Growth Exceeds that of EVs, Chinese Dominance Continues

  • 2023 global passenger EV* battery installed capacity grew 44% YoY
  • Average battery capacity installed increased by 4% YoY helping to extend driving ranges
  • Chinese suppliers continue to dominate; now account for over two-thirds of the global market
  • Long-term opportunities attractive for Korean, Japanese, European makers on tech breakthroughs, geo-politics  

Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, Mumbai, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London – April 11, 2024

Global battery installed capacity for passenger EVs grew by 44% YoY in 2023, according to Counterpoint’s latest Global EV Battery Tracker.  A key driver was increased average battery capacity per vehicle coupled with continued growth of EV sales at 38% YoY in 2023.

Global Average Passenger EV Battery Capacity (kWh) by Regions, 2022 vs 2023
Source: Counterpoint Research Global EV Battery Tracker

Average battery capacity continues to be an important metric, and expanding range, especially for mid-to-high EVs, is a priority for OEMs. “Across the US and Europe, long-range EVs are booming and this is what’s going to drive sales through the long term,” says Liz Lee, Associate Director. “We could have seen average capacities go even higher if not for the big expansion of entry-level EVs in China.”

Domestic battery suppliers are enjoying home field advantage and continued demand overseas to grab further market share.  Chinese battery makers grew faster than most others to account for more than two-thirds of the world’s EV battery capacity last year, with CATL and BYD the main beneficiaries of market share gains.

Key EV Battery Supplier Installed Capacity (GWh) Share, YoY Growth
Source:  Counterpoint Research Global EV Battery Tracker

In the short-term, OEMs are likely to continue the shift from performance-centered to price-centered EVs as the market slows, leveraging strategies to expand sales of cost-effective EVs with Chinese LFP batteries.

“This year we’re still forecasting double-digit EV growth across all regions which will help keep overall battery capacity buoyant,” says Lee.

For players like CATL, scale is a big competitive advantage but it also leaves the supplier more exposed to any slowdown in EV demand as well as potential efforts to limit growth in Europe and the US. “Long term we need to also consider further battery cost reductions on tech breakthroughs which, coupled with geo-political factors, could see more promising growth avenues emerge for non-Chinese suppliers,” states Neil Shah, VP of Research.

* EVs include BEVs (battery EVs) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid EVs).

The comprehensive ‘Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast by Powertrainand Global Installed Capacity of EV Batteries, Q4 2023’ reports are now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com.

Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

 

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Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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IDH/ODM Contribution to Overall Smartphone Shipments Climbs to All-time High in 2023

  • Independent Design House/Original Design Manufacturer (IDH/ODM) smartphone shipments remained flat annually in 2023 despite the overall smartphone shipments declining by 4%. But their contribution to the overall shipments reached record levels.
  • The global smartphone IDH/ODM market is dominated by Huaqin, Longcheer and Wingtech, which contributed to more than three-fourths of the total IDH/ODM shipments in 2023.
  • Emerging ODMs MobiWire and Innovatech saw a healthy uptick thanks to Transsion (TECNO, itel and Infinix), while TINNO and Chino-E saw an annual decline in orders.

Seoul, Beijing, Boston, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi – April 10, 2024

The global smartphone market saw a 4% annual decline in overall shipments in 2023. However, many of the brands outsource their smartphone design and manufacturing to Independent Design Houses/Original Design Manufacturers (IDHs/ODMs) to remain competitive in the cut-throat market. In 2023, the contribution from IDHs/ODMs to the overall smartphone shipments increased marginally YoY to reach an all-time high, showing an increase in outsourcing. The brands outsourcing parts of their portfolios to these IDHs/ODMs include Samsung, Xiaomi, HONOR, OPPO, vivo and others.

Commenting on the ODM market dynamics, Senior Research Analyst Ivan Lam said, “After years of consolidation and exits, the highly competitive smartphone market now comprises eight Tier-1 and Tier-2 ODMs which control more than 95% of the outsourced smartphone volumes. In 2023, Huaqin managed to take the top spot, primarily driven by a stable share of the top three OEMs in its portfolio. Longcheer, which took the second spot, gained good orders from vivo, HONOR and Lenovo group. Wingtech captured the third spot, growing a healthy 7% annually with design wins from Xiaomi, Samsung and HONOR.”

Research Analyst Alicia Gong added, “Among the Tier-2 ODMs, Tinno managed to hold its position despite an 11% decline in shipments. Notably, MobiWire grew a healthy 30% annually, thanks to the Transsion group (TECNO, itel and Infinix brands) orders. Similar was the case with emerging ODM Innovatech. Chino-E saw a double-digit decline after losing orders from other Chinese brands. Shenzhen-based Coosea group was a rising star with orders almost doubling annually.”

Counterpoint estimates the IDH/ODM shipments to grow 4% annually in 2024, slightly ahead of the overall smartphone market’s expected growth. The Tier-1 ODM players have expanded their partnerships with major smartphone brands over the last five years to help them remain profitable. The battle now shifts beyond the mid-tier segment to the high-tier and premium-tier segments where these ODMs would like to gain design wins. Further, with 5G penetration poised to increase this year and next, the ODMs’ role in bringing down 5G smartphone prices to below $100 will be important.

Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint Research’s market-leading ‘Global Smartphone ODM Report and Tracker’ is available for subscribing clients.

Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our in-depth research and insights.

You can also visit our Data Section (updated quarterly) to view the smartphone market share for WorldUSAChina and India.

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Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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India EV Sales Nearly Double in 2023, to Rise 66% in 2024

  • India’s EV* sales* nearly doubled in 2023, driven by rising consumer interest, government initiatives, infrastructure development, and concerns over climate change.
  • Projections for 2024 show EV sales rising 66% to constitute 4% of total passenger vehicle (PV) sales, driven by new entrants and government subsidies.
  • By 2030, EVs are expected to represent nearly one-third of India’s PV market, signaling a robust long-term growth trajectory in the country’s automotive sector.

New Delhi, Beijing, Boston, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, San Diego, Seoul, Taipei – April 5, 2024

In 2023, even as India’s passenger vehicle (PV) sales* grew 10% YoY, its electric vehicle (EV*) sales nearly doubled to account for 2% of the overall PV sales. This EV surge can be attributed to multiple factors, including increasing urban consumer interest, government initiatives, infrastructure development, and concerns over climate change.

With a strong portfolio and strategic tie-up with Uber, Tata Motors held more than two-thirds of the country’s EV market in 2023 but lost some share to Mahindra & Mahindra and BYD. Recording a 2476% increase with just one model in its portfolio, Mahindra & Mahindra was the fastest-growing brand in 2023, followed by BYD and MG Motor.

Mahindra’s growth can be attributed to its aggressive marketing efforts around the all-electric SUV XUV400 launched in 2023.

BYD, with just two models in its India line-up – e6 MPV and Atto 3 SUV, grew over 1500% in 2023. Despite belonging to the premium category, BYD secured a position among the top five EV brands in India, showcasing remarkable success in the growing EV market.

BYD’s recent launch of the Seal model is expected to further enhance the brand’s market presence and competitiveness, adding to the dynamic shifts occurring in India’s EV market.

EV Brands Market Share in India 2023 vs 2022
Source: Counterpoint Research’s India Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker
Note: Citroën entered the market in 2023

Outlook

According to Counterpoint Research’s India Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker, EV sales in India are expected to increase by 66% in 2024 to constitute 4% of total PV sales. Looking at 2030, EVs are expected to constitute nearly one third of the India’s PV sales.

Maruti Suzuki’s entry into the EV market is expected to shake up Tata’s dominance. Moreover, VinFast’s move to build a factory in India’s Tamil Nadu state highlights the growing interest and investment in EV manufacturing in the country. All this not only signifies increased competition but also reflects the evolving landscape of the automotive industry toward sustainable and eco-friendly technologies.

Commenting on the supply chain development, Associate Director Liz Lee added, “India’s EV landscape is on the cusp of significant growth. The rise in EV battery manufacturing, supported by key players like Ola, Reliance New Energy and ACC Energy Storage, alongside the Make in India initiative, will lower manufacturing costs and boost EV sales. Government initiatives such as the PLI scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cells (ACC) and the recent reduction in import duties on EVs over $35,000 to 15% are game changers. All this not only opens doors for Tesla but also signals India’s readiness to welcome significant investments and foster a new ecosystem for EVs and their component suppliers. It is a clear sign that India’s journey to become a major player in the global EV market is accelerating.”

Rising share of EVs in India's PV sales, 2023 vs 2030E
Source: Counterpoint Research’s India Passenger Vehicle Model Sales Tracker

Commenting on the market outlook, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “The EV ecosystem is in a fairly nascent stage. As the infrastructure and consumer traction develops, we will see the entry of newer players such as Tesla and fast-growing Chinese brands like Xiaomi, which will catalyze innovation and competition in the world’s fourth-largest PV market. Besides, while the conventional automobile manufacturing ecosystem is mature, the building blocks for a robust smart car manufacturing ecosystem, from the battery to infotainment to sensors to full ADAS/ADS, beckon. We will see players in the broader value chain prioritizing India’s market not only to target domestic consumption but also for technology R&D and export opportunities. This would span from the likes of Qualcomm and MediaTek designing and offering advanced auto components to BlackBerry providing safety and security software, to Foxconn reducing barriers for new entrants to India with its innovative MIH consortium-based ‘localized’ design and manufacturing model.”

*Notes:

EVs here include battery EVs (BEVs) but not plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs).

Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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Turnaround for Smartphone AP-SoC Market in 2024; TSMC to be Key Beneficiary of Node Transition, Premium Segment Growth

  • Growth: AP-SoC shipments will rebound 9% YoY in 2024 after two years of declines.
  • Driver: Advanced nodes will be the key driver in this growth due to the migration of Apple- and Qualcomm-powered flagships from 5/4nm to 3nm. TSMC will be the key foundry beneficiary in the long term.
  • Driver: 5/4nm offers support as OEMs switch to entry-level 5G from older nodes.
  • Outlook: MediaTek and Qualcomm will reap benefits from the 6/7-to-5/4 transition; Qualcomm will dominate through 2025.
  • Outlook: SMIC will gain some share in 6/7nm but advanced node challenges will persist.
  • Outlook: Key 3nm flagship transition likely to push H2 up. 2nm will be likely delayed till late 2026.

Taipei, Seoul, Hong Kong, Boston, New Delhi, London, Hong Kong – April 4, 2024

After two years of significant declines, the smartphone semiconductor market is likely to turn the corner, with 2024 smartphone AP-SoC shipments rebounding 9% YoY, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Smartphone AP-SoC Long-term Shipment Forecast by Node and Foundry. The key driver of this growth will be the transition from 5/4nm chips to 3nm chips across flagships, as well as expected growth in premium and ultra-premium smartphones. TSMC will be the key foundry beneficiary here in the long term.

AP-SoC Shipments 2024E

“With all the growth coming from the advanced nodes this is positive for TSMC through the long term” says Brady Wang, Associate Director for Counterpoint Research’s Foundry and Semiconductor 360 research services. “And with the surge in AI semiconductors the short term view looks even brighter.”

Supporting the growth of advanced nodes will be 5/4nm, which is set to become another long-term node as smartphone OEMs switch more of their portfolios to entry-level 5G, thanks to growth in emerging markets, growing consumer awareness, and rise in demand for 5G as a feature in line with expanding network coverage.

“For fabless, it is a given that both MediaTek and Qualcomm are going to be the big winners in the 4G-to-5G transition,” said Parv Sharma, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint’s Semiconductor 360 research service. “It is a good opportunity for MediaTek to capitalize on its leading-edge sweet spot, but we still see Qualcomm dominating through 2025 when it will have almost 50% share of the 5/4nm segment.”

SMIC will see increasing relevance in 7/6nm but will likely face challenges in any shift towards more advanced nodes as DUV equipment bans slow progress.

2nm continues to be elusive but will likely emerge in 2026 with the arrival of Apple’s iPhone 18 series.

*Note: We have updated the last sentence of this PR to reflect 2nm will likely emerge in 2026 with the arrival of Apple’s iPhone 18 series; it was originally stated as the ‘iPhone 19 series’.

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Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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