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2019下半年中国智能手机市场总结及2020年展望 ——5G商用及电商平台拉动整体市场回暖

2019年第三季度,中国线上市场依然活跃,线上销量占中国整体智能手机市场比例从2019年第一季度的24%上升至第三季度约27%

Top 6智能手机品牌线上整体份额达到84%;其中华为及荣耀双品牌线上市场份额高达46%,甚至超越苹果及小米OV市占率加总(38%

第四季度,预计中国市场线上份额将在电商节的带动下继续提升,荣耀、华为及苹果有望成为第四季度线上市场主要赢家。

5G商用有望成为2019年底至2020年中国市场反弹、负增长结束的最重要驱动力

 

Seoul, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Beijing, London, Buenos Aires, San Diego

 6 Dec 2019

        Counterpoint Market Monitor数据显示,2019上半年,受中国经济下滑、消费者换机周期延长等因素影响,中国智能手机市场萧条,整体出货量同比下滑约9%。第三季度,中国智能手机市场同比下滑5%,但环比增长3%,同比降幅相比前两季度有所缓和。第四季度,我们预计中国智能手机市场整体降幅将进一步减缓。整体而言,中国市场已从2019下半年开始逐渐回暖。2020年有望实现反弹,终止已持续9个季度的同比负增长态势。

我们认为,拉动下半年市场回暖的主要驱动力有两点:1)活跃的线上市场;25G商用。以下我们将对此做具体分析。

 

2019下半年中国线上智能手机市场分析

        2019年第三季度,虽然市场大盘下滑,但受暑期线上推广、电商平台折扣、品牌季促销、物流效率提升等因素影响,线上市场依然活跃。Counterpoint Online Smartphone Market Tracker数据显示,中国市场线上销量占整体智能手机市场比例从2019年第一季度的24%上升至第三季度约27%

品牌表现方面,Top 6智能手机品牌占据中国第三季度线上市场84%份额,相比2019年第一季度的79%有所增长。

1: Q3 2019中国线上智能手机市场主要品牌市场份额%

Source: Counterpoint Research Online Smartphone Market Tracker Q3 2019

(小米品牌包含红米,Vivo含iQOO,OPPO不含realme)

 

 第三季度主要品牌表现点评:

  • 华为品牌全渠道扩张策略效果显现,其领先优势延伸至线上,抢占26%份额,成为线上市场销量冠军。经历了对P系列及Mate系列多年的培育,华为已成为中国高端智能手机市场的领先品牌,其高端系列销量年年攀升,华为P30/P30 Pro也是第三季度线上市场热销机型中唯一的高端安卓系列。此外,华为产品组合完善,系列定位清晰,除高端系列外,华为的中端价位产品Nova 5 Pro、 Nova 5i及性价比产品畅享9/畅享Plus也深受消费者欢迎,成为线上市场热销机型。

 

  • 荣耀品牌2019年第三季度占据线上市场20%份额,为线上第二大智能手机品牌。荣耀品牌主要针对年轻消费者市场,在线上平台更为活跃。第三季度,荣耀与热门电竞游戏《和平精英》达成合作,主办了《和平精英》暑期挑战赛。荣耀9X作为比赛选手官方用机,其优异的性能,特别是在长时间专业游戏竞技场景中帧率稳定、画质清晰、散热快等特点,得以大力推广,获其目标消费群体认可。荣耀9X成为第三季度线上市场及中国整体市场Top 10畅销机型之一。除荣耀9X外,荣耀旗舰机型荣耀20及荣耀20i也为线上市场热销机型。总体而言,第三季度暑期及开学季拉动年轻群体换机需求,受年轻人喜爱及认可的荣耀品牌表现强劲。

 

  • 小米第三季度线上市场份额为14%,相比其年初的20%以上份额下滑严重。小米第三季度重点推广红米K20/K20 Pro及小米CC9系列产品,其产品平均零售价在2,000元甚至3,000元以上,较其早前热销机型红米7/Note7系列(平均零售价1,500元以内)高出许多。虽然小米第三季度线上推广及折扣力度依然强劲,但受市场大盘下滑及来自竞争对手高性价比产品系列的影响(如OPPO A系列、Vivo Y系列、Realme X系列等),小米市场份额下滑。

 

  • Vivo线上市场份额为10%,相比2019年第一季度(7%)有所增长。Vivo份额的增长主要源于其线上资源投入的增加及高性价比产品组合的强化。2018年,Vivo主要产品系列为Nex、X及Y三个系列。现阶段Vivo的产品系列包括Nex, X, S,Z,Y,U及子品牌IQOO;其中Z系列及IQOO系列优先针对线上市场,Z, S及U系列则是Vivo2018年底至2019年新增的高性价比产品系列。扩大线上投入以及强化高性价比价位段的策略让Vivo在整体市场低迷之际依然保持稳健销量。

 

  • Apple第三季度线上市占率为9%,与第一季度基本持平,但线上销量占苹果整体销量的比例显著提升。2019年1-8月,iPhone在中国整体市场的销量同比跌幅超过40%。7-8月份,即iPhone 11系列发布以前,苹果在中国市场“光环”衰退,高度依赖线上折扣促销产品以清理旧版iPhone库存。9月份iPhone 11系列发布后,苹果在中国的销量已反弹。

 

  • OPPO线上份额约5%,在主要品牌中线上占比较低。OPPO主攻线下市场,其子品牌Realme聚焦线上,并于今年4月正式进入中国市场。得益于在海外市场,特别是在印度及印尼市场的优异表现,Realme智能手机第三季度全球出货量同比增长超过800%。但在中国市场,Realme依然处于缓慢成长阶段。

总结而言,受益于华为全渠道扩张、年轻群体支持荣耀品牌、Vivo扩大线上资源及苹果积极的促销活动,2019年第三季度线上市场较为活跃。华为及荣耀双品牌线上市场份额高达46%,甚至超越苹果及小米OV市占率加总(38%)。市场加速整合、份额向大品牌倾斜的趋势在线上渠道同样显著。

 

第四季度线上市场展望:

展望第四季度,预计中国市场线上份额将在“双十一”、“双十二”等电商节的带动下继续提升,而手机厂商在线上市场的发力也将进一步让整体市场升温。

       根据刚刚结束的“双十一”电商节各平台官方销量数据,智能手机领域荣耀表现最为突出,华为及苹果次之品牌销量方面,荣耀获得今年“双11”手机品类全平台双料冠军:“天猫+京东+苏宁易购“全平台”手机品类双11当日销量冠军,以及双11期间(1日-11日)累计销量冠军;华为在天猫及京东平台双11期间(1日-11日)累计销量第二,苹果第三。型号销量方面,荣耀产品同时霸榜天猫及京东平台1-11日累计销量Top 10榜单中的7个席位,旗舰机型荣耀20及V20,热门机型荣耀9X及性价比机型荣耀Play 3等均进入Top 10热销榜单,荣耀强劲的产品力及品牌力在各个价位段的赛道上充分展现。除7个荣耀品牌机型外,iPhone 11亦表现突出,为双平台累计销量冠军;华为及小米各有一款型号进入双平台Top 10榜单。

按照此趋势,荣耀、华为及苹果有望成为第四季度中国线上市场主要赢家。其中荣耀及华为品牌线上份额预计不相上下,双品牌份额加总有望进一步提升,占据中国线上市场“半壁江山”。

 

5G商用对中国智能手机市场的影响

          活跃的电商市场带动了下半年整体智能手机市场的回暖,在此基础上,5G商用有望成为2019年底至2020年中国市场反弹、负增长结束的最重要驱动力。有关Counterpoint Research对5G智能手机市场及2020年品牌表现预测,请点击以下链接下载完整报告

2019下半年中国智能手机市场总结及2020年展望—5G商用及电商平台拉动整体市场回暖

 

Analyst Contacts:

 Flora Tang

flora@counterpointresearch.com

James Yan

james@counterpointresesarch.com

Mengmeng Zhang

mengmeng@counterpointresearch.com

Follow Counterpoint Research
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Flora is a Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research based out of Hong Kong. She started her career as an analyst for new market development with LeEco APAC, where she conducted market research regarding telecommunications, smart devices, internet and OTT business across APAC region. Furthermore, she moved to China Mobile International (CMI) to support globalization of the leading Chinese telecom giant, and help with strategic cooperation between CMI and global carriers. To pursue her line of interest in smart devices, IoT and mobile ecosystem, she joined Counterpoint Research team. In academics Flora holds a Master in Corporate Communications with the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Bachelor of Law in International Relations and Regional Studies with Sun Yat-sen University.

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